#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 30th 3105 calls for .50. Talk about blind side… exited this AFTER its run up to 3111. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15
Sold to open $SPX July 1st 3005/3025-3170/3190 condors for 1.20. IV 20.7%, SPX 3105, deltas -.06, +.06.
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 17, 2020 AC +4.97% Biggest UP
Dec. 17, 2019 AC -10.02%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -12.91% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
Avg (+ or -) 5.22%
Bias -2.77%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.33 to 145.67 (+/- 7.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 128.90 to 143.10
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 118.44 to 153.56
Based on UP max only (+5.0%): 142.76
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 6th 3015/3035-3045/3065 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3043
Expiring: June 29th 3100/3080 put spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 30th 2935/2955-3105/3125 condors for 1.15, IV 22.1%, SPX 3042, deltas: -.06, +.06
Expiring: June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors, sold Friday for 1.20
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 25, 2020 AC +5.38%
Dec. 18, 2019 AC +2.80%
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
Avg (+ or -) 6.62%
Bias 0.79%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.14 to 51.86 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.29 to 51.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.03 to 54.97
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 43.12
NOTE: 5-day MAX moves are -12.96% and +18.08%
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors for 1.20, IV 21.4%, SPX 3013, deltas: -.05, +.05.
Expiring: June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 2nd 2985/3005-3015/3035 condor for 18.35, with SPX at 3010.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors for 1.30, IV 25%, SPX 3078, deltas -.06, +.06.
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 24, 2020 AC +9.23%
Dec. 19, 2019 AC -1.17%
Sept. 24, 2019 AC +4.16%
June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
Avg (+ or -) 4.71%
Bias 2.50%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 94.59 to 105.41 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 95.29 to 104.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 88.88 to 111.12
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 93.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX7dteLong Sold $SPX June 26th 3110/3090 put spreads for 13.70. Using the dip to sell put side, looking for a bounce tomorrow and Friday to sell the call side. Condors bought for 18.15 on Friday.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 24th 3055/3035 put spreads for 2.00. Condors sold for 1.40 yesterday. Expected-move stop was hit at 3084.
#SPX7dtelong Sold to close $SPX June 24th 3110/3090 put spreads for 6.90. Betting on a recovery by the close so I can sell the call 3120/3140 call spread at least partially ITM. Condors bought for 18.40 last Wednesday.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 3035/3055-3205/3225 condors for 1.40, IV 22.2%, SPX 3139, deltas -.06, +.06.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 29th 3080/3100-3110/3130 Condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3108.
Expiring: June 22nd 3060/3080 call spreads for maximum 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.35.
#SPX1dte Expiring: June 22nd 2960/2980-3195/3215 condors, sold Friday for 1.30
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 22nd 2960/2980-3195/3215 condors for 1.30
Expired: June 19th 2985/3005-3185/3205 condors, sold Thursday for 1.15
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 22nd put side for .20. Call side previously closed for 18.00. Condors bought for 18.40, so .20 loss.
Bought to Open $SPX June 26th 3090/3110-3120/3140 condors for 18.15.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
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The Bull Market Is Over. It’s Time To Sell The Rips, Not Buy The Dips
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4354018-bull-market-is-over-time-to-sell-rips-not-buy-dips?utm_source=push&utm_medium=onesignal&utm_campaign=20-06-18-article-2
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 19th 2985/3005-3185/3205 condors for 1.15, IV 26%, SPX 3106, deltas -.06, +.06
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 19th 3030/3050 call spreads for 18.00. Condors bought last Friday for 18.40. I’m waiting to sell put spread on any move down. I wanted to exit to avoid gap down risk tomorrow morning.
Also, added the remaining call spreads that I wasn’t filled on yesterday for June 24th 3090/3110-3120/3140 for 1.05 less than yesterday.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 24th 3090/3110-3120/3140 condors for 18.55. I tried legging in but it didn’t help the pretty high premium on this, due volatility the last hour. Only partially filled on the call side so I will try to add the last contracts tomorrow.
#SPX1dte Expired: June 17th 2975/2995-3225/3245 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45.
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX June 17th 2975/2995-3225/3245 condors for 1.45, IV 32.9%, SPX 3114, deltas -.06, +.05
#SPX7dteLong Legged out of the $SPX June 17th 3180/3200-3210/3230 condor on the swings this morning.
BTO condors for 17.35 last Wednesday.
STC call spreads at 7:01 PDT for 2.60
STC put spreads at 7:57 PDT for 17.50
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX June 22nd 3030/3050-3060/3080- condors for 18.30, with SPX at 3054.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 19th 3000/3020-3030/3050 condors for 18.40, with SPX at 3017.
#FOMC Jerome Powell opens his yapper again on Wednesday
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#SPX7dteLong Missed my chance for small profit yesterday and instead sold to close $SPX June 12th 3200/3220 call spreads this morning for 1.20. Bought for 9.30 last Friday. As I commented then, throwing in the towel on the relentless bull run probably would mark the top.
I am skipping the #SPX1dte for tomorrow. Premium is not high enough for the risk.
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 26, 2020 AC -5.95%
Dec. 11, 2019 AC -3.73%
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
Avg (+ or -) 9.24%
Bias 5.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 311.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 288.00 to 334.00 (+/- 7.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 282.27 to 339.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.3%): 260.28 to 361.72
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 269.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 12, 2020 AC +17.71% Biggest UP
Dec. 12, 2019 AC +3.91%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -1.74%
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21%
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Buggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias 1.36%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 400.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 382.20 to 417.80 (+/- 4.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 381.47 to 418.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 329.16 to 470.84
Based on DOWN max only (-7.3%): 370.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 17th 3180/3200-3210/3230 condors for 17.35, with SPX at 3207.
Expiring: June 10th 3100/3120-3130/3150 condors, max profit of 20.00 on call side. Bought for 17.10 last Wednesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring: June 10th 3100/3120-3285/3305 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 10th 3100/3120-3285/3305 condors for 1.10, IV: 22.25%, SPX 3209, deltas -.06, +.05.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 15th 3195/3215-3225/3245 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 3219.
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#SPX7dteLong. Bought to Open $SPX June 12th 3200/3220 call spreads for 9.25, with SPX at 3192. Only going with call side this time. Which probably means I just called the market top!
#SPX1dte Playing for more upside on Monday with #RiskReversal. Placed as one trade:
Sold to Open $SPX June 8th 3130/3110 put spreads for .81
Bought to Open $SPX June 8th 3260/3280 call spreads for .51.
Net credit .30
#FOMC Announcement and Press Conference Wednesday afternoon
Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#Jobs — Here is full data from today’s report. March and April both revised down, but not enough to overtake the huge gain in May.
Gain of +2,510,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 8.3M loss
Unemployment at 13.3%, down by 1.4%, vs. expected 19.5%
U6 unemployment at 21.2%, down by 1.6%
Avg Hourly Earnings down by 0.965%
Labor force participation 60.8%, up by 0.6
April revised down from -20.5M to -20.7M
March revised down from -870K to -1.4M
#SPX7dteLong GTC order filled in pre-market: Sold to close $SPX June 8th 3060/3080 call spreads for 19.20. Will try to get a few cents for put side today. Condors bought for 17.50 on Monday.
#SPX1dte STOPPED: BTC $SPX June 5th 3160/3180 call spreads for 6.75. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Even with expected job losses, I didn’t expect market to drop today. But certainly did not expect this explosion. I will not be selling call spreads as often in this environment.
#Jobs — Actually GAINED rather than expected loss.
Gain of +2,510,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 8.3M loss
Unemployment at 13.3%, down by 1.4%, vs. expected 19.5%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 5th 3010/3030-3160/3180 condors for 1.05, IV 18.25%, SPX 3104, deltas -.05, +.06
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 5th 3040/3020 put spreads for .80. Looking to close the call side before today’s close. Want to avoid the possible volatility after tomorrow morning’s #Jobs report.
Bought the condors for 17.35 last Friday.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 10th 3100/3120-3130/3150 condors for 17.10, with SPX at 3126.
#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY July 17th 90 calls for .47. I’d prefer to go further out in time but there are no August options yet and September’s are still pretty expensive. I’m looking to add some Sept soon.
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX June 3rd 3120/3140 call spreads for 2.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.
#VXXGame Loading up some longs for next volatility spike. In March, some of these I bought for .30 were sold for over 50.00. Be surprised if that happens again, but at least they can hedge any shorts I sell. Also trying some $UVXY but wasn’t filled yet.
Bought to open $VXX August 85 calls for .50.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 3rd 2970/2990-3120/3140 condors for 1.10, IV: 18.86%, SPX 3063, deltas: -.06, +.06
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 8th 3030/3050-3060/3080 condors for 17.50, w/SPX at 3058.
Expiring: June 1st 3010/3030 call spreads for 20.00. Condors bought for 16.65 last Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring: June 1st 2910/2930-3110/3130 condors, sold Friday for 1.10.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 1st 2910/2930-3110/3130 condors for 1.10. IV: 17.3%, SPX 3040, deltas: -.05, +.05.
Expiring: May 29th 2920/2940-3090/3110 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 5th 3030/3040-3050/3070 condors for 17.35, with SPX at 3043.
I realized today that I mistakenly SOLD my June 3rd 2990/3010-3020/3040 7dteLong condor instead of buying it (sold for 17.25 on Wednesday). So today I BTC the call spread for 11.00, and am now looking to close the put spread for 4.40 before the close.
Regarding today’s expiration, the sale of the 2940/2920 put side of my 1-dte condors yesterday effectively closed my long put spread of the same strikes I sold last Friday. So at the open today, I sold the May 29th 2960/2940 put spread for .85. That should expire with full profit.
#JOBS report for May is Friday morning
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 29th 2920/2940-3090/3110 condors for 1.10. IV 22%, SPX 3026, deltas -.06, +.06.
Selling that actually closed the put side of my long condor. I want to sell it again to officially take the profit on my long and leave me short as intended.
#SPX7dte In pre-market, GTC order filled: Sold to close $SPX May 29th 2950/2970 call spreads for 19.00.
Condors bought for 17.35 on Friday. Will look to sell the put side for around 1.00.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 3rd 2990/3010-3020/3040 condors for 17.25, with SPX at 3019.
I did not close the put side of today’s condor. It went as high as 7.00 but I decided to hold it to see if I could get more. I had made 1.60 on the trade so it was a conscious decision.
#SPX1dte expiring: May 27th 2905/2925-30503070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Options trades need to be placed today to capture any earnings move. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 12, 2020 AC -9.27%
Nov. 13, 2019 AC +3.17%
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%
May 24, 2017 AC +3.53%
Avg (+ or -) 6.52%
Bias -1.77%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 45.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 42.28 to 48.52 (+/- 6.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 42.44 to 48.36
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 38.18 to 52.62
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 40.08
Open to requests for other symbols.
#SPX7dteLong In pre-market, GTC order filled: Bought to close $SPX May 27th 2980/3000 call spreads for 18.60. Condors sold last Wednesday for 17.00. Will sell put side early in the day.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 27th 2905/2925-3050/3070 condors for 1.00, IV: 17.97%, SPX 2992, deltas: -.06, +.04
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX June 1st 2980/3000-3010/3030 condors for 16.65, with SPX at 2995.
Call spread today now being threatened so watching closely and trying to exit for 19.90 or so.
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 26th 3025/3045 cll spreads for 3.75. Condors sold Friday for 1.10.
#SPX7dteLong May 26th 2970/2990 call spreads set to expire for 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 17.15. Have to keep a watch for too deep a pullback, however.
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#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 26th 2840/2860-3025/3045 condors for 1.10. IV: 14.5%, SPX 2953, deltas: -.06, +.04
Expiring: May 22nd 2855/2875-3010/3030 condors, sold for 1.35 yesterday.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX May 29th 2920/2940-2950/2970 condors for 17.35, with SPX at 2945.
#Earnings $AZO reports Tuesday morning before the bell. Options trades need to be placed today to capture any earnings move. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 3, 2020 BO -2.11%
Dec. 10, 2019 BO +6.92% Biggest UP
Sept. 24, 2019 BO -4.41%
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74%
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.88%
Bias -1.76%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1025.76 to 1174.24 (+/- 6.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1035.27 to 1164.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 969.76 to 1230.24
Based on UP max only (+6.9%): 1176.12
NOTE: 5-day historical maximums are +5.7 and -9.9%. So LESS than the one day moves on both sides, meaning the big one day moves were somewhat retraced 5 days after earnings.
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings Bought to close $EXPE May 22nd 79 calls for .10. 79/81 call spreads sold Wednesday for .90.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 22nd 2855/2875-3010/3030 condors for 1.35. IV: 21.0%, SPX 2951, deltas -.06, +.07
#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 13, 2020 AC +7.02%
Nov. 14, 2019 AC -2.66%
Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25%
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.83%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 356.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 330.23 to 381.77 (+/- 7.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 331.70 to 380.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 289.25 to 422.75
Based on UP max only (+17.8%): 419.44
Open to requests for other symbols.
Sold to Open $EXPE May 22nd 79/81 call spreads for .90. Risking 1.10.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX May 27th 2950/2970-2980/3000 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 2972.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 20th 2820/2840-2995/3015 condors for 1.00. IV: 22.1%, SPX 2930, deltas -.04, +.06.
#SPX7dteLong About 15 minutes ago, on the way up, Sold to Close $SPX May 22nd 2860/2880 call spreads for 18.00. Then, on the huge spike down, sold 2850/2830 put spread for 1.75. Could have gotten more but how was I to know there’d be a party goin’ on? Condors bought for 18.10 on Friday, sold for 19.75 today.
#Earnings Sold to close $KSS May 22nd 19 puts for 1.45. Bought yesterday for 1.40. Didn’t get the big drop I was betting on so happy to pretend it never happened.
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX May 26th 2940/2960-2970/2990 condors for 17.15, with SPX at 2964
#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 3, 2020 BO -2.62%
Nov. 19, 2019 BO -19.48% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33%
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%
May 11, 2017 BO -7.83%
Avg (+ or -) 7.21%
Bias -5.56%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 19.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.45 to 21.55 (+/- 13.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 17.63 to 20.37
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.5%): 15.30 to 22.70
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 20.39
NOTE: 5-day historical maximums are +2.5 and -19.5%. So positive move is LESS and negative move is the same.
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 