Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX June 10th 3145/3125 put spreads for .50. I have no choice now but to rely on the call side for profit, so dumping the put side. Need a close above 3175 for max profit.
PEP earnings analysis
#Earnings $PEP reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters, to indicate how PEP may move into next Friday’s expiration.
Tue 04/28/2020 BO -3.21%
Thu 02/13/2020 BO +0.62%
Thu 10/03/2019 BO +3.29%
Tue 07/09/2019 BO +0.54%
Wed 04/17/2019 BO +3.82%
Fri 02/15/2019 BO +2.97%
Tue 10/02/2018 BO -3.81% Biggest DOWN
Tue 07/10/2018 BO +4.57% Biggest UP
Thu 04/26/2018 BO -0.21%
Tue 02/13/2018 BO -0.78%
Wed 10/04/2017 BO +1.16%
Tue 07/11/2017 BO +0.57%
Avg (+ or -) 2.13%
Bias 0.79%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 32.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday 7/17 per TOS): 126.73 to 137.27 (+/- 4.0%)
Based on AVERAGE five-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.19 to 134.81
Based on MAXIMUM five-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.6%): 125.97 to 138.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 126.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 10th 3055/3075-3215/3235 condors for 1.35, IV 20%, SPX 3152, ∆ -.07, +.06
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 15th 3140/3160-3170/3190 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 3167.
Wasn’t filled on trying to sell my put side on the lows…. I called the pullback but thought it would go a bit deeper.
#SPX1dte Expiring: July 8th 3045/3065-3205/3225 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 8th 3130/3150 call spreads for 16.85. Condors bought last Wednesday for 17.10. I’m taking a small loss now on the possibility of a roll over and going negative. If we do that in the next hour or two I should be able to get some decent premium for selling the 3120/3100 put side.
WBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 2, 2020 BO -6.29%
Jan. 8, 2020 BO -5.83%
Oct. 28, 2019 BO +0.68%
June 27, 2019 BO +4.08% Biggest UP
April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%
Avg (+ or -) 4.91%
Bias -2.92% significant negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 42.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 39.70 to 45.30 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 40.41 to 44.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 37.06 to 47.94
Based on UP max only (+4.1%): 44.23
Open to requests for other symbols.
BBBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 15, 2020 AC +18.01% Biggest UP
Jan. 8, 2020 AC -19.21%
Oct. 2, 2019 AC +2.69%
July 10, 2019 AC -3.03%
April 10, 2019 AC -8.75%
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55%
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
Avg (+ or -) 12.79%
Bias -6.58%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 10.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 8.26 to 11.74 (+/- 17.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 8.72 to 11.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%): 7.90 to 12.10
Based on UP max only (+18.0%): 11.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 3045/3065-3205/3225 condors for 1.10, IV 19%, SPX 3047, deltas -.04, +.06
SPXpirations
#SPX7dteLong $SPX July 6th 3045/3065 call spread expired with full credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05. I wasn’t able to place one for next Monday; will do it tomorrow.
#SPX1dte July 6th 3060/3040 put credit and 3215/3235 call debit #RiskReversal expired with no additional profit… keeping the .30 credit that I placed it for on Friday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX July 10th 3125/3145-3155/3175 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 3148.
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal – going for a bullish trade given the low $VIX
Sold $SPX June 6th 3060/3040 put spreads for .80
Bought $SPX June 6th 3215/3235 call spreads for .50
Placed as one trade for .30 credit. IV 14%, SPX 3141, put short delta -.09, call long delta +.04
Expiring: June 2nd 3190/3210 call spreads, sold this morning for 1.20.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 2nd 3190/3210 call spreads for 1.20, with SPX at 3160. Same day trade meant to expire worthless in a few hours.
June Jobs Report
#Jobs — an increase beats expectations again.
Gain of +4,800,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 2.9M gain
Unemployment at 11.1%, down by 2.2%, vs. expected 12.4%
U6 unemployment at 18.0%, down by 3.2%
Labor force participation 61.5%, up by 0.7%
Average hourly earnings down 1.2% from May, up 5% from last June.
May jobs revised upward by +190K
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 8th 3100/3120-3130/3150 condors for 17.10, with SPX at 3124.
Expiring: July 1st 3070/3090 call spreads for 20.00. Sold put side this morning for .80.
July 2nd call side sold this morning for 18.50. Not filled on attempts to sell put side; will see if high IV around the jobs report in the morning can get me some premium.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dte Sold to close $SPX July 1st 3060/3040 put spreads for .80. Looking for 3070/3090 call side to expire at 20.00. Condors bought for 18.00 last Wednesday.
Sold to close $SPX July 2nd 3015/3035 call spreads for 18.50. Looking to get a dollar or more for put side. Condors bought for 18.30 last Friday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 30th 3105 calls for .50. Talk about blind side… exited this AFTER its run up to 3111. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15
Sold to open $SPX July 1st 3005/3025-3170/3190 condors for 1.20. IV 20.7%, SPX 3105, deltas -.06, +.06.
FDX earnings analysis
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 17, 2020 AC +4.97% Biggest UP
Dec. 17, 2019 AC -10.02%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -12.91% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
Avg (+ or -) 5.22%
Bias -2.77%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.33 to 145.67 (+/- 7.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 128.90 to 143.10
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 118.44 to 153.56
Based on UP max only (+5.0%): 142.76
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 6th 3015/3035-3045/3065 condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3043
Expiring: June 29th 3100/3080 put spreads for max credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 30th 2935/2955-3105/3125 condors for 1.15, IV 22.1%, SPX 3042, deltas: -.06, +.06
Expiring: June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors, sold Friday for 1.20
MU earnings analysis
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 25, 2020 AC +5.38%
Dec. 18, 2019 AC +2.80%
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
Avg (+ or -) 6.62%
Bias 0.79%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.14 to 51.86 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.29 to 51.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.03 to 54.97
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 43.12
NOTE: 5-day MAX moves are -12.96% and +18.08%
Open to requests for other symbols.
Econ Calendar for week of 6/29/20
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 29th 2870/2890-3100/3120 condors for 1.20, IV 21.4%, SPX 3013, deltas: -.05, +.05.
Expiring: June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors, sold yesterday for 1.30.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 2nd 2985/3005-3015/3035 condor for 18.35, with SPX at 3010.
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 26th 2965/2985-3150/3170 condors for 1.30, IV 25%, SPX 3078, deltas -.06, +.06.
NKE earnings analysis
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 24, 2020 AC +9.23%
Dec. 19, 2019 AC -1.17%
Sept. 24, 2019 AC +4.16%
June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
Avg (+ or -) 4.71%
Bias 2.50%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 94.59 to 105.41 (+/- 5.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 95.29 to 104.71
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 88.88 to 111.12
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 93.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold $SPX June 26th 3110/3090 put spreads for 13.70. Using the dip to sell put side, looking for a bounce tomorrow and Friday to sell the call side. Condors bought for 18.15 on Friday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX June 24th 3055/3035 put spreads for 2.00. Condors sold for 1.40 yesterday. Expected-move stop was hit at 3084.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dtelong Sold to close $SPX June 24th 3110/3090 put spreads for 6.90. Betting on a recovery by the close so I can sell the call 3120/3140 call spread at least partially ITM. Condors bought for 18.40 last Wednesday.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 3035/3055-3205/3225 condors for 1.40, IV 22.2%, SPX 3139, deltas -.06, +.06.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 29th 3080/3100-3110/3130 Condors for 18.05, with SPX at 3108.
Expiring: June 22nd 3060/3080 call spreads for maximum 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.35.
#SPX1dte Expiring: June 22nd 2960/2980-3195/3215 condors, sold Friday for 1.30
SPX trades from Friday
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 22nd 2960/2980-3195/3215 condors for 1.30
Expired: June 19th 2985/3005-3185/3205 condors, sold Thursday for 1.15
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 22nd put side for .20. Call side previously closed for 18.00. Condors bought for 18.40, so .20 loss.
Bought to Open $SPX June 26th 3090/3110-3120/3140 condors for 18.15.
Econ Calendar for week of 6/22/20
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
Episode 9 – 100% Streaming
Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, plus many streaming picks. And Bob Fuller guests in a tribute to Fred Willard. Catch an extended video interview with Bob, plus more details and links at https://thepickcast.com
Episode 8 – 100% Music
New music, old music, and Kevin guesses which music. An episode with music only, paired with episode 9 which is all streaming picks. // Find more details, links, and playlists at https://thepickcast.com
The debate rages on…. Bull or Bear?
The Bull Market Is Over. It’s Time To Sell The Rips, Not Buy The Dips
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4354018-bull-market-is-over-time-to-sell-rips-not-buy-dips?utm_source=push&utm_medium=onesignal&utm_campaign=20-06-18-article-2
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 19th 2985/3005-3185/3205 condors for 1.15, IV 26%, SPX 3106, deltas -.06, +.06
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 19th 3030/3050 call spreads for 18.00. Condors bought last Friday for 18.40. I’m waiting to sell put spread on any move down. I wanted to exit to avoid gap down risk tomorrow morning.
Also, added the remaining call spreads that I wasn’t filled on yesterday for June 24th 3090/3110-3120/3140 for 1.05 less than yesterday.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 24th 3090/3110-3120/3140 condors for 18.55. I tried legging in but it didn’t help the pretty high premium on this, due volatility the last hour. Only partially filled on the call side so I will try to add the last contracts tomorrow.
#SPX1dte Expired: June 17th 2975/2995-3225/3245 condors, sold yesterday for 1.45.
SPX 1 dte
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX June 17th 2975/2995-3225/3245 condors for 1.45, IV 32.9%, SPX 3114, deltas -.06, +.05
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Legged out of the $SPX June 17th 3180/3200-3210/3230 condor on the swings this morning.
BTO condors for 17.35 last Wednesday.
STC call spreads at 7:01 PDT for 2.60
STC put spreads at 7:57 PDT for 17.50
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX June 22nd 3030/3050-3060/3080- condors for 18.30, with SPX at 3054.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 19th 3000/3020-3030/3050 condors for 18.40, with SPX at 3017.
Econ Calendar for week of 6/15/20
#FOMC Jerome Powell opens his yapper again on Wednesday
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX (no) trades
#SPX7dteLong Missed my chance for small profit yesterday and instead sold to close $SPX June 12th 3200/3220 call spreads this morning for 1.20. Bought for 9.30 last Friday. As I commented then, throwing in the towel on the relentless bull run probably would mark the top.
I am skipping the #SPX1dte for tomorrow. Premium is not high enough for the risk.
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 26, 2020 AC -5.95%
Dec. 11, 2019 AC -3.73%
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
Avg (+ or -) 9.24%
Bias 5.40%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 311.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 288.00 to 334.00 (+/- 7.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 282.27 to 339.73
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.3%): 260.28 to 361.72
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 269.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADBE earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
March 12, 2020 AC +17.71% Biggest UP
Dec. 12, 2019 AC +3.91%
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -1.74%
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21%
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Buggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias 1.36%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 400.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 382.20 to 417.80 (+/- 4.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 381.47 to 418.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.7%): 329.16 to 470.84
Based on DOWN max only (-7.3%): 370.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 17th 3180/3200-3210/3230 condors for 17.35, with SPX at 3207.
Expiring: June 10th 3100/3120-3130/3150 condors, max profit of 20.00 on call side. Bought for 17.10 last Wednesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring: June 10th 3100/3120-3285/3305 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 10th 3100/3120-3285/3305 condors for 1.10, IV: 22.25%, SPX 3209, deltas -.06, +.05.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 15th 3195/3215-3225/3245 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 3219.
Episode 7 – Fifty Albums (plus the Moon)
Our 50 States Project — Completing Sufjan Stevens’ broken promise to release an album for each state… our guest has done it. All in three months. Plus: Snowpiercer, big screen to small screen. And more. // Find more details, links, and playlists at https://thepickcast.com
SPX 7dte
#SPX7dteLong. Bought to Open $SPX June 12th 3200/3220 call spreads for 9.25, with SPX at 3192. Only going with call side this time. Which probably means I just called the market top!
SPX 1dte
#SPX1dte Playing for more upside on Monday with #RiskReversal. Placed as one trade:
Sold to Open $SPX June 8th 3130/3110 put spreads for .81
Bought to Open $SPX June 8th 3260/3280 call spreads for .51.
Net credit .30
Econ Calendar for week of 6/8/20
#FOMC Announcement and Press Conference Wednesday afternoon
Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
May Jobs Report
#Jobs — Here is full data from today’s report. March and April both revised down, but not enough to overtake the huge gain in May.
Gain of +2,510,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 8.3M loss
Unemployment at 13.3%, down by 1.4%, vs. expected 19.5%
U6 unemployment at 21.2%, down by 1.6%
Avg Hourly Earnings down by 0.965%
Labor force participation 60.8%, up by 0.6
April revised down from -20.5M to -20.7M
March revised down from -870K to -1.4M
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong GTC order filled in pre-market: Sold to close $SPX June 8th 3060/3080 call spreads for 19.20. Will try to get a few cents for put side today. Condors bought for 17.50 on Monday.
#SPX1dte STOPPED: BTC $SPX June 5th 3160/3180 call spreads for 6.75. Condors sold for 1.05 yesterday. Even with expected job losses, I didn’t expect market to drop today. But certainly did not expect this explosion. I will not be selling call spreads as often in this environment.
May Jobs Report
#Jobs — Actually GAINED rather than expected loss.
Gain of +2,510,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected 8.3M loss
Unemployment at 13.3%, down by 1.4%, vs. expected 19.5%
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 5th 3010/3030-3160/3180 condors for 1.05, IV 18.25%, SPX 3104, deltas -.05, +.06
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 5th 3040/3020 put spreads for .80. Looking to close the call side before today’s close. Want to avoid the possible volatility after tomorrow morning’s #Jobs report.
Bought the condors for 17.35 last Friday.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 10th 3100/3120-3130/3150 condors for 17.10, with SPX at 3126.
UVXY longs
#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY July 17th 90 calls for .47. I’d prefer to go further out in time but there are no August options yet and September’s are still pretty expensive. I’m looking to add some Sept soon.
SPX calls stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX June 3rd 3120/3140 call spreads for 2.00. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.
VXX long calls
#VXXGame Loading up some longs for next volatility spike. In March, some of these I bought for .30 were sold for over 50.00. Be surprised if that happens again, but at least they can hedge any shorts I sell. Also trying some $UVXY but wasn’t filled yet.
Bought to open $VXX August 85 calls for .50.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 3rd 2970/2990-3120/3140 condors for 1.10, IV: 18.86%, SPX 3063, deltas: -.06, +.06
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 8th 3030/3050-3060/3080 condors for 17.50, w/SPX at 3058.
Expiring: June 1st 3010/3030 call spreads for 20.00. Condors bought for 16.65 last Tuesday.
#SPX1dte Expiring: June 1st 2910/2930-3110/3130 condors, sold Friday for 1.10.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX June 1st 2910/2930-3110/3130 condors for 1.10. IV: 17.3%, SPX 3040, deltas: -.05, +.05.
Expiring: May 29th 2920/2940-3090/3110 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 5th 3030/3040-3050/3070 condors for 17.35, with SPX at 3043.
I realized today that I mistakenly SOLD my June 3rd 2990/3010-3020/3040 7dteLong condor instead of buying it (sold for 17.25 on Wednesday). So today I BTC the call spread for 11.00, and am now looking to close the put spread for 4.40 before the close.
Regarding today’s expiration, the sale of the 2940/2920 put side of my 1-dte condors yesterday effectively closed my long put spread of the same strikes I sold last Friday. So at the open today, I sold the May 29th 2960/2940 put spread for .85. That should expire with full profit.
Econ Calendar for week of 6/1/20
#JOBS report for May is Friday morning
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 29th 2920/2940-3090/3110 condors for 1.10. IV 22%, SPX 3026, deltas -.06, +.06.
Selling that actually closed the put side of my long condor. I want to sell it again to officially take the profit on my long and leave me short as intended.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dte In pre-market, GTC order filled: Sold to close $SPX May 29th 2950/2970 call spreads for 19.00.
Condors bought for 17.35 on Friday. Will look to sell the put side for around 1.00.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX June 3rd 2990/3010-3020/3040 condors for 17.25, with SPX at 3019.
I did not close the put side of today’s condor. It went as high as 7.00 but I decided to hold it to see if I could get more. I had made 1.60 on the trade so it was a conscious decision.
#SPX1dte expiring: May 27th 2905/2925-30503070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00.
NTAP earnings analysis
#Earnings $NTAP reports tonight. Options trades need to be placed today to capture any earnings move. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 12, 2020 AC -9.27%
Nov. 13, 2019 AC +3.17%
Aug. 14, 2019 AC +3.93%
May 22, 2019 AC -8.10%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC -5.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC -11.72% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 15, 2018 AC -3.58%
May 23, 2018 AC +1.93%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC -4.89%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +15.91% Biggest UP
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -6.72%
May 24, 2017 AC +3.53%
Avg (+ or -) 6.52%
Bias -1.77%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 45.40 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 42.28 to 48.52 (+/- 6.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 42.44 to 48.36
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 38.18 to 52.62
Based on DOWN max only (-11.7%): 40.08
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong In pre-market, GTC order filled: Bought to close $SPX May 27th 2980/3000 call spreads for 18.60. Condors sold last Wednesday for 17.00. Will sell put side early in the day.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX May 27th 2905/2925-3050/3070 condors for 1.00, IV: 17.97%, SPX 2992, deltas: -.06, +.04
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX June 1st 2980/3000-3010/3030 condors for 16.65, with SPX at 2995.
Call spread today now being threatened so watching closely and trying to exit for 19.90 or so.
SPX call side stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX May 26th 3025/3045 cll spreads for 3.75. Condors sold Friday for 1.10.
#SPX7dteLong May 26th 2970/2990 call spreads set to expire for 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 17.15. Have to keep a watch for too deep a pullback, however.
Episode 6 – These Six Yutes
Millennial/Gen Z Takeover — we pass the mics to six youth from the world over to give us their Picks for music, TV, and more. // Find more details, links, and playlists at https://thepickcast.com
Options Bistro 