Covered Calls NFLX TNDM EVTC / Short Puts WK

#coveredcalls
$TNDM STO 3/15 65 calls at 2.25 It can’t keep going up can it?
$NFLX STO 3/1 370 call at 2.60
$EVTC STO 3/15 30 call at .30

#shortputs
$WK STO 3/15 50 put at 1.70 Trying to build a position at a discount

GPS #earnings This one is…

GPS #earnings
This one is going to hurt anyone with short calls…

REALLY LAST TRADE: ;>)

OSTK STO 3/1/19 21.0 CALLS @.70 Expires tomorrow.

LAST TRADE:

OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.5 PUTS @.65 Expires tomorrow.

ADSK Earnings

#JadeLizard – This thing can go anywhere. If it tanks I’ll get the stock around the 50ma. No upside risk…

Sold ADSK MAR 1 2019 150.0/170.0/172.5 Jade Lizard @ 3.25

VMW earnings analysis

#Earnings — $VMW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 29, 2018 AC +3.62%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -2.19%
May 31, 2018 AC +6.14%
March 1, 2018 AC -5.91%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +3.60%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +1.89%
June 1, 2017 AC -2.09%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +3.49%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +3.35%
July 18, 2016 AC +9.04%
April 19, 2016 AC +13.73% Biggest UP
Jan. 26, 2016 AC -9.82% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 5.41%
Bias 2.07%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 173.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 163.23 to 182.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 163.65 to 182.35
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.7%): 149.25 to 196.75

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

SQ Earnings

#Earnings – Nice bounce today. I’ll take the small winner and move along…

Bought to Close SQ MAR 1 2019 83.0/78.0 Bull Put Spread @ 1.65 (sold for 2.76)

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 1st 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors for 1.10. Going a bit aggressive with .08 deltas on the shorts… Fridays have been mellow lately. (IV: 9.5%, SPX 2787)

Expiring: Feb 28th condors, sold yesterday for .80.

#fallingknife Does HPQ qualifies for…

#fallingknife

Does HPQ qualifies for a #fallingknife ?
Down 18%

#earnings FL STO FL Mar01…

#earnings
FL
STO FL Mar01 50/68 Short Strangle -0.84

SLDB, Hit a new high…

SLDB, Hit a new high today since its big drop earlier this month. Long a full position. Will add on a pull back.

For rKnight52 Just saw your…

For rKnight52 Just saw your post from a few days ago regarding HIIQ. Thank you. TOS had the earnings date as2/27 initially, so when the stock cratered I assumed poor earnings, and not a lawsuit. I appreciate the information. Have a great week.

Arthur K. HONKHONK81

Updates

#pietrades
EOG batch 1 96.5 put rolled out next week to 96 for 0.16 credit. Cb 93.63 if assigned.
EOG batch 2 96.5 rolled out a week for 0.43 credit. CB 93.91 if assigned.
LNG 65.5 rolled out next week to 65 for 0.12 credit . Cb 63.59 if assigned.
TRIP 54 CC. Was assigned early Tues night so sold the 54 cc for next week for 0.96. Cb 53.03 and will let assign if ITM.
XBI 83/86/87 #lizardpies closed for 0.97. Total credit 3.22 over 3-4 weeks
AXLN 125/131/13 #lizardpies closed for 1. Total profit 1.37 over 3 weeks. It took off to the upside.
QQQ 171.5 sold for 0.75.
SQ 75.5 put STO for 0.83 credit for 3/8.
EXAS 3/15 87.5 put sold for 1.15
ERX 22 cc rolled next week for 0.3 credit. Cb 21.23
TQQQ 54 cc at 56.79, need to stay ahead of the rolls.
FAS 57 cc rolled for 0.40 cb now 54.77.
TQQQ 52 cc at 57 cost basis. Will be rolling.

#fuzzy
GILD 70/70 rolled for 0.24 cb now 7.48.
GILD 67.5/69 cb 6.51
LNG 50/60 rolled for 0.44 credit. Cb 12.49
XBI 80/80 rolled for 0.27. Cb 12.29.

Busy few weeks. Sun is out, headed outside.

PANW adjustment

$PANW I made a mistake yesterday when I legged into what was supposed to be an April iron condor. I erroneously went into March on the bear call spread side and April on the bull put spread side. I got a bit lucky with today’s pullback in the stock since the March options are decaying much faster than April so I was able to realize a quick 50% profit. I took the opportunity to roll the call spread (Mar 15 265/275) down and out to Apr 18 260/270 for 2.16 credit. Position is now an Apr 18 iron condor 230/220 BuPS + 260/270 BeCS. Total credit taken in so far is 4.76.

STX

#CoveredCalls – Rolling to capture the divvy of .63 and will probably let the stock go prior to next earnings unless it really pulls back to a better roll level. Basis 39.10 at that point…

Rolled STX MAR 08 2019 41.5 Calls to MAR 22 2019 41.5 Calls @ .10 credit

SPLK trade

#Earnings #BrokenWingButterfly This trade worked last quarter, and with positive bias in $SPLK I like it. Still, the stock is a bit extended so I see it as riskier than last quarter.

Bought $SPLK March 1st 137/142/145 Broken wing CALL butterfly for 1.20. buy (1) 137, sell (2) 142, buy (1) 145
(stock at 137.00 at time of trade)

Trade has no upside risk. Max loss, debit paid (1.20). Max gain: 3.80 (if pin at 142). Capped gain: .80 if above 145. Goal will be to close for profit during the day when price passes through the 142 area. If it explodes higher or gaps lower, trade can be ignored for exercise to cancel out (or, if above 145, close all to avoid exercise fees). BUT if price ends day between 137 and 145, you WILL BE ASSIGNED if you don’t close the necessary options. I can help if you follow this trade.

TRADES:

HIIQ STO 3/15/19 41.0 CALLS @2.60 Delta .44
OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.0 PUTS @.50 Delta .26

MNST double double calendar

Jeff are you still holding this?

FL earnings analysis

#Earnings — $FL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 20, 2018 AC +14.90%
Aug. 24, 2018 BO -9.17%
May 25, 2018 BO +20.15%
March 2, 2018 BO -12.72%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +28.16% Biggest UP
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -27.92% Biggest DOWN
May 19, 2017 BO -16.65%
Feb. 24, 2017 BO +9.37%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO +0.60%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +11.04%
May 20, 2016 BO -6.45%
Feb. 26, 2016 BO -4.31%

Avg (+ or -) 13.45%
Bias 0.58%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 52.30 to 64.70
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.63 to 66.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 42.03 to 74.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX Feb28 IC closed

STO Feb28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x4
BTC Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .05 x8. Profit $210
BTC Feb 28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. Profit $50
BTC Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x6. Profit $150
Total profit $410
#spx1dte

SPLK earnings analysis

#Earnings — $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 AC +2.56%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC +7.73%

Avg (+ or -) 8.05%
Bias 3.80%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 126.42 to 149.58
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 126.90 to 149.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 113.31 to 162.69

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX IC 1dte

STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .25 x6
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x8. Profit $170
Full position for today.
These narrow-width condors will eventually bite me. For now with low vol/ATR, they’re working well.
#spx1dte

#earnings SQ Yesterday sold April…

#earnings SQ

Yesterday sold April 65/90 strangle for 3.28, bought today for 2.13

SQ Put Spread

Sold $SQ Apr 18 70/60 BuPS for 1.65

MNST double double calendar

Out for flat minus commissions. BTO @ .40. STC @ .40
#dubdubcal

SQ Earnings

#Earnings – Sold SQ MAR 1 2019 83.0/78.0 Bull Put Spread @ 2.76

#pietrades

LAST ONE:

OSTK STO 3/1/19 19.5 PUT @1.06

#earnings SQ Sold April 18,… MNST

#earnings SQ
SQ Sold April 18, 60/95 strangle for 3.28
MNST bought March 1/8,54/62 double calendar for .28, thanks Mama and Jeff

ANOTHER:

OSTR STO 3/1/19 22.0 CALLS @1.00 2 Days and 1 hr. to expiration. ;>)

A TRADE:

OSTK BTO STOCK 21.19
OSTK STO 3/1/19 21.0 ITM CALLS @1.40 Expires Friday

SQ calls, earnings

#Earnings #LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold $SQ March 1st 85 calls for 1.08. Against my 2020 110 long call LEAPs.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 28th 2735/2755-2820/2835 condors for .80. (IV 10.1%, SPX 2794)

MNST double double calendar

Bot MNST Mar 1/8 62 call cal and Mar 1/8 54 put cal @ .20 (EM strikes)
Bot MNST Mar 1/8 58 call cal and Mar 2/8 58 put cal @ .20 (ATM strike)
Total cost for four calendars: $40
Thanks to @jeffcp66 for continuing to trade this strategy after I abandoned it.:-)
#DubDubCal

#doublecalendar

BUD trade and earnings analysis

#Earnings — Bought to open $BUD Mar01/Mar08 75 #DoubleCalendar for .48. Looking at the daily chart, BUD is not the king of big moves. I’ve said it all.

$BUD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 25, 2018 BO -9.37% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO -5.02%
May 9, 2018 BO -0.31%
March 1, 2018 BO +3.07%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
July 27, 2017 BO +6.16% Biggest UP
May 4, 2017 BO +5.68%
March 2, 2017 BO -3.72%
Oct. 28, 2016 BO -3.80%
July 29, 2016 BO +2.79%
May 4, 2016 BO -2.98%
Feb. 25, 2016 BO -2.38%

Avg (+ or -) 3.85%
Bias -0.90%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.07 to 78.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 72.11 to 77.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 67.97 to 82.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

MNST trade and earnings analysis

#Earnings — Bought to open $MNST Mar01/Mar08 58 #DoubleCalendar for .23, .246, and .25.

$MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +2.47%
April 29, 2016 BO +12.81%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC -1.74%

Avg (+ or -) 5.55%
Bias 0.31%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 58.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.07 to 61.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 54.78 to 61.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 49.63 to 66.37

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX 1-dte closed

BTC SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @ .05 x2. STO @ .35 x2. $60 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .35 x4. $120 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
Total profit $280
#spx1-dte

TRADES:

OSTK STO 3/1/19 18.0 NTM CALLS @.65 Just for the premium. Expires in 2.5 days.
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 NTM CALLS @4.50

SPX 1-dte

Building another short-term SPX position
STO Feb28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x2
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .30 x4
BTC Feb28 2815/2820 BeCS @ .05 x8. Profit $210
BTC Feb 28 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. Profit $50
BTC Feb28 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x6. Profit $150
Total profit $410
#spx1dte

TRADES:

HIIQ BTO STOCK @37.75

/NQ and Market Tide

#Scalping – I did not trade this…woulda coulda shoulda…this is the entry I look for. A big move to a round number and the printing of the reversal. Would be a safe entry with stop beyond the “roundy”.

nq

TRADES:

SFIX BTO stock to cover short calls @27.45
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 33.0 PUTS @1.70
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 CALLS @2.90 Stock reported & crashed

TRADES: Yesterday, couldn’t post because…

TRADES: Yesterday, couldn’t post because program wouldn’t let me????

PBYI STO 3/1/19 29.0 CALLS @1.08
SQ STO 3/1/19 72/67 BuPS

PANW call spread

Sold $PANW Apr 18 265/275 bear call spread for 1.49

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Feb 27th 2755/2735 put spreads for .20. Would have allowed to expire but I have to be away from my desk for a time today. Order in to close the 2820 short calls for .05. Condors sold yesterday for 1.10.

WTW

#LongCalls #LEAPS – The incredible becomes “incredibler”. I’ll continue selling 20 -25 cents per week indefinitely. Feels like a member of the family now!

SQ earnings analysis

#Earnings — $SQ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 7, 2018 AC +8.48%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -11.38%
May 7, 2018 AC +7.84%
Feb. 21, 2018 AC -27.23% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -20.10%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC -1.08%
May 10, 2017 AC +5.58%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -18.13%
Nov. 4, 2015 AC +9.99%
Aug. 5, 2015 AC +10.00% Biggest UP
May 6, 2015 AC -7.90%
Feb. 26, 2015 AC -6.34%

Avg (+ or -) 11.17%
Bias -4.19%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 78.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 72.38 to 84.62
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 69.73 to 87.27
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.2%): 57.12 to 99.88

Open to requests for other symbols.

AZO closed

#Earnings #IronCondor Bougtht to close $AZO March 1st 940/945 call spreads for .35. Leaving put spread to expire or shorts to close for .05. Condor sold for 2.30 on Monday.

Update on MU

Apparently, as the kids like to say, my maths wasn’t working yesterday.

When I rolled the adjusted position (from Mar 41.50/42 strangle to Apr 40/46 strangle), I hadn’t calculated that I already had a small profit in the position. At that point I wouldn’t normally have rolled since that would have been a defensive move. Should have just closed it out yesterday. Got a few cents more profit today so I decided to close the whole thing out.

Bought to close $MU 4/18 40/46 strangle @ 3.53. Total premium taken in with rolls/adjustments was 3.91, so a .38 overall profit.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 2735/2755-2820/2835 condors for 1.10. (IV: 10.67%, SPX 2796)

#earnings GS Took a beating…

#earnings GS
Took a beating on this one. Jan. 15, sold a Feb. 15, 155/175/180/200 IC. rolled to March as GS stayed up. It goes ex-div tomorrow, don’t want to be short 100 shares at 180 with the stock at 200, and have to pay the .80 dividend, negative $836 on everything.

CAT put spread

$CAT gapped down this morning after the downgrade but some buying has come in. Stock has been in an uptrend with higher lows all year. Sold $CAT Apr 18 130/120 BuPS for 1.62.

BIDU

#ShortPuts #IRA – I was looking at May 140-145 but decided to go more aggressively in April and keep the sale prior to next earnings. Nice having the roll/covered call possibility with the extra earnings premium.

Sold BIDU APR 18 2019 150.0 Put @ 2.87

Stepping into Macy’s

Looking at recent support holding after the positive reaction to earnings. Sold $M Apr 18 23 puts @ .72.

PANW earnings analysis

#Earnings — $PANW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 29, 2018 AC -1.76%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +3.28%
June 4, 2018 BO -0.52%
Feb. 26, 2018 AC +2.31%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC +4.82%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +10.53%
May 31, 2017 AC +17.20% Biggest UP
Feb. 28, 2017 AC -24.15% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 21, 2016 AC -13.24%
Aug. 30, 2016 AC -7.16%
May 26, 2016 AC -12.36%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC +5.20%

Avg (+ or -) 8.54%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 233.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 217.69 to 248.31
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 213.09 to 252.91
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.2%): 176.73 to 289.27

Open to requests for other symbols.

EOG earnings analysis

#Earnings — $EOG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 2, 2018 BO -4.24%
Aug. 3, 2018 BO -2.79%
May 3, 2018 AC -1.16%
Feb. 28, 2018 BO -5.16% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 3, 2017 BO +1.50%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO -2.26%
May 8, 2017 AC -0.05%
Feb. 27, 2017 AC -0.93%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -0.30%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC +7.02% Biggest UP
May 5, 2016 AC -3.17%
Feb. 25, 2016 AC -1.45%

Avg (+ or -) 2.50%
Bias -1.08%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 94.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 90.14 to 98.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 92.14 to 96.86
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 87.87 to 101.13

Open to requests for other symbols.

#coveredcallcampaign AA Rolled March 15…

#coveredcallcampaign AA

Rolled March 15 30 call to April 18, 30 call for .93 bringing cost basis down to 32.09, assigned at 38, stock currently at 30.

Covered Call / LABU / ETSY / TNDM

#coveredcalls
$LABU STO 3/1 60 call at 1.75. Sold after the big surge up today. Not sure if it will hold. If I get called away basis is 47 and I am happy camper. If it goes up to 100 next week still a happy camper, just not the happiest camper.

$ETSY STO 3/15 65 calls at 2.35. Part covered, part naked. Naked more exciting. Earlier in day sold some of stock.
$TNDM STO 3/1 50 calls at 2.65 They report soon and I have too large a position. If taken away I am fine. If not I will sell calls again.

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – One late fill…

Sold UVXY MAR 22 2019 55.0 Calls @ 1.10

LABU

#CoveredCalls – Rolling one out and up…

Rolled LABU MAR 08 2019 52.0 Call to MAR 29 2019 54.0 Call @ .15 credit

Rolling MU strangle

Rolled $MU Mar 15 41.50/42 strangle out to Apr 18 40/46 strangle for .35 credit.
History so far:
1/29: March 33/42 strangle sold for 1.92 credit
2/6: Rolled 33 puts up to 39 puts, staying in March, for 1.00 credit
2/20: Rolled 39 puts up to 41.50 puts, staying in March, for .64 credit
2/25: Rolled March 41.50/42 strangle out to April 40/46 for .35, widening from 1/2 point to 6 points with the deltas (put/call) at 31 and 38. The fact that earnings come between March and April expiration allowed me to make this roll.

Now I’m just looking for this thing to slow down a bit. Total credit taken in 3.91 so my breakevens are now 36.09 and 49.91, a pretty wide range for the stock to bounce around between now and earnings at which point I’ll have hopefully closed the position for a profit.

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte As a roll from the stopped spread today: Sold $SPX March 1st 2715/2740/2845/2870 condors for 2.40. If possible I will close with 60% of profit a day or two early. (.10 delta, 12.5% IV, SpX 2801)

TRADES: Some delayed.

SLDB STC STOCK 10.26 A gift.
PYX BTO STOCK @25.33
NIO BTO STOCK @9.03

#earnings #jadelizard M Sold March…

#earnings #jadelizard M

Sold March 15, 22(put)/25/25.50 for .73, stock at 24.60, recent low of 23.95. I have 100 assigned shares from a while ago. Thanks for the data Jeff.

Upside warning trades

Closed most of my IWM, QQQ, and SPY calls for doubles and triples. Opened on Feb 5. Still holding one lot each.

Rolled my TNA, TQQQ, and TNA stock replacement structures (SRS) back down to 85delta long/35 delta short. This is the fourth roll down on TNA. Locked in a profit with no risk on current position. UPRO needs one more roll. TQQQ a little slower but more than 50% covered.
#UpW

SPX IC

Starting up my short-term SPX ICs again.
STO SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @.35 x2 based on hitting resistance in 2810 area today.
STO SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @.25 x2 based on well-defined price range box
STO SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .35 x4
STO SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .25 x2

BTC SPX Feb27 2845/2850 BeCS @ .05 x2. STO @ .35 x2. $60 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2825/2830 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .35 x4. $120 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2755/2750 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
BTC SPX Feb27 2765/2760 BuPS @ .05 x2. STO @ .25 x2. $40 profit
Total profit $280
#spx1dte

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Feb 25th 2815 calls for 2.75. Holding the longs to sell if we go higher.

This is my first loss on a short 1-dte since Jan 22nd. And again, losses are about 1x-3x the wins, so not difficult to make up.

LABU

Rolled March 65 calls to June 21, 70 calls for a credit of 2.90,trying to stay ahead of this rally.

UVXY

#ShortCalls -This was a naked short call that went ITM in December. Rolled it way out and up slightly. Finally closing it for a profit. Can now move the call sales back to nearer term (if we ever get any more volatility)…

Bought to Close UVXY JUN 21 2019 57.0 Call @ 3.75 (sold for 4.00)

#spxcampaign STO 1 MAR 2019…

#spxcampaign
STO 1 MAR 2019 2725/2705 BuPS at $0.45

#spxcampaign STO 28 FEB 2019…

#spxcampaign
STO 28 FEB 2019 2745/2735 BuPS at $0.40

More SPY sold

#LongCalls Sold $SPY Mar 8th 277.5 calls for 4.95. Bought for 1.72, avg price. Still holding more.

#spxcampaign STO 27 FEB 2019…

#spxcampaign
STO 27 FEB 2019 2755/2735 BuPS at $0.50

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Stocking up again to sell against later…

Bought UVXY APR 18 2019 90.0 Calls @ .30

SHAK earnings analysis

#Earnings — $SHAK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day results had HIGHER extremes, meaning stock often continues in same direction after first day).

Nov. 1, 2018 AC -13.88% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -11.88%
May 3, 2018 AC +18.01% Biggest UP
Feb. 15, 2018 AC -7.71%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -3.36%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC -5.45%
May 4, 2017 AC +9.20%
March 1, 2017 AC -2.63%
Nov. 9, 2016 AC +10.67%
Aug. 10, 2016 AC -6.19%
May 12, 2016 AC +9.74%
March 7, 2016 AC -11.83%

Avg (+ or -) 9.21%
Bias -1.28%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 47.81 to 58.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 48.12 to 57.88
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.0%): 43.45 to 62.55

Open to requests for other symbols.

John Carter

Closing out all longs here as $SPX is moving towards the 2820ish target. I think there is more upside for $PYPL, $SQ, $IBB but would rather sell too soon. Going to give myself the gift of being 100% cash the rest of today and tomorrow, then revisit the markets on Wednesday.

Closing out all longs here as $SPX is moving towards the 2820ish target. I think there is more upside for $PYPL, $SQ, $IBB but would rather sell too soon. Going to give myself the gift of being 100% cash the rest of today and tomorrow, then revisit the markets on Wednesday.