Hi @jeffcp66,
Do you have the earnings data set for $DATA. They report tomorrow (Tuesday) after the close?
Daily Archives: Monday, February 4, 2019
Closed Early URI Puts / Sold NFLX Calls
#shortputs
$URI BTC 2/15 105 puts at .10. STO at 2.30. Thank you @fuzzballl
#shortcalls
$NFLX STO 2/8 155 at 1,70 (Covered)
WTW
#LongCalls #LEAPS – One fill today on a batch of my many over-writes on this one…
Bought to Close WTW FEB 8 2019 36.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .75)
One more…
#VIXIndicator one more day with a $VIX close below 16.47 and we have an Upside Warning. I think today’s action foretells we are headed that way.
SPX roll
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte My third attempt at a long condor is the first losing one. Looks like the Feb 4th one will expire worthless. We’ll see how things play out through tomorrow if an Upside Warning hits, and proceed accordingly for the Feb 6th expiry.
I also backed out of this roll trade with a profit, as it could get steamrolled on the call side. I’ll look to sell a put spread to replace it.
BTC $SPX Feb 14th (monthly) 2600/2620/2760/2780 #CondorRoll for 3.95. Sold for 6.05 last Wednesday.
Market Tide v3 or updates?
Has anyone heard from Bryan about v3 or other updates? I thought v3 was imminent when he did the last webinar. I haven’t heard anything in a while but I had an email mixup with AlphaShark because I unsubscribed at one time.
#markettide
A TRADE:
CRON STO 2/8/18 25.0 CALLS @1.45 Will buy stock to cover if necessary.
Rolled up some CRON 2/8 CALLS from 21.0 to 23.0, same expiration this morning for a 1.95 debit.
AMZN put spreads
On the thesis that the 50 day moving average will hold as support, sold the following:
$AMZN Feb 15 1590/1580 BuPS @ 2.05
$AMZN Mar 15 1550/1500 BuPS @ 9.60
SPX 1-dte IC
Closed the SPX Feb4 IC from Friday where I added one spread at a time based on Tide
BTC Feb4 2740/2750 BeCS @. 05. STO @.90
BTC Feb4 2670/2665 BuPS @ .05 x3. STO @ .30, .25, .25
BTC Feb4 2680/2675 BuPS @ .05 x1. STO @ .35
Total profit $200
#spx1-dte
GOOGL earnings analysis
#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Thu 10/25/2018 AC -4.90%
Mon 07/23/2018 AC +3.46%
Mon 04/23/2018 AC -3.94%
Thu 02/01/2018 AC -8.22%
Thu 10/26/2017 AC +4.20%
Mon 07/24/2017 AC -4.00%
Thu 04/27/2017 AC +5.12% Biggest UP
Thu 01/26/2017 AC -4.29%
Thu 10/27/2016 AC -1.45%
Thu 07/28/2016 AC +4.47%
Thu 04/21/2016 AC -7.00%
Mon 02/01/2016 AC -8.69% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 4.98%
Bias -2.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1135.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1082.60 to 1187.40
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1078.50 to 1191.50
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.7%): 1036.37 to 1233.63
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPY 21dte IC
Sold Feb25 BuPS 264/262 x2 @ .30. Moved short put to 25 delta due to low vol.
Sold Feb25 BeCS 278/280 @ .28 to complete the IC.
Continuing to build my SPY 21dte positions. Waited for an MT reversal to sell the call side.
#spycraft
Options Bistro 