Closed Early $SPX JPM SAVE EA / Short Puts HIIQ SFLY

Closed Early
$SPX BTC 2/11/2745/2730 BECS at .05. STO today at .85 Thank you @jeffcp66
$JPM BTC 2/15 90/100/110/100 IC at 2.30 STO 1/14 for 5.14 Thank you @thomberg1201 for the earnings trade
$SAVE STC 2/15 BUCS at 4.20 BTO on 1/29 for 1.90
$EA BTC 3/15 75 puts at .10. STO on 2/7 for 1.68 after their earnings announcement (poorly received initially).
Thanks to @ramie77

#shortputs
$HIIQ STO 2/15 38 put at 1.40. Thank you @honkhonk81
$SFLY STO 3/15 45 put at 2.05. Hope this is picture perfect.

WTW

#LongCalls #LEAPS – Just got in and see one fill today…

Bought to Close WTW FEB 22 2019 37.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .65)

SPY 21dte IC petri dish

After selling an eight-rung ladder of SPY ICs, 21 dte, 16delta both sides, starting with Feb8 expiration, one IC has closed with $38 in profits. I’m confident that with proper management, the spycraft strategy has edge and a positive expectancy over time. However, it doesn’t jive with my trading style. There are lots of positions to manage and then at best a small profit. I could sell 10x or 20x instead of 2x but I’d rather trade SPX than do that.

After my SPY Mar1 spreads expire, I’m going to move on. I may come back but for now, there are other strategies that keep me more engaged; hence better profits. I will report back here on total profits when the last spreads close.

#spycraft

Earnings trades today

#Earnings

Bought $UAA Feb 15th 21 #LongStraddle for 2.50. Need a 11.9% move. Average has been 16.1%.

Bought $TAP Feb15/Feb22 65 #DoubleCalendar for .34. Super cheap!

Looking at a calendar for $SHOP, also cheap.

#pietrades STO the ALXN 2/15…

#pietrades

STO the ALXN 2/15 118 put for 0.85 credit. Could probably get more now. 117.15 cost basis if assigned but more likely will roll.

#shortcallspreads TSLA Sold March 15,…

#shortcallspreads TSLA

Sold March 15, 365/375 for .93. Stock currently up 8.55 to 314.

UAA earnings analysis

#Earnings — $UAA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters. NOTE: symbol UAA only lists history starting 1/31/17. The data before that date is for symbol $UA (below the line).

Tue 10/30/2018 BO +30.29% Biggest UP
Thu 07/26/2018 BO -4.60%
Tue 05/01/2018 BO -2.25%
Tue 02/13/2018 BO +22.00%
Tue 10/31/2017 BO -29.25% Biggest DOWN
Tue 08/01/2017 BO -8.14%
Thu 04/27/2017 BO +7.40%
Tue 01/31/2017 BO -28.47%
——————————
Tue 10/25/2016 BO -21.24%
Tue 07/26/2016 BO -9.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 BO +6.00%
Thu 01/28/2016 BO +24.13%

Avg (+ or -) 16.10%
Bias -1.13%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 21.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.26 to 23.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 17.62 to 24.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.3%): 14.64 to 27.36

#longstraddle

SPX 1-dte IC

Closed Feb11 put spreads (8) and call spreads (4) spreads for .05 each. Total credit $450. Total profit $390.
#spx1-dte

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Feb 11th 2730 calls for .20. Stop level breached earlier.

TRADES:

CRON STO 21.5 CALLS @.90 Covered
CRON STO 2/15 19.0/14.0 BuPS @.80

TAP earnings analysis

#Earnings — $TAP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day range was roughly the same)

Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO +1.44%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.05%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.59%
Feb. 11, 2016 BO -0.65%

Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 1.17%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 65.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 60.77 to 69.23
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 62.49 to 67.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 54.99 to 75.01

Closing FB Mar #Falling Knife…

Closing FB Mar #Falling Knife
Bought to close $FB Mar 15 110 puts @ .01. Sold for 1.17 on 11/8.

Closing EA

Bought to close $EA Mar 15 75 puts @ .15. Sold for 1.41 on 2/6.

SHOP earnings analysis

#Earnings — $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves were similar, with a smaller range, meaning extreme 1-day moves are typically faded over the following days)

Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
May 4, 2016 BO -3.67%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO +9.12%

Avg (+ or -) 6.92%
Bias 2.96%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 177.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.33 to 194.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 164.74 to 189.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 155.71 to 198.29