#Jobs — Big gains obliterate expectations. Earnings also soar; December revised up bigly.
Gain of +353,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 185K
Unemployment unchanged at 3.7%
U6 unemployment 7.2%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.6%; 4.5% increase over the year
December jobs revised up by +228K to +333K
November jobs revised up by +9K to 182K
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 1st 4785/4805-4910/4930 condors for 1.05, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 22.1%
#SPX1dte Not trade until after the Fed announcement
I did put on paper trades for the IB and 5-pt wide IC strategies, this time with both 30-point and 40-point wings.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 30th 4860/4880-4955/4975 condors for 1.35, deltas -.08 +.08 IV 17.6%
Aggressive again on deltas… JOLT jobs report at 10am ET
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 29th 4835/4855-4925/4945 condors for 1.20, deltas -.09 +.07 IV 16.4%
A bit aggressive on deltas for what have been quiet Mondays lately.
Please note the current week’s earnings calendar always available in the menu bar at top of this page.
Busy week with JOLT on Tuesday, FOMC decision on Wednesday, and Jobs report on Friday.
Please note the current week’s calendar always available in the menu bar at top of this page.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 26th 4825/4845-4935/4955 condors for 1.25, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 20.3%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 25th 4815/4835-4920/4940 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.15%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 24th 4825/4845-4925/4945 condors for .85, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 15.6%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 23rd 4800/4820-4890/4910 condors for 1.30, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 16.5%
This is fairly tight and aggressive, so needs a quiet day to slip through.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 22nd 4790/4810-4895/4915 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 17.7%
#Market All time high just breached. The previous high of 4818.62 was hit on 1/4/22, so just over two years since we’ve been here.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 19th 4750/4730 put spreads for .50, delta -.08, IV 20.6%
I will be able to see my long Jan 19th 4845/4865 call spreads for at least some profit today. Looking for another spike up to sell first half. I will also look to sell a higher call spread at that point.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 18th 4690/4710-4790/4810 condors for 1.40, deltas -.08 +.08, IV 18.6%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 17th 4680/4700-4790/4810 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 20%
#SPX1dte STOPPED Bought to close $SPX Jan 16th 4730/4710 put spreads for 1.70. Condors sold Friday for 1.05.
May be only second or third time I have ever gotten up two hours early because I rolled over in bed to check futures on my phone. Last January being down 27 points on SPX was not a worry, but with this year’s tighter spreads it is the stopping point. Stop was touched soon after midnight PT.
I’ll be back at normal waking hours to look for a new condor sale.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 16th 4710/4730-4840/4860 condors for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 7.3%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 12th 4710/4730-4820/4840 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 20.6%
#SPX1dte Right after the data release, sold to open $SPX Jan 11th 4720/4700 put spreads for .80, delta -.07, IV 24.9%.
Inflation hotter than expected, which means my long call spreads may be doomed.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 10th 4700/4720-4790/4810 condors for 1.20, deltas -.08 +.07, IV 16.9%
#SPX1dte. Whipsaw week so far. Stopped out before the open on put side for 2.70.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 9th 4700/4720-4805/4825 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.04, IV 11%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4645/4660-4740/4755 condors for .80, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 17.7%
This is 15-wide wings, not my usual 20. For some reason I got “invalid order” when I tried it with the 4640 & 4760 long options, so perhaps one of them isn’t offered. Due to the lower risk with 150wide, I increased my position size by about a third.
CPI Report Thursday
Bond Auctions Wednesday & Thursday
#SPX1dte Waited for 30 minutes after Jobs report…
Sold to Open $SPX Jan 5th 4620/4640-4735/4755 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 22.1%
#Jobs — Higher than expected.
Gain of +216,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 175K
Unemployment unchanged at 3.7%
U6 unemployment 7.1%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation at 62.5%, down by 0.3
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.1% increase over the year
October jobs revised down by -45K to +105K
November jobs revised down by -26K to 173K
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 5th (next day) 4625/4645-4780/4800 condors for 1.00, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 15.5%
Today’s condor nicely centered and should expire. This new one is for tomorrow… there is the Jobs report in the morning, but I’m getting a nice width here so I’m comfortable.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 4th 4635/4655-4750/4770 condors for .95, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 12.4%
Condor from this morning expired. My error in setting up a close order led me to keep watch, and since we didn’t went lower than the morning dip (until right before the close), I rode it out to victory!
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 3rd 4670/4690-4775/4795 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 18.9%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 2nd 4680/4700-4795/4815 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 20.7%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 29th 4720/4740-4825/4845 condors for .90, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.7%
Third day out of four this week that I have doubled down, taking advantage of the typically quiet holiday week. Watching today closely in case there is any larger moves due to last-day-of-year loading or unloading.
#SPX1dte Doubling down with a second condor: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 28th 4735/4755-4820/4840 condors for .90, deltas -.09 +.05, IV 14.9%
This is 20 points higher on put side and 5 points higher on call side.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 28th 4715/4735-4815/4835 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 10.6%
Expiring: Dec 27th 4845/4825 put spreads, sold yesterday for .80
#SPX1dte Adding to condor sold on Friday: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 26th 4705/4725-4790/4810 condors for 1.15, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 15.7%. Obviously, I’m assuming a pretty quiet day.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 26th 4690/4710-4800/4820 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 6.4%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 4690/4710-4800/4820 condors for 1.25, deltas -.08 +.07, IV 21.4%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 21st 4665/4685-4775/4795 condors for 1.35, deltas -.11 +.07, IV 21%
Aggressive on downside as bounce is likely.
…what news hit?
#SPX1de Adding another tight position on this quiet week: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 20th 4730/4750-4790/4810 condors for .75. Deltas -.08 +.08
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 19th 4720/4700 put spreads for .60, delta -.10, IV 14.2%
This is a bonus spread; my condor from yesterday still on.
#SPX1dte Filled 23 seconds after closing bell: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 19th 4685/4705-4785/4805 condors for .95. I wasn’t at my screen, but I estimate deltas were -.09 +.04
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 18th 4670/4690-4760/4780 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 15.3%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 4675/4655 put spreads for .75, delta -.08, IV 21.05%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 14th 4650/4670-4765/4785 condors for .95, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 21%
#SPX1dte Unable to sell any puts as market just ran. Profit is availabe on the #RiskReversal I sold yesterday… gonna try to pick a top.
$SPX just exceeded the March 2022 high of 4637.30. Next would be the all-time high from Jan 2022 of 4818.62.
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 13th (next day) 4520/4500 put spreads
Bought to Open Dec 13th 4700/4720 call spreads
Net DEBIT .50
I will hold this until after Fed press conference tomorrow, in case ultimate market reaction is bullish
Prices across a broad range of goods and services edged higher in November as energy prices declined, providing hope that inflation could be on a lower trajectory.
The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.
While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month ago.
Excluding volatile and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates and little changed from October.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 4550/4570-4635/4655 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 16.2%
Inflation reports and Fed decision the week!
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4515/4535-4630/4660 condors for 1.00, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 21.65%
Muted reaction to Jobs number, wish I could have sold before the report but been burned too many times this year.
#Jobs — A bit more than expected. Wages increased strongly.
Gain of +199,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 185K
Unemployment down by 0.2 to 3.7%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.0%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation at 62.8%, up by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.0% increase over the year
September jobs revised down by -35K to +262K
October jobs unchanged at 150K
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 4500/4520-4590/4610 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 16.7%
Weekly jobless claims came in exactly as expected so market has no meaningful reaction. Tomorrow’s MONTHLY job number may have more impact as we have both CPI and Fed Decision coming next week.
Today’s candlestick is bearish engulfing. Similar to last Wednesday, but that time was not engulfing on the lower side like today’s.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 6th 4555/4535 put spreads for 1.15, delta -.17
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 5th 4610/4630 call spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.45. 4520/4500 put spreads still short. Econ data coming at 9:45 & 10 ET.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 4th 4525/4545-4620/4640 condors for 1.15, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 18%
JOBS report is Friday
#SPX1dte Sokd to Open $SPX 4515/4535-4610/4630 condors for .65, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 20.2%
Waited until Powell finished remarks and for Q&A to begin. Went with less aggressive deltas, so I have less chance of stepping in sh*t on a Friday.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 4525/4505 put spreads for .55, delta -.09, IV 18.45%. Sold 4 minutes after jobless claims and other data released.
#SPX1dte Sold partial of $SPX Nov 29th 4590/4610 call spreads for 3.00. Bought yesterday for .30.
Overnight rally came through. Now bouncing around after GDP numbers came in a bit above estimates and some yapping from Fed members.
#SPX1dte Condor sold yesterday is doing fine so will allow to expire unless challenged
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 29th (next day) 4485/4505-4585/4605 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 10.4%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 27th 4510/4530-4585/4605 condors for 1.10, deltas -.09 +.06, IV 14.5%
#SPX1dte Not enough premium on the usual 6-delta spreads so I may not be placing a trade today. I’ll take another look after the open.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 4495/4515-4585/4605 condors for 1.00, deltas -.09 +.06, IV 17.1%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 21st 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors for .95, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 10.95%
Options Bistro 