SHOP earnings analysis

#Earnings — $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves were similar, with a smaller range, meaning extreme 1-day moves are typically faded over the following days)

Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
May 4, 2016 BO -3.67%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO +9.12%

Avg (+ or -) 6.92%
Bias 2.96%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 177.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.33 to 194.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 164.74 to 189.26
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 155.71 to 198.29