SPX 1-dte IC

Sold layers of SPX Feb8 BuPS x6 and BeCS x4 at different strikes for total credit of $412. So far, so good. I’ll let you know how it turns out tomorrow.
#spx1-dte

TQQQ

#CoveredCalls – I did a trade! Woohoo! Have to say I don’t hate the pullback. Helps out some of the ITM positions.

Rolled TQQQ FEB 15 2019 44.0 Call to MAR 1 2019 45.0 Call @ .21 credit

Adding 1.21 of upside while still keeping a little more downside help.

SPX 1 die

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 8th 2630/2655-2730/2755 condors for .90 (IV: 12.8%, SPX 2697)

#shortcallspreads TSLA yesterday sold 350/360…

#shortcallspreads TSLA

yesterday sold 350/360 call spread for 1.02, bought today for .40 on the $10 move down.

#assignment NTGR Back in July…

#assignment NTGR

Back in July I sold a Dec. NTGR 55 put, rolled it to January, then February, then March. It had become an NS option. I was assigned and also received 198 shares of ARLO, a spin-off. I was assigned at 41.25, even though it was a 55 put. ARLO is going for 3.83, but TDA says I was assigned at 6.93. I’m down about $500 on the two positions. Always something new.

#earnings MAT Sold March 15,…

#earnings MAT

Sold March 15, 13 straddle for 1.92.

Closing UPS

Bought to close $UPS Jul 19 75 puts @ .37-.38. Sold for 1.35 on 12/13. Taking the 70%+ off the table with over 5 months to go.

MAT earnings analysis

#Earnings $MAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC -2.81%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.17%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.35%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.89%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.91%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.79%
April 20, 2017 AC -13.56%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -17.64% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +6.00%
July 20, 2016 AC -0.30%
April 20, 2016 AC -5.78%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC +13.82% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 7.50%
Bias -2.66%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 12.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 11.04 to 13.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 11.38 to 13.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 10.13 to 14.47

Open for requests on other symbols.

Defending ICs

@hcgdavis is so good to recap his trading strats and share lessons learned. I’m going to try to follow his example here.

Over the last six weeks or so, I’ve traded multiple SPY/SPX ICs using different time frames. It’s a given that defense is absolutely necessary to survive. However, defending too early robs you of potential profits more often than not. Although it will be more expensive, I’ve decided not to defend ICs anymore unless the short strikes are breached. Expensive defense 10% of the time is cheaper than inexpensive defense 40% of the time. If you’re selling spreads outside 1sd, most of them are going to be safe.
#IC_Defense

#spycraft

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +3.93%

Avg (+ or -) 15.26%
Bias 0.23%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.69 to 31.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.30 to 31.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 16.10 to 38.90

Open for requests on other symbols.

#longstraddle