#Earnings #ShortStrangles – Just going with one in case I have to manage it for awhile. Based on Jeff’s data (BTW…which I love what he’s doing with those posts…thank you!!) selling near the max move.
Sold BIIB OCT 26 2018 295.0/345.0 Strangle @ 5.20
Recent Updates Page 301
#lophir #closing WMT Closed Oct….
LMT pre-ER
Sold LMT pre-ER long calls @ 94% loss and BWB for 38% loss. Still holding double calendar thru earnings to reduce losses.
BIIB strangle
#Earnings Sold to Open $BIIB Oct 26th 285/350 strangle for 3.35. Filled on 1, have another 1 pending. Strikes are just outside expected move when I posted the analysis earlier. However, IV has dropped intraday and now expected move is 296 to 343, which is the same as the MAX moves over last 12 quarters.
I’ll likely sell a third later in the day, but 3 is my max at this high of a stock price.
XBI
#LongCalls #LEAPS – With biotech in the dumpster any 2020 positions I don’t mind keeping are in a perfect position to roll to 2021 for minimal cost.
Rolled XBI JAN 17 2020 97.0 Calls to JAN 15 2021 97.0 Calls @ 3.70 debit
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Setting up for next week. Selling weekly strangles against my long LEAP puts. Less calls than puts for safety.
Sold UVXY NOV 2 2018 70.0 Call @ 2.35
AMBA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Nice start to the week…
Bought to Close AMBA OCT 26 2018 39.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .55)
Sold AMBA NOV 9 2018 36.0 Calls @ .62
LMT double calendar
Bot LMT Oct26/Nov2 325 put/call @ 1.95. Will hold thru earnings as a potential salvage trade for the pre-ER positions not working out.
KMB puts
Big move down after earnings.
Sold $KMB Jan 18 95 puts @ 1.35. Strike is at what would be a 5 year low (last traded at 95 in Oct 2013). Stock at 105.61, delta of puts 18.
TQQQ
I roll my November 2, 58 calls to November 9, 58.5 calls for a credit of .30 cents. I need .18 cents per week so I am getting an extra .12 cents and an increase in the strike price of 1/2 point.
LITE pre-earnings
Sold two BWB (broken-wing fly) for average 10% profit. Got out based on hitting target price on LITE. The flies don’t profit as much as the long calls but they have less risk too.
LABU
STO November 2, 72 calls @ .55 cents. These are against my 2020, 115 calls but I still have 64 weeks to earn the premium to pay for this position.
Added to SPY
#LongCalls Bought $SPY Nov 16th 284 calls for 1.25, adding to my position.
Closing NFLX call spread
Bought to close $NFLX Nov 16 400/410 bear call spread for .21. Sold for 2.00 on 10/17.
SVXY
Covered calls. STO November 2, 54 calls @.30 cents.
BABA pre-ER sold
Sold BABA pre-ER positions for average profit of 31%. Based on possibility of China one-day bounce.
BIIB Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $BIIB reports before the bell tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 24, 2018 BO 4.10%
April 24, 2018 BO 1.09%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO 2.08%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -3.90%
July 25, 2017 BO -0.61%
April 25, 2017 BO 3.62%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO 2.06%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC -1.87%
July 21, 2016 BO 7.63%
April 21, 2016 BO 5.15%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO 5.15%
Oct. 21, 2015 BO 3.96%
Avg + or – 3.44%
Bias +2.37%, upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 319.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 288.77 to 349.23
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 308.04 to 329.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 294.66 to 343.34
It is rare that the implied volatility is predicting a move that is larger than the stock’s biggest moves over 12 quarters. There is decent premium beyond the IV extremes, but bid/ask spreads are wide. Stock is currently at the 200 ema.
Up, up, and away?
Equity futures prices have climbed overnight and are looking to open higher following the biggest rally in Chinese equities since 2015. China had a huge day rising 4.1%.
Read more in our Morning Lineup: https://t.co/AuqANPJSJP pic.twitter.com/yf1ShvFsmN— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 22, 2018
FromSMM
Gartman says we could go down 15 to20% from here. Buy,buy,buy.
Pre-Earnings entries for next week
AAPL BMY DIS GE LITE VALE
Trade at your own risk.:-)
Expirations Have a nice weekend.
LABU 80 calls
LABU 92.5 calls
SVXY 62 calls
AMZN 1580/1600 bull put spread
#shortputspread IBM Borrowed concept from…
#shortputspread IBM
Borrowed concept from Tastytrade. IBM hasn’t been this low since January of 2016. Sold a couple Dec. 115/120 put spreads at .81 each.
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS #ShortCalls – Selling the crap out of this before it eventually implodes. Selling weekly strangles against my long LEAP puts.
Bought to Close UVXY OCT 19 2018 50.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 2.35)
Sold UVXY OCT 26 2018 51.0 Puts @ 2.10
LABU OLED XBI
#LongCalls #LEAPS #BullPutSpreads – Weeklies against various positions. Missed this morning where these could’ve all done better but taking what I can get.
LABU:
Bought to Close LABU NOV 2 2018 95.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.35)
Sold LABU OCT 26 2018 70.0 Calls @ 1.31
OLED:
Bought to Close OLED OCT 26 2018 130.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 1.30)
Sold OLED OCT 26 2018 117.0 Call @ 1.20
XBI:
Bought to Close XBI NOV 2 2018 95.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.10)
Sold XBI NOV 2 2018 89.0 Calls @ .76
#shortstock #shortputs MRO Sold an…
#shortstock #shortputs MRO IMAX
Sold an Oct. 26, 20.5 put for .38, covered by short stock, a reverse covered call.
Sold short 100 shares of IMAX at 22.48
#earnings #closing NFLX Oct. 16…
Oct. 16 sold 265/270/400/405 #ironcondor for 1.01, bought today for 56.
Oct. 15, followed Ramie and sold a 410/420 #shortcallspreads for 1.26, bought today for .25.
Econ Calendar for week of Oct 22-26, 2018
Be sure to periodically click Home/REFRESH to keep Bistro features updated.
Lophir petri dishes broke
Closed the last of my lophirs this week: ADBE, AMZN, GOOGL, ISRG, JNJ, MMM, PG. Loss against max risk ranged from 20% to 80%. It’s a good thing I made money in AMZN earlier this year or I would have been really unhappy.
Pre-ER trades
When a system doesn’t work, stop trading it. No more pre-ER this quarter for me. That means they’ll probably start working like a charm. I’ve been doing these systematically for two years. This is the first quarter where the losses are piling up.
Closed GPC long calls and straddle for a profit (held thru earnings)
Sold a double cal in HON to end up with a profit overall (unusual adjustment)
Full loss on VFC
Still holding AMZN, BABA, CAT, EOG, GOOGL, LITE, LMT, MSFT, ROKU, SHOP, SWK with limited risk. All losing except LITE at this point.
Will update the pre-ER spreadsheet with actual percent gains and losses after the close
#preearnings
TQQQ
I rolled my November 2, 66 calls, 66.5 calls, and 67 calls down to the November 2, 58 calls for an average credit of 2.76 which covers 15 weeks of my weekly calls at .18 cents per week. I have covered 18% of my cost and have 115 weeks to go from November 2.
TQQQ synthetic
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $TQQQ Oct 26th 60 calls for 1.40. Against my 2020 66.67 #LongLEAPs
#OT Morning / Afternoon all….
#OT Morning / Afternoon all. I am going to take some time away from active trading. Sort of a sabbatical. Maybe on the order of 3-6 months. Life’s little pleasures have been monopolizing my time of late and I am unfocused. I closed my leaps for a small profit and have a few (4) underwater positions that will need regular maintenance to get back to even. Of course the long term portfolio needs to be managed per usual. I’ll pop in from time to time and be back regularly once I get things caught up. Just to squash the fake news my wife is still here, the farm is intact though the weeds are very happily taking over, I’m not going to jail, and I’m definitely not running for public office. Though the latter two might go together. Jeff this is a gem of a community. I am so honored to be a member. Thank you all. Happy and successful trading. Later Jon
PG rated
Procter & Gamble $PG is up 7.26% today on earnings. Its prior best one-day reaction to earnings since 2001 was +4.33% back in January 2002! Best earnings reaction for PG since at least 2001 today. pic.twitter.com/yZ0Sg6GBCY
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 19, 2018
SQ synthetic
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $SQ Oct 26th 80 calls for 1.25. Good premium for only one week out. It topped out at 80 last week. These are against my 2020 #LongLEAPs.
Hedging more
#VXXGame Bought to open two each of the following, giving me almost $10K in margin as they release pressure from short calls.
BTO $VXX Jan 2019 105 calls for .44
BTO $UVXY Nov 16th 112 calls for 1.25
I do think we will have at least one more drop before recovery.
#earnings #closing #shortstraddle CREE October…
#earnings #closing #shortstraddle CREE
October 15, sold a Nov. 35 straddle for 4.69, bought today for 3.32.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 2820/2845 call spreads for 7.10.
These expire a week from today.
ISRG closed
#Earnings BTC $ISRG Oct 19th 490 puts for .53. Sold the 490/565 strangles yesterday for 5.25. I’m letting the calls expire.
Earnings double calendars
Here’s a quick update on my foray into using double cals to play volatility thru earnings. You know what they say. You win some. You lose some. Thanks to HON and ISRG, I won overall.:-)
AXP Sold @ .70. Bot @.73
HON Sold @ 2.37. Bot @ 1.35
ISRG Sold @ 10.84. Bot 5.27
PYPL Sold @ .55. Bot @ .80
VFC Sold @ .47. Bot @ .60
PYPL synthetic
#SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $PYPL Nov 2nd 88 calls for 1.20.
These aren’t really that covered, as I have the Jan 2019 100-strike #LongLEAPs, which are trading for about 1.00.
Also looking to sell calls in $SQ, where premium is much higher than PYPL, so I’m waiting to see if it tops out.
TQQQ
Rolled the October 26, 57 calls to November 2, 58 calls for a credit of .17 cents. I get a credit and an extra point in my strike price. These are against my 2021, 60 calls.
TRADES:
TWLO STO 10/19/18 71.0 PUTS @.90 Price now at 71.76. Wouldn’t mind being assigned.
ISRG Earnings
#Earnings Sold $ISRG Oct 19th 490/565 strangles for 5.25. My strikes are -6.7% and +7.6% OTM.
I’m skipping the $SKX straddle… I think the stock is too low already to drop far enough, and I don’t see it blasting higher in this market. Watch me be wrong in 10 minutes!
#shortstock BNS sold short 100…
#shortstock BNS EWG
sold short 100 shares of the Bank of Nova Scotia for 54.52, 2nd time in this ticker.
sold short 100 shares of a Germany ETF for 27.68
UVXY
Filled near the highs: Sold $UVXY Jan 2020 112 call for 14.50.
#VXXGame
REGN
#ShortCalls #BullPutSpreads – Selling against ITM put spreads. Closing it now since this thing could be up 30 tomorrow….you never know.
Bought REGN OCT 19 2018 415.0 Calls @ .12 (sold for 1.65)
Sold REGN OCT 26 2018 415.0 Call @ 1.40
TNA
#LongCalls #LEAPS – I’ll be out all day tomorrow so have to take care of some of this earlier than I wanted to. But….this was still a fat finger trade on the buy. 😦 😦
Bought to Close TNA OCT 19 2018 70.0 Calls @ .63 (sold for 1.68)
Sold TNA OCT 26 2018 70.0 Calls @ 1.97
ADS
#Shortputs #IRA – Another one bouncing nicely after earnings. Got a decent fill so booking it. Plenty of cash freed up now for other opportunities…
Bought to Close ADS JAN 18 2019 180.0 Put @ 1.90 (sold for 5.30)
T
#ShortPuts #IRA – This is one I’ve been debating about. Since last two earnings haven’t gone all that great I’ve decided to book it since it’s a slightly larger position than I normally do. Maybe they can disappoint again and I can re-sell.
Bought to Close T JAN 18 2019 30.0 Put @ .53 (sold for 1.59)
PM
#ShortPuts #IRA – Nice earnings bounce running up to resistance. Gotta book it and see who the next earnings implosion will be.
Bought to Close PM DEC 21 2018 75.0 Put @ .46 (sold for 2.60)
Bought to Close PM JAN 18 2019 75.0 Put @ .72 (sold for 2.87)
TQQQ
Rolled the October 26, 65 calls to November 2, 66 calls for a credit of .16 cents. These are against my January 2021, 60 calls.
TQQQ
rolled my 66.5 calls from October 26 to November 2, 67 calls for a credit of .17 cents. I like to roll if I can get a better strike price and premium.
AXP Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $AXP reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72%
April 18, 2018 AC 7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC 5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC 9.02% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC 0.90%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC -12.10% (Biggest DOWN)
Oct. 21, 2015 AC -5.24%
Avg + or – 4.03%
Bias -0.13%, so really no significant bias up or down.
With stock at 102.70, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 98.76 to 106.64
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.56 to 106.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 90.27 to 115.13
What are you guys doing?!…
What are you guys doing?! I go mt bike for 2 hours and the market is melting down again.
#rolling and adjusting. Everything hedged so not too bad on paper, still waiting for a ton of short options to decay but the volatility is keeping the prices up. Good for when I can roll.
/CL I had a stop loss on the strangle and it must have triggered early in the morning when oil was down 2. Lost $750 as it closed at 0.87. Re-entered 57 DTE strangle but went wider, delta 4s and sold the 55/86 strangle at 0.28.
LNG lot 1 66 cc rolled out 22 DTE for 1.25. Cb now 61.28
LNG lot 2 66 CC rolled out 22 DTE for 1.24 credit. Cb 62.39
#fuzzy
XBI 87/95 2019 LEAP rolled out to 43 DTE for 0.28 credit. Cb now 4.05.
Sitting on my hands for another 1-3 weeks, then big expirations which should free up a lot of cash. Hopefully things stay on sale:)
Hope everyone is doing well and making some $ on the volatility.
#jadelizard DOCU tastyTrade idea sold…
#jadelizard DOCU
tastyTrade idea sold Dec. 21 35/49/50 for 1.58. Short 35 put, short 49 call, long 50 call
WYNN
#LongCalls #LEAPS – I’ll wait for a confirmation of the earnings date before the next sale…
Bought to Close WYNN OCT 19 2018 123.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.07)
TRADES:
TWLO STO 10/19/18 69.0 PUTS @1.05
TWLO STO 10/19/18 72.5 CALLS @.85 Will buy stock to cover if necessary. Tanked recently.
This one goes to eleven
#LongLEAPs Bought $TQQQ Jan 2020 66.67 call for 11.00, adding to my position. I forgot to sell short-term calls on Tuesday’s rally, but that’s the plan!
TNA
#ShortPuts #IRA – Adding to a Jan ladder….
Sold TNA JAN 18 2019 55.0 Put @ 2.50
#philosophy question WYNN I am…
#philosophy question WYNN
I am wondering what the gang thinks of this situation;
August 8 I was assigned 100 shares of WYNN at 165 from a put spread. My cost basis is 141, the price of the stock is 116 right now. I’ve been selling covered calls and will be at it awhile unless..
Does it make sense to sell the shares and free up the capital? I could sell puts to work back to even, same risk profile but only need about $2,000 in margin.
Earnings are soon as is a .75 dividend so wouldn’t do anything right away.
Thanks
SKX Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC 41.44% (Biggest UP)
July 20, 2017 AC 0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC 19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC 6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 3.93%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC -31.50% (Biggest DOWN)
Avg + or – 16.74%
Bias -3.54%, a negative bias on earnings
With stock at 26.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 22.70 to 30.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 22.06 to 30.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 15.52 to 37.48
UVXY
#LongPuts #LEAPS – Selling shorter term calls against shorter term puts which were sold against long LEAP puts….whew! Since I’d like to see UVXY hold it’s head up as long as possible (is a year too much to ask? 🙂 ) I’ll be selling against recent highs.
Sold UVXY OCT 26 2018 60.0 Call @ 2.00
Sold UVXY NOV 16 2018 70.0 Call @ 3.40
ISRG Earnings Analysis
#Earnings $ISRG reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 19, 2018 AC -0.86%
April 17, 2018 AC 8.17% (Biggest UP)
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -2.12%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC 3.39%
July 20, 2017 AC -4.55%
April 18, 2017 AC 6.36%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC 5.09%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -5.56% (Biggest DOWN)
July 19, 2016 AC 4.63%
April 19, 2016 AC 3.34%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC 1.89%
Oct. 20, 2015 AC 5.58%
Avg + or – 4.30%
Bias +2.11%, an upside bias on earning
With stock at 542.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 510.43 to 573.57
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 518.72 to 565.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 497.72 to 586.28
Ticks nix my VIX pick
#LongPuts I still got two weeks left on my long $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts. But market isn’t cooperating yet, so I want to add to the probability that I’ll catch the drop.
Bought to Open $VIX Nov 20th 16 puts for 1.10.
GPC done and done
#PreEarnings Sold to close $GPC Oct 19th 100 calls for .25. Bought for 1.28, avg price.
UVXY
#VXXGame Highest Strikes
Sold $UVXY Dec 21st 112 call for 3.10 (yesterday)
Sold $UVXY March 112 call for 5.25 (today)
BOIL adding to Jan
Sold $BOIL Jan 18 50 call @ 2.87
EWZ TUR
#ShortPuts #IRA – Nice run for both of these off their lows so freeing up some ammo and booking most of the gains early.
Bought to Close EWZ JAN 18 2019 28.0 Put @ .16 (sold for 1.87)
Bought to Close EWZ JAN 18 2019 29.0 Put @ .21 (sold for 2.24)
Bought to Close EWZ JAN 18 2019 30.0 Put @ .31 (sold for 2.10)
Bought to Close EWZ JAN 18 2019 35.0 Put @ 1.04 (sold in the money for 4.46)
Bought to Close TUR FEB 15 2019 16.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for 1.21)
TWLO Bouncing Small short 70.0…
TWLO Bouncing Small short 70.0 Puts 10/19
UVXY
#ShortCalls – If I can get that much of it in less than a week I’ll take it…
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 21 2018 95.0 Call @ 3.19 (sold for 8.25 last Thursday)
BOILing over again
#ContangoETFs
Sold $BOIL Dec 45 call for 2.45
Sold $BOIL Jan 45 for 3.80, adding to my position
#earnings #shortstrangles AA sold Nov….
#earnings #shortstrangles AA
sold Nov. 16, 32/41 strangle for 1.05
TWLO TRADE, I never traded…
TWLO TRADE, I never traded this before, and wanted to get the feel for this stock, so only did 1 contract.
TRADES:
TWLO STO 10/19/18 70.0 PUT @.84
TNDM STO 10/19/18 47.0 PUTS @.30 Have some underwater 37.0 calls, so this trade is to mitigate the calls losses.
They both can’t go under. ;>)
A Pre-earnings trade preVALEs
#PreEarnings Sold to close $VALE Oct 26th 15.5 calls for .70. This is a double-sized position, so I closed half. Leaving the other half. Avg purchase price .477.
