hcgdavis 8:40 am on Friday, January 26, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), pietrades, SPYcraft ( 95 )

Bunch o trades, good thing…

Bunch o trades, good thing I had the day out of the office.

I believe everyone here has heard John Carter talk about the “plane trade”. Whenever he is on a plane and cannot trade the market goes haywire. I have the ski and kiteboard trade that is similar but magically did not happen yesterday. The Theta crush was nice, decay was $1400 yesterday and crushed to $40 this morning. So anyway I took it and went flat and used the $ to set up some #pietrades for next week.

First a few observations now that I am into my taxes.
1. It seems my best trades were #pietrades and anything I had basically sold naked or converted to a CC after assignment.
2. #fuzzy trades work well for recovery. Exhibit SWKS dropped 17 points on me after earnings. I rolled as much as I could then converted to a put based #fuzzy when it kept dropping. Managed to close out for $1635 profit today, it could have been really ugly and took about 13 weeks for it to pay off.
3. Getting out of #fuzzy trades is not as profitable as a CC or being assigned the put. The bid-ask on the longer dated options cuts into the profit. When the put assigns or the CC assigns you have basically sucked every penny of time value out of that option. However on a percentage basis synthetics are much better ROC.
4. Finding anything not way extended at the moment is really hard but I found a few for #pietrades
5. Laddering #pietrades usually does not work because you end up getting assigned on all of them at the same time. Better to keep them weekly. There is always something out there with decent premiums and a not too bad looking chart.

SVXY rolled Feb 2 105 puts to feb 110 for 2.92 credits. Sold for 3.42 so if assigned the cost basis will be 104
Did the same for Feb 16 105 to 110 for 2.05 credit. sold for 3.42.

SWKS closed out the final put #fuzzy at 100/102 for 13.10 credit. Made $1635 on the trade after rolling for 13 weeks. Good to be out with earnings next week.

WDC Closed out the put/call #fuzzy 82.5 strikes for 13.32 and 13.15 credits. Total profit $2600 but not great, I was up over 15k on that trade at one point. From now on will take the money early if the profit is there!!!!!!!!!

#pietrades
1. AAPL new CC for next week 165 strike for 163.43 runs through earnings but hope it will close on Friday 2/2 max profit $471 on 3 contracts if it closes.

2. GM 2/2 42.5 put for 0.53, 3 contracts for $156 after commisions

3. GILD open for 28 DTE 72 call is way ITM so will let it expire in a few weeks.

So basically made $627 for this week in income on 2 new trades using a 50k account with some margin. Goal is 900 a week so fairly close. Once the GILD trade closes I think it is possible.

Hope everyone had a good week. Only trade I have until next Friday is the #spycraft /ES puts once they decay a little more.

Cheers 🙂

thomberg1201 8:38 am on Friday, January 26, 2018
Tags: pietrades, ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

#shortputs #pietrades IMAT Rolled Jan….

#shortputs #pietrades IMAT

Rolled Jan. 26 57.50 put to Feb. 2 for .55 credit, don’t want assignment this week

smasty 2:06 pm on Thursday, January 25, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), pietrades

Jan 25 #Fuzzy Land and…

Jan 25 #Fuzzy Land and #PieTrades

Another very nice day in Fuzzy Land here. I feel very balanced in the portfolio right now. Hedges are working on the trouble makers. JNJ–nice move today. EA–moved the wrong way but I’ve learned to stay patient on the earnings trades that have a 100% backtest win rate, and I keep them small. AAPL got cut today, when I ran the backtest on it today it only wins 25% of the time for earnings run up, so I was a goof to even have that trade on. BUT I had a pre-earnings trade on for BA today that ran up big in just a few hours. I’ve got a nice mix of shorts and longs. With volatility up, it’s easy to hedge the Fuzzy Bears with a strike that allows beautiful profit even if runover.

1. Closed the FLIR Earnings Run Up Fuzzy for 47% profit, $415
2. Opened hedged SPY Fuzzy Bear Feb 284/284/285 @ 2.54 Jan31 280 hedge @.53
3. Closed AAPL pre-earnings fuzzy for net $1115 loss….BUT
4. Opened BA pre-earnings fuzzy and closed it 3 hours later for $2100 profit
5. Rolled MU Hedges to next week, and opened a new MU Fuzzy (Mar 43/43/41 for 2.22). I’ve collected a net $4200 in MU hedges…MU can be a little dramatic (like a toddler in a store), but that’s what makes for nice premium to sell for hedges. So MU is now in 3 of my 4 accounts.
6. VIX I compared long calls to a long fuzzy for VIX…remember the grocery store question? ATM Fuzzy costs the same as $2 OTM long calls, with higher deltas on the Fuzzy for better performance. So I opened Mar 21 12/12/11 Fuzzy, unhedged, for 1.57 as an overall hedge. I’d like to layer more of these in as vol/price drops.
7. AMTD, there’s a sell program going on in this ticker, I’ve got lots of cycles in front of this for hedges, so rolled today from 58 to 56 calls. There was a LOT of call buying on this today, probably due to ETFC reporting. I didn’t see the call buying affect price though, like it usually does. It’s sitting on a 50% retracement here. I’m grateful for protective puts + hedges for a nice counterbalance.
8. Added 2 small-lot DIA unhedged fuzzies at the bottom today. Feb 263/263/261 @ 2.45
9. Added MGM pre-earnings run up Fuzzy (early I know) Feb23 36.5/36.5/35 for 1.13
10. Although not technically a fuzzy since it was a synthetic only, I made 422% on a BX-synthetic, buying yesterday at .09 and selling today at .47. 5x my entry price. That was an earnings run up play.

11. PieTrades: so far my only ticker is LMT for this campaign. Sold 327.5 puts on Monday, was able to cover 1/2 of them today for .05. I assume other half tomorrow morning. That will equal $680, thanks @hcgdavis LMT reports Monday morning, so Monday or Tue next week will be good for the next round.

hcgdavis 11:12 am on Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), pietrades, SPYcraft ( 95 )

SWKS closed half a #fuzzy…

SWKS closed half a #fuzzy the 100 put 2020 leap and the 104 9 DTE for 12.10 credit.

Starting clean out to get back to cash so I can restart #pietrades and #spycraft trades.

Will take me 2,9, 16, 23, and 30 days to have everything flat or until the time value is out of the short options, hopefully before then 🙂

hcgdavis 6:31 am on Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), pietrades, SPYcraft ( 95 )

#spycraft Since the market only…

#spycraft

Since the market only goes up now, sold a 35 DTE 2675 put for 4.65. No short the 2675 and 2615 puts for 35 DTE after closing the call side of the strangle yesterday. Easier to defend in 1 direction as well.

#fuzzy, #pietrades

honkhonk81 10:19 am on Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Tags: pietrades

#Pietrades Somewhat volatile, but works…

#Pietrades Somewhat volatile, but works for me. NKTR

smasty 1:54 pm on Monday, January 22, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), pietrades, UOA ( 12 )

Jan 22 #PieTrades LMT is…

Jan 22 #PieTrades
LMT is one of my all time favorite tickers. I feel like I’ve been a grimy street urchin staring in the the window of a sweet shop as I missed the last LMT swing, and also w/ earnings next week, been covering my eyes on it. But, today gave a great opp for my first Pie Trades! Sold this week 327 puts for .90 x 8.

Boatloads of #Fuzzy trades
1. Closed all the “twisted fuzzy” trades for small gains/losses (less than $100 per)
2 Opened new unhedged fuzzies on SPY, Feb 282/282/279 for 1.93 (only 4-lots)
3. I’ve mentioned the “Gorilla Trades” service before. Pretty great service. Their picks are very often best played with shares vs. options (monthlies, thin). But I’m tired of getting left behind on the myriad of explosive moves in their portfolio. So I’m using unhedged fuzzies, small lot, to create a shotgun approach in building a Gorilla portfolio. On Friday I put on a 3-lot unhedged fuzzy on Gorilla pick INGN, it was closed today for 357% gain. Additional openings today: BAH, MYGN, IP.
4. Unhedged fuzzy on MSFT from Friday was closed for 40% gain, then placed again immediately after seeing #UOA on it. I now have Apr 90/90/85 for 2.45 x 10.

thomberg1201 10:47 am on Monday, January 22, 2018
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 ), pietrade ( 143 ), pietrades, ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

#pietrades #coveredcalls #shortputs EXAS Dec….

#pietrades #coveredcalls #shortputs EXAS
Dec. 14 I sold a Jan. 19, 48 put for 1.70. Looked good until Friday afternoon, was assigned. Sold a Jan. 26, 48 call for 1.30, cost basis of 45.. If I wouldn’t have spent the morning in a dental chair I would have done a little better on the call.

#pietrade

hcgdavis 10:15 am on Monday, January 22, 2018
Tags: pietrades

#pietrades Others to add, SSO…

#pietrades

Others to add, SSO and UPRO

If and when we ever get a full on reversal, we can then switch to selling puts on the inverse ETFs such as DOG, SQQQ, SDS. I looked at some of the others but these seemed to have the best premiums, weeklies, and tighter bid-ask spreads. I am sure there are others I may have missed.

hcgdavis 8:01 am on Sunday, January 21, 2018
Tags: pietrade ( 143 ), pietrades

#pietrades A few names to…

#pietrades

A few names to add
GLW (corning) for smaller accounts
AXP for medium accounts
QQQ for medium to large accounts
IWM for medium accounts
FSLR for medium accounts
TNA and FAS for medium
ERX for small to medium
SMH for medium
HD for large accounts
TAP for medium (beer money) 🙂
DIS for medium

Anyone else who finds others please post. 3 simple rules, stays in a range, good weekly premiums, and should have weekly options (not a requirement but makes management easier).

#pietrade

thomberg1201 11:16 am on Thursday, January 18, 2018
Tags: pietrades, ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

#pietrades #shortputs AMAT I saw…

#pietrades #shortputs AMAT
I saw AMAT in the list, I have a 52.50 put expiring tomorrow, so I sold a Jan. 26 57.50 for 1.09, stock is at 57.58, apparently recovering from the chip issue

1strangealien 8:01 am on Thursday, January 18, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), pietrades

XBI

#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Jan19’18 90 calls for 0.05, sold last week for 0.54. Waiting to sell for next week, the stock is bouncing after running down this morning. I’m liking this ticker (at the moment)!

Also closed a short term #Fuzzy in CRM that I hadn’t admitted to, stole the idea from @smasty160, made 0.78 on that one. Thanks Sue!

#pietrades

hcgdavis 6:11 pm on Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Tags: pietrades

#pietrades Here are some specifics…

#pietrades

Here are some specifics for what I think makes a good PIE stock for weekly trading.
1. perceived volatility but actually stays in a range. The higher the value the wider the range can be and still work.
2. ATM or OTM premiums of $1 or better. The more you get up front the less you have to recover later.
3. Weekly options.
4. Good volume (BX fits the bill except for the bid-ask spreads), I got hammered getting out of a trade last week. $300 profit was trimmed to 120 so it is off my list.
5. Steady pivot points or long term support/resistance. If it moves out of the ranges establishes a new range quickly.

So here is a list I am looking at broken down by size of account.
Small account AAL, GM, DAL, HAL, LNG, BAC (limited), ERX (triple), EXAS (new addition, thanks), AMAT, XOP, MU, AMD, NKE (not the best but can work), UNG since the split, INTC, TMUS, LUV

Medium account can move to WDC, SWKS, GILD, XBI, MA, V, WMT (a little bit), MON, BIB (no weeklies), UAL, RCL, WYNN, MAR, UTX, AMGN, UPS, CAT, NSC, ANDV (previously TSO and my biggest income producer, not as good since the merger), UDOW, IBB, VLO, UPRO, TQQQ, CELG, JPM, FB, AAPL, EXPE, UPS, TLT @fuzzballl suggestion

For those with really big accounts GS, BA, AAPL with some volume, SPY, LRCX, FDX, COST

Keep in mind a lot of these just went booster stage so I would wait until they establish a new range.
Also if I am assigned puts at a pivot point and have some buying power left I will often go CC with straddle puts at the assignment price. Juices returns a little more but also adds risk.

Please post any other tickers that look like they would work.

jsd501 12:36 pm on Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Tags: pietrades

EXAS

STO July 20, 30puts @1.20

#pietrades

hcgdavis 7:25 pm on Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), PerpetualRollingStrangles ( 116 ), pietrades, SPYcraft ( 95 )

I ran a little experiment…

I ran a little experiment for about 8 months last year, did not post because I was not sure how it was going to work out but here is another easy to manage, high return tactic. I got this from options income blueprint. I do not subscribe to this particular branch of it, but easy to understand and I reverse engineered it using different names. They were using AAPL, LNG, and GILD.

It is called perpetual income engine. Very simple, take about 2-5 stocks that tend to stay in a range with good option premium. Start by selling a 1 week put either ATM or 1 strike below. It is either assigned or is not. If it is assigned immediately take delivery of the stock and then on Monday sell the ATM or 1 strike out of the money covered call. If not assigned, then sell the next week put. It is very easy to implement and does not take much time.

I used 3 tickers last year, TSO which has since become ANDV, XBI, and WDC. As I am starting to review my trades from last year for taxes, I see how effective it was. It takes a while to sort everything out but the results were impressive given the simplicity.

8 months, 3 contracts each name so only tying up about 50,000 of capital earned a 57.7% return. Annualized 86.55% return. Pretty impressive given the simplicity. Obviously I will keep this going and will start posting my trades now. They will be known as #pietrades.

I do not have all the numbers yet, but the last year appears that naked puts and strangle selling was the most effective, followed by PIE trades, and a very close third goes to #fuzzies based on return on capital. However the #fuzzies worked the best for recovery of positions that went really bad. Not surprisingly given the one-sided market credit spreads did not do as well last year.

I am always looking for the most efficient way to use capital, make money, and give me more free time. Based on these results I will probably focus on those 3 strategies most of this year and will add in the occasional #spycraft when the volatility is decent.

#perpetualrollingstrangles