#SPXcampaign Doesn’t seem we will be pushing much higher this week…
Sold $SPX June 18th 2800/2825 call spreads for 2.05. These expire Monday.
Author Archives: Jeff
RH and TQQQ
#Earnings BTC $RH (1) June 15th 146 call for 7.00. I sold 5 strangles for 1.75 on Monday. I closed the 90 puts for .05 on Tuesday, now I’ve closed my first call. I’ll be out completely by the close tomorrow and then start the roll process, going with strangles to recoup my average exit cost.
BTC $TQQQ June 29th 56 puts for .50. Sold on June 5th for 1.15. Since I sold more puts yesterday I didn’t want to wait for these to get cheaper.
Loading shared chart
I’m blanking… how do I load a shared chart into my TOS if I have a “tos.mx” url?
Rolling a mat
#PieTrades Closed $AMAT June 15th 51.5 call for .09. Sold last Friday for .60.
Looking to sell a June 22nd call today or tomorrow.
SPX trade
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX June 15th 2775/2750 put spreads for 2.05. Sold last week for 7.20.
Since this was bumping against 7.oo at the close last night, I tracked it this morning and got out on the up move. With one day until expiration this one can crush me quickly.
Up, down, or sideways?
#Market @fibwizard — what is the #FWReversalWarning telling you this morning?
SQ calls sold
#CoveredCallCampaign Sold both #CoveredCalls and #SyntheticCoveredCall
Sold $SQ July 13th 66.5 call for 1.86
Sold $SQ July 13th 67 call for 1.60
Market ends weakly, TQQQ calls sold
#Market #LEAPs Not a good end to the day… are we really surprised or freaked out by interest rates? Or is this market just not getting back through 2800 for the rest of the year? We are now in the fifth month of a market that cannot rally like we saw it do so often in 2016/2017. Stuck again in a Downside Warning that goes more up than down, but apparently means there is no follow through on rallies.
Missed fills on the bounce so got stuck selling calls near the lows. I don’t want to be stuck with short puts on this without selling calls as well.
Sold $TQQQ July 6th 64 calls for 1.35.
Fed Raises Rates
BREAKING: Federal Reserve raises rateshttps://t.co/PU1jg9b176 pic.twitter.com/icApxTHXyx
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) June 13, 2018
SQ and TQQQ rolls
#LEAPs #CoveredCallCampaign I had call strikes breached on both of these today.
Closed $TQQQ June 29th 62.5 calls for 2.15. Sold for 1.20 last Wednesday.
Sold TQQQ July 6th 59 puts for 1.25 as a partial #StrangleRoll. I will sell call side at new highs.
Stopped $SQ June 29th 63.5 call for 2.23. Sold for 1.60 last Wednesday.
Stopped $SQ July 6th 63.5 call for 2.39. Sold for 1.77 on June 5th.
Stopped $SQ July 6th 63 call for 2.49. Sold for 1.40 last month.
Sold SQ July 13th 60 puts for 1.34 and 1.40, part of a #StrangleRoll. Will sell calls at new highs.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
Closed on GTC order: $SPX June 15th 2720/2695 put spreads for .25. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 6.70 on June 5th… call side was previously stopped.
Sold $SPX July 13th 2685/2660 put spreads for 1.60.
AAPL calls closed
#CoveredCallCampaign
Closed on GTC order: $AAPL June 15th 195 #CoveredCalls for .25. Sold for 2.35 last month.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX June 29th 2575/2550 put spreads for .30. Sold for 1.70 on May 31st.
PYPL call sold
#LEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCall
Sold $PYPL Jul 13th 88 call for 1.44 (against long Jan 2019 100 calls)
You Are That
Not trading much today, catching up with my bookkeeping and watching all of your posts. This song came on the radio and always makes my foot tap. It was one of the early videos around the year MTV went on the air in the early 80’s. The junior-high Jeff used to sit in the basement and watch MTV all day. Turn it up…
Is RH halted?
Anyone else seeing the last tick is at 9:59 ET?
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign As I posted on Friday I am scaling back on this strategy, at least until I can clear the decks and regroup.
I’ve decided to sell half my normal amounts for the time being. I will however, add extra longs when we get an Upside Warning.
Today my stop levels were breached on my remaining call spreads… although I did add a new one this morning. Last week I stopped several calls and added a couple ATM put spreads, which are helping recoup a chunk of change.
Sold $SPX July 13th 2870/2895 call spreads for 1.65
Closed on GTC order: $SPX June 15th 2700/2675 put spreads for .40. Sold for 5.25 on May 24th.
Looking to close call spreads on any pullback, will post below.
RH earnings
#Earnings This is one of the most difficult earnings trades to nail… More often it shoots much higher, but then it has been known to reverse sharply and gobble up longs. Premium is thus quite elevated… selling a strangle over 20% OTM on both sides…. Stock is currently pretty extended to upside and the put side is comfortably down near the 200 ema.
Sold $RH June 15th 90/146 strangles for 1.75 (calls are highest available strike)
Biggest UP move: 49.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -28.6%, Average move: 14.6%. My strikes are +24.5% and -23.3% OTM
Econ Calendar for week of 6/11/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated
AMAT called sold
#PieTrades Not a great week for $AMAT…. last covered call got breached so I stopped it, but didn’t get a new one on before the drop.
Sold AMAT June 15th 51.5 call for .60
YY roll
#Earnings #Rolling
BTC $YY June 8th 115 put for 5.25. Sold for 1.80 on Tuesday
Sold YY July 6th 110 put for 5.50. Moved down 5 points and got an extra .25.
Glad I wasn’t paying much attention on Tuesday or I probably would have sold more than one. I also got filled on a 110 for .85, trying to see if I can let that one expire.
AAPL put
#CoveredCallCampaign
I know this is a strategy for selling calls against stock, but my love for #ShortStrangles makes me want to take advantage of weakness…
Sold $AAPL July 6th 185 put for 1.70. Already long stock and short calls at 195 and 197.5.
Puts sold
#LEAPs Selling some puts on weakness. I’m basically strangling these long LEAP and #CoveredCallCampaign stocks… kind of an adjustable strangle after having to roll some breached calls.
Sold $PYPL July 6th 83 put for 1.25
Sold $SQ July 6th 58 put for 1.20
Sector swap?
#Market Financials ($XLF) got off their ass yesterday and are up again today, but tech ($XLK) is tumbling. Seems that these rallies can’t get everyone to join the party at the same time.
SPX
#SPXcampaign I’m getting pretty torn up on the call side, in triage. I can say I am reconsidering my entire approach. After a couple of good years of SPX spread trading, it simply has not been working for the last 10 months. The Upside Warning works great, but it usually comes too late, and the Downside is too unreliable and prone to head fakes.
My goal was always to build a strategy that can follow rules and roll when necessary. But the market has revealed its ability to whipsaw like no time since the 2008 crash. #SPXcampaign is not sustainable, or at least, selling call spreads is not sustainable.
I have already been working with LEAP and Covered Call strategies, so I’m at a point I need to reassess whether to continue SPX trading, or change it dramatically and make it a smaller part of my portfolio.
I’m not posting my SPX trades today, but I can answer any specific questions you have about trades you’re in. Mainly, I have about 6 call spreads that all passed their stop levels between yesterday afternoon’s surge higher and today’s open. I am selling some put spreads, but not enough (yet) to make up the losses. I will be still watching for the Upside Warning and getting more aggressive, but mostly with shorter term spreads as I can’t trust it to last.
VIX plummets again
#VIXIndicator We’ve seen this movie before, but each time it happens at a lower VIX level. Today should be the second close below the PREVIOUS 78.6% Fib line, but we need to close at 11.01 or lower to cancel this current warning. Because we are in the third Downside warning without an Upside one, the normal levels may be out of whack. It certainly looks as if we’re ready to cruise higher but we’ve been fooled many times this year.
SQ calls sold
In $SQ I am both long stock for the #CoveredCallCampaign and also long Jan 2019 60 calls for the #LEAPs strategy. So selling short-term calls against both positions.
Today:
Sold SQ June 29th 63.5 #CoveredCall for 1.60
Sold SQ July 6th 65 #SyntheticCoveredCalls for 1.65
SPX long calls sold
#SPXcampaign I built this one up to a triple-sized position, back when we thought maybe an Upside Warning was coming. Now they’re close to expiration with less chance. Taking off 1/3 now at about breakeven.
Sold $SPX June 15th 2825/2850 call spreads for .70. Acquired in May for .743, avg price. A double position still remains.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX June 14th 2590/2565 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.65 on May 17th.
TQQQ calls
#LEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Missed the highs at the open, so selling now: $TQQQ June 29th 62.5 calls for 1.20
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold after the closing bell yesterday: $SPX July 6th 2830/2855 call spreads for 1.65.
Today I’m just letting time decay do its thing. I may sell something if we reach significant highs or lows.
TQQQ rolling
#LEAPs
BTC $TQQQ June 22nd 60.83 calls for 1.75. Sold for 1.20 yesterday.
Sold TQQQ June 29th 56 puts for 1.15.
Will sell new calls at new highs.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 6th 2625/2600 puts for 1.60
SPX stop and roll
#SPXcampaign Today’s high was, of course, just above my ATM stop level for this one.
Stopped: $SPX June 8th 2750/2775 call spreads for 8.55. Sold last week for 3.25.
#CondorRoll: Sold $SPX June 15th 2695/2720/2785/2810 condors for 6.70, 1.33x position size.
SQ and PYPL LEAPs
#LEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Sold short-term calls against 2019 long leap calls. Lots of bullish movement has me #Rolling a lot.
Yesterday:
Sold $SQ July 6th 63.5 call for 1.77
Sold $PYPL July 6th 87 call for 1.15
Today:
Closed PYPL June 15th 83 call for 2.00. Sold for 1.25 last Thursday.
Closed SQ June 22nd 61.5 calls for 2.02. Sold for 1.40 on Friday.
Will look to replace these today.
Also gotta roll $TQQQ calls I sold yesterday, already breached.
YY earnings
#Earnings This one has not been a big mover on earnings, except for the last two quarters, which account for its two biggest moves, up and down. I’m selling a few puts, but beware, it could be over-extended.
Sold $YY June 8th 115 put for 1.80. May add a couple 110 puts, too.
Biggest UP move: 24.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -12.3%, Average move: 5.1%. This trade is -5.9% OTM.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Stopped $SPX June 22nd 2800/2825 call spreads for 3.85. Sold for 1.80 last Wednesday.
I’m using a 4.00 stop on standard campaign call spreads, which this breached right after the open, so I got out on the pullback. I’ll consider how to roll tomorrow.
TQQQ Leap call sold
#LongLEAPs Sold $TQQQ Jan 2020 83.33 call for 6.30.
Today, as $QQQ just notched an all time closing high, you can see the TQQQ is about 5% below its highs. This is due to the compounding effects of a 3x leveraged product. The same force that drags NUGT, DUST, GUSH, DRIP, and others downward will drag on TQQQ. Because we’re in a long-term bull market, it is harder to see this force in the chart, but today’s high gives you a good snapshot when comparing to QQQ. Thus, I like selling farther out 83.33 call against my long 2020 50 calls. I just sold 1 today (against the 3 longs) and can add more at better prices or different strikes. I am ALSO still selling short term calls, so this will throw my deltas out of whack, but I’m really looking at each of the short calls separately and less at the full picture. Upside risk on a ContangoETF is not difficult to manage.
TQQQ roll
#LEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCall
Closed $TQQQ June 8th 59.17 calls for 1.00. Sold May 14th for 1.16 (effective price)
#Rolling Sold June 22nd 60.83 calls for 1.20.
May also add short puts if we get any pullback.
BABA roll
#CoveredCallCampaign #CoveredCalls
Closed $BABA June 8th 207.5 covered call for 2.65. Sold in strangle-roll for 5.28 on May 10th.
#StrangleRoll Sold BABA July 6th 190/220 strangle for 3.37.
AAPL covered call
#CoveredCallCampaign #CoveredCalls
Sold $AAPL July 6th 197.5 covered call for 1.90.
Econ Calendar for week of 6/4/18
Be sure to periodically click Home/REFRESH to keep Bistro features updated.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 29th 2610/2585 put spreads for 1.55.
Stopped SPX June 15th 2735/2760 call spreads for 11.45. Sold as a #ReverseRoll for 4.40 on Tuesday.
Looking to roll into a condor.
SQ trades
#PieTrades Sold $SQ June 22nd 61.5 #syntheticcoveredcalls for 1.40
#CoveredCallCampaign #CoveredCalls
BTC SQ June 15th 60 call for 1.41. Sold for 1.40 on May 16th
#Rolling
Sold SQ June 29th 57.5 put for 1.50
Sold SQ July 6th 63 covered call for 1.40
COST earnings closed
#Earnings Closed $COST June 1st 195 puts for .16. Sold yesterday for 1.583 (avg price)
Pie, CC, & Leap trades
#PieTrade BTC $AMAT June 1st 51.5 call for .12. Sold for .75 on Tuesday.
Sold June 8th 52.5 call for .55.
#CoveredCallCampaign #coveredcalls
BTC $BABA June 8th 190 put for .25. Sold in a #StrangleRoll for 5.28 on May 10th.
Sold $FB June 29th 200 call for 1.90.
#LEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCall
BTC $TQQQ June 8th 52.5 puts for .20. Sold in a #StrangleRoll on May 14th for 2.10 (effective price)
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 29th 2815/2840 call spreads for 1.60.
Also, closed on GTC order: June 8th 2600/2575 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on May 11th.
May Jobs Report
#Jobs Strong month, with lowest unemployment rate since 2000.
+223,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 188K expected
Unemployment down to 3.8%, lowest since April 2000
U6 unemployment at 7.6%, down by .2
Wages up 0.3%, reflecting 2.7% annualized
Labor force participation 62.7%, down 0.1
Apr revised down from 164K to 159K
Mar revised up from 135K to 155K
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Don’t want to leave this risk out there with VIX moving higher.
Closed $SPX June 1st 2675/2650 put spreads for .70. Sold for 4.40 on May 10th as a #ReverseRoll.
FB call roll
#CoveredCallCampaign Closed $FB June 8th 190 call for 3.60. Sold for 2.75 on May 10th.
Sold June 29th 185 put for 2.00. Will sell a call at new highs.
COST earning
#Earnings Sold to Open $COST June 1st 195 puts for 1.55. Biggest UP move: 3.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.0%, Average move: 2.8%. This trade is -1.8% OTM. This is a bullish trade. I’ll probably convert to a long position if my puts go ITM.
Earnings ULTA and COST
#Earnings Bullish or neutral on ULTA, bullish on COST.
Trying the $ULTA June 1st 230/270 strangle for 3.00-3.40. No fill yet, backing in. Biggest UP move: 17.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.1%, Average move: 6.6%. Bias +2.55% Strikes are +/-8.0%
FB flying
Breaking out to all time highs. Long stock, plus 190 covered call I will be rolling. Also,
Closed on GTC order: $FB June 8th 180 put for .25. Sold for 2.40 on May 10th.
Yesterday, closed on GTC order: $AAPL June 8th 195 covered call for .20. Sold for 1.75 on May 7th.
Leaping
#LEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCall
I’ve been watching @fuzzballl‘s LEAP plays and thought I’d use a couple of Jan 2019 call positions for the strategy. I’ve already been doing this with $TQQQ long 50 calls. (Jan 2020).
In November and this month, I bought two $PYPL Jan 2019 100 calls for 2.66 average price. These are at a small loss now. I need only .08 per week, so I will be selling 2-4 weeks out.
Today, sold PYPL June 15th 83 call for 1.25. I only sold one for now, will likely do these piecemeal rather than all at once. If I start to acquire a lot of these plays, I may prefer all at once.
In Nov, Dec, and Jan, I bought 4 $SQ Jan 2019 60 calls, 3.52 avg price. These are now more than doubled.
I’ll be selling weeklys against this; orders in to catch the next pop. I need only .11 per week.
I bought these OTM so it’s much easier to cover the cost than the TQQQ ITM call purchase.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX June 29th 2575/2550 put spreads for 1.70.
Decent day for earnings
Perennial favorites: GME, LULU, WDAY, ULTA, COST, VMW
OLED bump again?
Apple is reportedly planning on using OLED screens on new iPhones going forward. Consumers could see a good deal of benefits, according to @robotodd. https://t.co/2UwiadLGJS
— CNBC (@CNBC) May 31, 2018
Classic whipsaw
All things considered, I handled it as best as I can expect, in that I protected myself by closing some bullish spreads, but didn’t panic close positions, leaving a couple ATM/ITM put spreads in place. Now I’m stuck with some underwater call spreads but won’t panic close them… tough part is we are officially under Downside Warning again, which means we could easily collapse in the coming weeks. Below is a chart showing the warnings on the SPX chart… after the 2nd warning, we still had some wild swings. But since then we’ve been squeezing into a tight range. Anyone’s guess, but this third warning could be a head-fake.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX June 8th 2750/2775 for 3.25, as a #ReverseRoll
Sold $SPX June 29th 2800/2825 call spreads for 1.80.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX June 22nd 2610/2585 put spreads for 2.30, with 1.33x-position size. Not much lower on the strikes than the spread this replaces, but it’ll do.
UVXY calls
#VXXGame Yesterday, Sold $UVXY July 20th 20 calls for 1.20.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign These two also got stopped yesterday, orders filling on the end of the day bounce. The May 31st one kinda sucked, since it is much cheaper this morning, but it was too close to expiration to risk a further drop. I am mapping out rolls for everything today… some in calls, some in puts, some in condors.
Stopped: $SPX May 31st 2675/2650 put spreads for 6.50. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 6.70.
Stopped: $SPX Jun 14th 2610/2585 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.65 on May 14th.
New downside warning
#VIXIndicator… for perspective, when this happened on Feb 28th (another warning firing a few days after the previous one had been canceled), the SPX closed at 2713. We hit the low of 2553 on April 2nd, so a full month later. During that month, we also reached a high of 2801.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign STOPPED: $SPX June 22nd 2620/2595 put spreads for 4.10. Sold for 1.70 on Thursday.
Closed on GTC order: SPX June 14th 2810/2835 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.80 on May 15th.
I will probably be stopping a couple more put spreads before the close, especially if no rally develops soon.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign. Closed on GTC order: $SPX June 1st 2750/2775 call spreads for .40. Sold in a #CondorRoll for 8.00 on May 15th.
Dump
Looks like I picked the wrong hour to be away from my desk!
AMAT covered call
#PieTrades #CoveredCalls Sold $AMAT June 1st 52 covered call for .75.
SQ covered call
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $SQ June 29th 61.5 covered call for 1.60
OLED, boom!
iPhone may use their screens… https://seekingalpha.com/news/3359877-universal-display-plus-12_4-percent-iphone-oled-report
Italy this time
#VIXIndicator In pre-market we have a signal on the VIXIndicator which indicates to be wary of new downside risk, this time due to Italy’s political crisis causing a big drop in the Euro. Whether we get a new Downside Warning will depend on the VIX closing price.
Econ Calendar for week of 5/28/18
May jobs report is Friday at 8:30am ET.
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX June 22nd 2795/2820 call spreads for 1.70. No upside warning so I’m still selling both sides of this market.
Upside Warning data
#VIXIndicator Looking less likely we’ll get an Upside Warning today, but in any case here’s an updated version of the chart I posted months ago. The blue bars with numbers on top represent the percentage move UP from the close of an Upside Warning day to the eventual SPX high before another pullback. The numbers at the bottom of each bar are the percentage move DOWN from the preceding correction, and the date of the Upside Warning. Please ask any questions you have! (you can click on the chart to see it full screen)
Squeezing to explode, or collapse?
Interesting look at the VIX chart… I think today’s close will be telling.
Fascinating. Tags on both sides this week. $VIX pic.twitter.com/XpfPoGHlhh
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) May 25, 2018
SPX long calls added
#SPXcampaign Added another batch of long $SPX June 15th 2825/2850 call spreads for .40. I now have a triple-sized position at avg price of .743
It’s a long shot, but no so outlandish as to be called a lottery ticket. I think we’ll get an Upside Warning today which gives us a good shot at a new all-time high on SPX. $RUT is already doing that, and $VIX is telling us these intraday swoons aren’t causing any panic.
