#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Hopefully add some more later in the week when the current ones get a little more profit in them…
Sold OLED DEC 21 2018 105.0 Call @ 1.00
Recent Updates Page 277
KOLD
STO Jan 18 8 Put 1.05
also have Dec 21 8 Put
RH calls
Sold $RH Jan 18 165 calls @ 3.00 with the stock at 144.96.
#shortstrangles WLL TastyTrade idea sold…
#shortstrangles WLL
TastyTrade idea sold Jan. 18, 26/38 strangle for 1.68
#earnings #shortstrangles DG Closed 101/123…
#earnings #shortstrangles DG #shortstraddle GME
DG Closed 101/123 strangle for .95, sold yesterday for 1.52.
GME November 29, sold 15 straddle for 2.20, bought today for 1.70
LULU date moved
#Earnings $LULU shifting to Thursday after close:
http://investor.lululemon.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lululemon-athletica-inc-announces-date-change-its-third-quarter
RH earnings
My apologies but they announced last night. Looks like they moved up a day at some point… TOS and others reflect it accurately but optionslam.com failed to move it.
Platform upgrade
Tradestation released version 10. For anyone using it I suggest you update. Faster, more stable, looks like easier trading and all your tools will automatically transfer, just make sure you click yes for the import. Looks like they are trying to catch up with TOS.
Cheers!
Closings from today
Bought to close the following:
$NVDA Dec 21 120 puts @ .06. Sold for 1.25 on 11/16.
$NVDA Jan 18 110 puts @ .20. Sold for 1.47 on 11/16.
$UVXY Dec 7 70/80 BeCS @ .04. Sold for 1.25 on 11/6.
$UVXY Jan 18 2019 75 call @ 1.30. Sold for 4.35 on 10/4.
$BA Dec 21 305/300 BuPS @ .09. Sold for 1.27 on 11/19.
$AMZN Dec 21 1470/1450 BuPS @ .31. Sold for 3.41 on 11/12.
$SOXL Dec 21 85 put @ .84-.85. Sold for 5.40-5.67 on 10/10.
#shortcallspreads WWE sold Dec. 21,…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte My spread for today, Dec 3rd 2620/2640-2850/2870 condors, sold Friday for .95, will expire.
Sold $SPX Dec 5th 2715/2735-2830/2850 condors for .85. Expire tomorrow, the 4th, due to market closure on Wednesday.
Went from 210 points wide, down to 85.
Stock Market Closed this Wednesday
I am trying to determine when Wednesday SPX options will now settle. I have heard that it will be tomorrow, Tuesday, but have not confirmed.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-george-hw-bushs-funeral-means-for-stock-market-bond-traders-commodities-2018-12-03/print
#earnings #shortstrangles DG Playing the…
Playing the 5 day averages, sold Dec. 21, 101/123 for 1.52. Thanks Jeff
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Selling small against short puts….
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 7 2018 60.0 Call @ .17 (sold for 2.30)
Sold UVXY DEC 14 2018 50.0 Call @ 2.42
EWW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Over sales so getting out of the way…
Bought to Close EWW DEC 14 2018 44.0 Calls @ .30 (sold for .48)
GLD
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Over sales so getting out of the way…
Bought to Close GLD DEC 14 2018 120.0 Calls @ .14 (sold for .46)
SOXL
STO February 150 calls at 3.50, thanks to Jeff for the idea. Since I am short the 80 puts in May, his should work out.
DG earnings analysis
#Earnings $DG reports ton tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.97%
May 31, 2018 BO -9.36%
March 15, 2018 BO 4.75%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO 2.77%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -5.43%
June 1, 2017 BO 6.54%
March 16, 2017 BO 0.53%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO -4.96%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -17.62% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO 4.61%
March 10, 2016 BO 10.66% Biggest UP
Dec. 3, 2015 BO 4.23%
Avg (+ or -) 6.04%
Bias -0.35%, no significant bias on earnings.
Since it’s only Monday, I checked the 5-day moves… the most down was -15.6%, so less than 1-day, and the most up was 14.1%, more than the 1-day.
With stock at 111.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 103.49 to 118.51
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 104.30 to 117.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 91.44 to 130.56
Open for requests on other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports ton tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO 0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO 0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO 2.47%
March 1, 2016 BO 2.06%
Dec. 8, 2015 BO 5.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.30%
Bias -2.43%, negative bias on earnings.
Since it’s only Monday, I checked the 5-day moves… the extremes were LOWER than the 1-day moves, meaning extreme 1-day moves tend to fade over the following few days.
With stock at 815.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 771.48 to 858.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 779.98 to 850.02
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 718.50 to 911.50
Open for requests on other symbols.
SOXL call
#ContangoETF Sold to Open $SOXL Feb 150 call for 4.50. Against Feb 75 short put.
#rolling #coveredcalls WYNN Rolled Dec….
#rolling #coveredcalls WYNN
Rolled Dec. 7, 106 call to Dec. 21 for .65. WYNN is up 11 to 120.
#shortstock #shortputs CAKE Nov. 16,…
#shortstock #shortputs CAKE
Nov. 16, sold 100 shares short for 47.95 and sold a covered put for .85.
Nov. 30 bought the put for .65
Today, bought to cover 100 shares at 46.06.
SVXY
STO December 14, 52.5 calls @ .90 cents replacing the 51 calls that expired on Friday. Just chipping away at this one.
S&P up 140 points…?
Cramer says this scenario will be a 5 percent rally. It’s still anybody’s guess…
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/01/us-china-wont-impose-additional-tariffs-after-january-1-report.html
SPLK earnings
#Earnings Expiring: $SPLK Nov 30th 102/107/109 #BrokenWingButterfly, for a 3.00 credit at Exercise. Bought for 1.60 yesterday. I was trying to close for 3.05 or more, but wasn’t possible after stock moved above 110 and didn’t come back. My broker charges little to none for exercising ITM spreads.
Good night
Have a nice weekend to everyone. I can’t wait until Monday.
SVXY-still chipping away at these
My 51 covered calls will expire today. They were sold at a net of .475 cents. If we get a big rally on Monday, I can sell them again.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign My condor for today, Nov 30th 2690/2710/2810/2830, is expiring (sold for .90). I wasn’t planning on doing one for Monday due to the chance for a huge gap on the China talks. However, IV is so high, that I was able to sell a very wide condor. My short strikes have been around 100 points apart in this last week. For Monday’s condor, they are 210 apart.
Sold $SPX Dec 3rd 2620/2640-2850/2870 condors for .95.
Short strikes are 115 points away on downside, 95 points on upside. We have exceeded those moves only once this year: to the downside on Feb 5th.
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Let’s give Mr. Market some incentive…
Sold UVXY DEC 28 2018 60.0 Call @ 3.35
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Rolling…
Rolled UVXY NOV 30 2018 54.0 Puts to DEC 7 2018 51.0 Puts @ .90 credit
IC for Monday
Entry:
Sell ES 12/3 2810×2820 Call Binary/Spread 1.00+ Credit
Sell ES 12/3 2675×2665 Put Binary/Spread 1.00+ Credit
Exit Stop Limit Loss: 3x credit per side
#spxcampaign Sell iron condor Nov…
#spxcampaign
Sell iron condor Nov 30 2760/2770 calls and 2740/1730 puts for $1 and 1 hour till expiration. Many missteps today, hope to get this one right.
Back home again after almost…
Back home again after almost 5 weeks of Hospital & Rehab with wife.
Hopefully all is well.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/3/18
Jobs Report is Friday morning
Link to Calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=3&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
#shortcallspreads #shortstrangles TSLA AAL TSLA…
#shortcallspreads #shortstrangles TSLA AAL
TSLA sold Dec. 21, 380/385 for 1.05
AAL sold Jan. 18, 35/44 for 1.40
AMBA Earnings
#Earnings – Gave it shot. I’m great at getting stocks to make moves way outside expected. LOL Paying the extra penny to avoid the exercise fees.
Bought to Close AMBA NOV 30 2018 32/34/36 Iron Flies @ 2.01 (sold for 1.73)
TNA
#CoveredCalls – Keeping it pretty tight betting no major agreement over the weekend. Now we wake up Monday morning with TNA at 75…LOL
Bought to Close TNA NOV 30 2018 65.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.55)
Sold TNA DEC 14 2018 65.0 Calls @ 2.36
TQQQ roll
BTC January 4, 49.5 calls @ 4.14
STO January 11, 50 calls @ 4.26
#earnings #closing #ironcondor NVDA Nov….
#earnings #closing #ironcondor NVDA
Nov. 15, sold 125/135/255/265 for 1.02. NVDA went as low as 133, now back to 160. Closed today for .62.
#earnings #closing #shortstrangles SPLK Bought…
#earnings #closing #shortstrangles SPLK
Bought strangle for 1.33, sold yesterday for 2.30
VixCentral.com is down
They’re aware and working on it but just wanted to let you all know in case you were checking and wondering what happened.
UPRO
#ShortPuts #IRA – Late fill…
Bought to Close UPRO DEC 21 2018 30.0 Put @.10 (sold for 1.05)
OLED
#ShortCalls – Just for safety taking these extras off…
Bought to Close OLED NOV 30 2018 94.0 Calls @ .37 (sold for .85)
Bought to Close OLED NOV 30 2018 95.0 Calls @ .17 (sold for 1.15)
AMBA Earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies – Let’s try it again…risk .27 to make 1.72. Two wide on a 3.90 expected move. Low risk, low probability, high reward.
Sold AMBA NOV 30 2018 32/34/36 Iron Flies @ 1.73
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 2690/2710/2810/2830 condors for .90. Expires tomorrow.
SPLK speculative trade
#Earnings Bought to Open $SPLK Nov 30th 102/107/109 #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.60.
This is a bullish trade. Breakeven at 103.60. No upside risk.
Max loss 1.60.
Max gain (if pin at 107) 3.40.
If it explodes above 109 gain will be 1.40.
TNA
#ShortPuts #IRA – With enough risk in Dec and Jan I’m looking out to Feb now. 21.5% annualized or a pretty good price to buy some stock if it gets there.
Sold TNA FEB 15 2019 50.0 Put @ 2.20
TNA
#ShortPuts #IRA – Just for risk reduction. Now hoping my 65 strike covered calls expire tomorrow. Threading the needle again. 🙂 🙂
Bought to Close TNA NOV 30 2018 60.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 2.25)
#shortputs SLB Bottom feeding, sold…
#shortputs SLB
Bottom feeding, sold Dec. 7, 44 put for .44, stock at 46.14 ex-div next week.
Closing some SOXL
For greater than 50% of the profit.
Bought to close $SOXL Dec 21 85 put @ 2.60. Sold for 5.60 on 10/10.
#earnings #shortstrangles SPLK Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstrangles SPLK
Sold Dec. 21, 80/120 strangle for 2.30, outside past max moves
Trump Xi meeting
From what I can find, it looks like their dinner is Saturday, which means markets may not be affected much tomorrow by the G-20 (unless other big news is generated). But it could mean a gap up or down on Monday. I’m guessing more likely up, as Trump will likely report that the meeting went well. But if his advisors are more bearish, as they usually have been on trade agreements, it could go anywhere.
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings I’m considering a bullish trade on SPLK… it has positive bias on earnings. Possible broken-wing BF with no upside risk.
$SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 23, 2018 AC 14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC 9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC 17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC 8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC 0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC 2.56%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 7.73%
Nov. 19, 2015 AC -3.53%
Avg (+ or -) 7.51%
Bias 2.68%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 89.71 to 110.29
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 92.49 to 107. 51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 82.11 to 117.89
Open for requests on other symbols.
Rolls and adjustments
#pietrades
TQQQ 63 cc rolled out to Jan 19 60 for 0.70 credit. CB now 58.4
TQQQ lot 2 65 cc rolled out and down to Jan 19 60 for 0.70 credit. Cb now 58.75
Just sit on these until rebound. If not will convert to #fuzzy later.
LNG 65 CC rolled down 8 DTE to 62 for 0.96 credit. CB 60.03 so will let assign next week. My plan with this account is to then start a live #lizardpies.
LNG lot 2 expires in 3 weeks at the 61 CC for cb 59.27. Same as above but will change ticker.
My #pietrades for the next few weeks will be LNG, GILD, EXPE, EOG, XBI, SMH. A few others I am watching but these will be the core trades for a while. Want to see chips and a few other names stabilize before adding.
#fuzzy
LNG 50/65 rolled out 43 DTE for 1.03 credit. Cb now 15.31 and 110 weeks left.
I have not taken a LEAP all the way to expiration in several years but I may do that with some of these smaller accounts to see what kind of annualized returns I can achieve. Hopefully 50-100% or more.
Have a ton of contracts expiring in 15 and 21 DTE so sitting on hands until then. At that point will add a few more live #lizardpies as I roll the #fuzzy and free up some cash.
4 things I noticed with the latest correction. If you own the stock can sit on it long term but the losses are much larger on paper than with spreads and takes a lot longer to get back to even.
The spreads help navigate the corrections and are easier to adjust, but everyone here probably already knew that.
Using longer options with the #pietrades 21-43 DTE prevents a lot of assignments and easier to roll. Also helps handle the volatility easier.
Once VIX settles down (under 15) will always leave on an SPX or /ES hedge lottery ticket to cover about 10% correction for the account. Probably finance it by selling a LEAP on something I want to own long term.
Finally a slight bump in my equity curve after being down/flat for the last 8 weeks 🙂
BOIL
#BearCallSpreads – Surprised I got filled on this one. Better than yesterday even with the stock down a little.
Sold BOIL MAR 15 2019 50.0/60.0 Bear Call Spread @ 3.25
#jeff SPX call spread Are…
SPX call spread
Are you still holding $SPX Dec 7th 2720/2745 call spreads?
#earnings #shortstraddle GME Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstraddle GME
Sold Dec. 21 15 straddle for 2.20, thanks Jeff
UNG
DLTR Earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies – Not looking like it’s gonna come back so taking a tiny loss instead of small loss…LOL Now I can try again in something else. On the bright side the pin action is carrying over to DG although I think DG is a much better store. 🙂
Bought to Close DLTR NOV 30 2018 80.5/83.5/86.5 Iron Flies @ 2.70 (sold for 2.59)
OLED
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Replacing this week’s with a half size for now…
Sold OLED DEC 7 2018 98.0 Calls @ .72
GME earnings analysis
#Earnings $GME reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 0.06%
May 31, 2018 AC 3.93%
March 28, 2018 AC -10.81%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC 3.82%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -10.92%
May 25, 2017 AC -5.92%
March 23, 2017 AC -13.60% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 22, 2016 AC 8.08% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.63%
May 26, 2016 AC -3.93%
March 24, 2016 AC -0.59%
Nov. 23, 2015 BO -4.20%
Avg (+ or -) 6.37%
Bias -3.73%, significant negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 14.90 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 13.49 to 16.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 13.80 to 15.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.6%): 12.74 to 16.74
Open for requests on other symbols.
AMBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMBA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC -3.62%
June 5, 2018 AC -12.93%
March 1, 2018 AC 13.46%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC 14.29% Biggest UP
Aug. 31, 2017 AC -22.35% Biggest DOWN
June 6, 2017 AC -10.24%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -4.42%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -11.27%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -6.67%
June 2, 2016 AC 9.39%
March 3, 2016 AC -8.93%
Dec. 3, 2015 AC -1.64%
Avg (+ or -) 9.93%
Bias -3.74%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.30 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 29.86 to 38.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.04 to 37.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.4%): 26.76 to 42.16
Open for requests on other symbols.
DG
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Re-loading for earnings. Nice bounce is allowing a sale at 1.5x the expected move and well above the all time high. I may adjust this down prior to the announcement. Selling against bull put spreads.
Sold DG DEC 7 2018 122.0 Calls @ .60
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Selling a call now against where I will hopefully be able to sell a new batch of puts tomorrow. Ratio is now 16 long puts against 8 short puts against 3 short calls (calls spread out to only one per week for safety). Trying to generate as much cash as possible over the next 111 weeks.
Sold UVXY DEC 7 2018 60.0 Call @ 2.30
SQ calls rolled
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Rolled $SQ Nov 30th 66 calls to Dec 7th 67 calls for .10 credit
Earnings today
#Earnings A list of Bistro favorites… AMBA, GME, PANW, SPLK, VMW, WDAY. Not sure if I’ll be trading any, but let me know if you’d like analysis on any or all.
TQQQ
I rolled the 49 calls in December 21 out to February 54 calls for a credit of .15 cents. I was having some margin problems since I was long the 60 calls in 2021 and short the 49 calls in December.I am giving up 8 weeks of rolls but had 38 weeks covered so far.
#assignment again X Assigned on…
#assignment again X
Assigned on a 35 put, originally sold in May and rolled, cost basis of 31.37. Sold Dec. 7, 24.50 call for .28
#earnings #shortstrangle DLTR bought strangle…
#earnings #shortstrangle DLTR
bought strangle for .38, sold yesterday for .97.
ANF partially closed
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $ANF Nov 30th 17 calls for 4.20. Sold half of my position. Holding the other half to see how the morning shakes out. Bought the straddle yesterday for 2.58.
#closing #butterfly NFLX November 9,…
#closing #butterfly NFLX
November 9, sold Dec. 21, 250/260/265 put butterfly, closed today for a gain of .25 (edited)
DLTR Earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies – As usual…low risk and low probability but good reward if it works. Risk .41 to make 2.59 playing 3 wide on a 5.90 expected move.
Sold DLTR NOV 30 2018 80.5/83.5/86.5 Iron Flies @ 2.59
ANF trade
#Earnings Bought to open $ANF Nov 30th 17 #LongStraddle for 2.58.
TQQQ
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Lots of time left on this one so taking the small loss since it’s getting a little DITM and sold below the LEAPS.
Bought to Close TQQQ NOV 30 2018 47.0 Calls @ 2.90 (sold for 2.50)
TNA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Just in case this rally has any follow through tomorrow I’m getting out of the way with a decent weekly profit. Looking to re-load higher at some point.
Bought to Close TNA NOV 30 2018 63.0 Calls @ 1.01 (sold for 2.45)
Options Bistro 