#LongPuts #LEAPS – Trying again for a few extra sales…
Sold DUST JAN 11 2019 23.5 Puts @ .75
Recent Updates Page 276
Closing RH calls
Bought to close $RH Jan 18 165 calls @ 1.35. Sold for 3.00 on 12/4. Being strict about my 50% profit targets in this market.
TRADES: Risky
SFIX STO 12/14/18 18.0 NTM PUTS @.61
PBYI STO 12/14/18 23.0 NTM PUTS @.55
PBYI STO 12/21/18 24.0 ATM PUTS @1.25
Rolling ROKU
Rolled short in the money $ROKU Dec 21 40 puts out to Jan 18 40 puts for .92 credit. When I entered this trade on 11/8, I got 1.43 credit so total taken in is now 2.35 bringing my basis on the stock, if assigned, to 37.65.
#earnings SFIX Couldn’t get filled…
#earnings SFIX
Couldn’t get filled on a 20/35 strangle yesterday, down 27% to the 18s right now.
AMAT
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Booking these extra sales just in case the rally holds…
Bought to Close AMAT DEC 14 2018 37.0/42.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .08 (sold for .46)
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Sold next week’s a little early so booking this week for safety.
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 14 2018 55.0 Puts @ .23 (sold for 1.72)
KOLD closed
#ContangoETFs
Closed $KOLD Dec 21st 8 put for .20 and 9 put for .25. Both sold for 1.20 each on 11/19, as part of a roll campaign from ITM $BOIL calls.
#assignment AAPL #coveredcalls Assigned 100…
#assignment AAPL #coveredcalls
Assigned 100 shares at 187.50, from a spread, sold the 185 put at 16.30 for a cost basis of 170.53. Sold Dec. 14, 170 call for 2.06. AAPL currently going for 168 and change.
PVTL covered Calls
#Earnings #CoveredCalls Sold $PVTL Dec 21st 21 calls for .80. This order has been in for a couple weeks, but only today did it finally fill, and earnings are tonight. Was assigned via 22.5 puts on 9/20. This sale brings my cost basis down to 18.95.
OLED TNA UNG
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #CoveredCalls – Out most of the day but got a few trades in…
OLED: Adding…
Sold OLED DEC 21 2018 104.0 Calls @ 1.05
TNA: Covered calls…
Bought to Close TNA DEC 14 2018 65.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 2.36)
Sold TNA JAN 18 2019 60.0 Calls @ 2.15
UNG:Sold against long puts…
Bought to Close UNG DEC 14 2018 31.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for .41)
PBYI Just noticed that it…
PBYI Just noticed that it hit a new high today, 24.87, since the beginning of November. Have stock, short calls and puts.
TRADES:
DBX STO 12/14/18 22.5 CALLS @.40 wcin Will cover if necessary.
DBX STO 12/21/18 23.5 CALLS @.40 COVERED
BTO STOCK @23.77 An add to sell premium.
PBYI STO 12/21/18 24.0 CALLS @1.30
PBYI STO 12/14/18 25.0 CALLS @.55
WDC #doubledip Rolled the 11…
WDC #doubledip #fuzzy
Rolled the 11 DTE 40/47 down to 11 DTE 42.5 for 1.04 credit. cb now 20.09. 109 weeks to manage but this one has been such a dog lately I will probably scratch it once I can break even.
AAPL stock
#LongStock #Dividends
Bought $AAPL stock for 168.00. Starter position. Seems like a possible bottom, so reentering the stock after selling my position on October 5.
TQQQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Dec 14th 47 calls for .80
Long FXB
With the pound taking a beating, I decided to sell some premium via put spreads in a couple of IRA accounts. The buying power of naked puts would be much too high so I bought cheap wings to create a synthetic short put with a potential 11% ROC in 40 days. Delta of the short strike is 30.
SQ calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $SQ Dec 14th 66 calls for .72.
SPX 1-dte cosed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 10th 2710 calls for .05, and the 25120/2490 put spreads for .10. Condors sold for 1.00 on Friday. Next one will be sold tomorrow for Wednesday expiration.
SFIX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SFIX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day AND 5-day moves over its entire history (only 4 quarters). I included both 1 & 5 because of the significant differences in the moves.
NOTE: Stock has had wide swings in the days after earnings, and in last few days. This morning it was up 5.5% only 15 minutes into today.
Oct. 1, 2018 AC 1-day: -35.15%; 5-day: -41.07% Biggest DOWN
June 7, 2018 AC 1-day: +20.21%; 5-day: +22.42%
March 12, 2018 AC 1-day: +3.77%; 5-day: -15.42%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC 1-day: +39.39%; 5-day: -0.57% Biggest UP initially, but all given back in 5 days.
Avg (+ or -) 1-day : 24.63%; 5-day: 19.99%
Bias 1-day: +7.06%; 5-day: -8.66%, positive bias in 1 day; negative bias in 5 days.
With stock at 28.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday’s expiration per TOS): 21.87 to 34.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1-day: 21.10 to 34.90; 5-day: 22.44 to 33.56
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 1-day (39.4%): 16.97 to 39.03; 5-day (41.1%): 16.50 to 39.50
Open for requests on other symbols.
PCG 17 puts expiring, thanks…
PCG 17 puts expiring, thanks @optioniceman
Why I sell options-last 2…
Why I sell options-last 2 days whipsaws, dow down 800 points yesterday, recovered. Today down another 485. All of my tickers are down but because of theta decay my core account is up. Wrong on direction but still making money.
I salute those of you that successfully trade directionally but these are the times that make me realize that being the house always wins in the long run!
However, some stability would be nice…….have a great weekend.
UVXY spread
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads for 7.00. Adding to my position I started for 4.35. This is entirely ITM, but I feel volatility will be quieting into Christmas, and a drift back below 50 in reasonable to believe in 2 weeks. Even without a true Santa Claus rally this can happen. Looking at the VIX and UVXY today, they’ve been drifting lower this afternoon, even as SPX continued lower. If I am wrong, it’s manageable as a spread.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 10th 2490/2510-2710/2730 condors for 1.00. Expire Monday. Filled on spike higher. If I were selling now I would shift the whole thing higher.
DUST
Econ calendar for week of 12/10/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” above to keep Bistro features updated.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=10&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
Took FIVE
#Earning Sold $FIVE Dec 7th 98 puts for 1.30. That worked nicely.
Sold 100/98 spreads for .65.
Bought to close 100 puts for .55
Sold to close 98 puts for 1.30.
Total profit 1.40.
TQQQ
In my IRA, BTC a partial of the December 21, 61 covered calls @.05 cents, sold at 2.30
UNG
DJI
Down 400 points. I wonder if we will see down 800?
AMAT DUST WTW WYNN
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS – A few rolls and new sales…
AMAT: Giving it some room. Close to being out of this one so being careful.
Sold AMAT JAN 18 2019 39.0/44.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .31
DUST: Rolling a couple puts down sold against more long puts
Rolled DUST DEC 14 2018 34.0 Put to JAN 4 2019 33.0 Put @ .02 credit
Rolled DUST DEC 14 2018 33.0 Put to JAN 4 2019 32.0 Put @ .17 credit
WTW:
Bought to Close WTW DEC 7 2018 50.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.95)
Sold WTW DEC 14 2018 49.5 Calls @ 1.15
WYNN:
Bought to Close WYNN DEC 7 2018 115.0 Calls @ .03 (sold for 1.13)
Sold WYNN DEC 21 2018 120.0 Calls @ 1.16
#earnings #shortstrangles LULU Bought LULU…
#earnings #shortstrangles LULU
Bought LULU strangle for .26, sold yesterday for 1.29.
TRADES:
AMD STO 12/14/18 22.0 CALLS @.38
WLL STO 12/14/18 28.0 PUTS @.37
WLL STO 12/14/18 33.5 CALLS @51
FIVE closed
#Earnings Bought to close $FIVE 100 puts for .55. The Dec 7th 100/98 put spreads were sold for .65 on Tuesday. Two days in a row we rose to over 106 in the morning, and then collapse to 100 or lower. Didn’t think it would happen twice so I didn’t close earlier. If we get another dump like yesterday, I can sell the 98 longs for fat profit.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close 2600/2575 put spreads for .10. Will close call spreads for .05.
TQQQ
BTC December 28, 40 puts @ .80, sold yesterday at 1.70
Over on SMM,Gartman
Fox business said he hit Job number projecting yesterday 155,000. His projection came true. Still bearish on stocks, same view as last 6 months. Would not put new money in market.
November Jobs Report
#Jobs Lower than expected.
+155,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 198K expected
Unemployment at 3.7%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 7.6%, up by 0.2%
Wages up 0.2%, or 6 cents, 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 62.9%, unchanged
October revised down from 250k to 237k
September revised up from 119k to 134k
AAPL put spread
Sold $AAPL Jan 18 165/160 BuPS @ 1.12. IV rank is 66. Delta of short puts 28. Could be a double bottom on the daily–if there’s follow through I’ll look to take this off quickly with help from delta and a contraction of IV.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 2600/2580 put spread for .75. Legging in since market is moving higher. Trying for 2750/2770 on call side.
#earnings #shortstrangles LULU Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstrangles LULU
Sold Dec. 21, 100/160 for 1.29, thanks for the data Jeff.
TRADES:
SFIX 12/14/18 23.5 PUT @1.00
SFIX 12/14/18 31.0 CALL @1.47 I’m trying to work out an earnings play for next week. Have to buy stock.
PBYI 12/14/18 22.5 PUT @1.10
And…the Qs are positive
Nasdaq up on the day, after being down almost 175 points lower this morning
AMZN
Earlier I bought to open the December 7, 1625/1640 bull call spread at 10.50 for a small trade of 5 contracts. I have an order in to sell it at 14.50 so may get filled at the end of the day or early tomorrow.
TRADES: Was down 2.5% this…
TRADES: Was down 2.5% this morning, almost flat now.
BTC Short Calls in, PCG, AMD, DBX & WLL @.05 this morning.
DBX STO 12/14/18 23.50 CALLS @.40
WFC STO a 12/14/18 50/45 BuPS @.80
Jeff, doing a earnings analysis…
Jeff, doing a earnings analysis on SFIX?
SMH
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Surprisingly this ticker isn’t getting killed too bad today (yet)…
Bought to Close SMH DEC 7 2018 98.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .85)
Sold SMH DEC 14 2018 95.0 Calls @ .82
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – This week’s short puts are obviously safe. Sizable position with nice profits. For risk management I used those profits to buy back a couple short calls I wasn’t comfortable with. Position is out to 2021 so plenty of time to get that back. Much more comfortable now with one short call against 8 short puts in the weeklies. Sold next week’s…
Sold UVXY DEC 14 2018 55.0 Puts @ 1.72
Vix finally moving up quickly,…
Vix finally moving up quickly, possible bottom, there is a lot of volume here over the last 30 days on volume profile. Who knows but if it breaks this level probably a lot more downside.
Going for bike, should know when I get back.
Rolls
Trying to get back to selling weeklies, better returns in real time confirmed by my account balances. Taking a credit of 0.4 every week works out to $2080 profits for 52 weeks vs. 1.2 x 12 months only works out to $1440 or 37% better return. So anyway, even with the gamma risk the decay is much faster on weeklies and the #pietrades concept works so now I am trying to apply it to all other trades, #fuzzy, #coveredcalls etc. to increase income. Last 8-12 weeks had gone out 21-45 DTE on expirations to help deal with the volatility. Trying to pull everything back to weekly now. I know TT shows 45 DTE works best but not according to my account balances.
#fuzzy
MU 40/40 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.53 credit. Cb now 14.16
WDC 40/47 8 DTE rolled out to 15 DTE for 0.27 credit. Cb 21.13
GILD 67.5/69 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE for 0.61 credit. Cb 10.35. I really wanted to let some more time decay but doubt I will have time to trade tomorrow. Starting to see flu so the office is really busy. Get your flu shots if you have not had them yet.
Added 1 more at lunch time, EOG 110/110 8 DTE rolled out 15 DTE for 0.30. Cb 12.39
Still have 110 weeks to manage all these. The #fuzzy trades handle the volatility better than anything else I have on at the moment.
#pietrades
LNG 1 DTE rolled out to 8 DTE at 62 cc for 0.45 credit. Cb 59.58
Lots of expirations next week and week after. Should free ups some cash to try a live #lizardpies and maybe @elitethink short iron fly tactic, small lots on both.
Hope everyone is having a good week 🙂
#shortstock KBE Nov. 2, sold…
#shortstock KBE
Nov. 2, sold short 100 shares of the regional banking ETF at 43.20. Nov. 6 sold a 41 put for .40, bought it Tue. for .35.
Today bought to cover the 100 shares for 41.10.
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE Dec. 4,…
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE
Dec. 4, sold an 85/125 strangle for 1.28, bought today for .39
#assignment #fuzzy SLB Feb. 16,…
#assignment #fuzzy SLB
Feb. 16, sold a Jan. 18, 2019 65/67.50 as part of a fuzzy. I was assigned the 67.50 yesterday. After selling the 65 put for 22.50, figuring in the worthless 67.50 long call, and all of the short call sales ,the cost basis is 44.26.
TQQQ
STO December 28, 40 puts @ 1.70
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC 6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC 7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13% Biggest DOWN
May 25, 2017 AC 3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC 4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -6.11%
May 26, 2016 AC 9.10%
March 10, 2016 AC 17.27% Biggest UP
Dec. 3, 2015 AC 12.80%
Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 3.28%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 290.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 271.98 to 308.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 270.04 to 309.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.3%): 239.92 to 340.08
Open for requests on other symbols.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 30, 2018 AC 13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC 16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC 9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC 7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC 11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC 15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO 4.90%
March 30, 2016 BO 10.71%
Dec. 9, 2015 BO -13.11%
Avg (+ or -) 11.79%
Bias 3.94%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 119.62 to 147.38
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.32 to 148.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 101.84 to 164.16
Open for requests on other symbols.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC 8.49%
March 1, 2017 AC 0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC 4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC 4.93%
March 3, 2016 AC 6.35%
Dec. 2, 2015 AC 9.50% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 4.68%
Bias 2.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 225.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 212.36 to 237.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 214.48 to 235.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 203.63 to 246.38
Open for requests on other symbols.
@elitethink Spy example with a…
Spy example with a 30 point spread. Based on math, the straddle is selling for 7.6 next Wed or 1 week and 4 x that would be 30 points. So here is an example on a 30 point wide iron fly.
Second graph shows an adjustment if it dropped to 262, now of course the prices would change but shows a flattening of the risk curve.
I know this is not what you are doing but just trying to get the basic math down.
So if the first graph is correct, at what point do you adjust?
Interesting idea
Stop at 9.3 debit, then add next spread in same expiration or going out to next expiration? Obviously at this point one side would be winning.
This is kind of my idea with the #lizardpies, sell the straddle to make as much decay as possible, hedge the upside, cash secured on put side.
Yeah, post the live trades, I am interested in how it works live in the market 🙂
Econ Calendar revised
Revised with today’s holiday and Jerome Powell speaks after market close on Thursday.
https://wp.me/p6Nxuc-dV8
Maybe the leveraged products are…
Maybe the leveraged products are not so good for options. We definitely saw that with SVXY. TT has done some new research.
Obviously the advantage is a lot of them are priced lower than SPY so can use in smaller accounts.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/trading-options-on-leveraged-etfs-11-26-2018
Also, finally had time to read the optionsellers.com debacle. No one will mange your own money better than you. I think everyone here knows that. I read their book, actually good but maybe naked strangles on futures not the best idea.
Figured with a quiet trading day would pass this along.
Researching an Idea
Hi gang, I thought some of you might be interested in a method I am testing. ‘Have a friend who took his TOS sim account from $100k to $1.3 million in a couple months using this idea the last few months. If you are like me you don’t trust sim prices, but eventually i had to look into it. One week of trading real time in sim, and adding significant friction to overcome the sim pricing and the results are encouraging, +35% in my first week. We will begin live trading this Friday.
The model is simple and uses spx/es next expiration options.
model: sell the atm iron fly, set stops for each vertical spread at 1.3x the vertical spread credit.
once a stop takes place: lower the stop for the other side to break even, look for a cross of the short term ma on 1 min bars and set up another iron fly, set stops at 1.3x again.
rinse and repeat, once the 4th iron fly is established, take profits on the leg remaining from the first iron fly. Keep taking profits as iron flys are established.
this is a ton of work, but it made 12 spx points today after slippage and commission, with 33 trades.
#market
TNA TQQQ
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Another round…let’s see if the market can get back to these.
TNA:
Bought to Close TNA DEC 7 2018 67.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .92)
Sold TNA DEC 21 2018 66.5 Calls @ .81
TQQQ:
Bought to Close TQQQ DEC 7 2018 55.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .45 after paying a debit roll)
Sold TQQQ DEC 21 2018 54.0 Calls @ .85
DG
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Replacing this week’s 122’s…
Sold DG DEC 21 2018 109.0 Calls @ .60
Yesterday I was a trading…
Yesterday I was a trading GENIUS, screen looked like pea soup, today I’m a trading moron, screen looks like salsa with a teeny teeny bit of cilantro.
Bipolar market again, either buy…
Bipolar market again, either buy everything or sell everything. Anyone have a sign for that? The only thing saving my accounts is large positive theta decay, $300+ daily no matter which way the market moves.
NFLX put spread-Dec
Sold $NFLX Dec 21 250/240 BuPS @ 1.20. IV rank is 68. Delta of the short put is 16.
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE Sold Dec….
#earnings #shortstrangles FIVE
Sold Dec. 21, 85/125 for 1.28, outside the averages, just inside the call max,-thanks for the info Jeff
TQQQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Since these started the day ITM, taking profits now as this may be a sustained bounce.
BTC $TQQQ Dec 7th 51.5 calls for .55. Sold last week for 1.25.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1-dte — in trouble again, last week to upside, today on downside. If we get no bounce I’m going to roll into an ATM or ITM put spread a week or two out.
UVXY call spread
#VXXGame Sold to Open $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads for 4.35. Max risk 5.65, but also can manage to roll if we stay above this level for 2 more weeks.
Also, Sold UVXY Jan 2020 135 call for 9.50.
SQ calls closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $SQ Dec 7th 67 calls for 1.00. Sold in a roll for 3.10 last week. Stock now at 65.00 after topping out at 73.00 yesterday.
FIVE earnings analysis
#Earnings $FIVE reports Wednesday afternoon. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 6, 2018 AC 13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC 21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC 4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC 0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC 10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC 9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC 2.07%
March 22, 2016 AC 6.81%
Dec. 3, 2015 AC 5.44%
Avg (+ or -) 6.66%
Bias 5.82%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 104.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.10 to 113.90
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 97.07 to 110.93
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 81.27 to 126.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
RTN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Bought to Close RTN DEC 14 2018 185.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .86)
BOIL Dec
Sold $BOIL Dec 21 105 calls @ 1.50. BOIL would need to double from here in 2 1/2 weeks to reach the strike.
Options Bistro 