ROKU put spread

With the negative effect from the Apple event behind it, I’m looking at today’s price action/bounce off support as an opportunity to trade this to the upside. Earnings likely early/mid May.
Sold $ROKU May 17 55/50 BuPS for 1.25. Delta of short puts 23.

SYNA Short Calls

#shortputs
$SYNA STO 3/29 37.5 calls at .35 Covered Thank you @honkhonk81 for inspiration

SPX 1-dte, er, 2-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2720/2740-2855/2875 condors for 1.00 (IV: 11.32%, SPX 2811). Meant to sell March 29th but I sold Monday’s.

#shortcallspreads #postearnings LULU Sold May…

#shortcallspreads #postearnings LULU

Sold May 17, 185/195 for 1.50.

#lizardpies SQ rolled the put…

#lizardpies
SQ rolled the put down yesterday, today closed the 76/76.5 ccs for 0.05. The sold the 4/5 75.5/76 ccs fro 0.16 credit. After the roll of the puts earlier in the week, break even now 74.03 on down side and no risk to upside. In fact anything over 75.5 makes 4.10 a contract from the accumulated credits now.

Jeff what is your opinion…

Jeff what is your opinion on RH? I have a 135/137 call spread. It is under water at this time, no sure whether to gamble on a pop or take a small loss. cost 1.01

A TRADE:

SYNA BTO STOCK 36.62 Replacing some of the stock I BTO this morning.

TRADES:

SYNA STC my double stock position @36.98
SYNA STO 3/29/18 36.0 CALLS @.80 Covered , was ITM
SYNA STO 3/29/19 36.5 CALLS @.50

SPX ITM puts closed

#SPX1dte I got punched around pretty bad in March with a couple of 1-dte breaches and failed attempts at rolling. This reverse roll was the worst; had I left the call spread it would have ben fine. Thank God for strong months like February to eclipse small losing months like March.

BTC $SPX March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads for 8.50. Sold for 4.80 on March 19th as a #ReverseRoll.

#condorroll

Closing $M

Bought to close $M 4/18 23 puts @ .29. Sold for .72 on 2/26.

TSLA LULU BECS

#shortcallspreads
$TSLA STO 3/29 300/290 BECS at .45
$LULU STO 4/18 175/170 BECS at 2.18

RH earnings analysis

#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Always a big mover. Expected move is less than average move, meaning options are underpriced.

Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75%
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69%
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
March 29, 2016 AC +3.97%

Avg (+ or -) 17.46%
Bias 4.45%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 130.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.45 to 148.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 107.30 to 152.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 71.83 to 188.18
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 96.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings FIVE LULU Bought FIVE…

#earnings FIVE LULU

Bought FIVE strangle for .35, sold yesterday for 1.17.
I think it’s safe to say I didn’t need the LULU hedge.

Good morning

I did not win the lottery.