Rolled the 55 puts in January 2019 out to January 2021, 45 puts for a credit of 5.55
Recent Updates Page 278
TQQQ
In my IRA, rolled December 21, 49 calls out to January 4, 49.5 calls for a credit of .35 cents. I am long the 60 calls in 2021 but now only need 9.33 cents to break even each week from January 4
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Even though UVXY is down today, it’s still historically high so booking and re-selling. Hoping to add another on any decent pop.
Bought to Close UVXY NOV 30 2018 60.0 Call @ .24 (sold for 4.40)
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 7 2018 70.0 Call @ .42 (sold for 4.10)
Sold UVXY DEC 14 2018 60.0 Call @ 2.25
#ironcondor CRM TastyTrade idea, sold…
#ironcondor CRM
TastyTrade idea, sold Jan. 18, 105/115/155/165 for 1.57.
#earnings #shortstrangles DLTR Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstrangles DLTR
Sold Dec. 21, 70/95 strangle for .97, right at the max 1 day ranges.
BOIL
#BearCallSpreads – Adding one. Sold the first one into the panic for 4.27. Gonna be hard to match that…
Sold BOIL MAR 15 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spread @ 3.00
DG
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Just for safety booking a small gain on the weekly sale. I’ll reload for earnings next week…
Bought to Close DG NOV 30 2018 110.0 Calls @ 1.70 (sold for 2.00)
DLTR earnings analysis
#Earnings $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO 2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO 5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO 0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO 0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO 8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO 12.77% Biggest UP
March 1, 2016 BO 2.21%
Nov. 24, 2015 BO 6.62%
Avg (+ or -) 7.76%
Bias -1.28%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 83.30 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 77.28 to 89.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 75.64 to 88.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 69.26 to 94.74
Open for requests on other symbols.
TQQQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $TQQQ Dec 7th 51.5 calls for 1.25.
LABU
I rolled the rest of my 61 calls in December 14, to January 18, 65 calls for a credit of .70 cents.
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings I’m including this one because of my interest in a long straddle. The cost of an ATM straddle is about 2.60, which would be about a 15% move in the stock, which is its AVERAGE move over recent quarters. I’ll consider whether to sell in the last hour.
$ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO 11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO 23.90%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO 17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO 8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO 13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
March 2, 2016 BO 3.64%
Nov. 20, 2015 BO 25.03% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 15.00%
Bias 2.41%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 17.25 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.60 to 19.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.66 to 19.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (25.0%): 12.93 to 21.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Still working on this new approach… thought I’d share my big error on today’s spread.
I sold the $SPX Nov 28th 2590/2610-2710/2730 for 1.15 yesterday at 1:38p ET, when SPX was at 2672.
After selling, the SPX creeped higher into the close. Even so, my call spread side did NOT increase much. With the threat of a gap up opening, and a slow rise into the close, I could have closed the calls for about .70, and let puts expire today, for an overall profit on the trade, same day. But it didn’t rise enough to hit my stop, so I opted to stay in.
That turned out to be only a minor error: Consider taking profits same day if volatility drops enough in the last hour to exit with decent profit, and erase overnight risk. But, in this case, the gap up this morning wasn’t bad, and I could have closed at the open for a small loss.
Further more, my call side DID hit its stop this morning, when the expected move touched my 2710 short calls. This means I should have exited, and COULD have exited for a profit on the fade back down to 2685 area. But I didn’t. And as it bounced, I was not focused…. I should have realized the volatility risk with Powell’s comments, but I didn’t and was focused on record keeping and other non-trade issues.
Now I’m 10 points ITM. Faced with possibility of a chunky loss if there’s no fade. Don’t know how I’ll roll yet.
1. Take partial profits if they present themselves early.
2. Follow rules even if you believe that waiting for better exits will work.
3. Focus on market events you KNOW are coming. Don’t get distracted or complacent.
Not sure if there is…
Not sure if there is anything wrong with the site or is it just no posts? Last one was 2 hours ago.
CRM closed
#Earnings Closed $CRM 138/143 call spreads for .51. Closed short 118 puts for .04. Leaving long 113 puts as lottery ticket.
Condors sold yesterday for 1.09.
#earnings #closing #shortstrangles WB CRM Yesterday…
#earnings #closing #shortstrangles WB
WB Yesterday sold Dec. 21, 45/75 strangle for 1.45, bought today for .70.
CRM Yesterday sold Dec. 21, 105/145 strangle for 1.73, bought today for 1.20.
I’ve been using max move strikes from Jeff’s info, going out in time to get over 1.00 in premium, just a couple have bombed.
Fed’s Powell, and other market movers
Busy day; market movers with red dot.
Closed Z door
#Earnings #Assignment Closed remaining $Z stock, selling at 34.90. Cost basis 32.55. Waited for a couple weeks for stock to return to profit zone, and exited all this week.
Since we are on experiment…
Since we are on experiment discussion below again, here is one I have been paper trading. A twist on #pietrades. If we need a new term we could call them #lizardpies.
So obviously with the market rout all my #pietrades went ITM and to prevent a meltdown in margin I converted them all to #fuzzy. Which is great, has controlled the volatility and still have 111 weeks to manage them. But as @fuzzballl points out below, they are expensive. Cheaper than stock but my EXPE puts are now trading at 22.40 and 19.50. Not chump change.
The #pietrade idea is sound for income generation and even some capital gains long term as long as you sell the call ATM or OTM once assigned the stock. You also are typically only selling 1 side and as Karen the supertrader (now scam artist) figured out, selling the other side is what really improves long term returns and consistency. She may have been using some creative accounting but the idea is sound and has been proven by tasty trade.
So here is the tweak I have been playing with. When you set up the trade, start it as a #jadelizard but set it up ATM. For example with XBI currently at 78.02 I would sell the 10 DTE 78 puts naked (cash secure) and then sell the 78/79 call credit spread. Total credit 2.55. No upside risk, downside break even is 75.55 which is lower than where I probably would have just sold the put.
3 possible outcomes
a: below 78 assigned shares on the put at 78 but cost basis 75.55. Can sell a next week call or call credit spread if you think rebound, then uncapped upside
b: Between the strikes max profit and you may be assigned on the call but can exercise your long call if needed.
c: above 79 everything cancels out and you keep the credit minus $1.
Here’s a graph on a 10 lot.
I have been trading it on paper and it would have had better loss control on the #pietrades than straight put sales the last 2 months.
Thoughts, holes in the strategy, other ideas to tweak it or make it better? If you wanted to be more conservative could sell strangles OTM instead or straddles ATM on the short sides but then less credit. Since my premise is income, I am trying to bring in as much credit as possible on the front end.
CRM trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $CRM Nov 30th 113/118/138/143 condors for 1.09. Leans slightly bullish.
Long Calls, LEAPS and a Fuzzy twist…
I’ve got a couple experiments going on that are kind of interesting. They came out of long term positions where the weekly calls got run over. I booked the LEAP calls for gains and then rolled the run over weekly calls into bull put spreads and continued selling against them.
While doing this I’m beginning to wonder if that would be a reasonable way to play something long term without having to buy anything. (nothing out of pocket 🙂 🙂 )
For instance let’s look at WYNN. A stock that’s pulled back a lot with great weekly premium.
How about selling a Jan 2021 ITM 140/110 bull put spread for 18 bucks. 30 wide for 18 bucks so the max risk is 12 dollars. Sell weekly calls against the spread for the next two years only needing to cover the 12 dollars to have a risk off trade. What could happen long term?
1. Stock rallies then all good (assuming weeklies aren’t in trouble)
2. Stock tanks but you easily cover the risk with weekly sales.
3. A combination of both where selling just 50 cents a week makes 44 dollars profit at the end no matter where the ITM spread ends up.
I think I like these since they can be done without any cash outlay and the minimum required to cover the risk is considerably less (Jan 2021 LEAP calls are 25 dollars so over twice the risk of the ITM spread). Profit is “sort of” capped but that’s ok. The real money is in the weekly sales anyway.
Whaddya think?
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Nov 28th 2590/2610-2710/2730 condors for 1.15. Expires tomorrow.
#coveredputs #shortstock #rolling CLR Nov….
#coveredputs #shortstock #rolling CLR
Nov. 14, sold short 100 shares at 45.94. Nov. 15 sold a Nov. 23, 46 put for .60, Nov. 20 rolled it to Nov. 30 for 2.56, rolled it today to Dec. 7, have net 185 in premium, CLR is at 44.33.
#earnings #shortstrangles CRM Sold Dec….
Sold Dec. 21, 105/145 for 1.73, thanks again Jeff.
Gartman
#earnings #shortstrangles WB Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstrangles WB
Sold Dec. 21, 45/75 for 1.45, thanks for the data Jeff.
Sold more Z
#Earnings #Assignment Sold more $Z stock at 33.50. Assigned with cost basis of 32.55.
LABU
Rolled my 55 calls out to January 18, 63 calls for a credit of .90 cents. I get my .15 cents per week and a better strike price. I still have to roll the December 14 calls, to January 18 calls.
REGN
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Still selling against Jan 2021 ITM bull put spreads to reduce basis if I eventually end up with the stock.
Sold 1 REGN DEC 14 2018 380.0 Call @ 2.55
WB earnings analysis
#Earnings $WB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 8, 2018 BO -4.04%
May 9, 2018 BO -14.19%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO 9.59%
Nov. 7, 2017 BO 0.07%
Aug. 9, 2017 BO 1.12%
May 16, 2017 BO 24.96% Biggest UP
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -16.01% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC 7.34%
Aug. 8, 2016 AC 12.48%
May 11, 2016 AC -1.12%
March 2, 2016 AC 9.48%
Nov. 18, 2015 AC 1.98%
Avg (+ or -) 8.53%
Bias 2.64%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 59.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 52.46 to 65.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 53.97 to 64.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (25.0%): 44.27 to 73.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
#coveredcalls AXDX Sold Dec. 21,…
#coveredcalls AXDX
Sold Dec. 21, 12.50 call for 1.30, stock at 13.00. I was assigned shares with a cost basis of 20.
#shortputs #pietrades ORCL Sold Dec….
#shortputs #pietrades ORCL
Sold Dec. 21, 46 put for 1.01, earnings Dec. 12.
XBI
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Sold XBI DEC 21 2018 85.0/95.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .63
RTN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Glad I sold all those new positions yesterday…LOL
Bought to Close RTN DEC 7 2018 187.5/197.5 Bear Call Spreads @ .08 (sold for .70)
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC 1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC 2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC 0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC 3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC 3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC 4.13%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC 11.03% Biggest UP
Nov. 18, 2015 AC 4.25%
Avg (+ or -) 3.24%
Bias 1.86%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 124.50 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 115.24 to 133.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 120.46 to 128.54
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 110.77 to 138.23
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte expired
#SPXcampaign Expired: $SPX Nov 26th 2560/2580-2690/2710 condors, sold Friday for 1.15.
A few more UVXY
#VXXGame
Closed my other $UVXY March 112 call for 3.25. Sold for 7.00.
Closed UVXY Jan 18th 95 call for 1.87. Sold for 6.90.
Bought (2) Dec 7th 100 calls for .18. Released 4.5K in buying power.
Closing OLED
Bought to close $OLED Dec 21 70 puts @ .30. Sold for 1.45 on 11/12.
SPX Short period
STO SPX 2535/2515 BuPS 30 NOV 2018 at $0.60
STO SPX 2750/2770 BeCS 30 NOV 2018 at $0.55
Sold Z stock
#Earnings #Assignment Sold to close $Z stock for 32.80. Was assigned with a cost basis of 32.55. Sold a 4th of my position now. Will look for higher prices near the close or tomorrow to sell more. No desire to be long or sell calls.
MO
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Can’t resist this one. I’ll take a shot for 4 cents a week. Half size to begin with…
Bought to Open MO JAN 15 2021 55.0 Calls @ 4.75
Sold MO DEC 14 2018 55.0 Calls @ .54
MORE TRADES:
Z 11/30/18 STO 31.0 PUTS @.45
Z 11/30/18 STO 34.0 CALLS @.35
DBX 12/7/18 STO 24.0 CALLS @.50
RTN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Already up nicely on the earlier sale and some other spreads. Adding again with stops on the others. Basing these sales on resistance and the expected move.
Sold RTN DEC 21 2018 185.0/195.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .73
LABU
STO December 14, 61 calls @.50 cents. I own the 115 calls in 2021 so at least I have 2 more years to collect premium. This was a bad trade but I plan on staying with this one until expiration. I only need .15 cents per week to break even.
TRADES: Some not timely.
SFIX BTO STOCK @25.30
PLCE A 123/120 BuPS @.75
PBYI STO 11/30/18 24.0 CALLS @.75
PBYI STO 11/30/18 25.0 CALLS @..50
DBX STO 11/30/18 22.5 CALLS @.40
DBX STO 11/30/18 23.5 PUT @.80
AMD STO 11/30/18 20.0 CALLS @.43
#longputspread SPX BTC 2670/2660 puts…
#longputspread
SPX
BTC 2670/2660 puts for $6.75 and $7.50. Nice gain for half day’s time. I entered at $3.50 and $4.50.
UVXY prep
#VXXGame – My current view on the market into year-end: one more shove lower, hopefully with a panic dive toward 2500. Then, higher into year end and January.
I making a couple of $UVXY moves to free up some buying power so I can sell higher-premium calls on that dive.
Bought to Open UVXY Dec 21st 140 calls for .12. I have more long calls than short ones… they are all far OTM but will help manage the chaos should UVXY decide to shoot up to 100 on the panic.
Bought to Close UVXY Jan 18th 112 call for 1.30. Sold for 5.25.
Bought to Close UVXY March 15th 112 call for 3.70. Sold for 7.00, avg price.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 7th 2720/2745 call spreads for 5.80.
AZO
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Trade repair I entered on May 25th as a 1×1 LEAP position. Long up 135 points but blocked by weekly. Rolling the weekly out to earnings but not up. Taking the max downside protection in case May 22nd or Oct 17th repeats itself. Sweet spot would be a selloff to my short call strike. (an Oct 17th repeat! LOL)
Rolled AZO NOV 30 2018 742.5 Call to DEC 7 2018 742.5 Call @ 5.18 credit (great fill with my 4.25 offer 🙂 🙂 )
DUST
RTN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – This is one I’ve decided not to take out to 2021. Pretty boring so gradually covering the 2020 position.
Bought to Close RTN NOV 30 2018 187.5/197.5 Bear Call Spreads @ .04 (sold for 1.08)
Sold RTN DEC 14 2018 185.0 Calls @ .86
#longputspread SPX BTO Nov 26…
#longputspread
SPX BTO Nov 26 2670/2660 puts for $4.50, added $3.40 looking for reversion to mean to R3 2659 TODAY.
#longcallspread SPX quick trade Nov…
#longcallspread
SPX quick trade Nov 26 2660/2670 for $5, sold few minutes after for $5.50, I expect price to return to R3 2659 from price I entered 2663+. Sold too early, but profitable!
OLED
#ShortCalls – Sold OLED NOV 30 2018 94.0 Calls @ .85
#assignment AMAT Assigned on a…
#assignment AMAT
Assigned on a Jan. 50 call, cost basis of 47.39, rolled this out last June.
EWW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – These were oversales so closing a little more aggressively…
Bought to Close EWW NOV 30 2018 43.5 Calls @ .03 (sold for .38)
UNG
SSO TNA TQQQ UPRO
Now the proud owner of shares in all the above via short puts. Buying weekly put flies and selling calls or call credit spreads to cover cost of put fly. Using profits to buy more shares on down days. So far so good. This strat is keeping me out of trouble and allowing me to focus on family for a while.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/26/18
Link to chart: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=26&month=11&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
UVXY
VXX call closed
#VXXgame BTC $VXX Dec 21st 50 call for .77. Sold for 3.50 on July 11th.
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 26th 2560/2580-2690/2710 for 1.15. Expires Monday.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX 2600/2620/2705/2725 condors for .20. Sold for .95 on Wednesday.
REGN
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Still selling against Jan 2021 ITM bull put spreads to reduce basis if I eventually end up with the stock. Orders sitting at a nickel forever with no sign of a fill. Bumped it up just a little and filled. These were over sales against the position so risk reduction also.
Bought to Close REGN NOV 30 2018 387.5 Call @ .15 (sold for 1.80)
Bought to Close REGN NOV 30 2018 390.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.50)
EWW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Booking and selling a little more and while this thing is in the crapper I’ll pay a buck for another year of selling…
Bought to Close EWW NOV 30 2018 44.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .40)
Sold EWW DEC 21 2018 43.5 Calls @ .40
Rolled EWW JAN 17 2020 49.0 Calls to EWW JAN 15 2021 49.0 Calls @ 1.10 debit
Rolling WTW
Rolled $WTW Nov 23 50 puts down and out to Dec 21 49 puts @ 1.30 credit with the stock at 47.95. Total premium taken in now 2.60 so my breakeven has been reduced to 46.40.
Music to watch the ticks by
A classic for a dull trading day…
Only 1 trade today
#fuzzy
EXPE rolled the 125/125 put spread down to 120 for net debit of 0.95 bringing cost basis up to 13.18. Fair trade off as I can collect more credit on rolls now ans still have 111 weeks to manage. It was too far ITM to collect any decent credits on rolls.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Going to burn off some of these calories now.
See you all Friday!
#shortcallspread Couldn’t resist one more…
Couldn’t resist one more expiring today with 1 hour to go
BeCS 2670/2680 for 0.75cr. 2662 rising at time of sale. Turned down not much later.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of…
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!
SQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $SQ Nov 30th 66 calls for 1.15
Closing more WHR
Taking more of this off. Now I’m just short Dec 110 puts.
Bought to close:
$WHR Dec 21 105 puts @ .59. Sold for 1.55 on 7/24.
$WHR Jan 18 95 puts @ .49. Sold for 1.25 on 10/3.
$WHR Jan 18 100 puts @ .75. Sold for 1.85 on 7/25.
O.T.
Happy turkey day to everyone.
Options Bistro 