SPX…almost a free 55 point hedge?

How’s this sound for putting on decent protection for very little risk. Synthetic short stock with a protective call in SPX using Jan 2018. This would provide nice protection through the end of year.

(Keep in mind you could just buy a put instead but I feel like I could use the other positions somehow to help make a little extra if the market doesn’t fall…just not sure how yet. 🙂 )

The trade:

SPX Jan 2018 synthetic short stock at 2570 and buy a 2575 call for upside protection and sell weeklies to finance…

1. Net debit on this would be about 41.50 with another 5 points of upside risk for 46.50 max loss.
2. Trade would run for 12 weeks.
3. Would need to collect 3.90 of weekly premium to breakeven (assuming max loss)
4. Currently 3.90 weekly premium is at about 2515 so 55 points of downside room.
5. The weekly put could also be rolled down for additional gain if we do implode.
6. Continue selling 50 points below every week and trade does no worse than even while continually carrying 50 points of protection.
7. What’s the risk? Market rallies hard early in the trade forcing the 50 point sale to be so high that you make nothing on the drop. Of course you still have the short term hedge since longs were doing great during the rally.

Comments, criticisms, etc.?

#vxxgame experiment 2 Was out…

#vxxgame experiment 2

Was out on a bike ride before sunset and a thought hit me (almost hit a squirrel and a bald eagle eating road kill as well). I was doing intervals so there was some lactic acid and oxygen debt involved but during one of my recovery periods had a thought about the VXX/VIX trades. Income without capping the upside if set up correctly since these trades are generally so directional.

I will set up some trades next volatility spike but here is the idea. I can’t take full credit, I saw something similar on a webinar once.

SVXY go synthetic long, UVXY/VXX synthetic short or buy XIV stock if you want to play it from that side.

SVXY example. Buy the ATM leaps and sell the ATM put leaps. Buy a put 10 points or so OTM for disaster protection. Then instead of selling a weekly call against the long call, sell a credit spread. You will still bring in a little credit but then you are net long calls about 2:1 ratio so will not cap your upside. The short call is covered by the LEAP so effectively you have free calls with no out of pocket expense except the cost of the disaster put.

You could also reverse it on the downside. Buy a put debit spread or just add another few long puts to your short, then would have a ratio back spread and good gains to the downside.

I think it would solve the problem of a runaway stock but still bring in a credit which is something 99% of the people here like to do. You would still be able to sleep at night when 8/24/15 hits again and the VIX spikes to 100 and SVXY drops to 25. Loss capped to 10 points or wherever you set your short put.

Thoughts, suggestions? Anyone want to set up the opposite on UVXY next vol spike and we will see which one does better? I may do both for a supercharger effect. You could also use all leaps then have a set and forget trade like @ramie77 suggests.

The SVXY experiment has worked well except the short calls cap the gains, I know @fuzzballl and @jeffcp66 are having the same issues on the UVXY diagonals. I have $500 left in time decay over 23 days, once my shorts expire I will close all the positions for a great gain and set up the above if/when we ever have a volatility spike.

#longcalldiagonals, #longputdiagonals

$NUGT #ShortPuts – Sold NUGT…

$NUGT #ShortPuts – Sold NUGT OCT 27 2017 30.0 Puts @ 0.30 with the stock at 31.13.
This account last exited NUGT at 36.0 after writing covered calls for months. Not afraid to go long again but I would rather see the puts expire.

VIX Indicator has been updated

The VIX adds another candle to the uptrend. (Click “Home/REFRESH” above to update the #VIXIndicator and other right-hand-column features)

EDIT: I added the SPX for comparison (purple line)

Screen Shot 2017-10-24 at 2.02.20 PM

$WHR #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold…

$WHR #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold WHR APR 20 2018 120.0 Puts @ 1.50. Thanks Ramie

$NSC #ShortPuts #Earnings – Sold…

$NSC #ShortPuts #Earnings – Sold NSC Oct 27 2017 125.0 Puts @ 0.40 with the stock at 132.58

$SVXY #ShortPuts – Sold SVXY…

$SVXY #ShortPuts – Sold SVXY Nov 3 2017 75.0 Puts @ 0.40 with the stock at 103.69

$NSC #ShortPuts #Earnings – Sold…

$NSC #ShortPuts #Earnings – Sold NSC Oct 27 2017 124.0 Puts @ 0.35 with the stock at 132.31
Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) declares $0.61/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Forward yield 1.83%
Payable Dec. 11; for shareholders of record Nov. 3; ex-div Nov. 2.
So I would probably take the stock in to collect a quick dividend.

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Nov 8th 2580/2555 put spreads for 9.25. Sold yesterday for 9.35. Decided to bail on this as the lackluster bounce and rising VIX tell me that some index weakness could be coming.

Sold Nov 8th 2540/2565 call spreads for 19.35. #ITMroll from Oct 31st spread closed this morning.

Short Puts $BABA

$BABA STO 11/3 165/172.50 BUPS @ 1.66 Most likely will close before earnings which are 11/2 BMO

CMG earnings

#Earnings I was looking for a trade on this and then @thomberg1201‘s post popped up to inspire me.

Sold $CMG Oct 27th 290/300/350/360 #IronCondor for 2.40. Biggest UP move: 7.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.3%, Average move: 5.7%. My short strikes are -7.6% and +7.9% OTM.

#earnings CMG Sold Nov. 17…

#earnings CMG
Sold Nov. 17 295/300 for 1.05, stock at 324

Adding to WHR

Sold $WHR Dec 15 145 puts @ 1.15

Short Puts $OLLI $WHR $AMZN

#shortputs
$OLLI STO 11/17 45 puts @ 1.00 Stock at 45.25
$AMZN STO 10/27 927.50/937.50 BUPS @ 1.65
$WHR STO 4/20/2018 120 put @ 1.50 Thank you @ramie77

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 24th 2620/2645 call spreads for 1.70.

Also, closed Oct 31st 2535/2560 call spreads for 20.90. Sold for 17.95. Looking to roll as we move higher into afternoon.

$GWW #ShortPuts – Sold GWW…

$GWW #ShortPuts – Sold GWW Apr 20 2018 145.0 Put @ 2.60 with the stock at 202.20

VXX Game

#vxxgame
$SVXY STO 11/3/76 put @ .40 Thank you @vxxkelly

Earnings $CMG

I could be looking for a stomach ache, but …
$CMG STO 10/27 290/300 BUPS @ 1.60 Bridget at OMM inspired trade. Also love their burritos.

MGM Whiz style

#SyntheticStock – He added this today. I like it. He went 30/30/25 for the LEAPs. I’m using 32/32/27. Same risk and same reward for much lower debit entry.

Synthetic stock in Jan 2019 for 1.03 credit:

Sold MGM JAN 18 2019 32.0 Puts @ 4.66
Bought MGM JAN 18 2019 32.0 Calls @ 3.63

Using the 1.03 to buy the disaster puts:

Bought MGM JAN 18 2019 27.0 Puts @ 2.42

In the 2019 position for 1.39 debit. Disaster put is 5 points under the synthetic so max risk in the entire trade is 6.39. Should easily sell 4 to 5 times that much in front month weeklies if MGM goes nowhere and the trade runs the full 65 weeks.

So:

Sold MGM NOV 3 2017 31.0 Calls @ .44

Short Puts $NSC $CTRL $EXAS SPX Campaign

#shortputs
$NSC STO 10/27 130 put @ 1.20 Earnings Trade with @jeffcp66 Thank you
$CTRL STO 11/17 25 put @ .90 Trying to get some stock that was stopped out last week
$EXAS STO 10/27 49.5 put @ 1.25 Attempting to add to my stock position

#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 11/17 2475/2500 BUPS @ 1.80Thank you @jeffcp66
$SPX STO 11/6 2545/2520 BECS @ 22.10 Thank you @jeffcp66

WHR puts

I love selling puts on big downdrafts in this stock.
Sold $WHR Apr 20 2018 120 puts @ 1.50 with the stock at 163.55.

Morning all. The quest for…

Morning all. The quest for the holy tile grail was a success. Not so much that risk off SPX call spread I closed before I headed out. Win some loose some.
$SVXY #ShortPuts Bought to close my Oct 27th 65 Puts at .03 and used the freed up capital in my Roth to sell to open Nov 17th 85 Puts for 1.80. I have an order to close the 75 Puts at .05 to do a similar deal. I hate giving money to ToS if I can avoid it.

SVXY

#ShortCalls – Rolling out and up and pairing with the bull put spreads that I had previously reverse rolled some short calls into…

Rolled SVXY JAN 19 2018 120.0 Calls to JUN 15 2018 155.0 Calls @ .70 credit

Hey y’all – John Carter…

Hey y’all – John Carter put out a video on doing iron flys on TSLA, AMZN. Just wanted to get your option on them AMZN OCT 27 1000/1010/1000/990 for 9.07ish credit

TSLA Nov 3 300/310/300/290 for 9.53 ash credit.
He is using the expected move to come up with strikes.

#ironbutterfly

$OXY #ShortPuts – Bought 1…

$OXY #ShortPuts – Bought 1 OXY Nov 17 2017 50.0 Put @ 0.01. Sold in May at 1.35.

$SVXY

STO Nov 3 $76 puts @ $.40
STO Nov 10 $65 puts @ $.50

Missed the chance to trade the spike yesterday afternoon so making a couple of smallish trades this morning.

REGN

#CoveredCalls – Next week using this week’s high as a sell point. Stock looking weak so staying aggressive with the sales. #Earnings on Nov 8th…

Bought to Close REGN OCT 27 2017 450.0 Call @ .30 (sold for 3.50)
Sold REGN NOV 3 2017 437.5 Call @ 4.50

NSC Earnings

#Earnings #ShortPuts Sold to Open $NSC Oct 27th 130 puts for 1.10. Biggest UP move: 10.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -3.5%, Average move: 3.0%. This trade is -2.3% OTM.

#bups

AMZN

#LongCallDiagonals #Earnings – To give my iron flies a little encouragement, I’m rolling down the front month call on the diagonal trade to hedge a little.

Rolled AMZN OCT 27 2017 1000.0 Call to OCT 27 2017 990.0 Call @ 3.55 credit (premium received now 11.75)

$UAL #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold…

$UAL #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Sold 1 UAL Mar 16 2018 50.0 Put @ 1.73

$DUST #ShortCalls – Bought to…

$DUST #ShortCalls – Bought to close 1 DUST Dec 15 2017 50.0 Call @ 0.05. It won’t trade any lower and doesn’t expire for 2 months.
Originally sold at 6.80 so a really nice gain.

AMZN

#Earnings – An idea from John Carter last night. Playing it bullish with a nice even pin at 1000.00. He said the selloff yesterday was a perfect opportunity for this so giving it a shot. Risk 75 to make 925 but very directional.

Sold AMZN OCT 27 2017 990.0/1000.0/1010.0 Iron Flies @ 9.25

tt Research Cherry Picks

#CherryPicks http://tinyurl.com/yb6swxdl