MAT earnings analysis

#Earnings $MAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC -2.81%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.17%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.35%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.89%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.91%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.79%
April 20, 2017 AC -13.56%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -17.64% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +6.00%
July 20, 2016 AC -0.30%
April 20, 2016 AC -5.78%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC +13.82% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 7.50%
Bias -2.66%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 12.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 11.04 to 13.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 11.38 to 13.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 10.13 to 14.47

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