#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 3180/3200-3440/3460 condors for 1.15, IV 31.32%, SPX 3343, deltas -.05,+.06.
Today’s condor: closed put side for .10, remainder expires.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 8th 3260 puts for .10. Condors sold for 1.25 on Friday.
I will be selling a new one for tomorrow’s expiration.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 11, 2020 AC -3.81%
March 26, 2020 AC -5.95%
Dec. 11, 2019 AC -3.73%
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
Avg (+ or -) 8.59%
Bias 4.12%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 360.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 320.79 to 399.21 (+/- 10.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 329.07 to 390.93
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.3%): 301.28 to 418.72
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 311.90
NOTE: Max 5-day moves are -11.1% and +18.1%, so slightly more bullish than 1-day.
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 14th 3340/3360-3370/3390 condors for 18.25, with SPX at 3367.
My Podcast
I’m no longer going to use Options Bistro to post my podcast, “The Pick,” but that won’t stop me from shameless self promotion. I’ve added a section for my podcast at the bottom of the right hand column. It will display the three latest posts, and clicking on any of them will connect to the website where you can link to the episodes, videos, and other information about the show.
This podcast s NOT about trading, but rather music and entertainment. I hope you listen and enjoy!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 8th 3240/3260-3545/3565 condors for 1.25, IV 22.38%, SPX 3431, deltas -.07,+.06. Bit nervous with the three day weekend, but strikes are decently OTM.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Sept 4th 3500/3480 put spreads for 19.25. Condors bought on Monday for 15.90. There looks to be a small chance of a rally to 3480, so not risking it. Now I’m rooting for it so I can make some money on my call side.
Also, super proud for shorting the market near the low today. But I still actually think that will be a winner next week.
Econ Calendar for week of 9/7/20
Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPXtra
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 11th 3200/3220 call spreads for 17.25, when SPX was at 3370. Betting on more downside. Risking 2.75.
August Jobs Report
#Jobs — increase meets expectation, while UE rate falls more than expected
Gain of +1,371,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 1.32M gain
Unemployment at 8.4%, down by 1.8%, vs. expected 9.8%
U6 unemployment at 14.3%, down by 2.3%
Labor force participation 61.7%, up by 0.3
Average hourly earnings up 0.4%, up by 0.2
July jobs revised down by -29K to +1.734M
June jobs revised down by -10K to +4.781M
Downside Warning in effect!
#VIXIndicator A double warning today as $VIX closed up over 25% from yesterday’s close and is also up over 50% from the August 11th VIX low. Expect lower markets in the coming days or weeks.
No trade
CRWD & FIVE earnings
#Earnings Unless it rallies tomorrow, looks like $CRWD will be a bust, but it was sold ITM so I knew the risk…
BTC $FIVE Sept 4th 112 puts for .05. Will let the call side wait for tomorrow.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 9th 3460/3480-3490/3510 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 3480.
Also, yesterday: Sept 2nd 3490/3510 call spreads expired ITM for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Thursday for 16.45.
Upside Warning canceled!
VIX has spiked over 50% higher than its recent low.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 4, 2020 AC +2.65%
March 12, 2020 AC +7.05%
Dec. 12, 2019 AC -3.77%
Sept. 12, 2019 AC -3.41%
June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
Avg (+ or -) 4.17%
Bias 0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 365.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 340.68 to 389.32 (+/- 6.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 349.80 to 380.20
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 334.96 to 395.04
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 344.71
Open to requests for other symbols.
CRWD earnings
#Earnings. Aggressive put spread: Sold to Open $CRWD Sept 4th 150/145 put spreads for 3.20.
FIVE earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $FIVE Sept 4th 107/112-135/140 condors for 1.661 (avg price). Bullish lean based on past performance, and market’s direction.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sept 2nd 3560/3580 call spreads for .95. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10. Stop hit at the open.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 8th 3495/3515-3525-3545 condors for 16.10, with SPX at 3519.
ZM earnings analysis
#Earnings $ZM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
June 2, 2020 AC +7.58%
March 4, 2020 AC +7.02%
Dec. 5, 2019 AC -9.94%
Sept. 6, 2019 BO -7.85%
June 6, 2019 AC +18.40%
Avg (+ or -) 10.16%
Bias 3.04%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 305.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 267.52 to 342.48 (+/- 12.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 5 quarters: 274.02 to 335.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.4%): 248.88 to 361.12
Based on DOWN max only (-9.9%): 274.68
NOTE: 5-day results show reversals into the negative for the last two quarters!
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 4th 3480/3500-3510/3530 condors for 15.90, with SPX at 3506.
SPX trades and expirations
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 31st 3425/3445-3555/3575 condors for .95, IV 10.16%, SPX 3507, deltas -.07, +.06.
Expiring: Aug 28th 3400/3420-3550/3570 condors , sold yesterday for .90.
#Supercharger expiring: $SPX Aug 28th 3400/3425 call spreads for max credit of 20.00, bought yesterday for 18.80.
#Earnings Expired at full loss: $ANF 10.5 puts, bought Wednesday for .85.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 31st 3445/3465 call spreads for 18.75. Condors bought for 15.30 on Tuesday. Will look to sell the put side for a buck or less or keep it as a hedge. But it seems hedges are no longer necessary. We are never going down again, ever.
Econ Calendar for week of 8/31/2020
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3400/3420-3550/3570 condors for .90, IV 16.37%, SPX 3497, deltas -.06,+.06.
My put side are the same strikes as my #Supercharger bought earlier. Of course, call Superchargers have the exact same profile and risk as Put credit spreads. So I’m doubled up on the down side risk.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 3460/3480-3490/3510 condors for 16.45, with SPX at 3483. The price on these went up about a buck after the VIX spike. It was in the mid-15’s this morning.
SPXtra
#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 28th 3400/3420 call spreads for 18.80, with SPX at 3482. This is a result of mistakenly entering the wrong strikes on a spread… but then I saw that I could make over a buck in one day, pretty much a no-brainer to buy it.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Rolled the dice on a favorable close and lost. Condors sold for .90, ITM expiration costs me 8.93.
I’m probably going to sell an aggressive call spread soon, but imma wait for now.
VIX shooting higher
…as the indices reach unreal heights. I left my desk for a couple hours this morning after the open was pretty calm. As it turned out, the SPX rose steadily the whole time I was away, so when I returned my short call had been hit. Tried to stop out but was not filled, not getting deep ITM. Missed my stop point so I’m without oars at the moment.
ANF earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 28, 2020 BO -11.11%
March 4, 2020 BO +8.98%
Nov. 26, 2019 BO -2.57%
Aug. 29, 2019 BO -15.09%
May 29, 2019 BO -26.46% Biggest DOWN
March 6, 2019 BO +20.37%
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
Avg (+ or -) 15.35%
Bias 1.84%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 11.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 9.88 to 12.62 (+/- 12.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 9.52 to 12.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.5%): 8.27 to 14.23
Based on UP max only (+23.9%): 13.94
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPLK earnings analysis
#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2020 AC +12.73%
March 4, 2020 AC -9.10% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2019 AC +10.76%
Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83%
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
Avg (+ or -) 9.52%
Bias 4.46%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 215.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.02 to 232.98 (+/- 8.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 194.54 to 235.46
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 176.54 to 253.46
Based on DOWN max only (-9.1%): 195.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
NTAP earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 27, 2020 AC -4.64%
Feb. 12, 2020 AC -9.27%
Nov. 13, 2019 AC +3.17%
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%
Avg (+ or -) 6.61%
Bias -2.45%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 42.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 38.61 to 45.39 (+/- 8.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 39.22 to 44.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 35.32 to 48.68
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 37.08
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 31st 3415/3435-3445/3465 condors for 15.30, with SPX at 3439.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 3370/3390-3470/3490 condors for .90, IV 10.9%, SPX 3438, deltas -.07,+.07
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 28, 2020 AC -3.48% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 25, 2020 AC -1.32%
Dec. 3, 2019 AC -3.18%
Aug. 22, 2019 AC +2.24%
June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
Avg (+ or -) 2.90%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 191.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.50 to 226.50 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 206.34 to 218.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 190.68 to 234.32
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 205.11
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dte Sold to close on GTC order in premarket: $SPX Aug 26th 3370/3390 call spreads for 19.00. Condors bought for 16.00 last Thursday. Will look to get some pennies for the put side, too.
SPXpire
#SPX7dteLong Expiring ITM: long $SPX Aug 24th 3395/3415 call spreads for max credit of 20.00. Bought for 15.05 last Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring worthless: short Aug 24th 3320/3340-3440/3460 condors, sold Friday for .90.
SPX 7-dte (5-dte, actually)
#SPX7dte Bought to open $SPX Aug 28th 3395/3415-3425/3445 condors for 15.25, with SPX at 3421.
PANW earnings analysis
#Earnings $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2020 AC +3.67%
Feb. 24, 2020 AC -17.01% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 25, 2019 AC -11.95%
Sept. 4, 2019 AC +5.76%
May 29, 2019 AC -5.11%
Feb. 26, 2019 AC +8.20%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.24%
Bias 0.19%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 191.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 246.70 to 285.30 (+/- 7.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 249.61 to 282.61
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.0%): 220.75 to 311.25
Based on UP max only (+10.5%): 294.01
Open to requests for other symbols.
Episode 13 – The Hack is Back
The Hack is Back; our favorite millennial (Kenichi Hackman) returns with new music picks; Jeff tries to Pick that Flick; and the Go-Go’s rock a new doc and new song. Plus, we preview The Pick 100. More details, links, and playlists at https://thepickcast.com
SPX 1-dte
#Spx1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 24th 3320/3340-3440/3460 condors for .90, IV 10.25%, SPX 3398, delats: -.09, +.05.
Expiring: Aug 21st 3315/3335-3425/3445 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
SPX 7-dte closed
#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX Aug 21st 3390/3410 call spreads for 8.25. Put side sold for 4.45 yesterday. Bought for 15.20 on Monday, closed for 12.70 total. Need to break out of this consolidation to get these back into profit mode.
Econ Calendar for week of 8/24/20
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
FL closed
#Earnings Sold to close $FL Aug 21st 27 #LongStraddle for .75. Bought yesterday for 2.03. The only time profit was available was the open but unfortunately I was not paying close enough attention.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st (PM) 3315/3335-3425/3445 condors for 1.00, IV 12.74%, SPX 3390, deltas -.07, +.07.
FL earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $FL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 22, 2020 BO -8.49%
Feb. 28, 2020 BO +8.01%
Nov. 22, 2019 BO -2.91%
Aug. 23, 2019 BO -18.91%
May 24, 2019 BO -15.95%
March 1, 2019 BO +5.96%
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +14.90%
Aug. 24, 2018 BO -9.17%
May 25, 2018 BO +20.15%
March 2, 2018 BO -12.72%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +28.16% Biggest UP
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -27.92% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 14.44%
Bias -1.57%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 27.15 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 25.04 to 29.26 (+/- 7.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 23.23 to 31.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (28.2%): 19.50 to 34.80
Based on DOWN max only (-27.9%): 19.57
Open to requests for other symbols.
DE earnings analysis
#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 22, 2020 BO -1.47%
Feb. 21, 2020 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
Nov. 27, 2019 BO -4.29%
Aug. 16, 2019 BO +3.84%
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.01%
Bias 0.53%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 191.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 183.41 to 198.59 (+/- 4.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 183.34 to 198.66
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-7.7%): 176.39 to 205.61
Based on UP max only (+7.0%): 204.35
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA closed
#Earnings BTC $NVDA 455/460-525/530 iron condors for .20. Sold yesterday for 1.70.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Oen $SPX Aug 26th 3340/3360-3370/3390 condors for 16.00, with SPX at 3363.
SPX dead zone
#SPX7dte First time I’ve ended in the dead zone of one of these long condors. Got a dollar for the put side this morning but zero for the call side. My mistake was forgetting the Fed minutes were today, which meant I should have closed with a small profit before 2pm ET. Loss of 14.80.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 19th 3370/3350 put spreads for 1.00. Banking on the call side for my expiration profit. Condors bought last Thursday for 15.80.
NVDA IC
#Earnings Sold to Open $NVDA Aug 21st 455/460-525/530 iron condors for 1.70, with stock at 487.30.
I’m ignoring the -18% outlier and going just outside the remaining max moves.
BABA earnings analysis
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 22, 2020 BO -5.87%
Feb. 13, 2020 BO -1.76%
Nov. 1, 2019 BO -0.11%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +3.02%
May 15, 2019 BO +1.57%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +6.33% Biggest UP
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
Avg (+ or -) 3.09%
Bias -0.22%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 258.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 244.69 to 271.31 (+/- 5.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 250.03 to 265.97
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.3%): 241.67 to 274.33
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 242.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
NVDA earnings analysis
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2020 AC +2.86%
Feb. 13, 2020 AC +7.02%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25% Biggest UP
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
Avg (+ or -) 5.58%
Bias -0.43%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 488.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 454.74 to 521.26 (+/- 6.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 460.77 to 515.23
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-18.8%): 396.50 to 579.50
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 523.38
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 19th 3315/3335-3425/3445 condors for .90, IV 12.12%, SPX 3390, deltas: -.06,+.07
SPX 7 dte
#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 24th 3365/3385-3395/3415 condors for 15.05, with SPX at 3391. These are getting riskier with lowering VIX and consolidation, but they are also getting cheaper.
WMT & KSS closed
#Earnings Sold to close $WMT 21Aug/28Aug 135 #DoubeCalendars for 1.612. Bought yesterday for .942.
Sold to close $KSS Aug 21`st 124 puts for 3.50. Bought yesterday for 1.70.
Excellent open for both trades.
SPX trades
WMT earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $WMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 19, 2020 BO -2.12%
Feb. 18, 2020 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2019 BO -0.27%
Aug. 15, 2019 BO +6.11%
May 16, 2019 BO +1.43%
Feb. 19, 2019 BO +2.21%
Nov. 15, 2018 BO -1.96%
Aug. 16, 2018 BO +9.33%
May 17, 2018 BO -1.90%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -10.17% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2017 BO +10.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 17, 2017 BO -1.58%
Avg (+ or -) 4.12%
Bias 1.12%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): CANNOT ACCESS
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.44 to 140.56
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (+10.9%): 120.30 to 149.70
Based on DOWN max only (-10.2%): 121.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
KSS puts
#Earnings Order in to Buy to Open $KSS Aug 21st 24 puts for 1.50, with stock at 23.80. Breakeven at 22.50, which is -5.5% OTM. Strongly negative history, and also Covid. It’s possible negative already baked in and we could see a pop higher, but I’ll also have until Friday for that to fade.
Not filled yet… will raise my bid if necessary before the close.
KSS earnings analysis
#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 19, 2020 BO -7.65%
March 3, 2020 BO -2.62%
Nov. 19, 2019 BO -19.48% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33%
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%
Avg (+ or -) 7.20%
Bias -5.54%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 23.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): CANNOT ACCESS
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 21.53 to 24.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-19.5%): 18.68 to 27.72
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 24.90
NOTE: 5-day maximum DOWN is the same, while max UP is less, meaning 5-day performance is even more negative for KSS.
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 21st 3360/3380-3390/3410 condors for 15.20, with SPX at 3382. Lowest price I have paid in this strategy. But if we are going to consolidate near the 3400 level the exits will get tricky.
ThinkorSwim slow?
Anyone else having issues with TOS being slow or nonfunctional this morning?
Earnings expirations
#Earnings
$BIDU and $AMAT iron condors sold yesterday both expired worthless.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 17th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors for 1.00, IV 9.35%, SPX close: 3372, deltas: -.07,+.07. Exact same strikes and premium as today’s expiration. Filled 11 minutes after the bell.
Expiring: Aug 14th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00
#SPX7dte Waiting until Monday morning to buy the Aug 21st spread
Econ Calendar for week of 8/17/20
SPX 1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 3290/3310-3410/3430 condors for 1.00, IV 14.1%, SPX 3373, deltas, -.06, +.07
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX Aug 14th 3335/3315 put spreads for 1.35. Planning to close the call side today as well, but looking for a higher close.
Condors bought last Friday for 16.30. If we get a down open tomorrow this one will be flirting with the danger zone, so getting out today.
AMAT IC
#Earnings Same story here, looking for an average or less move, low risk. This one leans bullish because I set it when the stock was closer to 66.00. Only partial fill so far:
Sold to Open $AMAT Aug 14th 62/63-69/70 iron condors for .42
BIDU IC
#Earnings. Sold to Open $BIDU Aug 14th 114/116-134/136 iron condors for .60. Looking for a move at the average or less.
AMAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 14, 2020 AC -4.39%
Feb. 12, 2020 AC +3.05%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC +8.95% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2019 AC -1.12%
May 16, 2019 AC +2.49%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC +1.08%
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -7.71%
May 17, 2018 AC -8.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +3.89%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC -2.33%
Aug. 17, 2017 AC +2.73%
Avg (+ or -) 4.16%
Bias -0.46%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 62.49 to 69.51 (+/- 5.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 63.25 to 68.75
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 60.09 to 71.91
Based on DOWN max only (-8.2%): 60.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
BIDU earnings analysis
#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 18, 2020 AC +2.00%
Feb. 27, 2020 AC +0.05%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC +13.51% Biggest UP
Aug. 19, 2019 AC +4.31%
May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45%
Avg (+ or -) 6.51%
Bias 0.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.84 to 134.16 (+/- 7.3%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 116.86 to 133.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 104.36 to 145.64
Based on UP max only (+13.5%): 141.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte (or maybe 6-dte)
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 19th 3350/3370-3380/3400 condors for 15.80, with SPX at 3378.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Aug 12th 3390/3410 call spreads for .25. Not risking the small chance of a volatile close. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.
Not buying a #SPX7dteLong today… going to buy it in the morning, which seems to save me about a buck in price.
Expiring: Aug 12th 3350/3350 call spreads for 20.00 max credit. Condors bought last Thursday morning for 15.80.
NTES earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 19, 2020 AC -1.35%
Feb. 26, 2020 AC -6.91%
Nov. 20, 2019 AC +2.28%
Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26% Biggest UP
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.73%
Bias -1.37%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 473.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 445.25 to 500.75 (+/- 5.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 441.15 to 504.85
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 421.16 to 524.84
Based on UP max only (+10.3%): 521.53
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 