Markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King holiday.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=21&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
Author Archives: Jeff
TOS question
When I closed down the application, it says “saving configuration.” How do I save configuration without closing the application?
Call rolls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Rolled $SQ Jan 18th 66 calls to Feb 1st 67 calls for .25 credit.
Rolled $TQQQ Jan 18th 42.5 calls to Feb 1st 43.5 calls for .25 credit.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Upside stop was hit, so…
Bought to close $SPX Jan 18th 2680/2700 call spreads for .85. Puts will expire. Iron condors sold yesterday for .80, so I lost .05 and commissions. Will sell another for Tuesday expiration.
Looks like I picked the wrong year to…
#VXXGame #LongLEAPs Over the years I put a lot of research into the idea of buying long $VXX LEAP puts, since the symbol is dragged toward zero over time. I built an extensive spreadsheet showing how this strategy would have worked with every VIX leap expiration since 2006 except Jan 2009, during the financial crisis. (VXX was created in 2009, but there are models available of how it would have performed going back to 2004).
Other than Jan 2009, the 18-month to 24-month decline in $VXX is usually 60-90%; even as much as 97% down over 24 months.
So when I started buying the Jan 2019 VXX 20 puts on September 5th, 2017, the odds looked pretty good for a decent profit. I started scaling in and ended up with a total of 32 puts over multiple accounts, average price 1.603. I also sold some 50/60 call spreads against it, lowering that cost basis down to about 1.20.
But, guess what? Picked the wrong year! This is the first LEAP expiration since 2009 where this strategy did not work. And now $VXX is going away at the end of this month, replaced by $VXXB, which doesn’t have much volume yet. However, they HAVE finally added LEAPs, so I’ll be looking to start buying.
Also, because of the product termination, I closed my final short shares in $VXX today for 37.25. I was assigned 100 shares short for 27.00, and had managed to scale out of 30 of them when we dipped below 27.00 in September. Then, October happened.
Sensitive
#Market is way too reactionary to anything “tariffs.”
BREAKING: Stocks rise to session high as report says China to offer path to eliminate trade imbalance with UShttps://t.co/Nfcv5j71T9
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) January 18, 2019
$T puts closed
#PieTrades #ShortPuts Well, was planning to let this expire or take assignment, but I forgot I had entered a GTC order weeks ago. So it just filled.
Bought to close $T Jan 18th 31 puts for .15. Sold for 1.37 on Oct 24th. Following @fuzzballl on this, but I’ll do the same thing again, sell ATM puts a couple months out, and if assigned take the stock (and dividend) and sell covered calls.
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 18th 2570/2590-2680/2700 iron condors for .80.
SPX 1-dte closing
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 17th (monthly) 2670/2690 call spreads for .30. Order in to close put spreads for .05. Whole shebang sold yesterday for .85.
Selling a new one for tomorrow’s PM expiration
AA dbl cal closed
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Was trying to get filled on the dip, when the dip exploded into a market rally.
Sold to close $AA Jan18/Jan25 29 double calendar for .51. Bought yesterday for .44. Meager.
Waiting for tomorrow on $MS
Tariffs shmariffs
KSU earnings analysis
#Earnings I’m looking at this for a double calendar. Decent IV crush with small historic moves. However, bid/ask pretty wide so it will depend on the mid-price I can get. I’ll see what I can do in the last hour of the day.
$KSU reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +3.35%
July 20, 2018 BO +2.39%
April 20, 2018 BO +1.55%
Jan. 19, 2018 BO -1.34%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.35%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.13%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.84% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 20, 2017 BO +4.03%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO -2.24%
July 19, 2016 BO +1.88%
April 19, 2016 BO +4.97% Biggest UP
Jan. 22, 2016 BO +4.44%
Avg (+ or -) 2.63%
Bias 1.56%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 103.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 99.64 to 107.36
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 100.78 to 106.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.0%): 98.36 to 108.64
Open for requests on other symbols.
SLB earnings analysis
#Earnings $SLB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
July 20, 2018 BO -1.24%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.49%
Jan. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -2.09%
July 21, 2017 BO -0.73%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.18%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO -0.81%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -3.03% Biggest DOWN
July 21, 2016 AC +1.98%
April 21, 2016 AC -0.42%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC +6.10% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 1.68%
Bias -0.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 41.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 39.55 to 42.45
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 40.31 to 41.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 38.50 to 43.50
Open for requests on other symbols.
Calendars
$AA gapped down then shot up through my strike. Didn’t get filled on my close order as it went past, now it’s getting too high. Will wait for a drift back down.
$MS gapped down and has stayed down. I bought to close Jan 18th short 29 call for .03, removing upside risk for a possible bounce into tomorrow.
AXP earnings analysis
#Earnings $AXP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +3.78%
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72%
April 18, 2018 AC +7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC +5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +9.02% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC +0.90%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC -12.10% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.91%
Bias 0.62%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 99.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 95.21 to 103.79
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 95.51 to 103.29
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 87.37 to 111.43
Open for requests on other symbols.
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -0.13%
Avg (+ or -) 8.04%
Bias 2.10%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 350.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 321.39 to 378.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 321.85 to 378.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 283.43 to 416.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
MS and AA earnings calendars
#DoubleCalendar #Earnings Forgot about these earlier… just threw them on now.
Bought to Open $MS 18Jan/25Jan 45 double calendar for .334.
Bought to Open $AA 18Jan/25Jan 29 double calendar for .44
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 17th (monthlys) 2545/2565-2670/2690 iron condors for .85. These stop trading at tomorrow’s close but settle on Friday morning, so I will close during market hours tomorrow.
Expiring today: Jan 16th 2535/2555-2650/2670 condors, sold yesterday for .95.
AA earnings analysis
#Earnings $AA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 17, 2018 AC +5.85%
July 18, 2018 AC -13.34% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +1.39%
Jan. 17, 2018 AC -7.00%
Nov. 17, 2017 AC -2.74%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 19, 2017 AC +0.60%
April 24, 2017 AC +9.54% Biggest UP
Jan. 24, 2017 AC -2.58%
Oct. 10, 2016 AC -11.42%
July 11, 2016 AC +5.42%
April 11, 2016 AC -2.66%
Avg (+ or -) 5.42%
Bias -1.62%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 28.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 26.23 to 30.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 26.67 to 29.73
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 24.44 to 31.96
Open for requests on other symbols.
Market Tide
#Tide I now have the Market Tide indicators on all my charts. Looks pretty solid. Also noticed that SPY 1-hour chart just printed a purple arrow, signaling a possible top for at least a few days.
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 16th 2535/2555-2650/2670 iron condors for .95. Legged in, put spread first for .55 after the Brexit dip, then call spread on the bounce for .40
UAL earnings analysis
#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%
July 19, 2016 BO +0.29%
April 20, 2016 BO +0.94%
Jan. 21, 2016 BO +0.46%
Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -1.03%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 81.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.15 to 85.25
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 77.44 to 84.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 71.40 to 91.00
Open for requests on other symbols.
PNC earnings analysis
#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%
Jan. 15, 2016 BO -0.62%
Avg (+ or -) 1.21%
Bias -1.00%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 119.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.40 to 122.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.56 to 120.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 112.36 to `25.64
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX Feb condor
#SPX1dte On Jan 4th I sold the $SPX Feb 15th 2250/2270-2730/2750 iron condors for 3.00, as a roll from a 1-dte spread that was a .50 loser. The idea is to make back the premium over a longer period while continuing to sell the 1-dte spreads every week.
Today, I closed the put spread side for .50. Order is in to close the call side for .70.
GS earnings analysis
#Earnings $GS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01% Biggest UP
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.28%
Jan. 20, 2016 BO -1.95%
Avg (+ or -) 2.06%
Bias -0.82%, slight negative bias on earnings.
NOTE: Another minor mover on earnings; 3-day maxes show no significant differences.
With stock at 178.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 170.85 to 185.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 174.33 to 181.67
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.7%): 169.62 to 186.38
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte expires
#SPX1dte Expiring today: $SPX Jan 14th 2520/2540-2630/2650 condors, sold for .90 on Friday.
JPM earnings analysis
#Earnings $JPM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -1.09%
July 13, 2018 BO -0.45%
April 13, 2018 BO -2.70% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +1.65%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -0.28%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.91%
April 13, 2017 BO -1.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.53%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO -0.32%
July 14, 2016 BO +1.51%
April 13, 2016 BO +4.23% Biggest UP
Jan. 14, 2016 BO +1.49%
Avg (+ or -) 1.36%
Bias 0.21%, slight positive bias on earnings.
NOTE: JPM is a very small mover on earnings. The above are the 1-day moves; I checked 5-day moves, but the +4.23% move above was still the highest.
With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 96.58 to 103.42
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 98.64 to 101.36
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.2%): 95.77 to 104.23
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 14th 2520/2540-2630/2650 iron condors for .90.
Econ Calendar for week of 1/14/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=14&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed short calls for .10 and short puts for .05. Condor sold yesterday for .90.
Will sell one for Monday at the end of the day.
C (Citigroup) earnings analysis
#Earnings $C reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 12, 2018 BO +2.13%
July 13, 2018 BO -2.20%
April 13, 2018 BO -1.55%
Jan. 16, 2018 BO +2.27%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -7.63%
July 14, 2017 BO -2.58%
April 13, 2017 BO -5.07%
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -5.02%
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +5.66%
July 15, 2016 BO +5.93% Biggest UP
April 15, 2016 BO +5.61%
Jan. 15, 2016 BO -13.59% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 4.94%
Bias -1.34%, slight negative bias on earnings.
NOTE: above are the 1-day moves; I checked 5-day moves and the ranges are actually LOWER, meaning that any extreme one-day moves were faded to be less severe after a few days.
With stock at 57.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into next Friday per TOS): 53.98 to 60.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.19 to 59.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.6%): 49.25 to 64.75
Open for requests on other symbols.
It’s brutal out there…
Macy*s says comp store sales will be more like 2% than 2.3% for this year, and investors reacted calmly by ripping 25% of its market cap out like Patrick Swayze ripped out that dude’s throat in Roadhouse.
We are very chill on Wall Street.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) January 10, 2019
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 11th 2520/2540-2635/2655 iron condors for .85
Jerome can’t stay quiet
Not originally scheduled, but added to the calendar:
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to participate in discussion at the Economic Club of Washington in Washington, DC.
Today, 12:45 ET
https://wp.me/p6Nxuc-eeY
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Exited short puts for .05, but had to pay .55 to exit call side. Condors sold for 1.20 yesterday.
BBBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
April 5, 2017 AC 3.38% Biggest UP
Dec. 21, 2016 AC -9.17%
Sept. 21, 2016 AC 0.74%
June 22, 2016 AC 1.50%
April 6, 2016 AC 0.32%
Jan. 7, 2016 AC 0.27%
Avg (+ or -) 8.38%
Bias -7.35%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 12.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 10.12 to 13.88
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 10.99 to 13.01
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%%): 9.48 to 14.52
Open for requests on other symbols.
TQQQ calls sold
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Jan 11th 42.5 calls for 1.45. A roll from this week’s calls that were stopped out.
Fed minutes
Heads up… Fed minutes released today at 2pm ET. Potential market mover.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 9th 2485/2505/2620/2640 condors for 1.20.
SQ calls sold
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold to Open $SQ Jan 18th 66 calls for 1.35. Replace the Jan 4th calls I stopped out of yesterday.
Calls stopped
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls First time I’ve had to do this in weeks. Both strikes breached so I exited on pull back and will wait for spikes higher to roll.
BTC $SQ Jan 11th 61 calls for 1.65. Sold for 1.20 on Friday.
BTC $TQQQ Jan 11th 40 calls for 1.30. Sold for .85 on Friday.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Earlier, closed $SPX Jan 7th shorts, puts for .05 and calls for .15. Condors sold Friday for 1.10
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 7th 2440/2460-2590/2610 condors for 1.10.
Calling again
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Jan 11th 40 calls for .85
Sold $SQ Jan 11th 61 calls for 1.20.
SPX Feb condor
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 2250/2270-2730/2750 condors for 3.00. Will close at or near 50%, or 1.50.
Econ calendar for week of 1/7/19
Fed minutes, Wednesday at 2pm ET.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=7&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte SPX hit my upside stop (expected move breached the 2520 short calls), so I exited on the pull back.
BTC $SPX Jan 4th 2520/2540 call spreads for 1.70. Condors sold yesterday for 1.25. Puts will expire, or close for .05.
I’ll be selling another 1-dte for Monday expiration. I’m looking for longer term roll options to replace today’s stop.
December Jobs Report
#Jobs Much higher than expected.
+312,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 176K expected
Unemployment at 3.9%, up 0.2%
U6 unemployment at 7.6%, unchanged
Wages up 0.4%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.1%, up by 0.2
November revised up from 155k to 176k
October revised up from 237K to 274k
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 4th 2345/2365-2520/2540 for 1.25.
PVTL covered calls
#CoveredCalls Sold $PVTL Jan 18th 17 calls for .50.
Calls closed (again)
If I was only selling calls and didn’t have #LongLEAPs, this would be a brilliant strategy!
BTC $TQQQ Jan 4th 39.5 calls for .05. Sold for .74 on Friday.
BTC $SQ Jan 4th 59 calls for .05. Sold for .79 on Friday.
Trades today
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 2nd 2380/2400/2570/2590 condors for 1.10.
BOIL out
#ContangoETFs Closing out the year by closing out final $BOIL positions. Was forced out of Jan 45 short calls by the spike higher… made some back with rolls, but still at a loss overall. I will reserve this symbol for large seasonal spikes in the future.
Closed BOIL Mar 50 call for .90. Sold for 4.15.
Closed BOIL June 66 call for .70. Sold for 7.20.
Best and Worst
Here are the best and worst performing stocks of this tough and volatile year for the market. https://t.co/LC2Zt7pE8X pic.twitter.com/VZo9Og3p77
— CNBC (@CNBC) December 31, 2018
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed both shorts for .05 each. Waiting for last hour to sell for Wednesday’s expiration.
Calls sold
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $TQQQ Jan 4th 59 calls for .79
Sold $SQ Jan 4th 39.5 calls for .74
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 31st 2360/2380-2570/2590 for 1.40.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed yesterday’s for .25 total. With the rolls I had to execute yesterday, the full trade ends up with a .35 loss.
Waiting until closer to the close to sell today’s, to avoid that kind of mess!
Econ Calendar for week of 12/31/18
#Jobs report is Friday. And Powell speaks later that morning.
Link to calendar: https://optionsbistro.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/screen-shot-2018-09-24-at-6-07-52-am.png
SPX 1-dte roll
#SPX1dte What a face ripper!
Sold the condor below for 1.30 with 48 minutes before close when SPX was at 2440.
The call side hit my stop 20 minutes later (expected move breached short strike) with SPX going past 2475.
Stopped call side, BTC for 2.65.
Sold new call side: $SPX Dec 28th 2565/2585 for .75.
Then rolled put side after the bell: Closed 2340/2320 for .10.
Sold 2400/2380 for .60.
So best I can do tomorrow is small loss, near breakeven. Bonkers market… gotta wait until last 10 minutes on this trade to be safe.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX 2320/2340-2520/2540 condors for 1.30. Shorts are 180 apart.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Closed shorts for .05 each. On Monday, sold the 2215/2235-2470/2490 condors for 1.40. Tomorrow I’ll sell one for the Friday expiration.
SQ closed
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $SQ Dec 28th 58 calls for .07. Sold for .75 on Friday.
On Christmas Eve?
#VIXIndicator Looks like two new downside warnings, on usually the quietest day of the year. Down 2% on Christmas Eve.
May your Christmas Day be free of volatility and full of cheer!
TQQQ calls covered
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
BTC $TQQQ Dec 28th 39 calls for .10. Sold for .85 on Friday.
SPX 1 -dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 26th 2215/2235-2470/2490 condors for 1.40. Short strikes 235 points apart.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Friday. Selling one for Wednesday expiration before the close.
UVXY spreads & overall approach
#VXXGame My attempts at legging out of the $UVXY Dec 21st 50/60 call spreads were also a failure, but only a bit worse than allowing them to expire. Sold for 5.68 (avg price), some will expire for 10.00, some closed for 10.60, and assigned short shares on a couple others, cost basis 69.43.
Also, I took off some risk this week without rolling. First we’ve experience a market like this 2008, and I wasn’t trading then. I hold very few short options positions compared to many times in the past, and my remaining short $UVXY calls are hedged with a greater number of long calls, albeit much further OTM.
Suffice it to say the only thing working right now are the 1-day SPX condors. I’m finished trying any more directional positions until market is clearly finished with this. If we go much lower, I will continue to shed positions slowly.
BTC $UVXY Mar 15th 75 call for 16.00, sold for 6.125, avg price, in Sept/Oct
BTC $UVXY March 15th 95 call for 10.15, breakeven, sold for 10.15 in late October.
Closed $SOXL Feb 15th 75 put for 12.70. Sold for 7.00 as a roll.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte I tried to leg out and leg in to the condors today. I continue to suck at those attempts like no other. This time, I paid more than necessary to exit today’s condor, but still with a profit. I was mildly successful at legging in to Monday’s.
Closed $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for .60 total. Sold for 1.05 yesterday.
Sold $SPX Dec 24th 2270/2290-2490/2510 condors for 1.40 total.
Econ Calendar for week of 12/24/18
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=24&month=12&year=2018&cust=us&lid=0
So touchy
This is perhaps the most sensitive market to seemingly low impact headlines that I can remember…
BREAKING: Stocks spike to session high after NY Fed President John Williams says the Fed could reevaluate its view in 2019 https://t.co/VO5GKms1AL pic.twitter.com/1Zrhcbqyxs
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) December 21, 2018
Covered Calls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls These would have been better yesterday, but couldn’t catch it.
Sold $SQ Dec 28th 58 calls for .75
Sold $TQQQ Dec 28th 39 calls for .85
It will be hilarious if I just sold at the bottom! Oh, how we will laugh.
SPX 1-dte
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Dec 21st 2355/2375-2550/2570 condors for 1.05.
VIX touches above 30…
…and we get a 30-point SPX bounce… is that what everyone was waiting for to buy?
Options Bistro 