Sold layers of SPX Feb8 BuPS x6 and BeCS x4 at different strikes for total credit of $412. So far, so good. I’ll let you know how it turns out tomorrow.
#spx1-dte
Daily Archives: Thursday, February 7, 2019
TQQQ
#CoveredCalls – I did a trade! Woohoo! Have to say I don’t hate the pullback. Helps out some of the ITM positions.
Rolled TQQQ FEB 15 2019 44.0 Call to MAR 1 2019 45.0 Call @ .21 credit
Adding 1.21 of upside while still keeping a little more downside help.
SPX 1 die
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 8th 2630/2655-2730/2755 condors for .90 (IV: 12.8%, SPX 2697)
#shortcallspreads TSLA yesterday sold 350/360…
#shortcallspreads TSLA
yesterday sold 350/360 call spread for 1.02, bought today for .40 on the $10 move down.
#assignment NTGR Back in July…
#assignment NTGR
Back in July I sold a Dec. NTGR 55 put, rolled it to January, then February, then March. It had become an NS option. I was assigned and also received 198 shares of ARLO, a spin-off. I was assigned at 41.25, even though it was a 55 put. ARLO is going for 3.83, but TDA says I was assigned at 6.93. I’m down about $500 on the two positions. Always something new.
#earnings MAT Sold March 15,…
#earnings MAT
Sold March 15, 13 straddle for 1.92.
Closing UPS
Bought to close $UPS Jul 19 75 puts @ .37-.38. Sold for 1.35 on 12/13. Taking the 70%+ off the table with over 5 months to go.
MAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $MAT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -2.81%
July 25, 2018 AC -4.17%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.35%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.89%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.91%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.79%
April 20, 2017 AC -13.56%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -17.64% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +6.00%
July 20, 2016 AC -0.30%
April 20, 2016 AC -5.78%
Feb. 1, 2016 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.50%
Bias -2.66%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 12.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 11.04 to 13.56
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 11.38 to 13.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.6%): 10.13 to 14.47
Open for requests on other symbols.
Defending ICs
@hcgdavis is so good to recap his trading strats and share lessons learned. I’m going to try to follow his example here.
Over the last six weeks or so, I’ve traded multiple SPY/SPX ICs using different time frames. It’s a given that defense is absolutely necessary to survive. However, defending too early robs you of potential profits more often than not. Although it will be more expensive, I’ve decided not to defend ICs anymore unless the short strikes are breached. Expensive defense 10% of the time is cheaper than inexpensive defense 40% of the time. If you’re selling spreads outside 1sd, most of them are going to be safe.
#IC_Defense
SKX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +3.93%
Avg (+ or -) 15.26%
Bias 0.23%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.69 to 31.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.30 to 31.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 16.10 to 38.90
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings SKX Jeff-can you show…
#earnings SKX MAT
Jeff-can you show data for SKX and MAT, volatility seems high on both? Thanks
Expirations, rolls, etc.
#fuzzy
EXPE have the 120/120 and 125/126 expiring tomorrow. Cost basis 9.43. It is really holding onto the time value, I have over 5k of theta decay on this position alone. Should crush with earnings tonight and either way it swings this trade is up huge and will close all of it tomorrow then reset. One of my biggest winning trades so far, especially from a recovery standpoint. Down a lot earlier this year, up 17k+ now 🙂
GILD 70/70 adjusted earlier this week. Cb 8.00, I miscalculated below.
XBI 80/80 rolled out to next week for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.13
LNG 50/60 cb 13.26, adjusts next week
GILD 67.5/69 rolled another week for 0.41 credit. cb 7.19
Some of these trades should be scratched in another 2-3 months, I hope, then have pure income.
#pietrades and #lizardpies
SQ 68 put rolled up to next week 70 for 1.11 credit. Cb 68.89 if assigned but will be out before earnings.
EOG 98.5 rolled out 15 DTE for 0.67 and 0.3 credits. Cb 96.78 and 97.1 Tradestation having issues with option station pro. However, if you call them they will not charge you for the broker assisted trade.
TQQQ 51 cc cb 57.04. Will roll aggressively
TQQQ 51 cc cb 57.10 same
FAS 56 cc rolled out 1 week and up to 56.5 for 0.13 credit. cb 54.64
Hope everyone has a good expiration, volatility back today I assume because of the idiots in DC comments on the trade wars.
NEWS
White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Thursday that the administration is hoping for a trade agreement with China but much work remains before anything is finalized.
“The president has indicated that he’s optimistic with respect to a potential trade deal,” Kudlow said on Fox Business. “But we’ve got a pretty sizable distance to go here.”
The comments coincided with a sharp drop in the stock market that sent the Dow industrials down more than 200 points as Wall Street waits to see whether Washington and Beijing can meet a March 2 deadline, after which tariffs both sides have levied could go back into effect.
#earnings TWTR Sold March 15…
#earnings TWTR
Sold March 15 28/42 strangle for 1.16, closed today for .77
FEYE and MPC closed
#Earnings Sold to close final $FEYE puts for 2.27.
Sold to close $MPC Feb08/Feb15 #DoubleCalendar for .85. Bought yesterday for .65
EXPE earnings analysis
#Earnings $EXPE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +2.49%
July 26, 2018 AC +9.53%
April 26, 2018 AC +8.19%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC -15.46%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -15.98% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 AC +3.40%
April 27, 2017 AC -1.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -0.48%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +4.12%
July 28, 2016 AC -2.19%
April 28, 2016 AC +8.20%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC +9.56% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 6.79%
Bias 0.80%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 127.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 118.87 to 136.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 118.85 to 135.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 107.13 to 147.87
Open for requests on other symbols.
Adding to SPY
Bought some more $SPY March 8th 277.5 calls for 1.44, adding to what started yesterday. This pullback makes me worry about Upside Warning coming through, but not throwing in the towel unless it is sustained. Pullbacks have been known to happen after the Warning fires… threw me off in Sept 2017, and then got my face ripped off to the upside.
FEYE earnings
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 puts for 2.05 and 2.40. Still holding a few more. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.81. Smaller return that usual, but I’ll take it.
Working on $MPC exit. Also will not be as good as CMI was yesterday, but still a winner.
Options Bistro 