#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 28th 3745 calls for .30. Stop was breached. Condors sold for 1.00 on Thursday.
#SPX7dte Expiring for max 20.00 credit: Dec 28th 3700/3720 call spreads. Condors bought for 15.90 last Tuesday.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 28th 3595/3615-3745/3765 iron condors for 1.00, SPX at 3696, IV 9.2%, deltas -.06,+.06
#SPX7dte. Forced to take a break here with too many losses eating in to what had been a 45% annualized strategy. I did not buy one for next Thursday.
Today’s flirting with expiring in dead zone. Looks like I will get some on call side.
SPX 1 dte
#SPX1dte Skipping a trade for tomorrow’s half day, since premium is low and things in Washington are uncertain.
Expiring: $SPX Dec 23rd 3585/3605-3730/3750 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 30th 3685/3705-3715/3735 iron condors for 15.45, with SPX at 3710.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Dec 23rd 3710/3690 put spreads for 9.00. Will sell call side on a spike. Likely another loss due to this murderous consolidation around 3700. Condors bought for 16.10 last Thursday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 3585/3605-3730/3750 iron condors for 1.05, with SPX at 3684, IV 15.1%, delats: -.06,+.06
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX 3670/3690/3700/3720 iron condors for 15.90, with SPX at 3694.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 24th 3665/3685-3695/3715 iron condors for 16.25, with SPX at 3691.
I have the same strikes expiring t0day and I totally botched the exit. I didn’t think we would bounce this strongly, so I sold off the call side for 1.00, and then the put side dropped. My only hope is a significant pullback into the close.
I also failed to sell the long put side I bought for cheap for the #SPX1dte… think they got up to about 2.00, but was unfortunately not able to be at my computer at the crucial time… and again, thought we would go lower.
No big worries… this strategy still working strong in long term, despite hiccups in last couple of weeks.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The Upside warning was canceled this morning, with the $VIX above 26.96. Could be a pause before it resumes, or we could be headed down. A Downside Warning would take effect with a VIX close above 26.96.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Actually going LONG this time, due to possibility of Congress passing stimulus. Was considering RiskReversal, but if they pass and Trump refuses to sign, could be negative reaction. So long on both sides
Bought to Open $SPX Dec 21st 3565/3585-3760/3775 iron condors for .70 (broken-wing because I’m 15-wide on call side.). I don’t think this has much chance, but a cheap play.
Expiring: Dec 18th 3630/3650-3780/3800 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
#SPX7dte Sold to Close $SPX Dec 18th 3675/3695 call spreads for 19.50. Not a fun afternoon watching it drop, but I held in there and got lucky with the bounce. Put side sold earlier for 1.00, so 20.50 total. Condors bought for 16.55 on Monday.
PLUG
Bought the Jan2021 – 20 calls for .80 sometime in the summer for $PLUG. Still holding as it doesn’t want to stop!
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Dec 18th 3665/3645 put spreads for 1.00. Looking for a close here or higher to take full 20.00 on call side.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 23rd 3690/3710-3720/3740 iron condors for 16.10, with SPX at 3718.
SPXpire
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: $SPX Dec 16th 3670/3690 call spreads. Condors bought for 16.65 last Thursday.
#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: Dec 16th 3580/3600-3745/3765 condors, sold yesterday for .90
Fed’s gonna keep it up
Fed commits to keep buying bonds until the economy gets back to full employment
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/fed-decision-december-2020-fed-commits-to-keep-buying-bonds-until-the-economy-gets-back-to-full-employment.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1608145264
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 21st 3665/3685-3695/3715 iron condors for 16.40, with SPX at 3690.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 18th 3645/3665-3675/3695 iron condors for 16.55, with SPX at 3669.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire worthless: Dec 14th 3540-/3560-3720/3740 condors, sold Friday for 1.05.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 14th 3540/3560-3720/3740 iron condors for 1.05, SPX at 3568, IV 13.4%, deltas: -.06, +.06
Expected to expire: Dec 11th 3585/3605-3720/3740 condors, sold yesterday for .90.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong. Sold to close $SPX Dec 14th 3710/3730 call spreads for 1.25. Put side sold for 12.60 on Wednesday. Condors bought for 15.40 on Tuesday, so loss is 1.65.
Now I’m rooting to stay below 3665 today for max credit on today’s expiry.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 3585/3605-3720/3740 iron condors for .90, SPX at 3671, IV 13.8%, deltas -.06,+.06
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong – Bought to Open $SPX Dec 16th 3640/3660-3670/3690 iron condors for 16.65, with SPX at 3663.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Following my own suggestion from earlier and legging out on the swings, sold to close $SPX Dec 14th 3700/3680 put spreads for 12.60. Condors bought yesterday for 15.40. If this is the start of a big drop, this loss is fairly small. But I think it is more likely to see some bounce by Monday, which means I can then sell the call side.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Morning started out great, now a sticky situation. Sold to close $SPX Dec 9th 3665/3645 put spreads for 1.40. Looking for recovery from these lows to close out the 3675/3695 call side.
SPX7dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 14th 3680/3700-3710/3730 iron condors for 15.40, with SPX at 3702.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong SOld to close $SPX Dec 7th 3665/3685 cal spreads for 19.85. Bouncing around too much, so I closed to avoid a bigger loss if it drops again. Condors bought for 15.65 last Tuesday.
Expiring: Dec 7th 3590/3610-3740/3760 condors, sold Friday for 1.00.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 11th 3665/3685-3695/3715 iron condors for 15.70, with SPX at 3690.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 3590/3610-3740/3760 iron condors for 1.00, SPX at 3687, IV 10.5%, deltas: -.06,+.06.
November Jobs Report
#Jobs — pace of job growth slows; gains lower than expected
Gain of +245,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 440K gain
Unemployment at 6.7%, down by 0.2%, as expected
U6 unemployment at 12.0%, down by 0.1%
Labor force participation 61.5%, down by 0.2
Avg hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% expected
Oct jobs revised down by -28K to +610K
Sept jobs revised up by +39K to +711K
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Dec 4th 3620/3640 call spreads for 17.75. Iron condors bought Monday for 16.45. Will look to sell put spread if we go lower. Also happy to be safely in profit before #Jobs report in the morning.
Bought to Open $SPX Dec 9th 3645/3665-3675/3695 iron condors for 15.85, with SPX at 3669.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Dec 2nd 3630/3650 call spreads for 19.10, to avoid any possible dump into the close. Iron Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.00; sold today for a total of 20.35.
#SPX1dte Expected to expire: 3575/3595-3710/3730 condors, sold yesterday for .90.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 7th 3635/3655-3665/3685 iron condors for 15.65, with SPX at 3659. Forgot to buy this one yesterday.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX Dec 2nd 3620/3600 put spreads for 1.25. Banking on 3630/3650 call side to make the bulk of profit. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.00.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open (right after closing bell) $SPX Dec 2nd 3575/3595-3710/3730 iron condors for .90, SPX close at 3661, IV 13.6%, deltas: -.06, +.06
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 4th 3590/3610-3620/3640 iron condors for 16.45, with SPX at 3615.
Volatility has dropped, but still above 20. Today is the first expiration where this strategy has “missed” in several weeks. We may be in consolidation near 3600 so it could become tricky for awhile here.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Nov 30th 3625/3605 put spreads for 6.10. Condors bought last Tuesday for 15.65. trading in the dead zone this morning but I am banking that we won’t go much lower and will rebound into afternoon, so i can get some scratch for the call side. Likely a loss, but fortunately this was the cheapest i have ever paid for a condor in this strategy.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Nov 30th 3525/3545-3685-3705 iron condors for 1.05, SPX at 3630, IV 11.4%, deltas -.06,+.06
Expiring: Nov 27th 3570/3590-3680/3700 condors, sold Wednesday for 1.20.
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max 20.00 credit: Nov 27th 3570/3590 call spreads. Condors bought for 16.00 on Monday.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 27th 3570/3590-3680/3700 iron condors for 1.20, SPX at 3633, IV 9.6%, deltas -.10, +.05. Leaning bullish for two reasons: I think we’ll go a bit higher into the close, and the half-day after thanksgiving is typically quiet.
Expiring: Nov 25th 3545/3565-3685/3705 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05
#SPX7dteLong Expecting a profitable expiration of Nov 25th 3615/3635, bought last Wednesday for 9.50. If I don’t get the max 20.00, it will still be a good trade.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Dec 2nd 3600/3620-3630/3650 iron condors for 16.00, with SPX at 3627.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3545/3565-3685/3705 iron condors for 1.05, SPX 3632, IV 14.2%, deltas -.06,+.07
SPX-7dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close partial of the $SPX Nov 25th 3615/3635 call spreads for 7.00… I’ll say these are the ones I added for 3.75 on Thursday. But I was too early as Upside Warning finally showing its strength with the vertical slope today… spreads are now at 11.45 and rising. Must decide whether to close today or wait for possible max credit tomorrow.
Also, bought to open $SPX Nov 30th 3605/3625-3635/3655 for 15.65, with SPX at 3630.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 27th 3540/3560-3570/3590 iron condors for 16.00, with SPX at 3568.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3470/3490-3630/3650 iron condors for 1.20, SPX at 2566, IV 12.09%, deltas -.07,+.06
Expiring: Nov 20th 3485/3505-3640/3660 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Nov 20th 3620/3600 put spreads. Condors bought Monday for 16.35.
#VIXIndicator The Upside Warning is not producing much yet, but the VIX action is so anemic that I don’t think we should be doubting it yet.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Nov 23rd 3615/3595 put spreads for 15.00. Leaving call side to close later today or Monday. Condors bought for 16.35 on Tuesday.
There’s a good chance this will end up in trouble if market rises on Monday, so I’m getting out now for what will likely be break-even, if i can close call side on a spike higher this afternoon.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 20th 3485/3505-3640/3660 iron condors for 1.15, SPX at 3578, IV 17.34%, deltas -.07,+.05.
Digging In
#SPX7dteLong Added more to my $SPX Nov 25th 3615/3635 call spreads for 3.75. Bought the first batch much too early yesterday for 9.50. Sticking with the Upside Warning, although it faces quite an adversary in this Covid surge.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Nov 18th 3545/3565 call spreads for 19.75. Condors bought for 17.75 on Tuesday the 10th. The drop made me nervous enough to sacrifice $25 to avoid an ITM expiration.
#SPX1dte Expiring: 3520/3540-3660/3680 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3615/3635 call spreads for 9.50, with SPX at 3610. Taking only call side for expiry one week from today, based on Upside Warning and usual lazy bullishness around a holiday week.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 19, 2020 AC +0.02%
May 21, 2020 AC +2.86%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC +7.02%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25% Biggest UP
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Avg (+ or -) 5.14%
Bias 0.01%, no bias on earnings.
With stock at 537.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 501.81 to 572.19 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 509.41 to 564.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 436.31 to 637.69
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 575.93
Open to requests for other symbols.
Upside Warning in effect
Look out above… The $VIX low closes have fired an Upside Warning on the #VIXIndicator. Expect continued higher levels on $SPX in the coming days or weeks.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 18th 3520/3540-3660/3680 iron condors for 1.30, SPX 3609, IV 15.75%, deltas -.07,+.06
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 23rd 3595/3615-3625/3645 iron condors for 16.35, with SPX at 3620.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 20th 3600/3620-3630/3650 iron condors for 16.35, with SPX at 3627.
Expected for expiry today: Nov 16th 3580/3600 call spreads for max credit of 20.00, plus 1.00 I got for put side this morning. Condors bought for 16.68 last Wednesday.
#SPX1dte: Expected to expire worthless: Nov 16th 3475/3495-3655/3675 condors, sold Friday for 1.15.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Nov 16th 3570/3550 put spreads for 1.00. Leaving the 3580/3600 call spread to expire for full 20.00 credit. This takes away my protection from am intraday drop, but market looking stable and Moderna news should keep us positive today. Condors bought for 16.68 last Wednesday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 16th 3475/3495-3655/3675 iron condors for 1.15, SPX close at 3585, IV 13.7%, deltas -.06,+.06. Sold right AFTER the closing bell.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/16/20
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX Nov 13th 3600/3580 put spreads for 18.30. Condors bought Monday for 17.25.
This leaves the call side available and eliminates upside risk. I will look for a reversal to take profits, but if I dont get one the trade is already profitable.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong When $SPX was at 3573, bought to open Nov 16th 3550/3570-3580/3600 iron condors for 16.679 (avg price). This is only 5-dte, because yesterday I mistakenly sold the Nov 18th trade early.
Expected to expire today:
$SPX Nov 11th 3520/3540 call spreads at max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Thursday for 17.70.
#SPX1dte Expected to expired worthless: 3425/3445-3620/3640 condors, sold yesterday for 1.50.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 3425/3445-3620/3640 iron condors for 1.50, SPX at 3544, IV 22.3%, deltas: -.06,+.07
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 18th 3515/3535-3545/3565 iron condors for 17.75, with SPX at 3540. I picked the wrong date, was supposed to be Nov 16th. So this one is 8-dte. I may add a Nov 16th later today or tomorrow.
SPX 7dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Nov 13th 3580/3600-3610/3630 iron condors for 17.25, with SPX at 3603.
Expiring with max profit of 20.00: Nov 9th 3430/3450 call spreads. Condors bought last Wednesday for 18.20.
Downside Warning canceled
….at the open with SPX hitting new all-time highs. #VIXIndicator
SPX 1-dte
Wow. Perfect day for a #RiskReversal. Definitely should have known…. but Friday being flat made me think the upward move would be limited. Nothing to do but take the loss, with slim hope for some intraday reversal.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 9th 3370/3390-3580/3600 iron condors for 1.40, SPX 3500, IV 17.4%, deltas -.06,+.06
Expiring: Nov 6th 3400/3420-3600/3620 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25
#SPX7dteLong Expiring with max credit of 20.00: Nov 6th 3375/3395 call spreads. Condors bought Tuesday for 18.35.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/9/20
#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Thursday morning.
October Jobs Report
#Jobs — higher than expected
“October’s growth brings the total payroll gains since May to around 12 million, though that still leaves unfilled about 10 million positions lost in March and April.” -CNBC
Gain of +638,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 530K gain
Unemployment at 6.9%, down by 1.0%, vs. expected 7.7%
U6 unemployment at 12.1%, down by 0.7%
Labor force participation 61.7%, up by 0.3
Sept jobs revised up by +11K to +672K
August jobs revised up by +4K to +1.493M
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 6th 3400/3420-3600/3620 iron condors for 1.25, SPX at 3518, IV 23.28%, deltas -.07,+.05.
Slightly bullish from a delta perspective, I’m throwing caution to the wind with employment announcement and ongoing election counts.
SPX 7dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 11th 3490/3510-3520/3540 iron condors for 17.70, with SPX at 3515.
SPXpire
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20:00: $SPX Nov 4th 3335/3355 call spreads. Condors bought for 18.45 last Thursday.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong In pre-market, bought to open $SPX Nov 9th 3400/3420-3430/3450 iron condors for 18.20, with /ES at 3405, which roughly is equivalent to SPX 3414.
SPX 7-dte (-ish)
#SPX7dteLong This is only 3-dte, the shortest period for which I have bought one of these, but volatility has been strong and premium too high, so I’m going with a shorter time frame since market is pretty certain to move this week.
Bought to Open $SPX Nov 6th 3345/3365-3375/3395 iron condors for 18.35, with SPX at 3370.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Nov 2nd 3045/3065-3360/3380 condors, sold Friday for 1.10.
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Nov 2nd 3395/3375 put spreads. Condors bought for 17.50 last Tuesday.
I have an order in to buy a Nov 6th condor for 18.35. Volatility and premium are high so I won’t get filled unless things calm down into the close.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 3045/3065-3360/3380 iron condors for 1.10, SPX 3254, IV 26.9%, deltas -.06,+.05. Volatility is finally giving me a proper distance on the put side.
#SPX7dteLong Expiring at max credit of 20.00: Oct 30th 3390/3370 put spreads. Condors bought for 17.65 on Monday.
Econ Calendar for week of 11/2/20
#Jobs report is Friday at 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Wow, three expirations in a row, Mon-Wed-Fri, stopped out! Pretty sure that’s the first time that has happened. Monday I held my breath and came out scot free… Wed took a 5.00 loss, today managed only a 1.30 loss. At least the #SPX7dteLong strategy is thriving in this volatility.
Bought to close $SPX Oct 30th 3215/3195 put spreads for 2.60. Sold for 1.30 yesterday.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Nov 4th 3300/3320-3335/3355 iron condors for 18.45. This is 15-wide, versus my usual 10-wide. I did it to get better premium, but it only got me about .15.
Options Bistro 