#optionsexpiration and position updates. I…

#optionsexpiration and position updates.

I was hoping for a reversal today, but alas I was never able to get short. But the run has brought 2 accounts very close to all time highs and 1 of them had some SVXY crap in them so that is a good thing.

#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc at cost basis of 91.79. Assigned off 96 put 2 weeks ago. Closes next week, nit sure if I will roll or let call out. I could use the money elsewhere.
EOG second batch 89 call at 92.63. Same idea.
TRIP 52.5 cc rolled down to 8 DTE 52 for 51.78. I will let assign if ITM
ERX 8 DTE 23 cc at 22.31. Will assign if ITM
TQQQ 54.5 CC at 56.39 cost basis. A pullback would be helpful
FAS 57 cc at 54.20. Will let assign next week.
TQQQ 53.5 cc at 56.75
TQQQ 55 cc at 53.79

#lizardpies
EXPE 36 DTE 115/131/132 at 2.31 credit
SMH 36 DTE 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit

#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 at 8.41
XBI 80/80/91.5 at 11.74
GILD 67.5/67.5 rolled down 22 DTE for 0.28 debit so now cost basis is 6.39.

Ok, just about finished with taxes which is my yearly review of every trade I did the previous year.
SVXY was a complete debacle.
#fuzzy held up the best during the correction but I am still most consistent with #pietrades. However, looks like the #lizardpies may actually be better, especially when selling the ATM straddle. That is the most amount of income you can collect. Then the long call option prevents losses to the upside. I will be doing more of these on a weekly basis.

In fact, I have a lot of time at the moment and found some Tasty trade research (recent) that confirms it. Less volatile returns than even strangles.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options-workshop/episodes/research-on-the-big-lizard-strategy-01-15-2019

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/options-workshop/episodes/using-big-lizard-trades-in-a-portfolio-01-22-2019

If you are in a hurry the slides will sum it up. Almost stayed flat during the 2008-2009 market, certainly beat every other tactic.

Moved some money so hopefully some directional opportunities tomorrow.

🙂

TRADES:

NTNX BTO STOCK @41.98, 42.10, & 43.07

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 22 2790/2810/2880/2890 condors for .80. (IV: 10.86%, SPX 2851)

Also, closed $SPX March 22 2780/2755 put spreads for .10. Sold for 3.45 on March 13th.

TIF earnings butterfly (bullish)

#Earnings Bought to Open $TIF 96/100/102 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.50.
Max loss: $150
Downside breakeven: 97.50
Max profit: 2.50 (if pin at 100)
Capped profit at 102 and above: .50

NKE dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $NKE Mar22/Mar29 88 #DoubleCalendar for .49.

TIF earnings analysis

#Earnings — $TIF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 28, 2018 BO -11.82% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 28, 2018 BO +0.99%
May 23, 2018 BO +23.28% Biggest UP
March 16, 2018 BO -5.06%
Nov. 29, 2017 BO -1.58%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO -1.32%
May 24, 2017 BO -8.70%
March 17, 2017 BO +2.71%
Nov. 29, 2016 BO +3.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +6.40%
May 25, 2016 BO +0.06%
March 18, 2016 BO +2.95%

Avg (+ or -) 5.67%
Bias 0.92%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 100.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 93.90 to 106.10
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 94.33 to 105.67
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.3%): 76.72 to 123.28
Based on DOWN max only (-11.8%): 88.18

Open to requests for other symbols.

NKE earnings analysis

#Earnings — $NKE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
June 28, 2016 AC +3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%

Avg (+ or -) 4.54%
Bias 1.19%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 87.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 83.36 to 92.04
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 83.72 to 91.68
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.7%): 77.95 to 97.45
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 81.53

Open to requests for other symbols.