#ShortPuts #IRA – Sold LABU APR 18 2019 45.0 Put @ 2.70
Recent Updates Page 278
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX March 6th 2760/2740 put spreads for .40. Stop was breached earlier so I watched for a bounce opportunity. Sold yesterday for .95.
Short Puts LABU TNDM
#shortputs
$STO 3/15 59.50 puts at 1.60
$LABU STO 4/18 40 puts at 1.65
KR earnings analysis
#Earnings — $KR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 6, 2018 BO +3.21%
Sept. 13, 2018 BO -9.92%
June 21, 2018 BO +9.74% Biggest UP
March 8, 2018 BO -12.39%
Nov. 30, 2017 BO +6.07%
Sept. 8, 2017 BO -7.50%
June 15, 2017 BO -18.89% Biggest DOWN
March 2, 2017 BO -4.33%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO +3.28%
Sept. 9, 2016 BO +0.63%
June 16, 2016 BO -0.67%
March 3, 2016 BO -7.01%
Avg (+ or -) 6.97%
Bias -3.15%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 28.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 26.65 to 30.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 26.79 to 30.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 23.36 to 34.24
Based on Max UP only (9.7%): 31.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX Mar6 IC closed for profit
BTC SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
BTC SPX Mar6 BuPS 2740/2735 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
BTC SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .25 x4. Sold @ .25. Profit $80
STO SPX Mar6 BuPS 2760/2755 @ .25×4. Pending GTC order @ .05
BTO SPX Mar6 BePS 2765/2760 @ .50 x1 to convert one BuPS to bearish fly. Will keep converting BuPS to flies if price continues down.
BTO SPX Mar6 BePS 2765/2760 @ 1.00 x1 to create another fly. Moved BE on downside to SPX 2757, BE on upside to 2765 and overall max profit cut from $80 to -$70.
Flies closed for $120 loss.
Last two BuPS 2760/2755 expired for $50 profit.
Net profit for all spreads $210
LABU
STO September 30 puts @2.45
BURL earnings analysis
#Earnings — $BURL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
I’m posting this one because it has a remarkably bullish response to earnings. Also, in a very long weekly squeeze. Will probably do a bullish butterfly, or maybe try my first #JadeLizard.
Nov. 28, 2018 BO +12.78%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.86%
May 31, 2018 BO +7.11%
March 8, 2018 BO +5.84%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.51%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +1.36%
May 25, 2017 BO +4.90%
March 2, 2017 BO +6.66%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +15.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +3.12%
May 26, 2016 BO +7.44%
March 3, 2016 BO -2.78% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.86%
Bias 5.00%, very strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.81 to 181.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.04 to 179.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 142.83 to 197.17
Based on Max DOWN only (-2.8%): 165.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
NIO BTO STOCK @8.35 Day Trade
ANF closing, DLTR not
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close half of $ANF March 8th 21.5 calls for 3.40 and 3.80. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 2.94. Holding the rest to see how high we can go.
DLTR 95 #DoubleCalendar, front week premium not going down much yet so sitting on this one for awhile.
CRM and SQ
#Earnings Bought to close $CRM March 8th 150/152.5/175/177.5 condors for .23. Sold for 1.15 yesterday.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $SQ Mar 15th 79 calls for 1.00
Short Put PYX
#shortputs
$PYX STO 3/15 25 put at 1.25
$PYX STO 4/18 25 put at 2.01
Trying to get to a high with cannabis premium
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 6th 2740/2760-2815/2835 condors for .95. (IV 9.35%, SPX 2792)
Howdy all. I thought I…
Howdy all. I thought I would pop in to see what y’all are up to. I see MamaCash is doing 11-hour trades. I think I saw her in the Base Camp trading room. Here’s a link if you want to take a 30 day trial for $7. Please let me know if you sign up. www.basecamptrading.com.
ANF straddle, DLTR maybe
#Earnings #LongStraddle Bought $ANF March 8th 21.5 straddle for 2.94. Avg Move on earnings: 14.7%. I need a 13.7% move to breakeven.
Also trying for a #DoubleCalendar on $DLTR. Only if I can get filled for .40. Low probability, since it moves decently, but low risk worth the shot.
TQQQ
STO May 17, 60/65 call spread @ .80 cents on a partial fill.
#earnings Z This took a…
#earnings Z
This took a couple weeks. Feb. 21, sold a March 15, 30/40 strangle for 1.35, with Z around 35. It jumped to a little over 44 and is settling down now below 40. Bought today for .90.
NIO
There is some serious premium in NIO, a $10 Chinese auto stock
A TRADE: Added
SLDB BTO STOCK 11.17
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings — $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
March 2, 2016 BO +3.64%
Avg (+ or -) 14.66%
Bias 2.06%, Positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 21.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.76 to 24.24
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.35 to 24.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 16.36 to 26.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
DLTR earnings analysis
#Earnings — $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +6.13%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO +2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO +0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO +0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO +12.77% Biggest UP
March 1, 2016 BO +2.21%
Avg (+ or -) 7.72%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 95.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.39 to 101.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 87.67 to 102.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 80.24 to 109.76
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings CRM Yesterday sold April…
#earnings CRM
Yesterday sold April 18, 125/185 strangle for 1.47, bought this morning for .69
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Close TSLA BECS Early
#becs
$TSLA BTC 3/15 335/325 BECS at .60. STO 2/8 at 3.00.
SPX 4-dte roll
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 8th 2700/2720-2830/2850 condors for 2.03. Partial roll for loss taken this morning. (IV 12.34%, deltas .13p, .11c, SPX 2785.
SPX 2dte makes another appearance
STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar6 BuPS 2740/2735 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar6 BuPS 2760/2755 @ .25×4
Full position on for this round.
I was planning to pause on the ICs due to low vol. Then the low vol went poof. Also, you could say that @hcgdavis made me do it.:-)
#spx1dte
#jadelizards, #lizardpies, #pietrades, #spikedjadelizard, #spycraft
#earnings CRM Sold April 18,…
#earnings CRM
Sold April 18, 125/185 strangle for 1.47, thanks for the data Jeff
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The $VIX just took out the Upside Warning by 1-point. We need to close at 16.97 or higher for this to be a Downside Warning.
SPX 1-dte dream shattered
#SPX1dte Major suckage… Stopped $SPX March 4th 2770/2750 put spread for 4.60. What started as a brilliant #RiskReversal turned out to be my biggest loser since December (about 3.00 loss, after all accounted for).
To be expected once you get comfortable allowing spreads to expire. The first time volatility comes back it will take a bite.
A TRADE:
NTNX STO 3/8/19 32.5 PUTS @.75 Risky, Falling Knife
SPY long trade closed
#LongCalls Plumb forgot I still had some of these, otherwise I would have sold at the the opening highs.
Sold to close $SPY March 8th 277.5 calls for 2.30. Bought for 1.67 (avg price), sold for 3.54 (avg price).
SPX dump
#SPX1dte Wow… huge reversal. Got stuck holding some longs that are now worthless… at least I sold enough to make that side overall profitable. But now my put spread is threatened and SPX has passed my stop level.
Could this be the blow-off top that starts a new down trend?
CVS adding
Sold $CVS Apr 18 55 puts @ 1.05 with the stock at 57.22. Prices are better now.
Adding to my position, short the Apr 18 60 puts.
CRM condor
#Earnings Sold to Open $CRM March 8th 150/152.5-175/177.5 #IronCondor for 1.15. I put the order in earlier and didn’t expect it to drop this much. But still looking okay based on historical moves (analysis posted Friday.)
Biggest UP move: 11.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.4%, Average move: 3.7%. This is trade is +11.5% and -2.9% OTM.
A TRADE: Moth to the flame.
NTNX STO 3/8/19 32.5 PUTS @.75 Risky
SPX 1dte IC
BTC Mar4 2760/2765 BuPS @ .05 x8. STO @ .30. Profit $200
BTC Mar4 2825/2835 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .55. Profit $200
Total profit $400
#spx1dte
Closing NFLX
Bought to close $NFLX Mar 15 335/325 bull put spread for .70. Sold for 2.55 on 2/13.
A TRADE: Moved over VWAP
NTNX BTO STOCK @33.20 Maybe it will work now. Risky though.
A TRADE:
SLDB BTO STOCK @11.14 An add to.
TT Motion In The Markets – Futures
FYI: https://s3.amazonaws.com/tastytradepublicmedia/website/cms/MotionInTheMarkets_MAR2019.pdf/original/MotionInTheMarkets_MAR2019.pdf?mc_cid=9969294415&mc_eid=c66a1885a5
TRADE:
NTNX STC STOCK 33.0 ;>(
SPX 1-dte risk reversal
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Sold first batch of $SPX March 4th 2820/2830 LONG call spreads for 2.40. Bought for .45 on Friday (and financed by short put spreads sold for .75). Index not looking too strong so I may have to bail with the rest soon.
TRADES:
NTNX BTO STOCK @34.26 & 33.42 Tanked Friday
LABU TNDM Called Away
#shortcalls
$LABU 3/1 60 calls Stock called away. Basis 47.37
$TNDM 3/1 50 calls Stock called away Basis 34.35 Wrote calls on part of position before earnings. Of course earnings were good and stock is now 69.24. Win win for both sides of transaction.
Expired SPX / Roll SQ BUPS / Closed NVDA Strangle
#optionsexpiration
$SPX 2740/2760/2830/2810 IC 1 DTE Thank you @jeffcp66
$NFLX 370 calls (covered)
#rolling
$SQ BTC 4/18 60/70 BUPS and STO 4/18 65/75 BUPS for added a.12 credit. Thank you @ramie77
#earnings
$NVDA BTC 3/15 120/185 straddle @ .20 STO 2/14 for 1.74 Thank you @thomberg1201
Final trades and expirations
#Earnings Sold to Close $VMW #DoubleCalendar final lots for 2.36 and 2.03. Bought for 1.23 yesterday. Avg close price 2.62.
$SPLK splunked out… the only time profit was available was first 5 minutes of the day. Bought for 1.20 yesterday.
Expiring:
$SPX 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
$AZO 860/855 put spreads. Call side closed for .35 on Wednesday. Condor sold for 2.28 on Monday.
$SQ 85 calls, sold for 1.08 on Wednesday.
Lottery tickets for next week:
$BUD 75 long puts
$MSTR 58 and 54 long puts
Closing NUGT short calls
Bought to close $NUGT Jun 21 35 calls @ .35. Sold for 1.01 on 1/30 and 1.20 on 2/20.
Taking around 70% of the profit available, 3 1/2 months early. Who knows what can happen between now and then. I’m out of NUGT completely now so will look to fade another big spike in gold/miners when it happens.
#earnings #assignment AAPL In December…
#earnings #assignment AAPL
In December I was assigned shares on 3 different trades from post earnings put spreads as AAPL went from 220 down to 145 from late October to the December market sell off, my timing being impeccable. Fortunately they were put spreads and the long puts provided significant support. I sold the last of the shares after selling covered calls, actually making a little on each set of shares. Whew
Econ calendar for week of 3/4/19
#Jobs report for February announced Friday, 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=4&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings — $CRM reports Monday at the close. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves are not significantly different)
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27%
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC +4.13%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC +11.03% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.75%
Bias 2.36%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 153.49 to 174.51
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 157.86 to 170.14
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 145.91 to 182.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
Jeff, do you have earnings…
Jeff, do you have earnings data for CRM?
SPX 1-dte, altered
#SPX1dte I’m still in the early stages of this strategy, and I’m testing ways to vary things up based on market conditions. IV for Monday’s options is only 6.83%, which I think is the lowest I’ve seen this year. Selling the standard .06 delta condor isn’t worth the risk (too cheap). This is when I have gone LONG in the past with mixed success. Today I’m trying a risk/reversal set-up. Mondays have been bullish lately, and in general the market feels pretty stuck in a range, so I don’t fear a big drop yet.
Bought to open $SPX March 4th 2820/2830 cal spreads for .45 (long delta .06, SPX 2795)
Sold to Open $SPX March 4th 2770/2750 put spreads for .75 (short delta .11, SPX 2796)
If nothing happens, I’ll make .30. But hopefully we’ll have an early rally toward my call spread and I can close for a profit while put spread expires.
SPX Mar1 ICs closed
BTC all spreads for .05. Total profit $350
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .25 x6
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x4
TRADES:
OSTK BTO STOCK @19.63 Stock is a little wild.
OSTK STO 3/1/19 20.0 PUTS @.60 Will accept stock if “put” to me @19.40
VMW starting to come in
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Closed first batch of $VMX Mar01/Mar08 dbl cals for 2.90. Bought yesterday for 1.30. These higher priced stocks always produce the bigger profits. This winner will easily overtake the small losses in MNST and BUD for the week.
#coveredcallcampaign SCCO Sold April 18,…
#coveredcallcampaign SCCO
Sold April 18, 39.56 call for .40
SPX IC Mar4 trades
STO Mar4 BeCS 2830/2835 @ .30 x4. Sold 2825/2830 @.25 x4 to convert to a 10w @ .55 x4.
BTO Mar4 2835c @ .25 x2 to hedge against a big weekend move to the upside.
STO Mar4 BuPS 2765/2750 @ .30 x8
#spx1dte
Earnings trades
#Earnings Sold to close $BUD 75 call calendar for .07. This one moved farther up today, so profit’s not possible. Closed the call side to avoid assignment.
$MNST I’ll get a small profit out of the 62 calendar, but not moving down enough to make the ATM 58 #DoubleCalendar work. Will be closing the call side to avoid assignment, but will wait until later in case we get a drop.
$VMW This one moved up, but should still turn a small profit.
$SPLK #BrokenWingButterfly Looking for this to rise into the close so I can take profit. It passed through my center strike in the morning but volatility was too wild to close with enough profit.
CVS Falling Knife
Sold $CVS Aug 16 50 puts @ 1.34 with the stock at 58.27.
Strike price is at a 6 year low.
#FallingKnife
MNST double double calendar
Jeff are you still holding, and what is your plan to close
SQ rollup
Rolled $SQ Apr 18 70/60 BuPS up to 75/65 for 1.03 credit. Sold the 70/60 yesterday for 1.65 so total premium collected so far is 2.68.
ADSK Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Bought to Close ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ .17 (sold for 3.25)
SPY sales
#LongCalls Sold to close $SPY March 8th 277.5 long calls for 4.00. Bought for 1.72. Still holding one last batch.
Covered Calls NFLX TNDM EVTC / Short Puts WK
#coveredcalls
$TNDM STO 3/15 65 calls at 2.25 It can’t keep going up can it?
$NFLX STO 3/1 370 call at 2.60
$EVTC STO 3/15 30 call at .30
#shortputs
$WK STO 3/15 50 put at 1.70 Trying to build a position at a discount
GPS #earnings This one is…
GPS #earnings
This one is going to hurt anyone with short calls…
REALLY LAST TRADE: ;>)
OSTK STO 3/1/19 21.0 CALLS @.70 Expires tomorrow.
LAST TRADE:
OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.5 PUTS @.65 Expires tomorrow.
ADSK Earnings
#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…
Sold ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.25
VMW earnings analysis
#Earnings — $VMW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +3.62%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -2.19%
May 31, 2018 AC +6.14%
March 1, 2018 AC -5.91%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +3.60%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +1.89%
June 1, 2017 AC -2.09%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +3.49%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +3.35%
July 18, 2016 AC +9.04%
April 19, 2016 AC +13.73% Biggest UP
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -9.82% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.41%
Bias 2.07%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 173.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.23 to 182.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 163.65 to 182.35
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 149.25 to 196.75
Open to requests for other symbols.
SQ Earnings
#Earnings – Nice bounce today. I’ll take the small winner and move along…
Bought to Close SQ MAR 1 2019 83.0/78.0 Bull Put Spread @ 1.65 (sold for 2.76)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 1st 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors for 1.10. Going a bit aggressive with .08 deltas on the shorts… Fridays have been mellow lately. (IV: 9.5%, SPX 2787)
Expiring: Feb 28th condors, sold yesterday for .80.
#fallingknife Does HPQ qualifies for…
Does HPQ qualifies for a #fallingknife ?
Down 18%
#earnings FL STO FL Mar01…
#earnings
FL
STO FL Mar01 50/68 Short Strangle -0.84
SLDB, Hit a new high…
SLDB, Hit a new high today since its big drop earlier this month. Long a full position. Will add on a pull back.
For rKnight52 Just saw your…
For rKnight52 Just saw your post from a few days ago regarding HIIQ. Thank you. TOS had the earnings date as2/27 initially, so when the stock cratered I assumed poor earnings, and not a lawsuit. I appreciate the information. Have a great week.
Arthur K. HONKHONK81
Updates
#pietrades
EOG batch 1 96.5 put rolled out next week to 96 for 0.16 credit. Cb 93.63 if assigned.
EOG batch 2 96.5 rolled out a week for 0.43 credit. CB 93.91 if assigned.
LNG 65.5 rolled out next week to 65 for 0.12 credit . Cb 63.59 if assigned.
TRIP 54 CC. Was assigned early Tues night so sold the 54 cc for next week for 0.96. Cb 53.03 and will let assign if ITM.
XBI 83/86/87 #lizardpies closed for 0.97. Total credit 3.22 over 3-4 weeks
AXLN 125/131/13 #lizardpies closed for 1. Total profit 1.37 over 3 weeks. It took off to the upside.
QQQ 171.5 sold for 0.75.
SQ 75.5 put STO for 0.83 credit for 3/8.
EXAS 3/15 87.5 put sold for 1.15
ERX 22 cc rolled next week for 0.3 credit. Cb 21.23
TQQQ 54 cc at 56.79, need to stay ahead of the rolls.
FAS 57 cc rolled for 0.40 cb now 54.77.
TQQQ 52 cc at 57 cost basis. Will be rolling.
#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled for 0.24 cb now 7.48.
GILD 67.5/69 cb 6.51
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.44 credit. Cb 12.49
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.27. Cb 12.29.
Busy few weeks. Sun is out, headed outside.
