#fuzzy EXPE, after the huge…


EXPE, after the huge gap up after hours, 9 points yesterday it was up only 3 around lunch time today. My short 126 puts that were 4.75 and short 120 puts were at 1.75 both crushed to pennies. My leaps maintained their values. After several months of adjusting out for 16.23 and 13.97 credits. Cost basis was 9.43.

Some days lucky is better than good and I will take it. This was a huge winner after being flat since Oct.

Now I have a bunch of cash and will look for trades over the weekend for Monday.

Expiration / Closed Early BA BUPS and GS BECS / TSLA BECS / NFLX Sell Calls

$NFLX 355 Short call (Covered)
$DATA 115/145 Strangle Earnings trade STO at 2.56. Thank you @jeffcp66 for the data on $DATA.

Closed Early
$BA BTC 2/15 372.50/377.50 BUPS at .20. STO at 1.38 on 1/31 after earnings. Thesis the airplane company would stay up.
$GS BTC 2/15 205/215 BECS at .05. STO at 1.75 on 1/22

$TSLA STO 3/15/2019 335/325 BECS at 3.00 Bridget at OMM
$NFLX STO 2/15 350 calls at $6.00

Upside Warning pullbacks

#VIXIndicator Since we’re in this pullback I looked back at other times we had a signficant pullback (more than 1%) after an Upside Warning fires. The chart below shows all of the instances since 1999.

Two of them resulted in no new highs, and we dropped significantly before the Upside Warning was technically canceled (the two rows with red in the right-most column). The other times all eventually went higher after the dip.

The center columns show the move 1-day, 2-days, etc, after the UpW. The right-hand columns show the number of days from the UpW to the new SPX high, and the percentage move to get there.

Also note that other than one time last April, this hasn’t happened any other time since 2011.

For me, the $VIX seems pretty unmoved by this week’s volatility and I still think we have higher to go before any major pullback.

Screen Shot 2019-02-08 at 1.29.08 PM

SPX 1-dte IC

Sold Feb 11 2650/2645 BuPS, 4@.50, 2@.45, and 2 @.30. Total credit $350
Sold Feb 11 2735/2740 BeCS @ .25 x4. Total credit $100

SPX 1-dte IC

Feb 8 positions all closed for .05. Total profit $362. Did not defend the put credit spread with 2670 short puts.


HIIQ STO 2/15/19 39.0 PUT @4.80 One week to expiration. Margin used $605.00. If it works, it is almost a 75% return on my investment. It’s ATM.

SPX 1 die

#SPX1dte Expiring today : $SPX Feb 8th 2630/2655-2730/2755 condors, sold yesterday for .90

Sold to Open $SPX Feb 11th 2635/2655-2730/2745 condors for .80. Yes, this is broken-wing as I had to make the call side narrower because the 2750 spike has insufficient volume. (IV: 8.33%, SPX: 2700)