#fuzzy EXPE, after the huge…


EXPE, after the huge gap up after hours, 9 points yesterday it was up only 3 around lunch time today. My short 126 puts that were 4.75 and short 120 puts were at 1.75 both crushed to pennies. My leaps maintained their values. After several months of adjusting out for 16.23 and 13.97 credits. Cost basis was 9.43.

Some days lucky is better than good and I will take it. This was a huge winner after being flat since Oct.

Now I have a bunch of cash and will look for trades over the weekend for Monday.

Expiration / Closed Early BA BUPS and GS BECS / TSLA BECS / NFLX Sell Calls

$NFLX 355 Short call (Covered)
$DATA 115/145 Strangle Earnings trade STO at 2.56. Thank you @jeffcp66 for the data on $DATA.

Closed Early
$BA BTC 2/15 372.50/377.50 BUPS at .20. STO at 1.38 on 1/31 after earnings. Thesis the airplane company would stay up.
$GS BTC 2/15 205/215 BECS at .05. STO at 1.75 on 1/22

$TSLA STO 3/15/2019 335/325 BECS at 3.00 Bridget at OMM
$NFLX STO 2/15 350 calls at $6.00

Upside Warning pullbacks

#VIXIndicator Since we’re in this pullback I looked back at other times we had a signficant pullback (more than 1%) after an Upside Warning fires. The chart below shows all of the instances since 1999.

Two of them resulted in no new highs, and we dropped significantly before the Upside Warning was technically canceled (the two rows with red in the right-most column). The other times all eventually went higher after the dip.

The center columns show the move 1-day, 2-days, etc, after the UpW. The right-hand columns show the number of days from the UpW to the new SPX high, and the percentage move to get there.

Also note that other than one time last April, this hasn’t happened any other time since 2011.

For me, the $VIX seems pretty unmoved by this week’s volatility and I still think we have higher to go before any major pullback.

Screen Shot 2019-02-08 at 1.29.08 PM

SPX 1-dte IC

Sold Feb 11 2650/2645 BuPS, 4@.50, 2@.45, and 2 @.30. Total credit $350
Sold Feb 11 2735/2740 BeCS @ .25 x4. Total credit $100

#OptionsExpiration Only a few that…

Only a few that I didn’t have to roll. Some just barely expired
OLED 111.00/112.00 Calls – short side of diagonal spreads
TNA 58.00/59.00/60.00 Calls – short side of diagonal spreads
TSLA 335.00/340.00 Calls – short side of diagonal spreads
DUST 20.50 Covered Calls

OLED Rollup

to avoid possible assignment tonight,
Bought to close OLED 02/08/2019 110.00 Covered Calls/Sold OLED 02/15/2019 116.00 Covered Calls @ 0.25 Credit.
Took a gain on the 110 calls(sold them at 0.71 on a rollup last week) and the new strike is right at my average cost for the stock

NUGT Rollup – last one

Bought to close NUGT 02/08/2019 20.00 Calls/ Sold NUGT 02/15/2019 21.00 Calls @ 0.10 Credit + a 1.00 point higher strike.