#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 21st 3270/3290-3350/3370 condors for 1.00, IV 5.44%, SPX 3323.
Expiring today: Jan 17th 3255/3275-3330/3350 condors, sold yesterday for .90
Author Archives: Jeff
Econ Calendar for week of 1/20/20
Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
JPM closed
#Earnings Sold to close $JPM Jan 17th 138 calls for .40 (large accounts), and 38/40 call spreads for .35 (smaller accounts). #CallButterfly bought for .33 on Monday, so all about breakeven after commissions.
PNC closed
#Earnings #Assignment On Tuesday I bought $PNC Jan17/Jan24 160 #DoubleCalendar for .50.
Stock dropped too much so trade was a loser. Assigned last night on the puts at 160.00.
Today, sold long puts for 6.60 and stock for 153.53. So I managed to squeeze .13 out of closing the trade.
SLB earnings analysis
#Earnings $SLB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2019 BO +1.31%
July 19, 2019 BO -0.18%
April 18, 2019 BO -3.90% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +8.12% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
July 20, 2018 BO -1.24%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.49%
Jan. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -2.09%
July 21, 2017 BO -0.73%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.18%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO -0.81%
Avg (+ or -) 1.85%
Bias -0.26%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 37.06 to 40.14
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 37.89 to 39.31
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.1%): 35.47 to 41.73
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 37.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
STT earnings analysis
#Earnings $STT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2019 BO +6.09%
July 19, 2019 BO +6.73% Biggest UP
April 23, 2019 BO -4.34%
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +0.35%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -8.53% Biggest DOWN
July 20, 2018 BO -7.40%
April 20, 2018 BO -4.33%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO +2.92%
Oct. 23, 2017 BO -2.97%
July 26, 2017 BO +1.88%
April 26, 2017 BO +3.63%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO -3.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.38%
Bias -0.78%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 80.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.01 to 83.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.50 to 83.50
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 73.18 to 86.82
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 85.38
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1 dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 17th 3255/3275-3330/3350 condors for .90, IV 8.32%, SPX 3308
FAST earnings analysis
#Earnings $FAST reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 11, 2019 BO +17.15% Biggest UP
July 11, 2019 BO -2.84%
April 11, 2019 BO +5.04%
Jan. 17, 2019 BO +5.94%
Oct. 10, 2018 BO -7.13%
July 11, 2018 BO +10.05%
April 11, 2018 BO -6.19%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -5.84%
Oct. 11, 2017 BO -0.78%
July 12, 2017 BO -1.99%
April 12, 2017 BO -8.04% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO +5.80%
Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias 0.93%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.63 to 39.37
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 34.63 to 39.37 (exactly the same)
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.2%): 30.65 to 43.35
Based on DOWN max only (-8.0%): 34.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
VXX longs
#VXXGame . Bought to open $UVXY March 20th 25 calls for .32, and $VXX March 20th 25 calls for .24.
These are longs I can later sell against, assuming a volatility spike will be coming before too long.
SPX long closed
#SPX1dte SOld to close $SPX Jan 17th 3315/3330 call spread for .95. Bought yesterday for 1.60. Have been trying to exit all day… got as high as 3.00, but kept reversing before I was filled. My timing in January has been atrocious, so not letting this one fail completely. I sold the 3250/3225 put spread against it for 1.90. That one is currently profitable and I think will be fine to leave for tomorrow.
Expiring today: Jan 15th 3220/3240-3305/3325 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00
VIX hedges
#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX March 17th 17/20 call spreads for .52.
Also, added to Feb 18th 19/22 for .28. First bought on Nov 18th for .60.
PPG earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PPG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 17, 2019 BO +1.91%
July 18, 2019 BO +0.33%
April 18, 2019 BO +2.10%
Jan. 17, 2019 BO +4.70% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2018 BO +0.88%
July 19, 2018 BO -0.33%
April 19, 2018 BO -3.13%
Jan. 18, 2018 BO +3.41%
Oct. 19, 2017 BO +1.26%
July 20, 2017 BO -6.05% Biggest DOWN
April 20, 2017 BO +1.30%
Jan. 19, 2017 BO +0.83%
Avg (+ or -) 2.19%
Bias 0.60%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 125.90 to 136.10
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 128.14 to 133.86
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 123.07 to 138.93
Based on UP max only (+4.7%): 137.16
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 15th 3220/3240-3305/3325 condors for 1.00, IV 9.28%, SPX 3281
Risky Risk/Reversal
#SPX1dte Okay, so I’m taking a shot that this weakness it temporary and bullish trend will continue this week.
Sold to open $SPX Jan 17th 3250/3225 put spreads for 1.90.
Bought to open $SPX Jan 17th 3315/3330 call spreads for 1.60.
I’m not going to look for my call spread to become ITM… just any modest increase in price will be good enough to close it.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 17th 3320/3345 call spreads for 2.25. Paid 2.35 for the condor yesterday.
I did this literally 30 seconds before the huge spike down. Unbelievable!
My plan was to allow put side to expire, add a closer put spread and BUY a call spread. I may still do this, but have to watch for awhile to see what happens. Market is bullish, and I truly don’t understand how it has reacted or will react to the volatile trade situation. No one does.
News flash
CHINA TARIFFS TO STAY UNTIL AFTER U.S. ELECTION DESPITE DEAL
PNC earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2019 BO -0.28%
July 17, 2019 BO +0.66%
April 12, 2019 BO +3.09% Biggest UP
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +0.07%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72%
Avg (+ or -) 1.36%
Bias -0.53%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 160.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 155.41 to 164.59
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 157.82 to 162.18
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 151.07 to 168.93
Based on UP max only (+3.1%): 164.94
Open to requests for other symbols.
GS earnings analysis
#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +0.31%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.86%
April 15, 2019 BO -3.81%
Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Avg (+ or -) 2.73%
Bias -0.27%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 245.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 236.02 to 253.98
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 238.32 to 251.68
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 221.63 to 268.37
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 233.46
Open to requests for other symbols.
Upside Warning reinstated
#VIXindicator We kicked off a “minor” Upside Warning last night, based on the small VIX spike from Jan 3 and 6. These occur when a volatility spike cancels a previous UpW but no Downside Warning comes. In the past, they often signal continued momentum higher.
BBBY closed
#Earnings . Sold to close $BBBY stock for 15.00. 16.5 #ShortStraddle sold last week for 1.87, calls closed for .01, assigned Friday, so ending profit of .36.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte . Sold to Open $SPX Jan 17th (Friday PM) 3195/3220-3320/3345 condors for 2.35. Strikes at .10 delta.
JPM butterfly
#Earnings Bought to open $JPM Jan 17th 38/40/42 #CallButterfly for .33. Needs to land near 140 on Friday for best profit. Open Interest at that strike are large, and it’s a +2.3% move from now, which is a reasonable expectation…. if we get a bullish move.
JPM earnings analysis (corrected)
#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 15, 2019 BO +3.01%
July 16, 2019 BO +1.07%
April 12, 2019 BO +4.68% Biggest UP
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.73%
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Avg (+ or -) 1.52%
Bias 0.42%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.71 to 140.29
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 133.93 to 138.07
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 129.64 to 142.36
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 132.33
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX long
#SPX1dte Sold to close $SPX 3290/3305 call spreads for .25. Bought for .80 on Friday. Didn’t get the surge I hoped for, and Friday’s lower close didn’t help. Also should expire today: 3240/3220 put spreads, sold for .70. So I’ll net .15 for the day!
BBBY assigned
#Earnings #Assignment Assigned $BBBY shares at 16.50. Need price above 14.63 to breakeven from #ShortStrangle
SPX risk reversal
#SPX1dte Took a .10 debit to place this bullish #RiskReversal for Monday:
Sold $SPX Jan 13th 3240/3220 put spread for .70.
Bought $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3305 call spreads for .80
Expiring:
Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads, sold yesterday for .70
December Jobs Report
#Jobs — Lowest U6 ever
+145,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 160K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, unchanged
U6 unemployment at 6.7%, down by 0.2%, a record low (since 1994)
Wages up 0.1%, to 2.9% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged
November revised down from 266K to 256K
October revised down from 156K to 152K
Jobs tomorrow
Don’t forget, the Jobs report is released before the open tomorrow. This market tends to like catalysts for quick moves.
How low can you go?
#VXXgame Now that the Great Iran Volatility Event of 2020 has ended (or at least paused), we hit new all-time lows on $VXX and $UVXY today.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 10th 3235/3210 put spreads for .70. Not yet sure what I’ll do with call side, if anything.
Also getting out of the Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spread sold yesterday. I don’t know why I made the same trade as last week that crushed me. At least this time the loss will be small. I will now stop thinking upward momentum MUST slow down. Apparently, it does not.
UBER out
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Jan 10th 31.5 calls for 2.00. Strangles sold for .80 on Dec 6th for .80. Puts previously closed for .05.
#Rolling : Sold $UBER Jan 31st 32/36 strangles for .86. Won’t make up for the loss but will keep it going
SPX lucky expiration
#SPX1dte That was NOT a fun run up to 3267. But my condor from yesterday has expired worthless.
$SPX Jan 8th 3190/3210-3260/3280, sold yesterday for .80.
SPX 5-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 13th 3290/3315 call spreads for 1.70. I’m not bearish… just don’t think we’ll be moving so fast if we go higher.
I am riding our today’s 3260 call side of condor.
BBBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 2, 2019 AC +2.69%
July 10, 2019 AC -3.03%
April 10, 2019 AC -8.75%
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55% Biggest UP
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC +3.38%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%
Avg (+ or -) 10.73%
Bias -6.96%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 14.68 to 18.82
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.95 to 18.55
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%): 13.23 to 20.27
Based on UP max only (+16.6%): 19.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 8th 3185/3205-3260/3280 condors for .80. IV: 8.16%, SPX 3239.
STZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 3, 2019 BO -6.05%
June 28, 2019 BO +4.63%
April 4, 2019 BO +6.54%
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -5.79%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75% Biggest UP
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Avg (+ or -) 5.96%
Bias 1.89%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 187.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 177.59 to 197.41
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 176.32 to 198.68
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 164.23 to 210.77
Based on UP max only (+9.8%): 205.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX puts closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Jan 6th 3175 puts for .05. Spreads sold for .40 on Friday.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator The Upside Warning was canceled this morning with the VIX spike. We can now watch for a high VIX close to trigger a Downside Warning, or if we can close back below 12.68 we can look for a reinstated Upside Warning.
SPX-ing
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 6th 3175/3150 put spreads for .40. Looking for small rally into close to sell 3270/3290 call side.
Also selling to close Jan 6th 3265/3280 long call spread…. it has broken even a few times today, then always retreated. Now looks like it will be small loss as I don’t want to risk a full loss by waiting for Monday.
Expiring:
Jan 3rd 3200/3220-3270/3790 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
Jan 3rd 3210/3185 put spreads sold last Friday for 2.60.
Econ Calendar for week of 1/6/20
#Jobs report is Friday at 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 3rd 3200/3220-3270/3290 condors for .85, IV 7.75%, SPX 3247.
SPX long calls
#SPX1dte Went long on the pullback as I think we will stair step higher for next few days; warning, however… what I “think” has not been working too well lately!
Bought to Open $SPX Jan 6th 3265/3280 call spreads for 1.45.
Monster rally continues
#SPX1dte I resolve in 2020 to ask before putting on certain trades: “Is it a better risk to BUY or SELL this spread?” I should have asked that Tuesday when I sold a call spread during this Upside Warning and blistering rally!
Happy New Year everyone! 3,500 on S&P this year? Or will that threatened recession start?
Final 2019 trades
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 3rd 3250/3275 call spreads for 1.70. Offsets 3210/3185 put spreads sold Friday for 2.60.
Expiring today: Dec 31st 3155/3175/3255/3275 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 31st 3155/3175-3255/3275 condors for .80, IV: 10.48%, SPX 3223.
UBER strangle
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Jan 10th 25.5 puts for .05. GTC Order in to close 31.5 calls for same. Strangles sold for .80 on Dec 6th.
Stops breached.
#SPX1dte . Stops have been breached on all three of the put spreads I’m holding. Looking to exit, but also have to run out for awhile.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/30/19
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Stopped at the car charger in Rawlins, WY, to place the trade:
Sold $SPX Dec 30th 3195/3215-3250/3270 condors for .85. IV: 5.64%, SPX 3234.
Man, my exit this morning really sucked. Had to hit the road early so I couldn’t wait, but I’ve so many times seen futures up before the open, and then just sail higher after the bell. Happened exactly the opposite way today, so I got shafted. Fortunately, it wiped out only a couple of trades from a pretty good string these last few weeks.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Should rolled this into a long call spread at the close yesterday…
BTC $SPX Dec 27th 3250/3270 call spreads for 3.30. Condors sold yesterday for .80. This will break me even on this trade plus the put spread for 12/31.
Driving today so I had to get out when I could… cheaper exit available now.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 27th 3195/3215-3250/3270 condors for .80.
IV: 5.69%, SPX 3234, deltas: .09 each side. Still more aggressive than my usual .06-.07, but I don’t anticipate big moves until after holidays.
Hello NUGT my old friend
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT June 19th 47 calls for 3.80 (highest strike). First position in NUGT in awhile.
Also looking at $GUSH, which is reaching 3-month highs.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 31st 3200/3175 put spreads for 2.60. 7-dte by calendar but only 4 trading days.
Likely expiring today: Dec 24th 3200/3210-3245/3255 condors, sold yesterday for .45.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 24th 3200/3210-3245/3255 condors for .45, 10-wide, double sized. Last year’s Xmas Eve plunge notwithstanding, I’m betting against any big moves tomorrow.
Expiring:
Dec 23rd 3185/3195-3245/3255 condors, sold Friday for .40
Dec 23rd 3160/3135 put spreads, sold last Tuesday for 2.00
Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays from Denver!
Refresh your page for holiday cheer.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/23/19
The market closes early on Tuesday, 1pm ET.
Closed on Wednesday.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 23rd 3185/3195-3245/3255 condors for .45, 10-wide, double sized position. Did this on my Mac while Tesla was in Auto Pilot. Not recommended, but I forgot to do it while we were stopped.
Calendars bust
#Earnings Both Dub Cals this week closed at losses. $FDX never had a chace, closed for a debit of .02. $ACN was profitable yesterday, but Ii made the mistake of waiting: closed for a credit of .15 to .30.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 20th 3230/3250 call spreads for .40. Condors sold yesterday for .75.
Stop was breached at the open. Hitting the road today so won’t be able to manage much.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 20th 3160/3180-3230/3250 condors for .75, IV 8.97%, SPX 3205. Another slightly aggressive one with deltas at .10/.08
NKE earnings analysis
#Earnings $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 24, 2019 AC +4.16%
June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Avg (+ or -) 4.51%
Bias 1.33%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 95.68 to 104.32
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 95.49 to 104.51
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 88.88 to 111.12
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 92.95
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX Dec 18th 3150/3170-3220/3240 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
ACN dub cal
#Earnings . Bought to Open $ACN Dec20/Dec27 202.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55. Only partial fill. Probably need to bid higher now to get filled.
ACN earnings analysis
#Earnings $ACN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 26, 2019 BO +0.65%
June 27, 2019 BO -0.16%
March 28, 2019 BO +5.19%
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -4.94%
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -1.68%
June 28, 2018 BO +5.89% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 BO -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 21, 2017 BO +1.61%
Sept. 28, 2017 BO -0.23%
June 22, 2017 BO -3.95%
March 23, 2017 BO -4.52%
Dec. 21, 2016 BO -4.99%
Avg (+ or -) 3.42%
Bias -1.20%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 204.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 195.74 to 212.26
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 197.01 to 210.99
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 189.15 to 218.85
Based on UP max only (+5.9%): 216.02
Open to requests for other symbols.
MU earnings analysis
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 26, 2019 AC -11.09% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68%
Avg (+ or -) 7.61%
Bias 1.79%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 49.56 to 56.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 48.97 to 57.03
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 45.93 to 60.07
Based on DOWN max only (-11.1%): 47.12
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 18th 3150/3170-3220/3240 condors for .80, IV 7.89%, SPX 3195.
Since Upside Warning s firing today, this leans bullish, with usual .06 delat on call side but .10 on put side.
FDX dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $FDX Dec20/Dec27 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .85.
FDX earnings analysis
#Earnings $FDX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -12.91% Biggest DOWN
June 25, 2019 AC +2.52%
March 19, 2019 AC -3.49%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -12.16%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -5.53%
June 19, 2018 AC -2.69%
March 20, 2018 AC -1.17%
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +3.51% Biggest UP
Sept. 19, 2017 AC +2.08%
June 20, 2017 AC +1.60%
March 21, 2017 AC +2.12%
Dec. 20, 2016 AC -3.33%
Avg (+ or -) 4.43%
Bias -2.45%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 162.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 150.97 to 174.03
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 155.31 to 169.69
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 141.52 to 183.48
Based on UP max only (+3.5%): 168.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 6-dte
#SPX1dte In honor of likely Upside Warning: Sold $SPX Dec 23rd 3160/3135 put spreads for 2.00.
I saw Santa kissing 3200
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning will go into effect Tuesday with a VIX close at 12.82 or lower.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 16th 3200 calls for .20. Condors sold for .80 on Friday.
AXSM
#ShortPuts Followed @optioniceman with the high vol stock that @330nick found
Sold $AXSM Dec 20th 25 puts for 1.70
Sold $AXSM Dec 20th 22.5 puts for 1.35
Don’t do these wild ones much anymore, but the low stock price limits the risk.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 16th 3090/3110-3200/3220 condors for .80. IV 9.21%, SPX 3168.
Expiring: Dec 13th 3090/3110-3205/3225 condors, sold yesterday for .80.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/16/19
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 3, 2019 AC +0.92%
May 30, 2019 AC -0.81%
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Avg (+ or -) 3.35%
Bias -1.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 297.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 287.83 to 307.17
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 287.53 to 307.47
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-8.6%): 271.97 to 323.03
Based on UP max only (+5.1%): 312.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 