SPX trades

#SPX7dte Expired ITM for 17.09 credit: $SPX Aug 17th 3365/3385 call spreads. Condors bought last Monday for 16.05, so profit of 1.04. At the mercy of the market for the last few minutes.

#SPX1dte Expired worthless: Aug 17th 3290/3310-3410/3420 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.

TSLA

ON my September 18, 700/2900 strangle, I rolled the 700 put up to 1500 for a credit of 36.00

WMT earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $WMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 19, 2020 BO -2.12%
Feb. 18, 2020 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2019 BO -0.27%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +6.11%
May 16, 2019 BO +1.43%
Feb. 19, 2019 BO +2.21%
Nov. 15, 2018 BO -1.96%
Aug. 16, 2018 BO +9.33%
May 17, 2018 BO -1.90%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -10.17% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2017 BO +10.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 17, 2017 BO -1.58%

Avg (+ or -) 4.12%
Bias 1.12%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): CANNOT ACCESS
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.44 to 140.56
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (+10.9%): 120.30 to 149.70
Based on DOWN max only (-10.2%): 121.27

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

KSS puts

#Earnings Order in to Buy to Open $KSS Aug 21st 24 puts for 1.50, with stock at 23.80. Breakeven at 22.50, which is -5.5% OTM. Strongly negative history, and also Covid. It’s possible negative already baked in and we could see a pop higher, but I’ll also have until Friday for that to fade.

Not filled yet… will raise my bid if necessary before the close.

#earnings KSS Sold Sept. 18,…

#earnings KSS

Sold Sept. 18, 20/27.50 #shortstrangles for 1.73

Thanks for the data Jeff

SQ NUGT Rolls / TQQQ Puts Closed

#coveredcalls
$SQ BTC 8/21 142 calls and STO 8/28 145 calls at .75 debit. Basis now 88.40
$NUGT BTC 8/21 94 calls and STO 8/28 101 calls at 2.30 debit. Basis now 116.10

#shortputs
$TQQQ BTC 8/21 90 put at .10. Thank you @fuzzballl

VXX new diagonals

I have not yet replaced the dozen or so strike 25 short Puts I had that expired Friday, leaving a bunch of 2021 fully paid for long positions.

Tiptoeing back in with new diagonals:
Bought to open VXX Jun 18 2021 9.0 Puts / Sold VXX Aug 21 2020 24.5 Puts @ 0.12 Credit.

It would be nice if we got just a tiny market pullback this week.

KSS earnings analysis

#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 19, 2020 BO -7.65%
March 3, 2020 BO -2.62%
Nov. 19, 2019 BO -19.48% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33%
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%

Avg (+ or -) 7.20%
Bias -5.54%, strong negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 23.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): CANNOT ACCESS
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 21.53 to 24.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-19.5%): 18.68 to 27.72
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 24.90

NOTE: 5-day maximum DOWN is the same, while max UP is less, meaning 5-day performance is even more negative for KSS.

Open to requests for other symbols.

WBA

Ex-div tomorrow for 0.4675 for those wanting a dividend capture trade.
Stock is close to the low for the last week.

Dividend Yield 4.46%

#dividendcapture

#coveredcalls CNQ Bought a Sept….

#coveredcalls CNQ

Bought a Sept. 18, 21 covered call for 19.53, .32 dividend on Sept. 17, current price of 20.33

TOS still updating…

AMZN

BTC September 18, 2650/2700-3700/3750 iron condor at 4.60, sold at 9.35, Using the TT  Style of trading.

TQQQ

In my IRA, BTC August 21, 45 puts at .01, sold at .57
Also, BTC the 65 puts at .01, sold at .52

GOOGL

STO 1250/1300-1700/1750 iron condor at 6.25 for October 2 expiration.

SPX 7-dte

#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 21st 3360/3380-3390/3410 condors for 15.20, with SPX at 3382. Lowest price I have paid in this strategy. But if we are going to consolidate near the 3400 level the exits will get tricky.

ThinkorSwim slow?

Anyone else having issues with TOS being slow or nonfunctional this morning?

AAL

Sold AAL 08/21/2020 14.0 Covered Call @ 0.28.
This replaces the 13.50 Call that expired Friday

VXX

Bought to open 1 VXX Nov 20 2020 60.00 Call @ 0.98.
Adding this to my stable of longs in November.
I don’t average down old positions. I lower the strike of new positions instead.
Next target is the Nov 55 Call at the same price.
Election chaos is coming …