Daily Archives: Monday, February 25, 2019

geewhiz112 9:25 pm on Monday, February 25, 2019
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Covered Call / LABU / ETSY / TNDM

#coveredcalls
$LABU STO 3/1 60 call at 1.75. Sold after the big surge up today. Not sure if it will hold. If I get called away basis is 47 and I am happy camper. If it goes up to 100 next week still a happy camper, just not the happiest camper.

$ETSY STO 3/15 65 calls at 2.35. Part covered, part naked. Naked more exciting. Earlier in day sold some of stock.
$TNDM STO 3/1 50 calls at 2.65 They report soon and I have too large a position. If taken away I am fine. If not I will sell calls again.

fuzzballl 9:09 pm on Monday, February 25, 2019
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UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – One late fill…

Sold UVXY MAR 22 2019 55.0 Calls @ 1.10

fuzzballl 10:48 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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LABU

#CoveredCalls – Rolling one out and up…

Rolled LABU MAR 08 2019 52.0 Call to MAR 29 2019 54.0 Call @ .15 credit

Ramie 10:43 am on Monday, February 25, 2019  

Rolling MU strangle

Rolled $MU Mar 15 41.50/42 strangle out to Apr 18 40/46 strangle for .35 credit.
History so far:
1/29: March 33/42 strangle sold for 1.92 credit
2/6: Rolled 33 puts up to 39 puts, staying in March, for 1.00 credit
2/20: Rolled 39 puts up to 41.50 puts, staying in March, for .64 credit
2/25: Rolled March 41.50/42 strangle out to April 40/46 for .35, widening from 1/2 point to 6 points with the deltas (put/call) at 31 and 38. The fact that earnings come between March and April expiration allowed me to make this roll.

Now I’m just looking for this thing to slow down a bit. Total credit taken in 3.91 so my breakevens are now 36.09 and 49.91, a pretty wide range for the stock to bounce around between now and earnings at which point I’ll have hopefully closed the position for a profit.

Jeff 10:29 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte As a roll from the stopped spread today: Sold $SPX March 1st 2715/2740/2845/2870 condors for 2.40. If possible I will close with 60% of profit a day or two early. (.10 delta, 12.5% IV, SpX 2801)

honkhonk81 9:42 am on Monday, February 25, 2019  

TRADES: Some delayed.

SLDB STC STOCK 10.26 A gift.
PYX BTO STOCK @25.33
NIO BTO STOCK @9.03

thomberg1201 9:20 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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#earnings #jadelizard M Sold March…

#earnings #jadelizard M

Sold March 15, 22(put)/25/25.50 for .73, stock at 24.60, recent low of 23.95. I have 100 assigned shares from a while ago. Thanks for the data Jeff.

MamaCash 9:16 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
Tags: UpW   

Upside warning trades

Closed most of my IWM, QQQ, and SPY calls for doubles and triples. Opened on Feb 5. Still holding one lot each.

Rolled my TNA, TQQQ, and TNA stock replacement structures (SRS) back down to 85delta long/35 delta short. This is the fourth roll down on TNA. Locked in a profit with no risk on current position. UPRO needs one more roll. TQQQ a little slower but more than 50% covered.
#UpW

MamaCash 9:12 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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SPX IC

Starting up my short-term SPX ICs again.
STO SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @.35 x2 based on hitting resistance in 2810 area today.
STO SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @.25 x2 based on well-defined price range box
STO SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .25 x2

BTC SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @ .05 x2. STO @ .35 x2. $60 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .35 x4. $120 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
Total profit $280
#spx1dte

Jeff 8:13 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Feb 25th 2815 calls for 2.75. Holding the longs to sell if we go higher.

This is my first loss on a short 1-dte since Jan 22nd. And again, losses are about 1x-3x the wins, so not difficult to make up.

jsd501 8:11 am on Monday, February 25, 2019  

LABU

Rolled March 65 calls to June 21, 70 calls for a credit of 2.90,trying to stay ahead of this rally.

fuzzballl 8:07 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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UVXY

#ShortCalls -This was a naked short call that went ITM in December. Rolled it way out and up slightly. Finally closing it for a profit. Can now move the call sales back to nearer term (if we ever get any more volatility)…

Bought to Close UVXY JUN 21 2019 57.0 Call @ 3.75 (sold for 4.00)

Addy 8:04 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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#spxcampaign STO 1 MAR 2019…

#spxcampaign
STO 1 MAR 2019 2725/2705 BuPS at $0.45

Addy 8:01 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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#spxcampaign STO 28 FEB 2019…

#spxcampaign
STO 28 FEB 2019 2745/2735 BuPS at $0.40

Jeff 7:56 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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More SPY sold

#LongCalls Sold $SPY Mar 8th 277.5 calls for 4.95. Bought for 1.72, avg price. Still holding more.

Addy 7:54 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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#spxcampaign STO 27 FEB 2019…

#spxcampaign
STO 27 FEB 2019 2755/2735 BuPS at $0.50

fuzzballl 7:45 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Stocking up again to sell against later…

Bought UVXY APR 18 2019 90.0 Calls @ .30

Jeff 7:44 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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SHAK earnings analysis

#Earnings — $SHAK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day results had HIGHER extremes, meaning stock often continues in same direction after first day).

Nov. 1, 2018 AC -13.88% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -11.88%
May 3, 2018 AC +18.01% Biggest UP
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -7.71%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -3.36%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -5.45%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.20%
March 1, 2017 AC -2.63%
Nov. 9, 2016 AC +10.67%
Aug. 10, 2016 AC -6.19%
May 12, 2016 AC +9.74%
March 7, 2016 AC -11.83%

Avg (+ or -) 9.21%
Bias -1.28%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 47.81 to 58.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 48.12 to 57.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.0%): 43.45 to 62.55

Open to requests for other symbols.

mortlightman 7:43 am on Monday, February 25, 2019  

John Carter

Closing out all longs here as $SPX is moving towards the 2820ish target. I think there is more upside for $PYPL, $SQ, $IBB but would rather sell too soon. Going to give myself the gift of being 100% cash the rest of today and tomorrow, then revisit the markets on Wednesday.

Closing out all longs here as $SPX is moving towards the 2820ish target. I think there is more upside for $PYPL, $SQ, $IBB but would rather sell too soon. Going to give myself the gift of being 100% cash the rest of today and tomorrow, then revisit the markets on Wednesday.

Jeff 7:29 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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M earnings analysis

#Earnings — $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day results had roughly the same extremes).

Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%
Aug. 11, 2016 BO +17.08% Biggest UP
May 11, 2016 BO -15.16%
Feb. 23, 2016 BO +3.04%

Avg (+ or -) 9.71%
Bias -1.21%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 24.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 22.22 to 27.18
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 22.30 to 27.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 20.48 to 28.92

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 7:08 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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AZO trade

#Earnings Sold $AZO March 1st 855/860-940/945 condors for 2.30. Fairly close to 1:1 R/R, but only at the average historical move, so definitely risky.

Jeff 6:59 am on Monday, February 25, 2019
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AZO earnings analysis

#Earnings — $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day results were actually less extreme, meaning extreme moves were faded after first day).

Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06%
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
May 24, 2016 BO +2.47%
March 1, 2016 BO +2.06%

Avg (+ or -) 4.37%
Bias -2.35%, negative bias on earnings (1-day), but 5-day results show no bias… extreme negative moves were faded over the following days.

With stock at 900.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 853.07 to 946.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 860.65 to 939.35
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 793.44 to 1,006.56

Open to requests for other symbols.