Update on MU

Apparently, as the kids like to say, my maths wasn’t working yesterday.

When I rolled the adjusted position (from Mar 41.50/42 strangle to Apr 40/46 strangle), I hadn’t calculated that I already had a small profit in the position. At that point I wouldn’t normally have rolled since that would have been a defensive move. Should have just closed it out yesterday. Got a few cents more profit today so I decided to close the whole thing out.

Bought to close $MU 4/18 40/46 strangle @ 3.53. Total premium taken in with rolls/adjustments was 3.91, so a .38 overall profit.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2735/2755-2820/2835 condors for 1.10. (IV: 10.67%, SPX 2796)

#earnings GS Took a beating…

#earnings GS
Took a beating on this one. Jan. 15, sold a Feb. 15, 155/175/180/200 IC. rolled to March as GS stayed up. It goes ex-div tomorrow, don’t want to be short 100 shares at 180 with the stock at 200, and have to pay the .80 dividend, negative $836 on everything.

CAT put spread

$CAT gapped down this morning after the downgrade but some buying has come in. Stock has been in an uptrend with higher lows all year. Sold $CAT Apr 18 130/120 BuPS for 1.62.

BIDU

#ShortPuts #IRA – I was looking at May 140-145 but decided to go more aggressively in April and keep the sale prior to next earnings. Nice having the roll/covered call possibility with the extra earnings premium.

Sold BIDU APR 18 2019 150.0 Put @ 2.87

Stepping into Macy’s

Looking at recent support holding after the positive reaction to earnings. Sold $M Apr 18 23 puts @ .72.

PANW earnings analysis

#Earnings — $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
May 26, 2016 AC -12.36%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC +5.20%

Avg (+ or -) 8.54%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 233.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 217.69 to 248.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 213.09 to 252.91
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 176.73 to 289.27

Open to requests for other symbols.

EOG earnings analysis

#Earnings — $EOG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 2, 2018 BO -4.24%
Aug. 3, 2018 BO -2.79%
May 3, 2018 AC -1.16%
Feb. 28, 2018 BO -5.16% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 3, 2017 BO +1.50%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO -2.26%
May 8, 2017 AC -0.05%
Feb. 27, 2017 AC -0.93%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -0.30%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +7.02% Biggest UP
May 5, 2016 AC -3.17%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC -1.45%

Avg (+ or -) 2.50%
Bias -1.08%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 94.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 90.14 to 98.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 92.14 to 96.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 87.87 to 101.13

Open to requests for other symbols.

#coveredcallcampaign AA Rolled March 15…

#coveredcallcampaign AA

Rolled March 15 30 call to April 18, 30 call for .93 bringing cost basis down to 32.09, assigned at 38, stock currently at 30.