TRIP closed at a 1.47…

TRIP closed at a 1.47 loss per contract. I probably could have recovered but I have some other positions that are doing extremely well but using up a lot of margin so I closed this so i could hold onto the winning positions.

#lizardpies will be 2 versions. 1 version will be 43-45 DTE strangles and the other will be weekly ATM straddles with the next strike call purchase. These will be more weeklies. The longer ones will be closed or rolled at 50% profit. Trying this as an ongoing live experiment. Has done well so far so extending it to more income trades. Don’t think we need another hashtag, will just be in format short put strike/short call strike/long call strike.

For example SQ currently this Friday 76/76/76.5.

NUGT calls

#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT Jan 2020 40 calls for 2.10. Took over a month since it last peaked, but patience can be a virtue with these levered suckers.

CCL earnings trade and analysis

#Earnings — I’m selling the CCL Mar 29th 53/56.5/60 #IronButterfly. Trying for 2.30, but will likely have to go lower. Not a big mover… its only large move was in December during the Christmas dive.

$CCL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Dec. 20, 2018 BO -9.48% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 27, 2018 BO -4.83%
June 25, 2018 BO -7.85%
March 22, 2018 BO -1.28%
Dec. 19, 2017 BO +2.29%
Sept. 26, 2017 BO +2.86%
June 22, 2017 BO -1.11%
March 28, 2017 BO +0.66%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +2.27%
Sept. 26, 2016 BO -1.67%
June 28, 2016 BO +0.20%
March 30, 2016 BO +5.49% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.33%
Bias -1.04%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 56.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.53 to 59.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.62 to 58.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 51.14 to 61.86
Based on UP max only (+5.5%): 59.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Adding one. Sold against April long 90’s and April 66 strike DITM puts. Virtually zero upside risk in this one.

Sold UVXY MAR 29 2019 48.0 Call @ 2.35

TSLA #Shortput STO Apr18 200…

TSLA #Shortput STO Apr18 200 put for 2.56. Going long near recent support level of about 245. The 200 put is 9 delta.

A TRADE:

SYNA BTO STOCK @31.82

NUGT #Shortcalls Sold May 29th…

NUGT #Shortcalls Sold May 29th 23.50 calls at 0.25.