#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 puts for 2.05 and 2.40. Still holding a few more. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.81. Smaller return that usual, but I’ll take it.
Working on $MPC exit. Also will not be as good as CMI was yesterday, but still a winner.
#SPX1dte $SPX Feb 6th 2710/2690 put spreads expiring worthless. Sold yesterday for 1.10.
#Earnings Bought to Open $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 #LongStraddle for 1.81. Need a 9.7% move, which is the 12-quarter average.
Bought to Open $MPC Feb08/Feb15 67.5 #DoubleCalendar for .65.
#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +9.73%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC +12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%
Avg (+ or -) 9.73%
Bias -2.27%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 18.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.45 to 20.05
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.47 to 20.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 14.78 to 21.72
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.43%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC -2.92%
Avg (+ or -) 7.70%
Bias -0.74%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 521.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.07 to 557.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 480.89 to 561.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 393.67 to 648.33
Open for requests on other symbols.
#VIXIndicator Because I’m becoming an Excel geek, I made a new chart measuring a performance metric for the Upside Warning. This shows the rise we have gotten from past Upside Warnings in relation to how much the SPX had already recovered before the Warning hit. For instance, the upper-left-most dot represents a 32.2% rise in SPX AFTER the UpW; the UpW hit after SPX had recovered only 26% of its drop (horizontal axis).
I drew the sloppy red line showing the general trend: the less we have recovered from the correction when the UpW hit, the higher we can expect the rise to be after the UpW. Although the red line shows a trend, you can see that most are clustered in the same general area.
And for comparison today, we had recovered 65.5% at the close yesterday, when the UpW hit. (high 2940, low 2351, 20% drop. Close yesterday was 2737, which means we regained 65.5% of the drop).
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close partial $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 dbl cal for 1.20. Waiting for price to move closer to my strike to close more. Bought yesterday for .65
#LongStraddle Sold to close partial $SNAP Feb 8th 7 calls for 1.75. Watching for a move higher. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.03.
#IronCondor Bought to close partial $DECK Feb 15th 105/110/145/150 condors for .50. Sold Thursday for .86.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 6th 2710/2690 put spreads for 1.10. Selling only a .12 delta put spread. no call spread for tomorrow. This is based on upside warning going into effect. It still carries higher risk, because while an Upside Warning is a pretty sure shot for a move higher, we could always take a dip or a drop first. But I think this is sufficiently OTM to withstand a pullback, if one comes tomorrow.
#Earnings Bought to Open $SNAP Feb 8th 7 #LongStraddle for 1.03 (partial fill so far, may need to go to 1.04).
#VIXIndicator Here’s the version of the past results I posted back in May. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN of the preceding correction, and the date of the Upside Warning. Please ask any questions you have! (you can click on the chart to see it full screen).
As you can see, the Upside Warning is pretty reliable for at least a couple percentage points higher.
#Earnings Bought to Open $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 #DoubleCalendar for .65. (filled at .63 on TOS)
#Earnings — This one is a good double calendar candidate because it is cheap to buy. Premium for this Friday is not much lower than premium for next Friday. That gives us a pretty good range of profit; a range almost as wide as the max moves.
$CMI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO +7.62% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias 0.50%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 148.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.54 to 155.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.36 to 154.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.6%): 137.46 to 160.14
#SPXcampaign This is based solely on the Upside Warning we will get at today’s close, barring a disaster.
Sold $SPX Feb 20th 2725/2700 put spreads for 8.40.
I’m not selling any call spreads, and I’ll probably buy one. I’m not yet sure about tomorrow’s #SPX1dte. Not seeing much premium.
#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP (the only UP)
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 19.51%
Bias -5.92%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 6.82 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 5.75 to 7.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 5.49 to 8.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 3.58 to 10.06
Cost of a straddle is about 1.10. The AVG move has been 1.38. Nice low risk straddle candidate.
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO +4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.36%
Bias 0.87%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 425.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 403.84 to 446.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 410.73 to 439.27
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 395.29 to 454.71
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $DATA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 6, 2018 AC +15.35% Biggest UP
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -6.64%
May 2, 2018 AC +6.58%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +8.97%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -9.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +9.02%
May 3, 2017 AC +6.12%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC +14.66%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -12.11%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC -5.67%
May 5, 2016 AC -11.31%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -49.44% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 12.92%
Bias -2.81%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 119.66 to 144.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 114.94 to 149.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (49.4%): 66.74 to 197.26
Open for requests on other symbols.
#VIXIndicator one more day with a $VIX close below 16.47 and we have an Upside Warning. I think today’s action foretells we are headed that way.
#SPX1dte My third attempt at a long condor is the first losing one. Looks like the Feb 4th one will expire worthless. We’ll see how things play out through tomorrow if an Upside Warning hits, and proceed accordingly for the Feb 6th expiry.
I also backed out of this roll trade with a profit, as it could get steamrolled on the call side. I’ll look to sell a put spread to replace it.
BTC $SPX Feb 14th (monthly) 2600/2620/2760/2780 #CondorRoll for 3.95. Sold for 6.05 last Wednesday.
#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Thu 10/25/2018 AC -4.90%
Mon 07/23/2018 AC +3.46%
Mon 04/23/2018 AC -3.94%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -8.22%
Thu 10/26/2017 AC +4.20%
Mon 07/24/2017 AC -4.00%
Thu 04/27/2017 AC +5.12% Biggest UP
Thu 01/26/2017 AC -4.29%
Thu 10/27/2016 AC -1.45%
Thu 07/28/2016 AC +4.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC -7.00%
Mon 02/01/2016 AC -8.69% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 4.98%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1082.60 to 1187.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1078.50 to 1191.50
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 1036.37 to 1233.63
Open for requests on other symbols.
#VIXIndicator Today’s $VIX close ends the 4-month Downside Warning. If we get two more closes at or below 16.47, it will trigger an Upside Warning, which usually means a strong rally for a few days or weeks.
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Feb 4th 2645/2660-2740/2755 condors for .55. (IV 7.94%: SPX 2704)
I reduced to 15-wide to make it cheaper, and also went to the strike below .06 on each side. This lowers probability, but short strikes are only 80 apart, which is the lowest I have had on any condor in this strategy, long or short.
#SPX1dte My short condor from yesterday will expire worthless (sold for 1.00)
I am going to BUY the condor for Monday, since volatility on the options chain plummeted to below 9%, after being above 15% all week. (today would have been a good day to sell a condor in the morning, and close it by day’s end)
#Earnings BTC $AMZN Feb 1st 1600/1590 put spreads for .25. Not going to mess with this one if it decides to get cute. Condors sold yesterday for 2.00.
**Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday at 7pm ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=4&month=2&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 dbl cals for 3.25 (avg price). Bought yesterday for 1.57.
#IronButterfly $NOW expiring at max loss of .65.
#IronCondor $AMZN expiring at full profit, sold yesterday for 2.00.
#LongStraddle $EBAY straddle bought for 2.23 on Tuesday. It had a subtle move, so I played the swings and managed to sell for 1.168. Even when long straddles miss, they aren’t too bad provided you have a few days and some swings.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #CoveredCalls #Dividends
Lat week’s double cal didn’t work but I stuck with the trade, selling the long put and taking assignment, cost basis of 47.34.
Today I lightened the load, selling slightly less than half of the stock for 49.00.
I’m converting the rest into a #PieTrade, so I sold to Open $INTC March 15th 50 covered calls for 1.01.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar For 2nd quarter in a row, $EW is killing it on this strategy. The long options (Feb 8th) retain a lot of value, but because stock price is so close to my 170 strike, I was able to exit partial for 4.30 near the open. Now waiting for even a better price as the Feb 1st short options decay.
$MRK was the loser…. Sold to close $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 dbl cals for .30. bought yesterday for .47
Working on the $HON exit. Looks like I’ll be able to get a slight profit.
#Earnings #Iron Condor This one is close to full loss, but I closed the call side for 4.50, a discount from what is likely to be an expiration of 5.00. Sold the condors for 1.75. Closed the $BA Feb 1st 380/385 call spreads for 4.50. Fortunately, earnings wins from this week will easily exceed this loss!
#ContangoETFs Yesterday, Sold $NUGT Sept 35 calls for 2.06. First time back in NUGT in a long time, and currently my only ContangoETF position.
#Jobs Much higher than expected, again. December revised lower.
+304,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 170K expected
Unemployment at 4.0%, up 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 8.1%, up 0.5%
Wages up 0.1%, 3.2% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, up by 0.1
December revised down from 312K to 222K
November revised up from 176K to 196K
#VIXIndicator We closed with $VIX only 0.10 above the cancelation level of the Downside Warning, which has been in effect since October 5th. If bears are going to show up, they better do it soon.
Bought $HON Feb01/Feb08 144 for .85
Bought $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 for .47
Bought $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 for 1.57
#Earnoings #IronCondor Sold to Open $DECK Feb 1st 105/110/145/150 iron condors for .85
#Earnings #IronCondor Sold to Open $AMZN Feb 1st 1590/1600-1870/1880 iron condors for 2.00.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 1st 2630/2650-2745/2765 iron condors for 1.00. (IV 15.35%; SPX 2703)
#Earnings $DECK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +6.18%
July 26, 2018 AC -6.87%
May 24, 2018 AC +3.54%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.30%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +3.32%
July 27, 2017 AC +1.59%
May 25, 2017 AC +18.80% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -16.06% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +7.11%
July 28, 2016 AC +4.06%
May 26, 2016 AC +7.99%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -1.96%
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias 2.92%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.87 to 138.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 116.63 to 134.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 101.91 to 149.09
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar These stocks all have fairly muted historical moves but decent IV elevation for earnings: $CI, $CVX, $HON, $MRK. Also, $EW was my biggest winner in this strategy last quarter. It opened nearly flat and allowed for perfect exit. Then the stock dropped 5%. So its moves are a bit large for a calendar but it worked out, so I may try again.
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC +8.33%
Avg (+ or -) 6.81%
Bias -1.98%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 161.14 to 178.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 158.42 to 181.58
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 140.95 to 199.05
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC +9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60%
Avg (+ or -) 4.82%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 1732.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1639.50 to 1824.50
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1648.52 to 1815.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1503.20 to 1960.80
Open for requests on other symbols.
#SPX1dte Closed both shorts for .05 each. Looks good to expire but this clears needed margin from smaller accounts. $SPX Jan 31st 2615/2635/2735/2755 condors sold yesterday for 1.00
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 31st 2615/2635-2735/2755 iron condors for 1.00. (IV 16%)
I hated doing this because I feel the rally today is a headfake, but I cannot fight the tape any higher than this.
Bought to close $SPX Feb 14th 2730/2750 call spreads for 5.75. Sold in a #CondorRoll on Jan 4th.
#CondorRoll Sold to Open Feb 14th 2600/2620/2760/2780 condors for 6.05.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Filled on the Fed spike: Sold $TQQQ Feb 15th 44 calls for 2.45
#SPX1dte bought to close $SPX Jan 30th 2685 calls for .85. Condors sold for 1.00 yesterday. Could not hold through the FOMC release that comes out in 40 minutes. I don’t expect a move like last time, when we exploded higher, but can’t risk it. Also sold a couple the long 2705 calls for .05, and will try to sell them all to reduce cost of the exit. Allowing puts to expire.
Don’t know whether I’ll buy or sell the condor for Jan 31st expiration yet!
#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC +4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC +5.31%
April 21, 2016 AC -7.17% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 28, 2016 AC +5.82%
Avg (+ or -) 3.51%
Bias 2.09%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 105.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 101.22 to 110.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 102.18 to 109.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.2%): 98.31 to 113.49
Open for requests on other symbols.
Sold to open $NOW Feb 1st 185/190/195 iron butterflys for 4.35. Max risk .65. As I reported below, this one has been more of a minor mover in recent years, so seeing if it can maintain its calm. If not, max loss is tolerable.
#LongStraddle #Earnings
Sold to Close final batch of $GLW Feb 1st 30 calls for 3.27. Netted about 60% profit (bought for 1.92 on Monday).
Sold to close some of the $EBAY Feb 1st 33.5 puts for .61. Straddles bought yesterday for 2.23. This one will be tough to breakeven, unless we get a rally over next couple days.
#Earnings $CRUS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +3.10%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -7.01%
May 2, 2018 AC -1.53%
Feb. 5, 2018 AC -3.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -0.42%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -6.89%
May 3, 2017 AC +0.10%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -14.00% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +6.85%
July 27, 2016 AC +19.27% Biggest UP
April 26, 2016 AC +12.38%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +16.38%
Avg (+ or -) 7.60%
Bias 2.08%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 35.03 to 40.97
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 35.11 to 40.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.3%): 30.68 to 45.32
Open for requests on other symbols.
#CoveredCalls #LongStock Sold to Open $PVTL Feb 15th 18 calls for .75
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74%
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
April 20, 2016 AC +14.06% Biggest UP
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -15.65% Biggest DOWN (the only DOWN)
Avg (+ or -) 5.38%
Bias 2.77%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 189.90 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.65 to 202.15
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 179.69 to 200.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.7%): 160.18 to 219.62
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $WYNN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -13.13% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -6.53%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.74%
Jan. 22, 2018 BO +8.67%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -1.50%
July 25, 2017 AC -5.02%
April 25, 2017 AC +5.89%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +7.93%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -9.31%
July 28, 2016 AC -6.41%
May 5, 2016 AC +1.77%
Feb. 11, 2016 AC +15.83% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.14%
Bias -0.46%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 117.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 109.04 to 125.96
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 109.11 to 125.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.8%): 98.90 to 136.10
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC +7.19%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC +15.52% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.01%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 146.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.11 to 155.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 137.22 to 154.78
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 118.32 to 173.68
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Market Reminders for tomorrow:
GDP numbers at 8:30am ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2pm ET
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 30th 2565/2585/2685/2705 iron condors for 1.00
I switched back to selling because IV on this chain is over 16% and HV dipped below IV.
#Earnings $EBAY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bought $EBAY Feb 1st 33.5 straddle for 2.23.
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +5.87%
July 18, 2018 AC -10.11%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.58%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -1.79%
July 20, 2017 AC -1.53%
April 19, 2017 AC -3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +4.99%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -10.76%
July 20, 2016 AC +10.89%
April 26, 2016 AC +3.18%
Jan. 27, 2016 AC -12.45% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias -0.62%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 33.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 31.39 to 35.81
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 31.46 to 36.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 29.17 to 38.53
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings Sold to Open $BA Feb 1st 345/350/380/385 #IronCondor for 1.78. About 3.8% on downside and 4.5% on upside.
#Earnings $BA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 BO +1.31%
July 25, 2018 BO -0.65%
April 25, 2018 BO +4.19%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +4.93%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO -2.84%
July 26, 2017 BO +9.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2017 BO -0.98%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO +4.24%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO +4.68%
July 27, 2016 BO +0.82%
April 27, 2016 BO +2.88%
Jan. 27, 2016 BO -8.92% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 1.63%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 365.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 350.40 t0 380.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 351.39 to 379.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.9%): 329.43 to 401.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $TSLA reports Wednesday night. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +4.73%
Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias 0.19%, no significant directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 295.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 263.33 to 326.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 276.11 to 313.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 247.27 to 342.73
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 3-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday. These moves are bigger than 1-day moves. This stock can move BIG.
Wed 10/24/2018 AC -22.64%
Wed 07/25/2018 AC +18.01%
Wed 04/25/2018 AC +14.42%
Tue 01/30/2018 AC -3.26%
Tue 10/24/2017 AC -16.91%
Tue 07/25/2017 AC -1.13%
Mon 05/01/2017 AC -25.84% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +18.03%
Thu 10/20/2016 AC -6.32%
Thu 07/21/2016 AC +11.87%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC +52.29% Biggest UP
Tue 01/19/2016 AC +3.58%
Avg (+ or -) 16.19%
Bias 3.51%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 19.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 17.19 to 22.01
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.43 to 22.77
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (52.3%): 9.35 to 29.85
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $GLW Feb 1st 30 calls for 3.10. Straddles bought for 1.92 yesterday. I closed two-thirds of my position. Holding the rest for potentially higher prices into Friday.
#Earnings $BABA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: One-day moves are listed, but I included the extremes for 3-day moves as well. As you can see, big moves were followed by continuation for the three days following earnings.
*****NOTE #2: the EXPECTED move (per TOS) is higher than the Maximum 1-day historical moves. A bigger than usual move is expected, which could just mean options are overpriced. Note, however, that the three-day moves exceed the expected.
Nov. 2, 2018 BO -2.41%
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -3.15%
May 4, 2018 BO +3.52%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO -5.90% Biggest DOWN — 3-day = -8.31%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.68%
Aug. 17, 2017 BO +2.77%
May 18, 2017 BO +0.45%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO -2.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +5.08% Biggest UP — 3-day = +12.5%
May 5, 2016 BO +3.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO -3.76%
Avg (+ or -) 3.11%
Bias 0.03%, no directional bias on earnings.
With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 146.67 to 167.33
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 152.11 to 161.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.9%): 147.74 to 166.26
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 3-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday. These moves are slightly bigger than 1-day moves.
Thu 11/01/2018 AC -6.63%
Tue 07/31/2018 AC +9.30% Biggest UP
Tue 05/01/2018 AC +8.71%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -4.34%
Thu 11/02/2017 AC +2.61%
Tue 08/01/2017 AC +4.22%
Tue 05/02/2017 AC +0.98%
Tue 01/31/2017 AC +6.37%
Tue 10/25/2016 AC -3.83%
Tue 07/26/2016 AC +7.79%
Tue 04/26/2016 AC -10.16% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/26/2016 AC -2.65%
Avg (+ or -) 5.63%
Bias 1.03%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 157.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 148.24 to 165.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 148.16 to 165.84
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.2%): 141.05 to 172.95
Open for requests on other symbols.
But #VXXGame lives on.
The big short volatility edition:
10 year ago $VXX was introduced.
Tomorrow $VXX dies.
Every long died along the way. pic.twitter.com/FZpH7RUbKf— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) January 29, 2019
#Earnings Bought to open $GLW Feb 1st 30 straddle for 1.92. I only need around the average move on this to be profitable.
#SPX1dte closed last batch for .35. Definitely missed my chances for higher profit, but still another win. It will be interesting to see how this will work on a flat day. It will be a losing trade, but will be able to recoup some of the debit in the morning as put premium is usually still hanging on.
Condors bought Friday for .70. Sold today for 1.20, avg price.
#Earnings $GLW reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday.
Tue 10/23/2018 BO -0.45%
Wed 07/25/2018 BO +12.44% Biggest UP
Tue 04/24/2018 BO -0.99%
Tue 01/30/2018 BO -8.68%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO +5.01%
Wed 07/26/2017 BO -8.96%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO +4.83%
Tue 01/24/2017 BO +7.71%
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -5.06%
Wed 07/27/2016 BO +2.34%
Tue 04/26/2016 BO -10.96% Biggest DOWN
Tue 01/26/2016 BO +11.03%
Avg (+ or -) 6.54%
Bias 0.69%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 30.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 28.33 to 32.27
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.32 to 32.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 26.53 to 34.07
Open for requests on other symbols.
#Earnings $BIIB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
***NOTE: These are 5-day moves, since options traded for earnings will expire on Friday.
Tue 10/23/2018 BO -4.87%
Tue 07/24/2018 BO -4.95%
Tue 04/24/2018 BO +6.75%
Thu 01/25/2018 BO +3.46%
Tue 10/24/2017 BO -6.33% Biggest DOWN
Tue 07/25/2017 BO +0.96%
Tue 04/25/2017 BO -2.04%
Thu 01/26/2017 BO +1.03%
Wed 10/26/2016 AC -5.49%
Thu 07/21/2016 BO +9.50% Biggest UP
Thu 04/21/2016 BO +7.13%
Wed 01/27/2016 BO +5.07%
Avg (+ or -) 4.80%
Bias 0.85%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 333.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 316.16 to 349.84
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 317.02 to 348.98
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 301.37 to 364.64
Open for requests on other symbols.
#SPX1dte Sold a third of the $SPX Jan 28th 2620/2600 put spreads for 2.00. Condors bought for .70 on Friday.
#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX Jan 28th 2600/2620-2700/2720 iron condors for .70.
Filled after bell, Jan28th IV only 8.7%; expected move 18.77. HV still above IV, but dropping. ATR 43.35.
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar #LongStock #Assignment #Dividends
Sold to close $INTC Feb 1st 50 put for 3.20. Will be assigned long stock for 50.00. Add .54 for calendar purchase, subtract 3.20 from put sale, cost basis 47.34.
Will sell calls and hang on to stock for at least one dividend round.
#SPX1dte Was hoping gov’t reopening might give us a final spike, but the spike was in the wrong direction.
Closed last batch of $SPX call spreads for 1.00. Bought for .70, closed for 1.62 avg price.
Trump scheduled to speak soon, expected to announce a deal to (at least temporarily) re-open government.
BIG WEEK:
*GDP Wednesday at 8:30am ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement, Wednesday 2pm ET
*January Jobs Report, Friday 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=28&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings A few that were added late and just updated on the chart:
ILMN and AMD next Tuesday, Jan 29th, after market.
TSLA next Wednesday, Jan 30th, after market.
