#fuzzy GILD 70/70 expires this…

#fuzzy

GILD 70/70 expires this week rolled out 2 weeks for 0.48 credit. Cb now 8.95.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 6th 2710/2690 put spreads for 1.10. Selling only a .12 delta put spread. no call spread for tomorrow. This is based on upside warning going into effect. It still carries higher risk, because while an Upside Warning is a pretty sure shot for a move higher, we could always take a dip or a drop first. But I think this is sufficiently OTM to withstand a pullback, if one comes tomorrow.

TQQQ

STO March 15, 59/64 calls spread at .27 cents against my 2021 leaps.

SNAP straddle

#Earnings Bought to Open $SNAP Feb 8th 7 #LongStraddle for 1.03 (partial fill so far, may need to go to 1.04).

Upside Warning coming

#VIXIndicator Here’s the version of the past results I posted back in May. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN of the preceding correction, and the date of the Upside Warning. Please ask any questions you have! (you can click on the chart to see it full screen).

As you can see, the Upside Warning is pretty reliable for at least a couple percentage points higher.

Screen Shot 2018-05-25 at 11.25.28 AM

CMI dbl cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 #DoubleCalendar for .65. (filled at .63 on TOS)

CMI earnings analysis – dbl calendar candidate

#Earnings — This one is a good double calendar candidate because it is cheap to buy. Premium for this Friday is not much lower than premium for next Friday. That gives us a pretty good range of profit; a range almost as wide as the max moves.

$CMI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Oct. 30, 2018 BO +2.29%
July 31, 2018 BO +4.08%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.11%
Feb. 6, 2018 BO -2.33%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -1.92%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.64% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +6.09%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +3.06%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.32%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO -0.62%
May 3, 2016 BO +1.77%
Feb. 4, 2016 BO +7.62% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.65%
Bias 0.50%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 148.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 142.54 to 155.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 143.36 to 154.24
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.6%): 137.46 to 160.14

#shortputs MGM On June 18,…

#shortputs MGM

On June 18, sold a July 20, 30 put for .43, rolled it 7 times, closed today and made .95.

TQQQ covered calls

Sold calls against stock that I was put from a short 55 put assignment in December.
Mar 15 54 calls @ 1.35.

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – Going Iceman style figuring no huge volatility spikes this week…then have a month to sell against the free short calls.

Sold UVXY FEB 8 2019 54.0 Calls / Bought UVXY MAR 15 2019 90.0 Calls @ .02 credit

SPX put spread

#SPXcampaign This is based solely on the Upside Warning we will get at today’s close, barring a disaster.

Sold $SPX Feb 20th 2725/2700 put spreads for 8.40.

I’m not selling any call spreads, and I’ll probably buy one. I’m not yet sure about tomorrow’s #SPX1dte. Not seeing much premium.

SNAP earnings analysis – straddle candidate

#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP (the only UP)
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 19.51%
Bias -5.92%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 6.82 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 5.75 to 7.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 5.49 to 8.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 3.58 to 10.06

Cost of a straddle is about 1.10. The AVG move has been 1.38. Nice low risk straddle candidate.

Open for requests on other symbols.

SPX 1dte

sold 2690/2695 BuPS expiring 2/6/2019 for $20.00

#earnings EA Sold March 15,…

#earnings EA

Sold March 15, 80/100 strangle for 2.89.

SPY 21dte IC update

Quick update on SPY 21dte IC strat. I’m rolling put credit spreads up as they close for .05. Converting call spreads to back ratios and flies when they are close to being breached. Too many trades to capture here but strat is up $225 since I started it 17 days ago. First layer is Feb 8. All layers are 2x per side. I’ll know soon how well this is working. So far, it’s a ton of work for peanuts but peanuts add up over time.

#spycraft

#shortstrangles BMY Sold March 15,…

#shortstrangles BMY

Sold March 15, 45/55 strangle for 1.42.

#earnings #closing BA Jan. 29…

#earnings #closing BA

Jan. 29 sold Feb. 15, 335/340/390/395 IC for 1.31, bought yesterday for 2.55, loss of about $125.

WYNN

Rolled WYNN Feb 15 125 Call to March 15 130 Call for 0.43 credit. This is against my long Jan 2021 125 Call. #leaps.

TQQQ

STO March 15, 55/60 call spread @ .60 against my leaps in 2021

SPX 1-dte IC

Building an SPX 1dte position throughout the day. First trade is a ccs based on Theo 2731 gravity point, too many up days, other possible one or two day dampers. Adding trades as I take them.
STO SPX Feb6 2755/2760 BeCS @ .45 x1
STO SPX Feb6 2705/2700 BuPS @ .30 x2. Didn’t get the pullback after PMI/ISM that I expected.
STO SPX Feb6 2760/2765 BeCS @ .35 x1. This converts one 10w spread for .80 credit
STO SPX Feb6 2705/2700 BuPS @ .30 x1. Willing to go up to 8 BuPS.
STO SPX Feb6 2705/2700 BuPS @ .60 x1. 4 pcs total
Flied off the risk on the call spread for 2.30 debit. New position SPX Feb6 2745/2755/2565 call fly.

Update: BuPS x4 closed at .05 for $100 total profit.

Don’t want short risk tomorrow due to VIX upside warning potential at the close today.

#spx1-dte

REGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%
Aug. 4, 2016 BO -1.80%
May 5, 2016 BO +4.73%
Feb. 9, 2016 BO -6.28% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 3.36%
Bias 0.87%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 425.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 403.84 to 446.16
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 410.73 to 439.27
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 395.29 to 454.71

Open for requests on other symbols.

DATA earnings analysis

#Earnings $DATA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Nov. 6, 2018 AC +15.35% Biggest UP
Aug. 2, 2018 AC -6.64%
May 2, 2018 AC +6.58%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +8.97%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC -9.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +9.02%
May 3, 2017 AC +6.12%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC +14.66%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -12.11%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC -5.67%
May 5, 2016 AC -11.31%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -49.44% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 12.92%
Bias -2.81%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 119.66 to 144.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 114.94 to 149.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (49.4%): 66.74 to 197.26
Open for requests on other symbols.