For rKnight52 Just saw your post from a few days ago regarding HIIQ. Thank you. TOS had the earnings date as2/27 initially, so when the stock cratered I assumed poor earnings, and not a lawsuit. I appreciate the information. Have a great week.
Arthur K. HONKHONK81
#pietrades
EOG batch 1 96.5 put rolled out next week to 96 for 0.16 credit. Cb 93.63 if assigned.
EOG batch 2 96.5 rolled out a week for 0.43 credit. CB 93.91 if assigned.
LNG 65.5 rolled out next week to 65 for 0.12 credit . Cb 63.59 if assigned.
TRIP 54 CC. Was assigned early Tues night so sold the 54 cc for next week for 0.96. Cb 53.03 and will let assign if ITM.
XBI 83/86/87 #lizardpies closed for 0.97. Total credit 3.22 over 3-4 weeks
AXLN 125/131/13 #lizardpies closed for 1. Total profit 1.37 over 3 weeks. It took off to the upside.
QQQ 171.5 sold for 0.75.
SQ 75.5 put STO for 0.83 credit for 3/8.
EXAS 3/15 87.5 put sold for 1.15
ERX 22 cc rolled next week for 0.3 credit. Cb 21.23
TQQQ 54 cc at 56.79, need to stay ahead of the rolls.
FAS 57 cc rolled for 0.40 cb now 54.77.
TQQQ 52 cc at 57 cost basis. Will be rolling.
#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled for 0.24 cb now 7.48.
GILD 67.5/69 cb 6.51
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.44 credit. Cb 12.49
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.27. Cb 12.29.
Busy few weeks. Sun is out, headed outside.
$PANW I made a mistake yesterday when I legged into what was supposed to be an April iron condor. I erroneously went into March on the bear call spread side and April on the bull put spread side. I got a bit lucky with today’s pullback in the stock since the March options are decaying much faster than April so I was able to realize a quick 50% profit. I took the opportunity to roll the call spread (Mar 15 265/275) down and out to Apr 18 260/270 for 2.16 credit. Position is now an Apr 18 iron condor 230/220 BuPS + 260/270 BeCS. Total credit taken in so far is 4.76.
#CoveredCalls – Rolling to capture the divvy of .63 and will probably let the stock go prior to next earnings unless it really pulls back to a better roll level. Basis 39.10 at that point…
Rolled STX MAR 08 2019 41.5 Calls to MAR 22 2019 41.5 Calls @ .10 credit
#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly This trade worked last quarter, and with positive bias in $SPLK I like it. Still, the stock is a bit extended so I see it as riskier than last quarter.
Bought $SPLK March 1st 137/142/145 Broken wing CALL butterfly for 1.20. buy (1) 137, sell (2) 142, buy (1) 145
(stock at 137.00 at time of trade)
Trade has no upside risk. Max loss, debit paid (1.20). Max gain: 3.80 (if pin at 142). Capped gain: .80 if above 145. Goal will be to close for profit during the day when price passes through the 142 area. If it explodes higher or gaps lower, trade can be ignored for exercise to cancel out (or, if above 145, close all to avoid exercise fees). BUT if price ends day between 137 and 145, you WILL BE ASSIGNED if you don’t close the necessary options. I can help if you follow this trade.
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 41.0 CALLS @2.60 Delta .44
OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.0 PUTS @.50 Delta .26
Jeff are you still holding this?
#Earnings — $FL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +14.90%
Aug. 24, 2018 BO -9.17%
May 25, 2018 BO +20.15%
March 2, 2018 BO -12.72%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +28.16% Biggest UP
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -27.92% Biggest DOWN
May 19, 2017 BO -16.65%
Feb. 24, 2017 BO +9.37%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO +0.60%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +11.04%
May 20, 2016 BO -6.45%
Feb. 26, 2016 BO -4.31%
Avg (+ or -) 13.45%
Bias 0.58%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 52.30 to 64.70
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.63 to 66.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 42.03 to 74.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
STO Feb28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x4
BTC Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .05 x8. Profit $210
BTC Feb 28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. Profit $50
BTC Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x6. Profit $150
Total profit $410
#spx1dte
#Earnings — $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC +2.56%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC +7.73%
Avg (+ or -) 8.05%
Bias 3.80%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.42 to 149.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 126.90 to 149.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 113.31 to 162.69
Open to requests for other symbols.
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .25 x6
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x8. Profit $170
Full position for today.
These narrow-width condors will eventually bite me. For now with low vol/ATR, they’re working well.
#spx1dte
#earnings SQ
Yesterday sold April 65/90 strangle for 3.28, bought today for 2.13
Sold $SQ Apr 18 70/60 BuPS for 1.65
Out for flat minus commissions. BTO @ .40. STC @ .40
#dubdubcal
#Earnings – Sold SQ MAR 1 2019 83.0/78.0 Bull Put Spread @ 2.76
OSTK STO 3/1/19 19.5 PUT @1.06
#earnings SQ
SQ Sold April 18, 60/95 strangle for 3.28
MNST bought March 1/8,54/62 double calendar for .28, thanks Mama and Jeff
OSTR STO 3/1/19 22.0 CALLS @1.00 2 Days and 1 hr. to expiration. ;>)
OSTK BTO STOCK 21.19
OSTK STO 3/1/19 21.0 ITM CALLS @1.40 Expires Friday
#Earnings #LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $SQ March 1st 85 calls for 1.08. Against my 2020 110 long call LEAPs.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 28th 2735/2755-2820/2835 condors for .80. (IV 10.1%, SPX 2794)
Bot MNST Mar 1/8 62 call cal and Mar 1/8 54 put cal @ .20 (EM strikes)
Bot MNST Mar 1/8 58 call cal and Mar 2/8 58 put cal @ .20 (ATM strike)
Total cost for four calendars: $40
Thanks to @jeffcp66 for continuing to trade this strategy after I abandoned it.:-)
#DubDubCal
#Earnings — Bought to open $BUD Mar01/Mar08 75 #DoubleCalendar for .48. Looking at the daily chart, BUD is not the king of big moves. I’ve said it all.
$BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
July 29, 2016 BO +2.79%
May 4, 2016 BO -2.98%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO -2.38%
Avg (+ or -) 3.85%
Bias -0.90%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.07 to 78.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 72.11 to 77.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 67.97 to 82.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings — Bought to open $MNST Mar01/Mar08 58 #DoubleCalendar for .23, .246, and .25.
$MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +2.47%
April 29, 2016 BO +12.81%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC -1.74%
Avg (+ or -) 5.55%
Bias 0.31%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.07 to 61.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.78 to 61.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 49.63 to 66.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
BTC SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @ .05 x2. STO @ .35 x2. $60 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .35 x4. $120 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
Total profit $280
#spx1-dte
OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.0 NTM CALLS @.65 Just for the premium. Expires in 2.5 days.
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 NTM CALLS @4.50
Building another short-term SPX position
STO Feb28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x4
BTC Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .05 x8. Profit $210
BTC Feb 28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. Profit $50
BTC Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x6. Profit $150
Total profit $410
#spx1dte
HIIQ BTO STOCK @37.75
#Scalping – I did not trade this…woulda coulda shoulda…this is the entry I look for. A big move to a round number and the printing of the reversal. Would be a safe entry with stop beyond the “roundy”.
SFIX BTO stock to cover short calls @27.45
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 33.0 PUTS @1.70
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 CALLS @2.90 Stock reported & crashed
TRADES: Yesterday, couldn’t post because program wouldn’t let me????
PBYI STO 3/1/19 29.0 CALLS @1.08
SQ STO 3/1/19 72/67 BuPS
Sold $PANW Apr 18 265/275 bear call spread for 1.49
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Feb 27th 2755/2735 put spreads for .20. Would have allowed to expire but I have to be away from my desk for a time today. Order in to close the 2820 short calls for .05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.
#LongCalls #LEAPS – The incredible becomes “incredibler”. I’ll continue selling 20 -25 cents per week indefinitely. Feels like a member of the family now!
#Earnings — $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC +8.48%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -11.38%
May 7, 2018 AC +7.84%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -27.23% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -20.10%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -1.08%
May 10, 2017 AC +5.58%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -18.13%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC +9.99%
Aug. 5, 2015 AC +10.00% Biggest UP
May 6, 2015 AC -7.90%
Feb. 26, 2015 AC -6.34%
Avg (+ or -) 11.17%
Bias -4.19%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 78.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 72.38 to 84.62
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 69.73 to 87.27
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.2%): 57.12 to 99.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings #IronCondor Bougtht to close $AZO March 1st 940/945 call spreads for .35. Leaving put spread to expire or shorts to close for .05. Condor sold for 2.30 on Monday.
Apparently, as the kids like to say, my maths wasn’t working yesterday.
When I rolled the adjusted position (from Mar 41.50/42 strangle to Apr 40/46 strangle), I hadn’t calculated that I already had a small profit in the position. At that point I wouldn’t normally have rolled since that would have been a defensive move. Should have just closed it out yesterday. Got a few cents more profit today so I decided to close the whole thing out.
Bought to close $MU 4/18 40/46 strangle @ 3.53. Total premium taken in with rolls/adjustments was 3.91, so a .38 overall profit.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2735/2755-2820/2835 condors for 1.10. (IV: 10.67%, SPX 2796)
#earnings GS
Took a beating on this one. Jan. 15, sold a Feb. 15, 155/175/180/200 IC. rolled to March as GS stayed up. It goes ex-div tomorrow, don’t want to be short 100 shares at 180 with the stock at 200, and have to pay the .80 dividend, negative $836 on everything.
$CAT gapped down this morning after the downgrade but some buying has come in. Stock has been in an uptrend with higher lows all year. Sold $CAT Apr 18 130/120 BuPS for 1.62.
#ShortPuts #IRA – I was looking at May 140-145 but decided to go more aggressively in April and keep the sale prior to next earnings. Nice having the roll/covered call possibility with the extra earnings premium.
Sold BIDU APR 18 2019 150.0 Put @ 2.87
Looking at recent support holding after the positive reaction to earnings. Sold $M Apr 18 23 puts @ .72.
#Earnings — $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
May 26, 2016 AC -12.36%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC +5.20%
Avg (+ or -) 8.54%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 233.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 217.69 to 248.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 213.09 to 252.91
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 176.73 to 289.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings — $EOG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -4.24%
Aug. 3, 2018 BO -2.79%
May 3, 2018 AC -1.16%
Feb. 28, 2018 BO -5.16% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 3, 2017 BO +1.50%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO -2.26%
May 8, 2017 AC -0.05%
Feb. 27, 2017 AC -0.93%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -0.30%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +7.02% Biggest UP
May 5, 2016 AC -3.17%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC -1.45%
Avg (+ or -) 2.50%
Bias -1.08%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 94.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 90.14 to 98.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 92.14 to 96.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 87.87 to 101.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
Rolled March 15 30 call to April 18, 30 call for .93 bringing cost basis down to 32.09, assigned at 38, stock currently at 30.
#coveredcalls
$LABU STO 3/1 60 call at 1.75. Sold after the big surge up today. Not sure if it will hold. If I get called away basis is 47 and I am happy camper. If it goes up to 100 next week still a happy camper, just not the happiest camper.
$ETSY STO 3/15 65 calls at 2.35. Part covered, part naked. Naked more exciting. Earlier in day sold some of stock.
$TNDM STO 3/1 50 calls at 2.65 They report soon and I have too large a position. If taken away I am fine. If not I will sell calls again.
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – One late fill…
Sold UVXY MAR 22 2019 55.0 Calls @ 1.10
#CoveredCalls – Rolling one out and up…
Rolled LABU MAR 08 2019 52.0 Call to MAR 29 2019 54.0 Call @ .15 credit
Rolled $MU Mar 15 41.50/42 strangle out to Apr 18 40/46 strangle for .35 credit.
History so far:
1/29: March 33/42 strangle sold for 1.92 credit
2/6: Rolled 33 puts up to 39 puts, staying in March, for 1.00 credit
2/20: Rolled 39 puts up to 41.50 puts, staying in March, for .64 credit
2/25: Rolled March 41.50/42 strangle out to April 40/46 for .35, widening from 1/2 point to 6 points with the deltas (put/call) at 31 and 38. The fact that earnings come between March and April expiration allowed me to make this roll.
Now I’m just looking for this thing to slow down a bit. Total credit taken in 3.91 so my breakevens are now 36.09 and 49.91, a pretty wide range for the stock to bounce around between now and earnings at which point I’ll have hopefully closed the position for a profit.
#SPX1dte As a roll from the stopped spread today: Sold $SPX March 1st 2715/2740/2845/2870 condors for 2.40. If possible I will close with 60% of profit a day or two early. (.10 delta, 12.5% IV, SpX 2801)
SLDB STC STOCK 10.26 A gift.
PYX BTO STOCK @25.33
NIO BTO STOCK @9.03
Sold March 15, 22(put)/25/25.50 for .73, stock at 24.60, recent low of 23.95. I have 100 assigned shares from a while ago. Thanks for the data Jeff.
Closed most of my IWM, QQQ, and SPY calls for doubles and triples. Opened on Feb 5. Still holding one lot each.
Rolled my TNA, TQQQ, and TNA stock replacement structures (SRS) back down to 85delta long/35 delta short. This is the fourth roll down on TNA. Locked in a profit with no risk on current position. UPRO needs one more roll. TQQQ a little slower but more than 50% covered.
#UpW
Starting up my short-term SPX ICs again.
STO SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @.35 x2 based on hitting resistance in 2810 area today.
STO SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @.25 x2 based on well-defined price range box
STO SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .25 x2
BTC SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @ .05 x2. STO @ .35 x2. $60 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .35 x4. $120 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
Total profit $280
#spx1dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Feb 25th 2815 calls for 2.75. Holding the longs to sell if we go higher.
This is my first loss on a short 1-dte since Jan 22nd. And again, losses are about 1x-3x the wins, so not difficult to make up.
Rolled March 65 calls to June 21, 70 calls for a credit of 2.90,trying to stay ahead of this rally.
#ShortCalls -This was a naked short call that went ITM in December. Rolled it way out and up slightly. Finally closing it for a profit. Can now move the call sales back to nearer term (if we ever get any more volatility)…
Bought to Close UVXY JUN 21 2019 57.0 Call @ 3.75 (sold for 4.00)
#spxcampaign
STO 1 MAR 2019 2725/2705 BuPS at $0.45
#spxcampaign
STO 28 FEB 2019 2745/2735 BuPS at $0.40
#LongCalls Sold $SPY Mar 8th 277.5 calls for 4.95. Bought for 1.72, avg price. Still holding more.
#spxcampaign
STO 27 FEB 2019 2755/2735 BuPS at $0.50
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Stocking up again to sell against later…
Bought UVXY APR 18 2019 90.0 Calls @ .30
#Earnings — $SHAK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day results had HIGHER extremes, meaning stock often continues in same direction after first day).
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -13.88% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -11.88%
May 3, 2018 AC +18.01% Biggest UP
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -7.71%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -3.36%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -5.45%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.20%
March 1, 2017 AC -2.63%
Nov. 9, 2016 AC +10.67%
Aug. 10, 2016 AC -6.19%
May 12, 2016 AC +9.74%
March 7, 2016 AC -11.83%
Avg (+ or -) 9.21%
Bias -1.28%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 47.81 to 58.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 48.12 to 57.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.0%): 43.45 to 62.55
Open to requests for other symbols.
Closing out all longs here as $SPX is moving towards the 2820ish target. I think there is more upside for $PYPL, $SQ, $IBB but would rather sell too soon. Going to give myself the gift of being 100% cash the rest of today and tomorrow, then revisit the markets on Wednesday.
Closing out all longs here as $SPX is moving towards the 2820ish target. I think there is more upside for $PYPL, $SQ, $IBB but would rather sell too soon. Going to give myself the gift of being 100% cash the rest of today and tomorrow, then revisit the markets on Wednesday.
#Earnings — $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day results had roughly the same extremes).
Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +17.08% Biggest UP
May 11, 2016 BO -15.16%
Feb. 23, 2016 BO +3.04%
Avg (+ or -) 9.71%
Bias -1.21%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 24.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 22.22 to 27.18
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 22.30 to 27.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 20.48 to 28.92
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Sold $AZO March 1st 855/860-940/945 condors for 2.30. Fairly close to 1:1 R/R, but only at the average historical move, so definitely risky.
#Earnings — $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day results were actually less extreme, meaning extreme moves were faded after first day).
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO +2.47%
March 1, 2016 BO +2.06%
Avg (+ or -) 4.37%
Bias -2.35%, negative bias on earnings (1-day), but 5-day results show no bias… extreme negative moves were faded over the following days.
With stock at 900.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 853.07 to 946.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 860.65 to 939.35
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 793.44 to 1,006.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
#markettide Spoke with Bryan this morning. They are rolling out version 3 either this week or next. He told me it maxes out TOS so if you have a slower computer like my laptop you may be better off staying with version 2. However version 3 is supposed to have scanning and my desk top has the power to handle it. He also said thanks to everyone at the Bistro that picked it up. The scanning should give live time signals!
#pietrades
ALXN Rolled 2/22 #lizardpies to 125/129/130 for 1.42 credit. cb 123.88 if assigned
EOG 98.5 put rolled down to 96.5 for 3/1 for 0.50 credit, batch 1. Second batch went through at 0.15 (tradestation issues). Cb 94.28 if assigned. Earnings next week.
LNG 65.5 put rolled earlier in week. Cb 64.21 if assigned
TRIP 57 put rolled out to 3/1 for 0.35 credit. 53.99 if assigned. If still ITM this week will roll it out 43 DTE and down.
XBI #lizardpies rolled out to 3/1 and adjusted to 83/86/87 for 0.30 credit. Cb 82.40 if assigned.
ERX 22 cc 3/1 for 21.53 debit and cost basis.
TQQQ 54 cc in 3 weeks at 56.79. Trying to stay ahead of the rolls until break even then will let it assign and start over.
TQQQ 52 CC at 57.00. Same
FAS 56.6 cc rolled up to 57 3/1 for 0.40 credit. Cb 54.77.
EOG batch 2 rolled out to 3/1 for 0.15 cb 94.34 if assigned.
#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.24 credit. cb 7.48.
XBI 80/80 cb 12.56
LNG 50/60 cb 12.93
GILD batch 2 67.5/69 rolled out 43 DTE for 0.45 credit. Cb 6.51.
Tradestation 10 has some huge memory requirements, that was my issue with it not working. I spent 2 hours with Tech sorting out the issues. Bottom line, you need a 10gb memory chip to run version 10. If you don’t have that stay with version 9.5 and they will continue to support it. Option station pro requires less power on that version as well. However, you have to uninstall all previous version and re-install it for the 9.5 version to work correctly. Ghost files from the other version interferes.
I am trying to figure out a way to separate my accounts from the service accounts. May take me a little while to figure out an easy template. In the meantime will probably only have time to post on the weekends. Once I can easily separate them should be able to update on a more regular basis.
Also will be doing more buy writes for #pietrades depending on directional signals. Better returns than just selling puts if I have a upward bias. The other option is more ATM or ITM puts if I think it is headed higher.
Hope everyone is doing well and staying dry or at least having fun with some snow:)
Just wet here.
#optionsexpiration
$LABU 54 call (covered)
$TNDM 50 call
#calledaway
$NFLX 362.5 call
I forgot to post these.
STO June 21, 40 puts @ 4.00
STO June 21, 35 puts @2.60
#Earnings – Couldn’t watch the market until the close Friday. Caught a quick look at an article about Google and some new gaming stuff they’re developing so booked the BIDU early just in case.
Bought to Close BIDU FEB 22 2019 167.5 Put @ .70 (sold for 2.93)
#earnings #optionsexpiration
$NTES 217.5 put STO at 3.07. Thank you @fuzzballl for the jade lizard. It worked flawlessly.
#earnings Closed Early
$NTES BTC 237.5/232/5 BECS at .20 STO 2/20 at 2.28 completing @fuzzballl lovely lizard.
$FLR Double calendar 38 short straddle. BTC at .95. STO 2/21 at 2.70 Thank you @jeffcp66
#shortputs Yesterday
$HIIQ STO 3/15 40 put at 2.81
Have a great WE
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 25th 2735/2755-2815/2830 condors for 1.05. (IV: 7.3%, SPX 2788)
Expiring today: Feb 22nd condor, sold yesterday for .90
Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade.
Sold KHC Apr 18 32.50/37.50 strangle for 1.88 credit with the stock centered at 35.00.
