#Earnings #Assignment Assigned at 34.00 on only one of my 13 puts on $Z. Cost basis 32.55. The rest will be assigned tonight unless I get an exit today. No big worry with a low stock price.
Tag Archives: Earnings
ROKU Earnings
#Earnings – Stand back….this thing could be at 30 or 100 now that I’m in. After WTW and OLED I’m only doing a single strangle.
Sold 1 ROKU NOV 9 2018 50.0/70.0 Strangle @ 2.54
SQ trade
#Earnings Since we have two days for this to drift around, I’m shooting for the center, hoping that any gap will be closed by Friday.
Sold to open $SQ Nov 9th 77.5/82.5/87.5 #IronButterfly for 4.00. Max risk 1.00.
TWLO closed for now
#Earnings This doesn’t appear that it will stop. Of course, once one decides that, that’s where it will stop.
But I’m looking for this to go higher. I looked at the lifetime chart, and every gap up is NOT filled… stock continues higher and never revisits the opening low on post-earnings day. This, however, is a gigantic move. I’m going to look to sell some OTM puts, and then wait for higher prices to try to sell calls or strangles.
BTC $TWLO Nov 9th 85 calls for 10.55. Strangles sold yesterday for 1.96.
TWLO & Z… in the vice
#Earnings… Should have closed both of these right at the open. Getting killed on both ends.
Short the $Z 34/47 strangles
Short the $TWLO 60/85 strangles
$Z will be manageable at such a low stock price. $TWLO is unpredictable because it could run for a very long time without stopping. Watching for now. Will roll as necessary.
WYNN earnings analysis
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO 8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC 5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC 7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC 1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC 15.83% Biggest UP
Oct. 15, 2015 AC -1.16%
Avg (+ or -) 6.15%
Bias 0.54%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 112.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 103.05 to 120.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 105.12 to 118.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 94.27 to 129.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
SQ earnings analysis
#Earnings $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 11 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.65%
May 2, 2018 AC 1.13%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 0.30%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC 3.40%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -4.68%
May 3, 2017 AC 8.86%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC 14.02% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.41%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC 8.42%
May 5, 2016 AC -21.68% Biggest DOWN
March 9, 2016 AC -6.06%
Avg + or – 7.60%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 71.15 to 86.85
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 73.00 to 85.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.7%): 61.87 to 96.13
Open for requests on other symbols.
TWLO Earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies – Just for fun…need about half the expected move. Low probability but low risk.
Sold 1 TWLO NOV 9 2018 66.0/71.0/76.0 Iron Fly @ 4.26
TWLO earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $TWLO Nov 9th 60/85 strangles for 1.96. I am -16.7% and +18.1% OTM.
TWLO earnings analysis
#Earnings $TWLO reports tonight. I missed this one on my side chart, so including analysis here. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 8 quarters (its entire history).
Aug. 6, 2018 AC 18.69%
May 8, 2018 AC 18.17%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 16.18%
Nov. 8, 2017 AC -6.82%
Aug. 7, 2017 AC 9.99%
May 2, 2017 AC -26.31%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 1.55%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.15%
Avg + or – 12.61%
Bias 3.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 72.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 61.53 to 82.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.92 to 81.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (26.3%): 53.06 to 90.94
Open for requests on other symbols.
Z earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings Sold to Open $Z Nov 9th 34/47 strangles for 1.45.
$Z reports Wednesday morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 6, 2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
May 7, 2018 AC -1.44%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -2.67%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC 2.67%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -9.05%
May 4, 2017 AC 9.29%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC -6.37%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC 6.32%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -4.73%
May 3, 2016 AC 12.05% Biggest UP
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -0.89%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC -6.27%
Avg + or – 6.38%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 40.60 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 34.57 to 46.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 38.01 to 43.19
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 34.60 to 46.60
Expected move is same as MAX moves. Trade carefully..
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings AXDX Jeff-do you have…
#earnings AXDX
Jeff-do you have earnings data on AXDX? Thanks
#earnings #shortstraddle #closing FAST October…
#earnings #shortstraddle #closing FAST
October 8, sold a Nov. 16, 57.50 straddle for 5.14, closed today for 4.55.
BKNG earnings analysis (formerly PCLN)
#Earnings $BKNG reports today after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -5.01%
May 9, 2018 AC -4.74%
Feb. 27, 2018 AC 6.77%
Nov. 6, 2017 AC -13.51% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -6.93%
May 9, 2017 AC -4.51%
Feb. 27, 2017 AC 5.64%
Nov. 7, 2016 AC 6.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC 3.98%
May 4, 2016 BO -7.50%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO 11.24% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2015 BO -9.56%
Avg + or – 7.17%
Bias -1.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.
***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +15.6%.
With stock at 1880.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1750.90 to 2009.10
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1745.28 to 2014.72
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 1626.01 to 2133.99
Open for requests on other symbols.
REGN earnings analysis
#Earnings $REGN reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO 2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO 6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO 1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO 4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 4, 2015 BO -2.42%
Avg + or – 3.50%
Bias +0.60%, no significant bias on earnings.
***Since it’s only Monday, I checked 5-day moves. Only 1 quarter of the above exceeded these ranges, at +9.5%.
With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 329.66 to 378.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 366.38 to 341.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 329.26 to 378.74
Open for requests on other symbols.
SBUX dbl calendar
#Earnings Biggest move in years means #DoubleCalendar is no good…
Sold to close $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 double calendars closed for .07. Bought yesterday for .48.
I closed the calls, but the left the short put to expire and the long put as a lottery ticket next week.
AAPL TEVA Earnings
#Earnings – Both max loss. A 3 lot and a 1 lot. Gave back a small portion of the STMP and BIDU winners.
Bought to Close 3 TEVA NOV 2 2018 18.5/20.0/21.5 Iron Flies @ 1.50 (sold for 1.17)
Bought to Close 1 AAPL NOV 2 2018 212.5/220.0/227.5 Iron Fly @ 7.45 (sold for 6.25)
SBUX explodes
#Earnings Today’s up move is its biggest since April 2009… even the intraday high is biggest since that date.
Guess I picked the wrong day to trade it neutrally.
ANET closed
#Earnings BTC $ANET Nov 2nd 270 calls for .20. The 202.5/270 strangles sold yesterday for 2.025. I’ll let the puts expire.
AAPL closed
#Earnings BTC $AAPL Nov 2nd 205 puts for .20. Sold yesterday for 1.60. The 232.5 calls were sold for 1.12 (avg price) and I’ll let them expire.
EOG closed
#Earnings Sold to close $EOG Nov2/Nov9 106 #DoubleCalendar for 2.80. Bought yesterday for 1.90.
In other EOG news, this was the last of my #PreEarnings trades, all of which failed. My long 125 calls are worthless. Plain & simply, these ain’t gonna work if a correction hits. My mistake was entering most of these trades AFTER a downside warning hit. Lesson learned!
The win on the calendar makes me breakeven on EOG, so it’s a sunny day.
AAPL Earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies -Throwing a little house money at this one. Risk 125 to make 625 selling an iron fly 7.50 wide on a 10 dollar expected move.
Sold AAPL NOV 2 2018 212.5/220.0/227.5 Iron Fly @ 6.25
SBUX dbl calendar
#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Nov2/Nov9 59 #DoubleCalendar for .48.
Trying for an $EOG 106 calendar for 1.90 but may bail if I don’t get filled.
WTW Earnings
#Earnings – Skipping BABA but really want to do something. Since I’ve got WTW stock already (small position) with DITM covered calls I’m overlaying a Jade Lizard on top of that skewed to the downside.
Sold WTW NOV 2 2018 62.0/70.0/72.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.20
OLED
Not really an #Earnings trade. Had been selling calls against some DITM short put spreads. With the yuuge rally into earnings the calls are taking some heat. With all the premium available I’m busting up the calls into short strangles and skewed fairly bullish.
Rolled OLED NOV 2 2018 125.0 Calls to NOV 2 2018 123.0/138.0 Strangles @ .05 credit
AAPL calls
#Earnings I’m legging into $AAPL short Nov 2nd 232.5 calls, against the 205 puts I sold this morning. Filled on 1 so far at 1.02. Next fill is for 1.10.
ANET earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings Sold to Open $ANET Nov 2nd 202.5/270 strangles for 2.05.
$ANET reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -5.26%
May 3, 2018 AC -8.51%
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -18.98% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 AC 11.21%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC 19.43% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 AC 3.22%
Feb. 16, 2017 AC 18.85%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 1.49%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -0.33%
May 5, 2016 AC 5.11%
Feb. 18, 2016 AC 11.77%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 13.71%
Avg + or – 9.82%
Bias 4.31%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 237.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 215.96 to 258.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 214.17 to 260.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.4%): 191.35 to 283.65
Open for requests on other symbols.
W closed
#Earnings BTC $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for .24. Sold strangles yesterday for 1.82.
STMP earnings
#Earnings – Since there’s other earnings trades coming up that I’d like to try I’m bailing on this one. Got well over half and shipping it on down the road since it’s really looking weak here.
Bought to Close STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.00 (sold for 5.10)
CI trade closed
#Earnings Bought to close $CI 200/222.5 strangles for .25. Sold yesterday for 1.97.
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO 3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO 2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO 0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO 5.08% Biggest UP
May 5, 2016 BO 3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%
Oct. 27, 2015 BO 4.04%
Avg + or – 3.25%
Bias 0.57%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 143.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 134.69 to 151.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 138.36 to 147.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 134.56 to 151.44
Expected move is same as Maximum move, which is rare.
Open for requests on other symbols.
STMP earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – Taking the upside risk off the lizard and still waiting on the put side. Covered calls on the put side at a 170 basis wouldn’t be the end of the world so watching it for now.
Bought to Close STMP NOV 2 2018 215.0/220.0 Bear Call Spread @ .10
Originally:
Sold 1 STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.10
AAPL trade
#Earnings Sold $AAPL Nov 2nd 205 puts for 1.60. Will sell calls if we can rally. I sold early, thinking this morning weakness will be bought. Hopefully the whole day doesn’t turn ugly!
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 AC 5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC 4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC 2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC 6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC 6.49% Biggest UP
April 26, 2016 AC -6.25%
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -6.57% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2015 AC 4.12%
Avg + or – 4.50%
Bias 1.22%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 218.00 the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 206.86 to 229.14
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 208.19 to 227.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.6%): 203.68 to 232.15
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings #shortstraddle #longputs TEVA DENN…
#earnings #shortstraddle #longputs TEVA DENN
TEVA Sold Nov. 16, 20 straddle for 2.55
DENN bought Nov. 16, 17.50 put for .55
Had to hit the road, no fill on W, trading from I80 tomorrow maybe.
PVTL covered calls
#Earnings Got assigned this stock with cost basis of 20.35.
Sold $PVTL Nov 16th 21 covered calls for .70
TEVA earnings
#Earnings #ironFlies – Can’t help myself. Threw it out there and let it sit and finally got filled. Risk 33 to make 117. 1.50 wide on a 1.83 expected move.
Sold TEVA NOV 2 2018 18.5/20.0/21.5 Iron Flies @ 1.17
TEVA earnings analysis
#Earnings
At @thomberg1201‘s request:
$TEVA reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO -9.46%
May 3, 2018 BO -4.40%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -10.59%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -19.90%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -24.00% Biggest DOWN
May 11, 2017 BO 2.04%
Feb. 13, 2017 BO 5.62% Biggest UP
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -8.35%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO 3.50%
May 9, 2016 BO 5.05%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -4.97%
Oct. 29, 2015 BO -3.38%
Avg + or – 8.44%
Bias -5.74%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 20.15, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 18.11 to 22.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.45 to 21.85
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24%): 15.31 to 24.99
Open for requests on other symbols.
CI earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings
Sold to Open $CI Nov 2nd 200/222.5 strangles for 1.96. I’ve ever traded this healthcare stock, but its moves on earnings are subdued, and it also appears to have been little affected by recent volatility.
$CI reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 3.26%
May 3, 2018 BO 0.30%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -1.60%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO 0.27%
Aug. 4, 2017 BO -1.98%
May 5, 2017 BO 2.24%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO 0.44%
Nov. 3, 2016 BO -0.45%
July 29, 2016 BO -5.16%
May 6, 2016 BO -3.02%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 1.71%
Nov. 6, 2015 BO 0.30%
Avg + or – 1.73%
Bias -0.31%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 210.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 200.70 to 219.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 206.37 to 213.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.2%): 199.16 to 220.84
Open for requests on other symbols.
W (Wayfair) earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings
Sold to Open $W Nov 2nd 85/135 strangles for 1.818 (avg price). This stock sometimes can move big, but not always. These strikes are just outside the max moves of the stock.
$W reports in the morning. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 2, 2018 BO 7.54%
May 2, 2018 BO 13.65%
Feb. 22, 2018 BO -22.71% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -15.54%
Aug. 8, 2017 BO -6.26%
May 9, 2017 BO 20.73% Biggest UP
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -6.49%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -4.13%
Aug. 9, 2016 BO -19.58%
May 9, 2016 BO 10.16%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO 10.62%
Nov. 10, 2015 BO -13.98%
Avg + or – 12.62%
Bias -2.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 110.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 94.46 to 126.54
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 96.65 to 124.55
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.7%): 85.48 to 135.72
Open for requests on other symbols.
STMP earnings
#Earnings – Taking a shot with another #JadeLizard. No upside risk. Selling just outside the expected move on the downside and just inside the expected move on the upside. But….this thing could go anywhere. It’s had some crazy moves.
Sold 1 STMP NOV 2 2018 175.0/215.0/220.0 Jade Lizard @ 5.10
FB and ANTM closed
#Earnings
Sold $FB Nov 2nd 145 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.65.
BTC $ANTM Nov 2nd 277.5/282.5 call spreads for .20. #IronCondor sold yesterday for 1.10. Leaving 247.5/242.5 put side to expire or close cheaply, since it’s pretty far OTM.
BIDU earnings
#Earnings – Good enough…I’ll take it.
Bought to Close BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 1.12 (sold for 3.55)
STMP earnings analysis
#Earnings I’ve confirmed from their website that earnings will be after the close today, even though some sources have not confirmed themselves.
Below are details on $STMP earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC 8.43%
May 3, 2018 AC 3.91%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC 11.00%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -22.59% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2017 AC 35.88%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.40%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -1.60%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 6.63%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.23%
May 9, 2016 AC -5.32%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 21.04%
Nov. 5, 2015 AC 38.10% Biggest UP
Avg + or – 13.43%
Bias 7.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 205.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 179.12 to 231.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 177.91 to 233.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (38.1%): 127.20 to 283.80
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings #closing #ironcondor AMZN October…
#earnings #closing #ironcondor AMZN
October 25, sold Nov. 16 IC for 1.75, bought today for 1.26.
#earnings #closing BIDU EA Bought…
Closing FB
Bought to close $FB Nov 16 120/172.50 strangles @ .52. Sold for 1.67 yesterday.
#Earnings
BIDU closed
#Earnings
BTC $BIDU 150/155/205/210 condors for .10. Sold yesterday for .70. (Filled right at the bell)
BTC $BIDU Nov 2nd 155/205 strangles for .30. Sold yesterday for 1.80. (filled six minutes later)
FB dbl cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $FB Nov2/Nov9 145 #DoubleCalendar for 1.60.
#earnings #shortstrangles EA TastyTrade idea,…
#earnings #shortstrangles EA BIDU
TastyTrade idea, sold Nov. 16, 75/105 for 1.78.
BIDU followed Jeff sold Nov. 16, 150/210 for 3.07, took all day and a couple adjustments to fill
#earnings #closing #shortstrangles VLO October…
#earnings #closing #shortstrangles VLO
October 24, sold Nov. 16, 75/100 strangle for 1.19, closed today for .69, finally able to close something instead of roll.
BIDU earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $BIDU 155/205 strangles for 1.75.
In smaller accounts, sold 150/155/205/210 condors for .70.
Strikes -14.4% and +13.3% OTM
I went father out than max moves, since premium was there and market in volatile.
FB DubCal
Bot FB Nov2/Nov9 144 double calendar @ 1.51. EM 12.
Profit tent allowing for 20-point move. Vol collapse will favor profit if FB stays within EM.
BIDU earnings
#Earnings – Selling a #JadeLizard based on Jeff’s data of average move on earnings. No upside risk and I’ll just manage the put on an implosion.
Sold 1 BIDU NOV 2 2018 167.5/190.0/192.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.55
ANTM earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $ANTM Nov 2nd 242.5/247.5/277.5/282.5 iron condors for 1.10.
$ANTM reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 BO 0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO 6.15% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2018 BO 1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO 5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO 3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO 4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO 4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -4.74% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 28, 2015 BO -1.99%
Avg + or – 3.40%
Bias 1.08%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 264.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 252.40 to 275.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.01 to 272.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.2%): 247.76 to 290.24
Open for requests on other symbols.
WYNN earnings
#Earnings confirmed Nov 7th after the close…
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC 9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC 3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC 2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC 1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC 7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC 15.52% Biggest UP
Nov. 4, 2015 AC 4.63%
Avg + or – 6.08%
Bias 1.24%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 129.24 to 154.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 133.36 to 150.64
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 115.08 to 168.92
Open for requests on other symbols.
FEYE earnings analysis
by request of @thomberg1201
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC 9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC 0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC 12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC 12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC -22.87% Biggest DOWN
Avg + or – 10.82%
Bias -4.99%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.20, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 14.12 to 18.28
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 14.45 to 17.95
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (22.9%): 12.50 to 19.90
Open for requests on other symbols.
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC 5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC 4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC 9.45%
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%
April 28, 2016 AC 4.45%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC 9.84% Biggest UP
Oct. 29, 2015 AC 10.93%
Avg + or – 6.34%
Bias 1.55%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 180.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 163.68 to 196.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 168.60 to 191.40
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 160.33 to 199.67
Expected move is close to Max moves. May be good for a strangle or condor. But it’s only Tuesday, and in this market, serious decay may not kick in until later in the week.
Open for requests on other symbols.
CTSH calendar?
CMI earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMI reports in the morning before the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 31, 2018 BO 4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64%
May 2, 2017 BO 6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO 3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO 1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO 7.62% Biggest UP
Oct. 27, 2015 BO -8.69% Biggest DOWN
Avg + or – 4.19%
Bias -0.42%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.50, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 125.81 to 141.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.91 to 139.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 121.90 to 145.10
Open for requests on other symbols.
AMZN
#Earnings – Doesn’t look like a big bounce is coming so closing the put side of the iron fly at less than max loss and saving the exercise fees. Big wide iron condor sold separately will cover the loss on the fly (maybe even a net small winner). Wild earnings week that was overall green but not sure if it was worth it…LOL
Bought to Close 1750/1720 BuPS @ 29.58 (saved .42)
Bye bye DubCal flock
EXPE STC @ 1.90 x2, BTO avg price @ 1.11 (win)
CMG STC @ 8, BTO @ 4.35 (win)
FSLR STC @ .90 x3, BTO @ .76 (win)
GILD STC @ 1.21 x2, BTO avg price .99 (win)
INTC STC @1.02 x4, BTO @ .57 (win)
MAT STC @ .30 x 8, BTO @ .19 (win)
SNAP STC @ .04 x10, BTO @ avg price .14 (loss)
WDC STC @ .01 x2, BTO @ avg price .93 (loss)
CHTR STC @ 1.66, BTO @ 3.53 (loss)
COG STC @ .69 x5, BTO @ .39 (win)
CL STC @ .10 x4, BTO avg price .45 (loss)
TSLA calls
#Earnings I sold the 300 way too early on Tuesday, before I heard their earnings date was moving. I’ll be selling a strangle later today.
BTC $TSLA Oct 26th 300 call for 13.00. Sold for 4.60 on Tuesday.
BTC $TSLA Oct 26th 330 call for 1.16. Sold for 2.05 on Tuesday.
Morning Action
#earnings
At the bell, filled on closing $GOOGL Oct 26th 1000/980 put spreads for .35. Condor sold yesterday for 3.00. I’ll let the calls expire.
Closed $INTC Oct26/Nov2 45 dbl calendars for 1.06. Bought yesterday for .54.
Closed $AMZN Oct 26th 1600/1575 put spreads for 2.70. Condor sold yesterday for 3.75. I’ll let the calls expire.
The $CL and $GILD dbl cals not faring as well. Waiting for a hopeful rise in the stocks.
Double Calendars
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Followed Mama on three of these ideas…
Bought $CL Oct26/Nov2 64 dbl calendars for .44
Bought $INTC Oct26/Nov2 45 dbl calendars for .54
Bought $GILD Oct26/Nov2 70 dbl calendars for .95
#earnings #ironcondor AMZN Following the…
#earnings #ironcondor AMZN
Following the AMZN condors, sold Nov. 16, 1450/1460/2010/2220 for 1.75, thanks all
GOOGL condor
#Earnings #ironcondor
Sold to open $GOOGL Oct 26th 980/1000/1175/1195 condors for 3.00
Biggest UP move: 5.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -5.4% , Average move: 3.5%.
Stock is up to 1110, so my strikes are +5.9 and -9.9% OTM.
GOOGL earnings analysis
#Earnings
Look how docile GOOGL is… its range has been small, and I’ve usually skipped it due to lack of premium. But with IV up, premium is huge at the ranges below. If I go back to the 13th Quarter there was a 16% up move, so beware that despite the recent quiet, GOOGL can move big.
$GOOGL reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 23, 2018 AC 3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 4.26%
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC 3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC 0.27%
July 28, 2016 AC 3.32%
April 21, 2016 AC -5.41%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC 1.31%
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 5.60%
Avg + or – 3.51%
Bias +0.22%, very slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 1095.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1035.20 to 1154.80
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1056.56 to 1133.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 1033.68 to 1156.32
Open for requests on other symbols.
AMZN condor
#Earnings #IronCondor
Sold to open $AMZN Oct 26th 1575/1600/1950/1975 condors for 3.75.
IV is jacked up on most, so it allows for wide strangles and condors. Biggest UP move: 13.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.6%, Average move: 4.7%. My trade is +11.4% on the upside and -8.3% on the downside. It is a bullish positioning because of the historical ranges, but even if we drop I don’t think we can get to 1600.
Another day, another DubCal
Today, I looked for cheap trades that met the criteria. There are way too many. I may add to these near the close.
Bot EXPE Oct26/Nov2 117 double cal @ 1.26
Bot FSLR Oct26/Nov2 42.5 double cal @ .76 x2
Bot GILD Oct26/Nov2 69 double cal @ 1.01
Bot INTC Oct26/Nov2 44 double cal @ .58 x2
Bot MAT Oct 26/Nov2 13.5c double cal @ .19 x4
Bot SNAP Oct26/Nov2 7c double cal @ .15 x5
Bot WDC Oct26/Nov2 54.5 double cal @ .99
Bot CL Oct26/Nov2 64 double cal @ .44 x2
Bot COG Oct 26/Nov2 21 double cal @ .39 x3
Have orders in to buy CHTR and CMG but the bid-ask is wide so nothing yet.
#earnings #shortstrangles #closing MSFT Yesterday…
#earnings #shortstrangles #closing MSFT
Yesterday sold Nov. 16, 95/115 strangle for 1.81, bought today for 1.21
AMZN trade
#Earnings Sold $AMZN Oct 26th 1710p/1740p/1740c/1770c #IronButterfly for 28.10.
Exited my mistake long for 28.10 and added the correct short IB.
This is 1.90 of risk for a max gain of 28.10. It’s impossible to make the full 28.10, but if price is within 28.10 from 1740 tomorrow, you’ll win. This is better than I get for this trade usually, I guess do to elevated volatility on the market. You can’t beat the R/R.
I’m going to try another later in the day, perhaps centered higher in the belief that the stock will go up tonight.
DubCal update
Another profitable day playing earnings. I am getting nervous about these trades. If the market continues up, some of these could easily blow out to the upside for full loss. Gotta keep max risk in mind.:-)
STC TWTR @ 1.45 x2. Bot @ 1.29 (gain)
STC TSCO @ 1.65 x3. Bot @ 1.04 (gain)
STC MSFT @ 3.39. Bot @ 2.15 (gain)
STC SHOP @ 8.56. Bot @ 7.00 (gain)
STC GRUB @ 1.70. Bot @ 3.40 (loss)
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 26, 2018 AC 0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC 3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC 2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC 13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC 0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC 0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC 9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 22, 2015 AC 6.22%
Avg + or – 4.69%
Bias +1.56%, slight upside bias on earnings.
With stock at 1720.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 1608.25 to 1831.75
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1639.38 to 1800.63
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1492.79 to 1947.21
Open for requests on other symbols.
Options Bistro 