Expiration

#OptionsExpiration

LABU Stock called away at 54. Out at breakeven but considering I got the stock at 60 and rode it down to 23 I’ll take it!

UVXY 42.0 Calls (sold for 1.08)

#markettide Are you guys still…

#markettide
Are you guys still recommending #markettide? What is our cost? Has any on you used it for futures trades? How about using it for #Fuzzy’s?

Expirations

#optionsexpiration
$SFIX 29.5 call
$TSLA 300/290 BECS

Have a great weekend

SPX 1-dte and final trades

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2790/2770 put spreads for .45. This is a roll-up from the puts closed this morning. I’m leaving the 2855/2875 call spread in place.

Expiring: March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.

#Earnings $CCL #IronButterfly from Monday a flop… exercising for loss of 1.25 on the sale for 2.25.

A TRADE: FALLING KNIFE

RH STO A BuPS 4/5/19 100/97 @.70

SYNA Puts

Channeling my inner @honkhonk81
$SYNA STO 4/12 39 puts at $1.00

Closed SPX Early

#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 3/29 2800/2820 BUPS at .50 STO 3/19 at 4.80 Thank you @jeffcp66. The ride was bumpy.

#fallingknife STO RH Jan17’20 70…

#fallingknife
STO RH Jan17’20 70 PUT $6.40

Expiration but mostly rolls, closing and managing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc for 4/12 cost basis 90.74. Depending on where it is trading will let assign at slight loss or roll.
EOG 89 cc 4/5 cost basis 92.63. Will roll this one.
ERX 23 cc for 4/5 cost basis 22.31. Will let assign or roll
TQQQ 54.5 cc for 3 weeks cost basis 56.39. Will roll
TQQQ 55 cc for today at 53.79 cost basis. Will assign today.
TQQQ 53.5 cc for 3 weeks cb 56.75. Will roll
FAS 57 cc for 4/5 cost basis 54.20. Will let assign.

#lizardpies
XBI 4/5 86/86/86.5 closed today for 0.52 profit per contract. Could only make .69 above 86 so decent profit for 2 day trade. I had skewed this one to the downside but it moved up today.
EXPE 4/26 115/131/132 for 2.31 credit. Looking good now, hope to close for 50% or better profit in 2 weeks. Right now at 25%.
SMH 4/26 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit. Same as above.
SQ 4/5 75.5/75.5/74.03 for 1.75 credit. Same but will most likely roll it in pieces.
JPM STO today the 4/5 101/101/102 for 1.81 credit. Looks like it found a bottom.
TNA 4/5 60/61/61.5 rolled this morning from last week. Credit now 3.06.

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 for 2 weeks at 8.41 cost basis.
GILD 65/65 for 3 weeks 6.39 cb
XBI 80/80/91.5 cb 11.74. 2 more weeks on the short calls.

Percentage return wise, the #jadelizard trades seem to work the best and also easier to roll because of the initial higher credit. Live study ongoing and will keep you posted. I am also skewing them depending on which way I think it is moving and that seems to help the winning percentage. Using the #markettide to time entries.

Have a good weekend!

2 more weeks in the jaw wires then back to work for me 🙂 although I am enjoying the extra trading.

Econ Calendar for week of 4/1/19

#Jobs Report is Friday morning

Screen Shot 2019-03-29 at 10.20.41 AM
Screen Shot 2019-03-29 at 10.20.41 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=1&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

SYNA HOD @39.32

SYNA HOD @39.32

Your Lyft is on the way!

Screen Shot 2019-03-29 at 9.00.30 AM

SPX 1-dte update

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX April 1st 2740/2720 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of condor yesterday… condor for 1.00, put side was .41 of that.

#doublecalendar, #doublecalendars

Rolled SYNA LABU Calls TNDM Puts

#shortcalls
$SYNA BTC 3/29 37.50 calls and STO 4/5 39 calls for debit of .31 cents. Stock at 38.78 now and is moving faster than I expected.
$LABU BTC 3/29 57 calls and STO 4/5 58.5 calls for added credit of .66. Stock at 58.10

#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 3/29 68.50 put and STO 4/12 68.5 calls for added credit of 1.30

SQ cals

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $SQ Apr 12th 78.5 calls for 1.05

SPX 6-hte

#SPX1dte Since I messed up and sold Monday’s expiration yesterday, I’m selling TODAY’s expiration now.

Sold $SPX March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors for 1.10. Expires tonight. (IV 12.71% SPX 2824)

IV is high enough that it isn’t too risky to get decent premium. From a delta standpoint I’m being more aggressive on the call side, but we haven’t seen any blistering rallies on Friday afternoons lately.

ROKU put spread

With the negative effect from the Apple event behind it, I’m looking at today’s price action/bounce off support as an opportunity to trade this to the upside. Earnings likely early/mid May.
Sold $ROKU May 17 55/50 BuPS for 1.25. Delta of short puts 23.

SYNA Short Calls

#shortputs
$SYNA STO 3/29 37.5 calls at .35 Covered Thank you @honkhonk81 for inspiration

SPX 1-dte, er, 2-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2720/2740-2855/2875 condors for 1.00 (IV: 11.32%, SPX 2811). Meant to sell March 29th but I sold Monday’s.

#shortcallspreads #postearnings LULU Sold May…

#shortcallspreads #postearnings LULU

Sold May 17, 185/195 for 1.50.

#lizardpies SQ rolled the put…

#lizardpies
SQ rolled the put down yesterday, today closed the 76/76.5 ccs for 0.05. The sold the 4/5 75.5/76 ccs fro 0.16 credit. After the roll of the puts earlier in the week, break even now 74.03 on down side and no risk to upside. In fact anything over 75.5 makes 4.10 a contract from the accumulated credits now.

Jeff what is your opinion…

Jeff what is your opinion on RH? I have a 135/137 call spread. It is under water at this time, no sure whether to gamble on a pop or take a small loss. cost 1.01

A TRADE:

SYNA BTO STOCK 36.62 Replacing some of the stock I BTO this morning.

TRADES:

SYNA STC my double stock position @36.98
SYNA STO 3/29/18 36.0 CALLS @.80 Covered , was ITM
SYNA STO 3/29/19 36.5 CALLS @.50

SPX ITM puts closed

#SPX1dte I got punched around pretty bad in March with a couple of 1-dte breaches and failed attempts at rolling. This reverse roll was the worst; had I left the call spread it would have ben fine. Thank God for strong months like February to eclipse small losing months like March.

BTC $SPX March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads for 8.50. Sold for 4.80 on March 19th as a #ReverseRoll.

#condorroll

Closing $M

Bought to close $M 4/18 23 puts @ .29. Sold for .72 on 2/26.

TSLA LULU BECS

#shortcallspreads
$TSLA STO 3/29 300/290 BECS at .45
$LULU STO 4/18 175/170 BECS at 2.18

RH earnings analysis

#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Always a big mover. Expected move is less than average move, meaning options are underpriced.

Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75%
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69%
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
March 29, 2016 AC +3.97%

Avg (+ or -) 17.46%
Bias 4.45%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 130.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.45 to 148.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 107.30 to 152.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 71.83 to 188.18
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 96.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings FIVE LULU Bought FIVE…

#earnings FIVE LULU

Bought FIVE strangle for .35, sold yesterday for 1.17.
I think it’s safe to say I didn’t need the LULU hedge.

Good morning

I did not win the lottery.

#hedge LULU In addition to…

#hedge LULU

In addition to the May strangle I sold today, I have had an April 18, 130/135 short ratio put spread (2 short 130s, 1 long 135) trade put on March 1. LULU has been up and down, trade hasn’t been profitable. I bought a March 29, 120/130 put spread for 1.33. If LULU drops big I have some insurance, will be OK on a big rise, the short 130s will cover the hedge.

#ironcondor TSLA Sold May 17,…

#ironcondor TSLA

Sold May 17, 215/220/320/325 for 1.83.

The pull back helped a…

The pull back helped a few positions so rolling.

#lizardpies
SQ this week 76/76/76.5 rolled the puts to next week 4/5 to the 75.5 put for 0.08 credit. I will let the call side expire worthless then re-establish the #jadelizard on Monday. Cb now 74.14 on put side, no risk to upside.

STO the 4/5 XBI 86/86/86.5 jade lizard for 1.19 credit. Cost basis 84.81 on downside and no risk to upside. Skewed it slightly to downside in case market keeps going down. Anywhere above 86.5 make 0.69 per contract. Below will roll the puts.

#pietrades
EOG batch 1 rolled the 90.5 cc out 2 weeks to 4/11 for 1.05 credit. Cost basis down to 90.74. 1 more roll should be profitable.

Not having a lot of success with directional trades, but by having time to watch the market (not all day) I have been able to time my rolls better and make more income. Not sure I will ever be a full on directional trader. Even watching the 1 minute /ES chart, just missed the pivot.

CMG

#LongPuts – Lottery tickets here…

Bought CMG JAN 15 2021 210.0 Puts @ 1.70 and 1.85

#callbutterfly CMG tastyTrade idea sold…

#callbutterfly CMG

tastyTrade idea sold April 18, 715/725/725/745 for 1.00 (but 1, 715, sell 2, 725s, buy 1 745), CMG hovering around 700.

SPX 1-dte puts closed

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 27th 2755 short puts for .10. Allowing remainder to expire. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.

MS FAS

#LongCalls – Dr. J reporting unusual options activity with MS July 44 strike calls being bought. FAS will be back on the radar for some put sales. Would like to see it a little lower first…

MS

#earnings FIVE Sold April 18,…

#earnings FIVE

Sold April 18, 100/145 strangle for 1.17. Thanks again Jeff.

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Adding one more…

Sold UVXY APR 12 2019 47.5 Call @ 2.00

Closed BMY Put Sold BIIB BUPS

#shortputs
$BMY BTC 6/21 45 puts at 1.20 STO at 3.50 on Jan 4 Hearing the little footsteps of stock assignment.
$BIIB STO 4/18 215/225 BUPS at 2.15

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Setting up the short side to sell against again. Free 90 strikes in April and May now. Thanks @Iceman for the strateegery!

Sold 1 UVXY APR 18 2019 47.5 Call @ 2.00
Bought 5 UVXY MAY 17 2019 90.0 Calls @ .43

#earnings LULU Sold May 17,…

#earnings LULU

Sold May 17, 110/180 strangle for 1.97, thanks for the data Jeff.

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Bought to Close UVXY MAR 29 2019 48.0 Call @ .15 (sold for 2.35)

INTC covered calls

#CoveredCalls Sold to Open #INTC Apr 26th 54 covered calls for 1.61. These expire before the ex-div. Earnings date not confirmed, so it could be before or after this expiry.

FIVE earnings analysis

#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

This stock is one of the most historically bullish movers on earnings.

Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86%
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45%
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -1.14%
June 2, 2016 AC +2.07%
March 22, 2016 AC +6.81%

Avg (+ or -) 6.43%
Bias 5.14%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 118.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 108.40 to 128.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 110.88 to 126.12
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 92.60 to 144.40
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 114.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

LULU earnings analysis

#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31%
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -10.55%
June 8, 2016 BO +4.90%
March 30, 2016 BO +10.71%

Avg (+ or -) 11.81%
Bias 3.92%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 144.550 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 130.30 to 158.70
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 127.43 to 161.57
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 110.64 to 178.36
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 168.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

JD TNDM Sold Puts / SFIX BEAT Sold Calls

#shortputs
$JD STO 5/17 27 put at .94
$TNDM STO 3/29 68.50 put at 1.10

#shortcalls
$SFIX STO 3/29 29.5 call at .30 Covered
$BEAT STO 4/18 70 call at 1.00 Covered

SQ calls closed

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $SQ Mar 29th 79.5 calls for .05. Sold for .95 last Tuesday.

SYNA New HOD, 35.0

SYNA New HOD, 35.0

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Mar 27th 2735/2755/2840/2855 condors for 1.20. (IV: 13.97%, SPX 2806)

Also, BTC March 29th 2860/2885 call spreads for 1.05. Sold for 3.75 on Friday.

EWZ

BTO #fuzzy 41/41/40 C/P/P Apr 18 $1.34

Closing DUST

Bought to close $DUST Jan 17 2020 40 calls @ .45. Sold for 4.50 on 1/30/18 and 6.00 on 2/5/18.

SYNA HOD

SYNA HOD

BA

#ShortPuts – Hanging out just above the 200ma so booking it early just in case. I’ll revisit with a break of support or for earnings next month.

Bought to Close BA APR 18 2019 325.0 Put @ .90 (sold for 3.50)

A TRADE: Been adding. A recent falling knife.

SYNA BTO STOCK @33.91 & 34.37

TRIP closed at a 1.47…

TRIP closed at a 1.47 loss per contract. I probably could have recovered but I have some other positions that are doing extremely well but using up a lot of margin so I closed this so i could hold onto the winning positions.

#lizardpies will be 2 versions. 1 version will be 43-45 DTE strangles and the other will be weekly ATM straddles with the next strike call purchase. These will be more weeklies. The longer ones will be closed or rolled at 50% profit. Trying this as an ongoing live experiment. Has done well so far so extending it to more income trades. Don’t think we need another hashtag, will just be in format short put strike/short call strike/long call strike.

For example SQ currently this Friday 76/76/76.5.

NUGT calls

#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT Jan 2020 40 calls for 2.10. Took over a month since it last peaked, but patience can be a virtue with these levered suckers.

CCL earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — I’m selling the CCL Mar 29th 53/56.5/60 #IronButterfly. Trying for 2.30, but will likely have to go lower. Not a big mover… its only large move was in December during the Christmas dive.

$CCL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 20, 2018 BO -9.48% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -4.83%
June 25, 2018 BO -7.85%
March 22, 2018 BO -1.28%
Dec. 19, 2017 BO +2.29%
Sept. 26, 2017 BO +2.86%
June 22, 2017 BO -1.11%
March 28, 2017 BO +0.66%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +2.27%
Sept. 26, 2016 BO -1.67%
June 28, 2016 BO +0.20%
March 30, 2016 BO +5.49% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 56.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.53 to 59.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.62 to 58.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 51.14 to 61.86
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 59.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Adding one. Sold against April long 90’s and April 66 strike DITM puts. Virtually zero upside risk in this one.

Sold UVXY MAR 29 2019 48.0 Call @ 2.35

TSLA #Shortput STO Apr18 200…

TSLA #Shortput STO Apr18 200 put for 2.56. Going long near recent support level of about 245. The 200 put is 9 delta.

A TRADE:

SYNA BTO STOCK @31.82

NUGT #Shortcalls Sold May 29th…

NUGT #Shortcalls Sold May 29th 23.50 calls at 0.25.

SPX 1-dte puts closed

#SPX1dte Filled at 9:14am ET on $SPX Mar 25th 2755/2735 put spreads for .25 (bought to close). Condors sold Friday for 1.00. Order in to close short 2855 calls for .05.

Final Trades and Expirations

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar
Sold to close $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 put calendar for .02. Holding long 88 calls into next Friday. Good job by Mort closing the put calendar earlier at .17… I just had too much faith. Double Calendars bought yesterday for .49.

Exercising: $TIF 96/100/102 calls #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.00. Bought yesterday for 1.50. Allowing to exercise on IB for about 70 cents in fees per lot, but closed manually for 2.00 on TOS to avoid $45 in fees.

SPX 1dte sold

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 25th 2735/2755/2855/2875 condors for 1.00 (IV: 11.64%, SPX: 2809)

SPX

STO April 1, 2575/2625 put spread at .60 cents.

SPX 27-dte roll

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 17th (monthlys) 2600/2625/2925/2950 condors for 3.65, #Rolling from recently stopped daily spreads.

Econ Calendar for week of 3/25/19

–Various Fed speakers throughout the week
–GDP report Thursday before the opening bell.

Screen Shot 2019-03-22 at 10.33.27 AM
Screen Shot 2019-03-22 at 10.34.44 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=25&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

VXXB long put spread

Another position to offset SVXY losses.
Bought $VXXB Apr 5 33/28 bear put spread for 2.50 debit. Will look to take 1.25 profit out of it.

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte I can say I was not expecting this after yesterday, but clearly volatility is coming back for at least a visit, if not to stay longer this time. Also getting too loose with my rules…. stop level was hit on the first dip. But it never fails that when I follow my rule and dump out for breakeven, the day ends flat. If I let it go, then we end up ITM. This is two big hits in the month, so must change my ways. Thank God Feb was so strong for my accounts!

BTC $SPX March 22nd 2810/2790 put spreads for 5.00. Condors sold for .80 yesterday.

With the warning signal from the VIX looking to sell a week-out call spread. Also have the March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads, now ITM. Will give these until Monday to see if this is a head fake and look to roll it then.

Upside Warning canceled

#VIXIndicator It was only a “minor” one so not surprising that it didn’t last long or go far… VIX spiked today to reach 25% higher than yesterday’s close, so that cancels the minor upside warning. A close at 17.04 or higher would be a Downside Warning.

UVXY call spread

Sold $UVXY May 17 55/65 bear call spread @ 1.20

NUGT Closed my Mar 22nd…

NUGT Closed my Mar 22nd 21 short calls at .04. I will look to cover up again next week. Have a great weekend all.

SPX

STO April 3, 2600/2650 bull put spread for a net of .66 cents

TIF

Closed BWBF $2.19 cost 1.61 yesterday
Thanks to Jeff