Boxed most of the day..till way after 1pm..Made a series of small box trades between the lines…
was an okay day…
Friday = 85 points the hard way..
Weekly Total = 600 or so..
Author Archives: fibwizard
Late SPX Trade
STO 2 April 28th 2175/2275 BUPS @ 4.85
also exited my lower half of a strangle..
BTC 1 april 5th 2280 short put @ 1.07, previously sold in a strangle @ 5.05
gain @ 77%
Trades Today in The YM world
Spx Chart
My SPX chart as of today….a double top, kind of..that could sell off to the 61% fib at 2300..2 candle closes below the 34ma..usually the 34ma holds support..if support breaks and fails, a good chance of a sell to the 61% at 2300..
my indicators signalled a selloff 4 days ago..as well as the skew stat I posted …
if the 38% fib is support and holds, which is quite likely, as SMI is about to bottom and roll..I’ll sell BUPS…If the 38 breaks down, I’ll hold my Long put and wait for the bottom at the 61% Fib..also the 34ma isnt signalling a down trend..yet..a hopefully good sign for a bounce..
Another day in YM-Ville
While the VXXY boys were rolling in the dough…I played around in the Futures Playground..
Made 180 YM points thruout the day..attached is my chart of the ups and downs…
My april 2200/2300 BUPS is in decent shape, My long may 2400 delta 70 put is in excellent shape..
all in all, not a bad week for me…
News
03/21/2017 (MT Newswires) — The dollar’s losses have accelerated in sympathy with a broad sell-off across Wall Street as traders adopt a risk-off bias ahead of Thursday’s House vote of the American Healthcare Act. If the bill is voted down, investors fear that the loss of President Trump’s political capital will undermine his efforts to reform business regulations and increase infrastructure spending.
Nice day so far on the Indexes
A news item
#news item
The so-called Skew has touched a record. Should stock-market investors be anxious?
A popular options-market gauge of so-called black swan, or difficult to predict, events is drawing the attention of some bears on Wall Street as it trades at record levels.
The CBOE Skew Index , or simply Skew, which measures the relative cost of purchasing out-of-the money put options on the S&P 500 index , finished at a record of 153.34 on March 17 , and maintained that level on Monday. Put options confer the right, but not necessarily an obligation, to sell an asset at a specific price and time, while calls give the owner the right to buy an underlying asset (see chart below of the S&P 500 compared with Skew levels):
Skew essentially offers a way to gauge relative demand from investors interested in purchasing insurance–or hedging their equity exposures–against a possible downturn in the broader stock market. Put another way, Skew tracks bearish options bets on the S&P compared with bullish wagers of similar duration, and by some interpretations, investors are now aggressively betting that risks are growing.
Night Trading
YM evening session
17:10 Entered long YM at 860, just after session opened, at the main PP
20:55 Exit trade at 900, at the R1 PP
gain +40 points
SPX Trade
Futures Trades
8:30am Entered a gap fade Short on The YM at 20920
8:40am Exit the trade at the 20890, on the pivot bounce…
gain of 30 points
9:40am Entered short YM at 20880, just under the 34ma
9:45 am Exited my trade as YM crossed the 865 level, just above the Mid PP..
Gain of 15 points
45 for today
355 for the week..
not too bad for a newbie….
YM Trades this morning
8:30 Open gap fade, entered Long at 790
8:40 Exit at 830 as we crossed the Mid-PP near the previous close..
Gain +40
8:45 Entered Short at the 830, as YM bounced off the 34ma..
9:00 Exit at 800, as the YM crossed the S1 PP..
gain +30
11:00 Entered Short at 800 as the YM moved south on a trend line break
11:15 Exit at 780, as YM stalls along the 38% fib just under the Mid PP…
gain +20
90 points for the morning…so far so good…
SPX Spread
Sold 2 apr 13-2017 2200/2300 BUPS for 5.40 credit
a Blah Day…
Fun Market Day
After a decent up move at open, the YM broke slowly into a down trend, lower hi’s, Lower lows, and finally broke down..filling the gap from the Trump speech day…after filling the 810 gap, it moved back to teh 61% fib at yesterdays close…
12:15 Short YM at 865..at the point of break down, at the top of the channel..
12:30 Exit trade as YM stalls into a box..
gain 30 points on the move down
YM Trade
Open Gap Fade
9:00am Bought YM Long at 20920, fading the open downside gap
9:45am Exit YM Trade at 20960, as the price hit the Mid-PP, and formed new HOD..
Gain of 40 points
2:40 $ticks exceeds -1000, Enter a long YM trade at 20900
3:00 Exit my trade as the Fade of extreme ticks works, at 20920, at a 61% Fib level
Gain of 20 points
80 points for the day( includes 2 small 10 point scalps)
SPX Strangle
STO 2 Apr 05 2280/2425 Strangle @ 9.13
YM Trade Today
9:00am Enter YM Short at 21000, as indexes move lower..fading the up open
10:00am Exit my short trade at 20950, as price retest the S1 Pivot 2nd time and makes a new low..This proves to be the LOD, as well as establishes support at the S1 Pivot..market relatively flat rest of day along Fib levels.
Gain @ 50 pts
Futures Trade today
11am Entered YM long at 21080, as the ticks gapped up, and YM broke out of sideways box
11:15 Exited YM trade at 21160, as YM made a new high to 21162 and pulled back..
Gain of 80 Points
SPX Trade Exit
Closed my Mar 17’s
15-Feb Sell 2 Mar 17 2260 puts $5.70 $1,138.00
1-mar buy 2 Mar 17 2260 puts -$1.70 -$340.00
Gain 71%
Closes out Feb Trade month with a 5% return
Nice Day on The YM
Lunch time Moves
11am Shorted YM at the 810 level as ES, Ticks and indexes converged …
11:30 Exit at 770, as ticks hit -1200,
gain 40 points
11:35 Long YM at 780, after Ticks hit -1200, and a bounce of the Mid PP..
12:00 Exit trade at the 810, for 30 points, as price comes back to the 34ma and 61% fib retrace
gain 30 points
Monday happenings
#news items
Monday February 27th
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET
Robert Kaplan Speaks 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
Friday Parting Notes
Trin opened at 1.01, closed at 1.81…look for a rally Monday
Vix opened at 12.5, coasted downhill as the mkts faded the open gaps
P/C opened at 1.13 for a high, and finished at 0.94..tends to lean bullish for monday…
YM closed the 80 point opening gap the last 30 minutes, to close at 20777, after opening at 20711..a most bullish comeback…
Have a great WE…
SPX Trade
23-Feb Sold 2 Mar 24 2165/2265 BUPS @ 4.00
Closed SPX Trade
Closed Mar 10’s
13-feb Sold 2 Mar 10 2260 short puts @ 5.70 Credit of 1140
24-Feb Bought 2 Mar 10 2260 short puts @ -1.60 Debit of -320
gain @ 68%
Friday Futures Gap Trade
Friday, YM(Dow-30), gaps down at open 80 points, pre-mkt volume normal, Gap fade trade started
8:30 enter YM long at 20720 at open, dow-30 opens 50-50..
10am exit half my trade as YM hit the 20760, at the PP Midlevel..
gain of 40 points
remaining half of my trade left to run….
12:00p Exit the other half of the trade at 20760, as YM cant seem to break the 760 level..
Gain of 40 points on that half also..
If the gap doesnt fill later, we will go into next week with a black hole..which will draw it the YM back to the
gap fill area level..I will mark my chart and be aware of it…
Cheers..
Gap Fade Futures Trade
YM Opened about 50 higher than yesterdays close at 3pm…
Executed the Gap fade setup at 8:40..
8:40 Short YM at 20790, as it Gaps and starts to fade..stop set at 30 above, Target at previous close
9:15 Target of 20755 hit, target sell order executed, trade finished
Gain of 35 points
9:55 Shorted YM at 20750, as it broke the lows of the previous close yesterday, stop at 20 above..
10:19 Target of 20730 hit, as it approached the Center PP, target sell order executed
gain of 20 points
11:30 Faded the High Tick alarm of +1000 and the 11:30 move up..
11:35 Shorted the YM at 20810, stop at 20830, target was at the R1 PP and 38% fib at 20780
12:10 Target of R1 was hit , sell order filled, trade complete
gain of 30 points
12:30 After lunch push up
12:30 buy Limit was hit at 20780, at or near the R1 PP, stop at 20750, ticks start moving up..
13:20 Target at Mid-PP at 20800 hit, sell order hit and complete
gain at 20 points
Trade day over for me..
Gain in the day session = 105 points
gain in last nights session = 45 points
SPX Close
Closed out my Mar 03’s
13-Feb Sell 2 mar 03 2270 puts $4.40 $878.00
20-Feb buy 2 mar 03 2270 puts -$1.50 -$300.00
Gain @ 65%
SPX Update
As kind of expected, SPX hit its head on the 61% extension, yesterday, and stopped..made a small pivot today, as the mkt was off a lil..Price osc and Stoch are starting to turn over a lil..if the weakness persist we could see a possible retrace to the 2300, the top of the box previously..then maybe a push to 2420, at the 100% extension…as well, looking left, we could get a sideways pause, then up again..much like the last few weeks…
For the VXX crowd
Update from late last nite
The RRT candles proved correct..and the svxy thus far slid to the 100% fib extension and stopped dead..Indicators have all turned red..possible more downside..
Updated SPX Chart
Looking at the chart, with the squeeze and momentum taking off a week ago, it was evident, selling the downside was the way to go..as the squeeze fired up with accelerated momentum and price strength, I sold a delta 65 ITM put..its up 35%, for a nice gain…
There is a rule of 6, if we are up for 6 bars, it likely continues..
SPX Roll
Profit/Roll
Feb 03 sell 2 mar 17 2190 puts $8.00 $1,600.00
Feb 15 buy 2 mar 10 2200 puts -$3.00 -$600.00
Gain @ 65%
Feb 15 Sell 2 Mar 17 2260 puts $5.70 $1,138.00
SPX Roll
Rolled Mar 10 SPX
Jan 26th Sold 2ea Mar 10th 2200 short puts @ 8.40
Feb 13th Closed 2ea Mar 10th 2200 short puts @ -2.55
gain @ 70%
Feb 13th Sold 2ea Mar 10th 2260 short puts @ 5.70
SPX Roll
Rolled Mar 3rd SPX
Jan 26th Sold 2ea Mar03 2210 short puts @ 7.00
Feb 13th Bought 2ea Mar03 2210 Short puts @ -1.75
Gain @ 74%
Feb 13th Sold 2ea Mar03 2270 short puts @ 4.40
sunday Open Trade YM
5pm Mkt opened reasonably flat…along the Vwap average line..
7:45 YM enters a squeeze, Wave moves above zero. Enter long YM at 20240, stop at 20220
8:00 YM squeeze trigger to the upside, Launch power strong above 50, ym starts to move up
8:30 YM moves above 20260, stop moved to BE
8:55 YM hits the 20280 level and stalls, wave and squeeze are declining, Trade closed, for 40 points
gain @ 40 points
Gives me a head start for the week coming..
also if the YM holds at 20260 or higher, we will open with a 30 or 40 point gap-up at 8:30 open..might be an opportunity for a open gap fade trade..
cheers, FW
SPX Close
Jan 24 buy 2 feb 24 2120 puts -$2.43 -$486.00
Jan 24 sell 2 feb 24 2220 puts $7.59 $1,518.00
Feb 9 buy 2 feb 24 2220 puts -$1.80 -$360.00
Feb 9 Sell 2 feb 24 2120 puts $0.55 $110.00
Gain @ 76%
Futures Trade
9:35 Long YM as the 9:30 stall completes, and $tick moves back above zero..trade entered at 20070, stop at 20050..
9:45 YM moves up to 20110, stop moved to 20090
10:05 exit my trade at 20110, as the marjket starts to stall and rest at the 10am hour..
Gain of 40 points, 25/point
Open Trade ES
9:30 9:30 reversal moves down and bounces at 2283…
9:35 Long ES 2283, as wave stays above zero and bars stay blue….stop at 2281
9:40 ES moves to 2288, stop moved to 2286
10:00 ES moves to Center PP, at just under 2289..stop moved to 2287
10:00 ES moves to 2290, stop moved to 2288
10:05 exit trade at 2290, as the ES stalls and wave turns red…
gain 7 points
250/point
Futures Chart
I am not a good teacher, so bear with me..The chart has the lines tool I spoke of earlier..and my pivots displayed..
The method used is to measure the opening YM candle, and draw the green/red lines for open range…
that allows the 2 gold lines, for expected open move and 9:30 reversal support to be drawn…as well as the the 3 extended target lines above , or below..
open:
opening candle opens 15-20 points..end to end
Lines are drawn
YM then moves 30-50 points (20040-20070 today )
exit the trade at a target line or pivot bounce
9:30 reversal
The futures indexes will almost always reverse at 9:30am..
if the reversal stops at the Gold Line, YM has a good chance to continue back up to a higher target
if, like today, it breaks down below the gold line for 30 mins or so, and then tries to move up..it will usually top out at the previous target, and then sell off the target line , back into the open range area..like this mornings -57 point move..
The 9:30 reversal/continue/sell off will usually go until 11:00, when dead time for lunch takes over…take your lunch break
11:00am – 12:30/1pm Dead time..
AfterNoon Session
12:30/1pm after lunch, traders come back and make a small push up/down, usally good for 20 -40 points most days..after which it slides sideways into the 2pm pro hour..I dont play the 2pm – 3pm pro hour..I am a beginner, learning to trust my system..I make my 40-60 points between the open and lunch zone..
The above is what I was taught in the Futures class I took..its one of many trade methods..I like it because it works consistantly, and its easy to learn..I am good at trading fib lines and PP levels..this method does the same..for a futures trade..
Income
Most of us here trade for income..be it selling options, or futures..Futures is by no means easy..I am getting better at it..I set easy to reach goals by which I can live by the below..
1. set your exits and entries…ahead of time
2. do not hesitate to enter or exit..never 2nd guess your discipline or stops
3. wait for the moves and lines and validate with the indicators..when in doubt, get out..
My Plan goals for the YM;
40 points daily..
5 contracts per trade
20 point stops
risk = 500.00 ( 25/point x 20 points )
40 points daily = 1000.00 weekly/4000 monthly
Today I made 70..it doesnt seem to be a terrificly difficult goal..the more I learn, hopefully the better I’ll get…
Sorry this went really long…Chart is below…
regards, Wizard
YM After Lunch Trade
#futures
12:15 Entered YM Long at 20000, as it bounced off the Target-3 line , stop at 19980
12:20 YM above the 20010, stop moved to 19990
12:35 Stop moved to BE at 20000, as wave crosses zero to the upside
1:25 Exit trade at 20010, for 10 points…
gain @ 10 points..
my day is over, trade-wise..for 70 points today…
YM 10am Trade
#futures
10:15 Short YM at 20050, as TTM_Squeeze triggered to the downside, stop at 20070
10:20 YM moves thru 20040, stop moved to 20060
10:25 YM moves thru 20030, stop moved to 20050, trade at BE
10:30 Exit trade as YM bounces off the S1 Pivot..
Gain @ 30 points
YM Open Trade
#futures
8:35 Open YM long at 20040, as squeeze fires to the upside, with Wave-a moving to the upside, and Sq-Power high
Stop set at 20020
8:40 YM moves above 20060, stop moved to BE at 20040
8:45 YM moves past 20070, stop moved to 20050, locking a 10 point gain
9:20 target stop at 20075 hit, trade exits
gain @ 35 points
ES After Lunch
#futures
12:30 Enter long ES trade at 2285, stop at 2283..as wave-a moves to positive bars..risk = 2 points
1:00 Stop moved to 2284, Risk = 1 pt
1:20 ES enters a squeeze, wave above zero, I still hold, bars still blue..
1:30 Exit trade at 2285, for no gain…Wave turns red , scalp arrows turn down
cant win them all…
New SPX Trade
sold 2 Mar 17 2090/2190 bups @ 4.50
SPX Closed Trade
Jan 25 Sold 2 Feb 03 2230 Short puts @ 4.40
Feb 03 Bought back 2 Feb 03 2230 short puts @ 1.25
gain @ 71%
Open ES Trade
Feb 03 8:45 Enter Long at 2283, as wave momentum moves to the upside..
Feb 03 9:03 Exit trade at Pivot Point, at 2288…as price consolidates and wave/squeeze bars reverse to downside..
gain of 5 points
ES Pre-Market Trade
Feb 03 7:12 Long ES at the 2279 just before the squeeze fires to the upside…squeeze momentum carries the trade
Feb 03 7:51 Exit my trade at the 2286 for a 7 point gain..wave momentum declines, squeeze over
gain = 7 points
Fuzzy-YM-currently
Squeeze setting up
wave below zero
price at 19811
Stop at 19830
Fuzzzy .. ES
Fuzzy,
you could have had another 8 points on the 10-11am slide from the 2278-2270 lines..same setup as the others..
wave @ zero
trend bars go red
exit at the bounce
wave momentum changes
Fuzzy – Chart Explanation
Fuzzy, the chart explains what I see when I trade and what I look for…
60 point move…
ES Trade
Same as earlier..
1. Price squeezes
2. Wave bars move positive
3. power bar moves above 10
4. Trend bars change to blue
5. ride the trade from 2272, and exit at 2278 for a 6 point gain, as the Wave moves below zero..and the trend bars change to red.
gain of 6 points
250 per point
After close ES/YM Trades
#futures
Feb 01 5:05pm shorted ES as the TTM_Squeeze fired off to the downside..at 2275
Feb 02 00:10 am Exited my trade at 2265 as the TTM_Wave bars approached the zero line..another 1 PP move..
gain of 10 points..
250/pt
Feb 01 5:05pm Shorted YM as the TTM_squeeze and TTM_Wave Fired in tandem to the downside at 19820
Feb 01 10:40pm Exit my trade at 19750, as the TTM_Wave bars cross the zero line, and the squeeze moves upward
gain of 70 points
25/pt
late Day Trade
Feb 01 13:28pm Short ES at 2277 just before the Squeeze fired to the downside..Wave signalled a down move
Feb 01 13:41pm exit my trade as teh ES crossed the Center pivot line and stalled at the 2272 as the squeeze bars flattened out..and the wave bars reversed..
Gain of 5 points , 250/point
Trading done for today…
Missed YM trade
I missed the 80 point drop in YM at 9:03, as I was in a trade with ES…just to show you I am not as good as I would like to be..I should have got them both as they both tracked down for a pivot-pivot move…
ES Trade
#futures
Feb 01 9:03am Shorted ES as the TTM_Squeeze triggered to the downside with good power…at 2282
Feb 01 9:14am Exited my trade at the 2277 as the Squeeze and Wave bars changed direction..
gain of 5 points, 250/pt…
Pre-Market YM trade
Opening ES trade
Charting..
RTM and snapback to the 2280, closing above the support line of last weeks open gap-up..no close below that line yet, means the upside gap is still active..2055 is a 38% fib retrace/previous box support…MA’s are gathered at 2265-2270 area..basically provided support today before the bounce back…lets see which gap closes first, last weeks or todays…
ES and YM at Open
Jan 30 8:41 Shorted YM @ 19940, as YM continued thev breakdown..
Jan 30 8:48 Exited my trade as YM bounced at the 19870, after a break and fake at the S3 pivot…
Gain of 60 points @ 25/pt
Jan 30 8:31 Shorted ES at 2280, as it fell out of the TTM_Squeeze to the downside
Jan 30 8:45 Exited my trade as the ES bounced at the S3 pivot line..at 2272..
Gain of 8 points at 250/pt
Opening Futures Trade
Jan 27 08:34 Shorted the ES(sp emini ) just before the TTM_Squeeze fired to the down side..at 2293.5..TTM_Wave verified by starting to move negative…
Jan 27 08:56 Exit my trade as ES hits the session low, at the S1 Pivot line..TTM_Wave verifies the move is over with a polarity change..and above zero move ..
Gain of 5 points @ 250/point
SPX Trades
SPX trades for the next few weeks….
Jan 26 Sold 2 Mar 03-17 2110/2210 Put Credit Spreads (BUPS ) @ 4.50
current price just under 2300
Expected Market makers move = 63 points
My safety factor = 40 points or so..
Jan 26 Sold 2 Mar 10-17 2100/2200 Put Credit spreads (BUPS ) @ 5.00
current price just under 2300
Expected Market makers move = 71 points
My safety factor = 30 points or so..
Opening Dow futures Trade
#futures
After the opening slide and subsequent bounce at the 20000 line, I went long :
Jan 26 8:44 Long 5 YM contracts as teh TTM_Wave went green on teh bounce at 20000 level..
Jan 26 9:11 Exited my trade as the YM stalled at the 20,050 level and consolidated..TTM_Wave verified the chop..
Gain of 50 points @ 25/point
Futures Trade
ES trade
On the bounce at the 61% Fib retrace, went long 5 contacts at 2288..( 10:51am), exited my trade as ES paused at the 2292 for a 4 point ES gain..
4 points x 250 per point…
SPX Close/Roll
10-jan Sell 2 Feb 13 2190 Puts @ 6.70
25-Jan Buy 2 Feb 13 2190 Puts @ -2.20
Gain @ 60%
25-Jan Sell 2 Feb 13 2230 puts @ 4.40
SPX Puts Closed
13-Jan Sell 2 Feb 3 2220 puts $5.30 $1,058.00
25-Jan Buy 2 Feb 3 2220 puts -$1.50 -$300.00
Gain @ 70%
A bistro Party
Since all this work by Jeff has been totally successful..and we are members of the best site for home traders,
I think Jeff should host a Bistro Party this year…I’d definetely attend..and help however I can…
SPX at the Bell
#spxcampaign
just before the 3:15 close, STO 2 SPX Feb 24 2200/2100 BUPS @ 4.60
Entered my trade as the ES crossed below the R2 Pivot line..after a mild pullback before close..
Futures Trades
2 trades for 30 points each today..best I can do on a slow day…
60 points @ 25.00/point
Entered at or just before the TTM_Squeeze signal fired …verified with the TTM_wave signal..
Exited my trades as the squeeze and wave signals turned down…also 90% of the 2nd trade was between the R1 and R2 pivots…as it approached the R2 Line, it was time to exit..
Closed SPX Trade
Jan 6 Sell 2 Jan 27 2220 puts $4.90 $980.00
Jan 24 Buy 2 Jan 27 2220 puts -$0.75 -$150.00
Gain 83%
Opening Futures Trade
Jan 23 08:40am Short 5 YM contracts as the YM crosses down over at 19760..TTM_Wave-A moves from above zero to negative red bars..Stop placed at 19780.
Jan 23 09:21 Exit my trade at the 19710 as YM bounces at the 19710, as TTM_Wave-A turns Green and moves to zero…
Gain @ 50 points @ 25.00/point…
10am Futures Trade
Jan 19 09:29 Shorted YM at the center Pivot, at 19730
Jan 19 09:29 Exited the trade at the S1 Pivot , at 19670
gain of 60 points
10:20 Reversed my trade at the 19680, as the YM bounced at the S1 pivot,
10:22 Exit my trade at the 19720, just under the Center pivot..at 19720
additional gain of 40 points
finished for today…
Futures Trade Today
Jan17 09:02 Bought 5 YM dow-mini’s at 19740
Jan17 09:10 Sold/Exit 5 YM Dow-mini’s at 19790
Jan17 09:23 Sold/short 5 YM dow-mini’s at 19800
Jan17 10:21 Buy/Exit 5 YM Dow-mini’s at 19750
Total of 100 points
10 pts = 50.00
100 pts = 500.00
5 contracts = 2500.00
Futures trades are done for today
SPX Spread sold
Jan 13 Sold 2 Feb 13 2090/2190 BUPS @ 4.50
Executed Sale with ES at The afternoon low bounce..( ES 2267 )
SPX Roll
Jan 04 Sold 2 Feb 03 2180 short puts @ 6.59
Jan 13 Buy 2 Feb 03 2180 short puts @ -2.75
Gain @ 60%
Jan 13 Sell 2 Feb 03 2220 short puts @ 5.30
Executed my trades as ES topped at the R1 pivot ..before the downside move..
SPX Exit
Closed Jan 31 SPX Short Puts
Jan 4 Sell 2 Jan 31 2180 puts $5.50 $1,098.00
Jan 13 Buy 2 Jan 31 2180 puts -$1.60 -$320.00
Gain 70%
Options Bistro 