Expirations SPX 1 DTE

#spx1dte
Expired
$SPX 2/6 2675/2650/2760/2775 STO at .80
$SPX 2/6 2710/2690 BUPS STO 1.05 Thank you @jeffcp66

WYNN

Rolled my breached 15 Mar 130 Calls that I rolled into yesterday out to 18 April 135 Calls for $0.25 credit. This is against my Jan 2021 125 Calls….#Leaps

SPY 21dte ladder strat

SPY 21 dte ladder strat
I’m switching from ICs to Risk Reversals during this period of low volatility.
STO Feb27 267/265 BuPS @ 31 x2. BTO Feb27 276/278 BuCS @.67 x1. Goal is for credit to cover debit.
Opened a portfolio-style hedge in SPY to mitigate losses on the long side.

#spy

#earnings #shortstrangles TWTR Sold March…

#earnings #shortstrangles TWTR
Sold March 15, 28/42 strangle for 1.16

SPX 1-dte expiring

#SPX1dte $SPX Feb 6th 2710/2690 put spreads expiring worthless. Sold yesterday for 1.10.

Earnings trades

#Earnings Bought to Open $FEYE Feb 8th 18.5 #LongStraddle for 1.81. Need a 9.7% move, which is the 12-quarter average.
Bought to Open $MPC Feb08/Feb15 67.5 #DoubleCalendar for .65.

#fuzzy MU STC the 35/35…

#fuzzy
MU STC the 35/35 for 7.38 credit. Total loss of 6.92 but I am now out of my biggest losers. It could have been much worse, it was down 25+ points at one point.

Everything left is solidly in the green EXPE, GILD, XBI.

Also today is the anniversary of the SVXY implosion and my biggest trading losses ever. While I still have a long way to go to break even on cost basis and even further to hit all time highs, the tactics we have been developing since then have been account savers for fixing bad trades. Thanks everyone for the input and by all of us trying new techniques I think we are all able to handle volatility better and even profit more from it. Keep up the good work!

At least 2 accounts are about to hit all time highs, 4 to go.

I have a bunch of cash now and will be adding some trades tomorrow.

EA puts

The selling momentum seems to have subsided and the stock is off its lows of the day. IV still elevated but falling fast so I want to capture some of that. Sold $EA Mar 15 75 puts @ 1.41. Delta 24.

FEYE earnings analysis

#Earnings $FEYE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 30, 2018 AC +9.73%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -1.91%
May 2, 2018 AC -9.70%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +9.34%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -10.32%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +0.74%
May 2, 2017 AC +12.85% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -15.72%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +12.07%
Aug. 4, 2016 AC -12.05%
May 5, 2016 AC -19.02% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 11, 2016 AC -3.30%

Avg (+ or -) 9.73%
Bias -2.27%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 18.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 16.45 to 20.05
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 16.47 to 20.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 14.78 to 21.72

Open for requests on other symbols.

CMG earnings analysis

#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.43%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC -2.92%

Avg (+ or -) 7.70%
Bias -0.74%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 521.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 484.07 to 557.93
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 480.89 to 561.11
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 393.67 to 648.33

Open for requests on other symbols.

Volatility bet

Bot VXXB Mar8 34/30/38 broken fly @ 1 x3. Betting on volatility to continue falling for a bit.
#volatility

Upside Warning performance metrics

#VIXIndicator Because I’m becoming an Excel geek, I made a new chart measuring a performance metric for the Upside Warning. This shows the rise we have gotten from past Upside Warnings in relation to how much the SPX had already recovered before the Warning hit. For instance, the upper-left-most dot represents a 32.2% rise in SPX AFTER the UpW; the UpW hit after SPX had recovered only 26% of its drop (horizontal axis).

I drew the sloppy red line showing the general trend: the less we have recovered from the correction when the UpW hit, the higher we can expect the rise to be after the UpW. Although the red line shows a trend, you can see that most are clustered in the same general area.

And for comparison today, we had recovered 65.5% at the close yesterday, when the UpW hit. (high 2940, low 2351, 20% drop. Close yesterday was 2737, which means we regained 65.5% of the drop).

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 8.50.27 AM

MU rolling

From Mar 15 33/42 short strangle, rolled the 33 puts up to 39 (delta 30) for 1.00 credit. Position is now a 39/42 strangle. Total premium taken in now 2.92.

#shortcallspreads TSLA Channeling my inner-Iceman,…

#shortcallspreads TSLA

Channeling my inner-Iceman, sold February 22, 350/360 for 1.02

#shortputs VXXB TastyTrade idea-sold March…

#shortputs VXXB

TastyTrade idea-sold March 15, 24/31 put spread for 1.15

Earnings trades, CMI, SNAP, DECK partially closed

#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Sold to close partial $CMI Feb08/Feb15 149 dbl cal for 1.20. Waiting for price to move closer to my strike to close more. Bought yesterday for .65

#LongStraddle Sold to close partial $SNAP Feb 8th 7 calls for 1.75. Watching for a move higher. Straddles bought yesterday for 1.03.

#IronCondor Bought to close partial $DECK Feb 15th 105/110/145/150 condors for .50. Sold Thursday for .86.

NVDA

STC Feb 8 142/144 Calls 1.90 #supercharger
BTO 1-31 $1.03
STC Feb 8 145/147 1.75
BTO 2-1 $1.03
Still open BUPS Feb 8 145/143 sold $.40 2-4-2019

VIX upside trades

Bot QQQ Mar 8 175c, SPY 277.5c, IWM 154c. First small layer.
Trading very carefully in case the rally doesn’t materialize.

Added another layer of SPY, QQQ, and IWM calls. Same strikes. Better price. Will hedge with VIX calls near the close if the downside wins today.
#vixindicator