Final trades and expirations

#Earnings Sold to Close $VMW #DoubleCalendar final lots for 2.36 and 2.03. Bought for 1.23 yesterday. Avg close price 2.62.

$SPLK splunked out… the only time profit was available was first 5 minutes of the day. Bought for 1.20 yesterday.

Expiring:
$SPX 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
$AZO 860/855 put spreads. Call side closed for .35 on Wednesday. Condor sold for 2.28 on Monday.
$SQ 85 calls, sold for 1.08 on Wednesday.

Lottery tickets for next week:
$BUD 75 long puts
$MSTR 58 and 54 long puts

Closing NUGT short calls

Bought to close $NUGT Jun 21 35 calls @ .35. Sold for 1.01 on 1/30 and 1.20 on 2/20.
Taking around 70% of the profit available, 3 1/2 months early. Who knows what can happen between now and then. I’m out of NUGT completely now so will look to fade another big spike in gold/miners when it happens.

#earnings #assignment AAPL In December…

#earnings #assignment AAPL
In December I was assigned shares on 3 different trades from post earnings put spreads as AAPL went from 220 down to 145 from late October to the December market sell off, my timing being impeccable. Fortunately they were put spreads and the long puts provided significant support. I sold the last of the shares after selling covered calls, actually making a little on each set of shares. Whew

Econ calendar for week of 3/4/19

#Jobs report for February announced Friday, 8:30am ET

Screen Shot 2019-03-01 at 10.52.28 AM
Screen Shot 2019-03-01 at 10.52.28 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=4&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

CRM earnings analysis

#Earnings — $CRM reports Monday at the close. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves are not significantly different)

Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27%
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC +4.13%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC +11.03% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 3.75%
Bias 2.36%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 153.49 to 174.51
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 157.86 to 170.14
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 145.91 to 182.09

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff, do you have earnings…

Jeff, do you have earnings data for CRM?

SPX 1-dte, altered

#SPX1dte I’m still in the early stages of this strategy, and I’m testing ways to vary things up based on market conditions. IV for Monday’s options is only 6.83%, which I think is the lowest I’ve seen this year. Selling the standard .06 delta condor isn’t worth the risk (too cheap). This is when I have gone LONG in the past with mixed success. Today I’m trying a risk/reversal set-up. Mondays have been bullish lately, and in general the market feels pretty stuck in a range, so I don’t fear a big drop yet.

Bought to open $SPX March 4th 2820/2830 cal spreads for .45 (long delta .06, SPX 2795)
Sold to Open $SPX March 4th 2770/2750 put spreads for .75 (short delta .11, SPX 2796)

If nothing happens, I’ll make .30. But hopefully we’ll have an early rally toward my call spread and I can close for a profit while put spread expires.