SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Rolled the dice on a favorable close and lost. Condors sold for .90, ITM expiration costs me 8.93.

I’m probably going to sell an aggressive call spread soon, but imma wait for now.

Rolling SPX iron condor

Well that was fun. My timing couldn’t have been better for all you folks looking to fade my moves. If you missed it, pay better attention next time 😉

I will do one roll of this then I’m probably done. I spent way too much time in rollout hell the last couple of years with these positions and I’m not keen on getting back into that game. But for now:
Rolled 8/28 3355/3380//3485/3510 iron condor out to 9/2 3375/3400//3505/3530 for .20 credit. Short puts 19 delta, short calls 36 delta. In exchange for the upside room I have donated 3 more days to the trade. Let’s see if we can’t get a little 20-30 point pull back in the SPX.

IBB – Parking Cash

#DiagonalButterfly

BTO IBB Jan 2022 : long strangle $115 call / $150 put @ $53.74
STO IBB Aug 28: $133 straddle @ $5.34

Excess premium bought $53.74 – $35 = $18.74, so hunting down that amount through straddle / strangle sales until Jan 2022. I setup the original trade on 18 August.

With IBB hovering around the $133 strike and 2 DTE, thought I’d drive the rolling process, rather than be driven – so rolled early:

BTC Aug 28: $133 straddle @ $2.30 (originally sold for $5.34)

STO Sep 04: $133 straddle for $3.94.

VXX

Sold 1 VXX 08/28/2020 26.0 Diagonal Call @ 0.21
Sold 2 VXX 08/28/2020 27.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.13

Creating Short Calendar Iron Condor Spreads to help balance out a lot of short Puts.
Sold the Calls against already long November Calls.
Hoping to keep VXX above 24 through Friday.

I would add to these if higher prices come along tomorrow.

VIX shooting higher

…as the indices reach unreal heights. I left my desk for a couple hours this morning after the open was pretty calm. As it turned out, the SPX rose steadily the whole time I was away, so when I returned my short call had been hit. Tried to stop out but was not filled, not getting deep ITM. Missed my stop point so I’m without oars at the moment.

TSLA

#BullPutSpreads – Bought to Close TSLA AUG 28 2020 1300.0/1000.0 BuPS @ .06 (sold for 2.40)

SPLK Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – In a different account playing the ‘ol reliable downside Lizard. Breakeven near recent lows with no upside risk.

Sold SPLK AUG 28 2020 190.0/205.0/207.5 Jade Lizard @ 2.55

TSLA

Another new all time high @ 2166

Sold 1 TSLA 08/28/2020 2500 Call / Bought 1 TSLA 08/28/2020 2700 Call @ 2.10 Credit.

2 days to expiration

SPY bearish Diagonal

Sold 1 SPY Sep 02 2020 333.0 Call / Bought 1 SPY Oct 16 2020 346.0 Call @ 5.19 Credit.
If there is no market pullback in the next week, I can do a roll every few days after that.

SPY is at an all time high just above 347

ANF earnings analysis

#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 28, 2020 BO -11.11%
March 4, 2020 BO +8.98%
Nov. 26, 2019 BO -2.57%
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -15.09%
May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%

Avg (+ or -) 15.35%
Bias 1.84%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 11.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 9.88 to 12.62 (+/- 12.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 9.52 to 12.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 8.27 to 14.23
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 13.94

Open to requests for other symbols.

TRADES:

OSTK BTO STOCK @114.0 A little
KODK STO 8/28/20 6.0 ITM CALLS @.70

#earningsBBY STO 11 Sep IC…

#earningsBBY
STO 11 Sep IC
100/105/120/125 for 1.00

NIO Puts

#shortputs
$NIO STO 8/28 18.50 puts at .45
$NIO STO 9/4 17 puts at .60

#earnings #jadelizard NTAP Sold Sept….

#earnings #jadelizard NTAP

Sold Sept. 18, 38/42.50/43.50 jade lizard for 1.26

Thanks for the earnings data Jeff

LULU

STO $LULU 320/330 Sep-25-2020 #bups @1.50. Underlying 381.17. Short option 15 Delta.

ADSK post earnings

#ShortPuts – Reported last night. I missed the bottom this morning but still a little premium at the expected move…

Sold ADSK SEP 18 2020 225.0 Put @ 2.62

SPLK Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out to the monthlies and selling a little lower. Stock at lifetime highs and I’m selling a put? Talk about bizarro market…

Sold SPLK SEP 18 2020 190.0 Put @ 2.80

SPLK earnings analysis

#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 21, 2020 AC +12.73%
March 4, 2020 AC -9.10% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2019 AC +10.76%
Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83%
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%

Avg (+ or -) 9.52%
Bias 4.46%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 215.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.02 to 232.98 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 194.54 to 235.46
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 176.54 to 253.46
Based on DOWN max only (-9.1%): 195.44

Open to requests for other symbols.

NTAP earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 27, 2020 AC -4.64%
Feb. 12, 2020 AC -9.27%
Nov. 13, 2019 AC +3.17%
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%

Avg (+ or -) 6.61%
Bias -2.45%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 42.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.61 to 45.39 (+/- 8.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 39.22 to 44.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 35.32 to 48.68
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 37.08

Open to requests for other symbols.