Covered Calls NFLX TNDM EVTC / Short Puts WK

#coveredcalls
$TNDM STO 3/15 65 calls at 2.25 It can’t keep going up can it?
$NFLX STO 3/1 370 call at 2.60
$EVTC STO 3/15 30 call at .30

#shortputs
$WK STO 3/15 50 put at 1.70 Trying to build a position at a discount

GPS #earnings This one is…

GPS #earnings
This one is going to hurt anyone with short calls…

REALLY LAST TRADE: ;>)

OSTK STO 3/1/19 21.0 CALLS @.70 Expires tomorrow.

LAST TRADE:

OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.5 PUTS @.65 Expires tomorrow.

ADSK Earnings

#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…

Sold ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.25

VMW earnings analysis

#Earnings — $VMW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 29, 2018 AC +3.62%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -2.19%
May 31, 2018 AC +6.14%
March 1, 2018 AC -5.91%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +3.60%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +1.89%
June 1, 2017 AC -2.09%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +3.49%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +3.35%
July 18, 2016 AC +9.04%
April 19, 2016 AC +13.73% Biggest UP
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -9.82% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.41%
Bias 2.07%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 173.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.23 to 182.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 163.65 to 182.35
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 149.25 to 196.75

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

SQ Earnings

#Earnings – Nice bounce today. I’ll take the small winner and move along…

Bought to Close SQ MAR 1 2019 83.0/78.0 Bull Put Spread @ 1.65 (sold for 2.76)

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 1st 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors for 1.10. Going a bit aggressive with .08 deltas on the shorts… Fridays have been mellow lately. (IV: 9.5%, SPX 2787)

Expiring: Feb 28th condors, sold yesterday for .80.

#fallingknife Does HPQ qualifies for…

#fallingknife

Does HPQ qualifies for a #fallingknife ?
Down 18%

#earnings FL STO FL Mar01…

#earnings
FL
STO FL Mar01 50/68 Short Strangle -0.84

SLDB, Hit a new high…

SLDB, Hit a new high today since its big drop earlier this month. Long a full position. Will add on a pull back.

For rKnight52 Just saw your…

For rKnight52 Just saw your post from a few days ago regarding HIIQ. Thank you. TOS had the earnings date as2/27 initially, so when the stock cratered I assumed poor earnings, and not a lawsuit. I appreciate the information. Have a great week.

Arthur K. HONKHONK81

Updates

#pietrades
EOG batch 1 96.5 put rolled out next week to 96 for 0.16 credit. Cb 93.63 if assigned.
EOG batch 2 96.5 rolled out a week for 0.43 credit. CB 93.91 if assigned.
LNG 65.5 rolled out next week to 65 for 0.12 credit . Cb 63.59 if assigned.
TRIP 54 CC. Was assigned early Tues night so sold the 54 cc for next week for 0.96. Cb 53.03 and will let assign if ITM.
XBI 83/86/87 #lizardpies closed for 0.97. Total credit 3.22 over 3-4 weeks
AXLN 125/131/13 #lizardpies closed for 1. Total profit 1.37 over 3 weeks. It took off to the upside.
QQQ 171.5 sold for 0.75.
SQ 75.5 put STO for 0.83 credit for 3/8.
EXAS 3/15 87.5 put sold for 1.15
ERX 22 cc rolled next week for 0.3 credit. Cb 21.23
TQQQ 54 cc at 56.79, need to stay ahead of the rolls.
FAS 57 cc rolled for 0.40 cb now 54.77.
TQQQ 52 cc at 57 cost basis. Will be rolling.

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled for 0.24 cb now 7.48.
GILD 67.5/69 cb 6.51
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.44 credit. Cb 12.49
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.27. Cb 12.29.

Busy few weeks. Sun is out, headed outside.

PANW adjustment

$PANW I made a mistake yesterday when I legged into what was supposed to be an April iron condor. I erroneously went into March on the bear call spread side and April on the bull put spread side. I got a bit lucky with today’s pullback in the stock since the March options are decaying much faster than April so I was able to realize a quick 50% profit. I took the opportunity to roll the call spread (Mar 15 265/275) down and out to Apr 18 260/270 for 2.16 credit. Position is now an Apr 18 iron condor 230/220 BuPS + 260/270 BeCS. Total credit taken in so far is 4.76.

STX

#CoveredCalls – Rolling to capture the divvy of .63 and will probably let the stock go prior to next earnings unless it really pulls back to a better roll level. Basis 39.10 at that point…

Rolled STX MAR 08 2019 41.5 Calls to MAR 22 2019 41.5 Calls @ .10 credit

SPLK trade

#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly This trade worked last quarter, and with positive bias in $SPLK I like it. Still, the stock is a bit extended so I see it as riskier than last quarter.

Bought $SPLK March 1st 137/142/145 Broken wing CALL butterfly for 1.20. buy (1) 137, sell (2) 142, buy (1) 145
(stock at 137.00 at time of trade)

Trade has no upside risk. Max loss, debit paid (1.20). Max gain: 3.80 (if pin at 142). Capped gain: .80 if above 145. Goal will be to close for profit during the day when price passes through the 142 area. If it explodes higher or gaps lower, trade can be ignored for exercise to cancel out (or, if above 145, close all to avoid exercise fees). BUT if price ends day between 137 and 145, you WILL BE ASSIGNED if you don’t close the necessary options. I can help if you follow this trade.

TRADES:

HIIQ STO 3/15/19 41.0 CALLS @2.60 Delta .44
OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.0 PUTS @.50 Delta .26

MNST double double calendar

Jeff are you still holding this?

FL earnings analysis

#Earnings — $FL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 20, 2018 AC +14.90%
Aug. 24, 2018 BO -9.17%
May 25, 2018 BO +20.15%
March 2, 2018 BO -12.72%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +28.16% Biggest UP
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -27.92% Biggest DOWN
May 19, 2017 BO -16.65%
Feb. 24, 2017 BO +9.37%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO +0.60%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +11.04%
May 20, 2016 BO -6.45%
Feb. 26, 2016 BO -4.31%

Avg (+ or -) 13.45%
Bias 0.58%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 52.30 to 64.70
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.63 to 66.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 42.03 to 74.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX Feb28 IC closed

STO Feb28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x4
BTC Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .05 x8. Profit $210
BTC Feb 28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. Profit $50
BTC Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x6. Profit $150
Total profit $410
#spx1dte

SPLK earnings analysis

#Earnings — $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC +2.56%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC +7.73%

Avg (+ or -) 8.05%
Bias 3.80%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.42 to 149.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 126.90 to 149.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 113.31 to 162.69

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX IC 1dte

STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .25 x6
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x8. Profit $170
Full position for today.
These narrow-width condors will eventually bite me. For now with low vol/ATR, they’re working well.
#spx1dte

#earnings SQ Yesterday sold April…

#earnings SQ

Yesterday sold April 65/90 strangle for 3.28, bought today for 2.13

SQ Put Spread

Sold $SQ Apr 18 70/60 BuPS for 1.65

MNST double double calendar

Out for flat minus commissions. BTO @ .40. STC @ .40
#dubdubcal