SPX 1dte credit spreads

STO Mar8 BuPS 2700/2695 @ .3125 x8 (average price)
STO Mar8 BeCS 2790/2795 @ .25 x4
Decided not to bore you with the details of building my trades.
#spx1dte

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 8th 2680/2700-2775/2795 condors for 1.10. (IV 13.48%, SPX 2747)

Also, closed April 5th 2525/2550-2925/2950 condors for 1.75. Sold for 2.60 on 2/20 as a roll. I didn’t want to sit with anything right now as I feel a rush lower could be happening in the coming days.

SQ

#ShortPuts – Starter position…

Sold SQ APR 18 2019 65.0 Puts @ 1.30

Overall it’s a welcome selloff the last few days. Getting a lot of my weekly call sales against LEAPS and covered calls back into play…finally

TRADES:

HIIQ STO 3/15/19 40.0 CALLS @1.40
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 39.0 PUTS @2.05 ITM These are usually monthly expirations, but this week only it’s a weekly. ;>)

COST dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.20. As yesterday, filled on TOS but not IB yet.

BIG earnings analysis

#Earnings — $BIG reports tomorrow. Below are details on earnings EIGHT-day moves over the last 12 quarters (since next available options expire in 8 days).

Fri 12/07/2018 BO -29.28% Biggest DOWN
Fri 08/31/2018 BO -10.10%
Fri 06/01/2018 BO +4.54%
Fri 03/09/2018 BO -12.93%
Fri 12/01/2017 BO +0.76%
Fri 08/25/2017 BO -4.59%
Fri 05/26/2017 BO +3.28%
Fri 03/03/2017 BO -1.89%
Fri 12/02/2016 BO +8.09%
Fri 08/26/2016 BO -5.76%
Fri 05/27/2016 BO +18.85% Biggest UP
Fri 03/04/2016 BO +8.88%

Avg (+ or -) 9.08%
Bias -1.68%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 31.65 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 27.41 to 35.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.78 to 34.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.3%): 22.38 to 40.92
Based on Max UP only (+18.9%): 37.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings BIG Jeff-do you have…

#earnings BIG

Jeff-do you have data on BIG? Thanks

#fuzzy I had been doing…

#fuzzy I had been doing well with KR, I actually closed my existing ones just beginning of the week as i had a decent profit in them (I guess luck was part of it…). Now, after that steep drop, i re-entered at 23/25/25 exp Jan 2021. Paid 3$ I BTO 3 contracts to allow me to sell only 2 calls against it, limiting my overall risk in case the stock price would over run my short calls.

LABU Covered Call

#shortcalls
$LABU STO 3/15 57 call at 1.40

#coveredcallcampaign #fallingknife #longputs Trades from…

#coveredcallcampaign #fallingknife #longputs Trades from yesterday and today
WYNN yesterday rolled 140 call to April for 1.25, WYNN tanking today
CPRI yesterday rolled March 22 call to April 12 for .66
EWZ sold short 100 shares for 41.57
MS bought long April 18, 40/35 BeCS
PFE sold April 18, 44 call, was supposed to be a covered call in an IRA, ended up in wrong account, for .26
CVS today sold April 18, 50 put for .86, thanks @ramie77
MET rolled 42.50 call to April 18 for .57
DB bought April 18, 9 put for .62

SPX 4-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX March 8th 2720/2700 put spreads for 2.10. Condors sold Monday for 2.03 as a roll.

Expected move breached this morning so this is too risky to hold longer. Was able to get out near break-even on the bounce. I’ll let the 2830/2850 call side expire.

#rolling

NTNX May be worth a…

NTNX May be worth a look. 3 days of green open price candles and green volume candles, higher highs and lows. I’m long. Recent falling knife.

TQQQ calls closed

#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $TQQQ March 8th 50 calls for .78. Sold for 2.15 on Feb 22nd.

COST earnings analysis

#Earnings — $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC +3.57% Biggest UP
March 2, 2016 AC -0.77%

Avg (+ or -) 3.43%
Bias -1.01%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 218.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 210.75 to 225.25
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 210.52 to 225.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 199.30 to 236.70
Based on Max UP only (+3.6%): 225.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

BURL Down Down Down

Not the bullish expectation I had. Biggest down -9% in many a year.