SPX trades

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 12th 3390/3410 call spreads for .25. Not risking the small chance of a volatile close. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.

Not buying a #SPX7dteLong today… going to buy it in the morning, which seems to save me about a buck in price.

Expiring: Aug 12th 3350/3350 call spreads for 20.00 max credit. Condors bought last Thursday morning for 15.80.

ATVI

$ATVI Bounced nicely near the 50 day moving average, at the bottom of its trading range. Sold 9/18 75 puts @ 1.42 (23 delta) with the stock at 81.53.

A TRADE:

CC STO 8/14/20 22.0 PUTS @.63 Trying to acquire stock cheaper.

NTES earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 19, 2020 AC -1.35%
Feb. 26, 2020 AC -6.91%
Nov. 20, 2019 AC +2.28%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26% Biggest UP
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%

Avg (+ or -) 6.73%
Bias -1.37%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 473.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 445.25 to 500.75 (+/- 5.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 441.15 to 504.85
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 421.16 to 524.84
Based on UP max only (+10.3%): 521.53

Open to requests for other symbols.

PLUG

#BullPutSpreads – Thanks @Jeff for pointing this one out. Might be a fun one to play with…pretty low risk selling ITM spreads. I’ll manage it similar to an earnings spread when I sell those ITM. If the stock tanks one covered call sale will get that back.

Sold PLUG SEP 18 2020 12.0/10.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 1.30

TRADES:

CODX STO 8/14/20 22.5 CALLS @1.00
CODX STO 8/14/20 20.0 CALLS @1.45
KODK STO 8/14/20 11.0 CALLS @.42 An add.

LULU

Rolled $LULU 8/21/2020 285/295 #BuPS // Sep-11-2020 290/300 #BuPS @1.51
Holding 8/28 and 9/4 290/300 #BuPS also.

LRCX – Unbalanced Condor

LRCX @ $376

BTO 1 x LRCX Aug 21: $375 /$370 long PUT Vertical @ $ 2.60 debit
STO 2 x LRCX Aug 21: $360 / $355 short PUT Vertical @ $1.27 credit (x 2)

Total debit of $0.05 for the unbalanced Condor. Downside breakeven is around $358. No risk to the upside (just the $0.05 cost of the trade).

If LRCX starts imploding then throw on a long PUT diagonal (e.g. -1 Aug 21 $355 / +1 Aug 28 $355) at around $2, which drops the downside breakeven to $346.

Risk/Reward extremely enticing.

#UnbalancedCondor

LABU

Sold 9/4 40 puts @ 1.75
#ShortPuts

PLUG play

#Speculation This one is waking up after a long dormancy and Cramer was talking it up this morning.

Bought to Open $PLUG Jan 2021 20 calls for .80, when stock dipped to 10.11.

A TRADE:

KODK STO 8/14/20 11.0 CALL @.55

#fallingknife OSTK STO 18 Sep…

#fallingknife
OSTK
STO 18 Sep Bups
75/70 for 2.05

#closing LULU XOM LULU Aug….

#closing LULU XOM

LULU Aug. 5, sold Aug. 21, 365/375 call spread for 1.23, bought today for .70, thanks Ramie
XOM Aug. 4, sold Aug. 21, 41 put for .72, bought today for .13

NFLX

STO September 25, 400/600 strangle at 6.02