#bullcallspreads
$BA STC 4/18 370/400 BUCS at 8.50 BTO pre crashes on 3/12 for 15.00
#bullputspreads
$AMZN STO 4/18 1840/1845 at 1.35
Recent Updates Page 258
NFLX tight condor
#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX Apr 18th 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 8.35.
Risking 1.65 to make 5.00-7.00. Max win is about 8.35 but that’s only if I wait for expiration on Thursday. I’ll look to close this when (and if) stock price gets close enough to my 10-point center range for a profit.
NFLX often gaps big, but then sometimes will fade for the rest of the day (or two days). This is a smaller position as probability is lower and I don’t want to lose the max on a large position.
Rolling AMZN
#shortcalls
$AMZN BTC 4/18 1850 call and STO 4/26 1870 call at added 24.14 credit per contract. These are covered by 4/26 1760 long calls
A TRADE: Strangled it.
VFF STO 4/18/19 10.0 PUTS @.35 Expires Friday.
A TRADE: A goof, because…
A TRADE: A goof, because I’m bored. Stock is down because Citron said it’s going to a dollar.
VFF STO 4/18/19 11.0 CALLS @.55. 2 Days and 2.5 hours to expiration. ;>) Watching.
IBM dub cal
#Earnings Bought to open $IBM Apr18/Apr26 145 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Surprised I was filled below mid price… partial fill, may have to raise bid to fulfill my full position.
This has a 5% average move… tomorrow’s breakevens are showing to be precisely at 5%. So this has an even chance of working, but also an additional day to fade any large move.
A TRADE: Was going to…
A TRADE: Was going to sell the stock, but thought with 2 days to expiration, I’ll try and grab another .45. ;>)
AMD STO 4/18/19 28.0 ATM CALLS @.45 Covered
TRADES:
YETI BTO Several trades avg. @31.67
YETI STO 4/26/18 33.0 CALL @.95 COVERED
YETI STO 3/26/19 33.5 CALL @.85 COVERED
Rolling LABU BURL TNDM
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 4/18 64 call and STO 4/18 58.5 call at 1.00 credit. Stock at 57.33
$BURL BTC 4/18 160 call and STO 4/26 162.50 call at .11 debit. Stock at 161.83
$TNDM BTC 4/18 65 call and STO 4/26 66 call at 1.30 credit. Stock at 62.52
#Shorcalls Morning Sold MU April…
#Shorcalls Morning Sold MU April 18th 44 Calls for .10.
IBM earnings analysis
#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%
Avg (+ or -) 4.95%
Bias -1.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 144.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.68 to 151.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.87 to 151.13
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 131.24 to 156.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 133.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 8.36%
Bias 1.78%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 328.02 to 379.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 324.39 to 383.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 286.67 to 421.33
Based on DOWN max only (-13.1%): 307.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
T Puts / Roll TNDM Puts / SPX Campaign
#shortputs
$T STO 7/19 32 puts at 1.25 Thank you @jeffcp66 for the concept
$TNDM BTC 4/18 68.50 puts and STO 4/25 68.50 puts at .99 credit
#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 4/30 2790/2810/2970/2950 IC for 3.90. Following @jeffcp66
$SPX BTC 4/15 2830/2850/2940/2920 for .85 STO on 4/12 for 1.95 Thank you @jeffcp66
TRADES:
YETI STO 4/18/19 ATM 31.5 PUTS @.90
MDLZ BTO STOCK @50.21
SPX 15-dte
#SPX1dte Sold another roll: $SPX Apr 30th 2790/2810/2950/2970 condors for 3.80. (IV: 10.85% SPX: 2902)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX April 17th 2725/2750-2940/2965 condors for .50. Sold for 2.85 as a roll on April 1st.
UNH earnings analysis
#Earnings $UNH reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +3.55%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +4.73%
July 17, 2018 BO -2.60% Biggest DOWN
April 17, 2018 BO +3.57%
Jan. 16, 2018 BO +4.28%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +5.53%
July 18, 2017 BO +0.26%
April 18, 2017 BO +0.84%
Jan. 17, 2017 BO -0.70%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +6.90% Biggest UP
July 19, 2016 BO +1.30%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.10%
Avg (+ or -) 3.03%
Bias 2.48%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 227.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 215.83 to 239.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 220.61 to 234.39
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.9%): 211.80 to 243.20
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 221.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #closing DAL April 9,…
LABU
STO September 35 puts @ 3.20
SPX 9-dte
#SPX1-dte Sold $SPX Apr 24th 2900/2875 put spreads for 6.95. Aggressive ATM position in response to minor upside warning that fired Friday. If index has not moved higher by Wednesday, I will consider rolling.
(IV 10%, SPX: 2903)
JNJ earnings analysis
#Earnings $JNJ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 22, 2019 BO -1.44%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +1.94%
July 17, 2018 BO +3.54%
April 17, 2018 BO -0.92%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -4.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +3.43% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 BO +1.74%
April 18, 2017 BO -3.10%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.88%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO -2.59%
July 19, 2016 BO +1.71%
April 19, 2016 BO +1.57%
Avg (+ or -) 2.34%
Bias -0.02%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 136.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.62 to 140.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.06 to 139.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.3%): 130.46 to 142.04
Based on DOWN max only (+3.5%): 141.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 15th 2865/2885-2915/2925 condors for 1.00. Expire today (IV: 7.66%, SPX: 2904)
#earnings #closing KR March 6,…
Minor Upside Warning
#VIXIndicator fired this at the close. Last one we got was on March 13th, and it was good for a 1.75% move up from that day’s close to intraday high 6 days later, before we stalled and pulled back a little.
Have Good WE all
Have Good WE all
PNC up and out
#Earnings I played this one exactly right… slightly bearish lean. Today’s +3.1% day is the highest one-day move up after earnings since January 2013. So, expiring with 3.00 exercise cost, $PNC #IronCondor, sold yesterday for 2.00.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Apr 15th 2850/2830 put spreads and 2920 short calls for 1.40 total. Sold yesterday for 1.25. Leaving the 2940 long calls. Upside warning being reinstated today (VIX lowest since early October) and traded within expected move, so I’m out. May try to sell another same-day on Monday morning. The one from today is expiring:
SPX Apr 12th 2860/2880-2920/2935, sold for .80 this morning.
MSFT
#fuzzy
Apr 18 120/120/119 C/P/P $1.00
EWZ #supercharger
41/34 Apr 18 Puts $.67
RH #supercharger
117/119 Apr 18 Calls $1.05
FB #supercharger
177.5/180.0 Apr 18 Calls $1.36
Looking for 30-50% Profits on these!!
Econ Calendar for week of 4/15/19
Shortened week with Good Friday holiday.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG will call…
#pietrades
EOG will call out today at 97 with cost basis of 96.14
LNG 67 put rolled up to 68 and next week for 0.66 credit. Total credit now 1.22.
TQQQ batch 1 54.5 cc being assigned with cost basis of 56.39 for 1.89 loss. Was a lot worse in Jan.
LNG batch 2 67.5 rolled up to 68 and out to next week for 0.55 credit.
TNA 62.5 put rolled to next week and 65.5 for 0.85 credit
#lizardpies
EXAS is expiring for 0.62 credit per contract. I was trying to close it but the MM are being greedy. The spread on the put is 0-3.90 and they are not moving. I tried to roll/close for 0.2 but no dice. Ok, I will let it expire for full credit and not pay commission.
EXPE 113/130/131 decaying well. 1 more week should be able to close roll at 50%.
Looks like the largest theta decay on some of these OTM strangles/jade lizards occurs from 28 to 14 days. For instance the 113 put on EXPE is going for 1.25, 21 DTE 1 and 14 DTE 0.20. I may start looking at these from 21 or 28 days down to 14 days to recycle capital faster.
CVX
STO September 100 puts @1.40
WFC
STO November 40 puts @1.10
GS earnings analysis
#Earnings $GS reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Since expiration is not until next Friday, I checked 5-day moves and they are slightly bigger than the one-day moves, but not a huge difference.
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.28%
Avg (+ or -) 2.69%
Bias 0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.93 to 217.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 201.91 to 213.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 187.70 to 227.30
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 197.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
YETI BTO STOCK 31.63
EHTH
BTO May 17, 70/80 bull call spread at 3.30 for a very small trade.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX1dte Since I sold Monday’s condor yesterday, selling today’s today.
Sold $SPX Apr 12th 2865/2885-2920/2935 condors for .80. Tight leash… if we get a face-blasting rally I’ll back out.
Upside Warning probably reaffirmed
#VIXIndicator With a $VIX close at 13.54 or lower today, a”minor” upside warning will fire, reaffirming market’s upside bias in the absence of any significant pullback materializing. Should mean another leg higher next week.
Rolling BA GOOS Calls / Close T Puts EHTH BUCS BIIB BUPS / Early Assignment BA Put
#longleapss
$BA BTC 4/18 420 call and STO 4/26 390 call at 3.40 credit. These are sold against 1/2020 380 call
#shortcalls
$GOOS BTC 4/12 49 call and STO 4/26 51 call at even. Hope I am not cooking my own you know what.
#shortputs
$T BTC 4/18 31 puts at .05. STO at 1.60 on 1/24. Thank you @jeffcp66
#bucs
$EHTH STC 4/18 55/65 BUCS at 9.30. BTO 3/18 at 4.32
#bups
$BIIB BTC 4/18 215/225 BUPS at .20 STO on 3/27 on a drug test disappointment at 2.65
$BA Had a 400/410 BUPS STO for 2.00 410 assigned today and I just exercised the 400 for the net 8.00 loss
BKNG call spread
Not a typical trade for me, but I’m trying to find some high IV in this environment so I’m doing a small position on this. Sold $BKNG 5/3 (weekly) 1870/1880 bear call spread @ 2.60 credit. The stock did break above the 50 day moving average today but the downtrending 200 day moving average has served as pretty reliable resistance since August. The short strike (delta of 29) is above the 200dma, which is currently around 1862. A couple of notes of caution–I’m guessing on the earnings date since it hasn’t been announced yet officially, using previous reporting dates and market maker options pricing to infer something in the week of the 5/10 expiration so I went with the Friday before. Also, the liquidity on options on this stock is not very good, and especially illiquid in the weekly expirations so another reason to keep this trade small.
UVXY
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Taking some more risk off…
Bought to Close UVXY APR 18 2019 47.5 Call @ .18 (sold for 2.00)
#Coveredcalls NUGT bought to close…
#Coveredcalls NUGT bought to close my April 18th 23 calls for .03. Will look to cover up again on a bounce.
NVDA
STC NVDA #supercharger Apr 12 182.5/185.0 Calls $2.40 bought 4-8 for 1.95
STC RH #Supercharger May 17 110/115 Calls $3.15 bought Apr 8 for 2.40
TLT Put #Supercharger Apr 18 125/123 Puts $1.26 bought 4-1 for $.86
so far so good. I called them #supercharger but they could be called #bitties
and MarketTide is helping
NVDA
#ShortPuts #IRA – Bought to Close NVDA APR 26 2019 165.0 Put @ .25 (sold for 3.01)
TRADES:
AMD STO 4/12/19 28.0 ATM PUTS @.45 Expires tomorrow. Want the stock a little cheaper.
CZR STO 4/18/19 9.5 ITM PUTS @.40
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1ste Sold $SPX Apr 15th 2830/2850-2920/2940 condor for 1.25 (IV 7.23%, SPX 2890)
With low IV and sideways market, placing today’s trade a bit earlier and more aggressively than usual.
STZ
STC 192.5/190Puts #supercharger $1.60 opened 4-8 for $1.18
found this with my new MarketTide.
PNC (slightly) bearish condor
#Earnings Sold $PNC Apr 12th 124/127-128/131 #IronCondor for 2.00.
Risking 1.00 to make 2.00. Sightly bearish due to its recent history.
Be wary of the banks?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-spring-thaw-in-store-for-banks-11554908159
PNC earnings analysis
#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Comparing 1-point-wide, 3-point-wing #IronCondor trades, PNC comes out with a much better R/R than does $JPM. PNC has a slightly lower average move, but weighted toward downside.
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%
Avg (+ or -) 1.16%
Bias -0.94%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 128.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 124.74 to 132.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.01 to 129.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 121.33 to 135.67
Based on UP max only (+0.7%): 129.43
Open to requests for other symbols.
JPM earnings analysis
#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
April 13, 2016 BO +4.23% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 1.30%
Bias 0.14%, no significant directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 106.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 104.08 to 108.92
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 107.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.2%): 102.00 to 111.00
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 103.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
Expiration
BBBY
BTO #Fuzzy Apr 18 19.5C-19.5P+19.0P $1.16
Max loss 1.66 Profit unlimited, chart looks good
UVXY
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Making room for the next sale…
Bought to Close UVXY APR 12 2019 47.5 Call @ .05 (sold for 2.00)
#pietrades AMAT STO the 9…
AMAT STO the 9 DTE 41.5 put at 0.70. Will let assign if ITM or roll depending on where it is next week.
SPX 1-dte call side closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX April 10th 2900 calls for .10. Closing before FOMC minutes released at 2p ET. Condor sold for .80 yesterday.
Getting out of my LYFT
Bought to close $LYFT 5/17 80/90 BeCS @ .60. Sold for 1.45 on 4/4.
A TRADE:
YETI STO 4/18/19 31.5 CALLS @.80 Gave it to me without haggling, stock probably going up. ;>)
NTES
Following Fuzzball with a small twist. I am going to take a chance on the earnings on May 13th.
BTO June 270 call @ 2.25 x1
STO June 290 call @11.40 x1
STO June 250 puts @ 8.75 x2
A TRADE:
SYNA STO 4/18/19 38.5 CALLS @.35
This market is going no…
This market is going no where and difficult trading
A TRADE:
AMD BTO STOCK @28.0
NTES
#ShortPuts #IRA – Biggest loser on my watchlist today. Selling a little more aggressively than usual but still at the expected move and at the 50ma and down in congestion. Most importantly, this is the week prior to earnings. 30 days out and just prior is one of my favorite sales. Get good decay and still have the earnings volatility to roll (or sell) into.
Sold 1 NTES MAY 10 2019 250.0 Put @ 3.80
18.8% annulized…
Morning Yesterday I closed my…
Morning Yesterday I closed my MU April 12th 45 Calls for .01 as they wouldn’t trade any lower. I have an order in to sell the April 18th 44 Calls at .35.
A TRADE:
NTNX BTO STOCK @39.18
A TRADE:
YETI STO 4/18/19 30.0 PUTS @1.45 Not for the faint hearted.
BBBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBBY reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55% Biggest UP
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC +3.38%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC +0.74%
June 22, 2016 AC +1.50%
April 6, 2016 AC +0.32%
Avg (+ or -) 9.74%
Bias -5.99%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 18.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.52 to 21.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.06 to 20.74
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 14.93 to 22.87
Based on UP max only (+16.6%): 22.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
Jeff
Have you experimented with Dbl Cal like Option Slam calls Double eagle?
Doug Robertson did these when he was with John Carter.
LABU
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – I’m short a DITM covered call out in June so turning it into a covered strangle with a put sale. Hoping this takes some heat. Filled immediately so maybe could’ve done better.
Sold 1 LABU JUN 21 2019 45.0 Put @ 2.65
Closed Early SPX OKTA LULU / Rolled TNDM / Short Calls GOOS
#spxcampaign
BTC 4/12 2935/2019 BECS at 2.00 STO at 3.41 Thank you @jeffcp66
BTC 5/17 75 put at .80. STO 1/22 at 7.70. Thank you @jsd501 for following the chart and sharing.
$LULU BTC 4/18 170/175 BECS at .80. STO 3/28 at 2.18
#rolling
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 4/12 68.50 and STO 4/18 68.50 put for additional .53 credit
#shortcalls
$GOOS STO 4/12 49 call at .60 (covered)
A TRADE: I call it…
A TRADE: I call it a covered combo mambo strangle. ;>) = Long stock, short a put and a call.
NVTA BTO STOCK @24.97
NVTA STO 4/18/19 25.0 CALLS @1.00
NVTA STO 4/18/19 25.0 PUTS @1.05 3 Day’s and an hour to expiration.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 10th 2825/2845-2900/2925 condors for .80. (IV: 8.99%, SPX: 2877)
UVXY call spread
Sold $UVXY 5/24 45/55 bear call spread @ 1.34
A TRADE: Boring day.
AMD STO 4/12/19 28.0 NTM CALLS @.30
T Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Re-loading for earnings…
Sold T APR 26 2019 31.5 Puts @ .51
Tradestation issues
Obviously they do not understand options. Received an immediate margin call notice on my QQQ spread I opened yesterday. Telling me I need $2000 per spread even though I was long the 175 QQQ 2020 and short next Friday 184.5 calls. No risk since my long is a lower strike than the short and I still have a positive cash balance.
Anyway, apparently this changed 2 years ago from what the margin dept. told me. Stick with TOS or the other platforms that understand how to calculate option risk. Had not done spreads in this account in a while so FYI!!
With that said, closed the QQQ #fuzzy for basically the cost of commissions, out $24. Now I can’t trade until tomorrow because they reset cash values at midnight.
The more I try other platforms the more I realize how good TOS is :).
Options Bistro 