#SPXcampaign After the bell, sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2825/2800 put spreads for 16.90.
Yes, that means I believe the correction will be over by then. But I’ll give it until a week before, Feb 16th. If we’re not above 2825 by then, I will roll it.
Author Archives: Jeff
VIX Indicator and market
#VIXIndicator We got another warning signal today, as VIX closed over 25% above yesterday’s close. The indices ended the day at lows… Monday could be either a big gap down, which may signal the end of the correction, or a bounce, which probably means it should be faded. Either way, I am net short in SPX spreads.
Options Expiration 2/2/18
#OptionsExpiration #Earnings #IronButterly #ShortStrangles #SPXcampaign #CallButterfly
— Expired w/max profit —
$AAPL 177.5 call
$AMZN 1325/1660 strangle
$AMZN 1300/1675 strangle
$EA 110 puts
$FB 175 put
— Expired w/full loss —
$SPX long 2865/2885 call spreads (sad; this closed over 9.00 last Friday… but zero today)
$MCD 177.5/180/182.5 call butterflys
$AMD 12.5/13/13.5 iron butterfly (I lost $10)
— #Assignment —
$AAPL 175 puts, taking stock
$BABA 200 puts, taking stock
$VRTX 167.5 put, taking stock (I closed one put for .60, but forgot to close the other before the bell)
VXX game trades
#VXXGame
Sold $SVXY Sept 75 put for 12.15
Sold $UVXY June 40 call for 2.75
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign #ReverseRoll
Closed $SPX Feb 16th 2710/2685 put spreads for 3.65. Sold for 1.55 on Jan 19th.
Sold Feb 7th 2800/2825 call spreads for 4.10.
I will be net short going into the weekend. Most put spreads have been closed.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign $SPX In chronological order:
Closed $SPX Feb 16th 2800/2775 put spreads for 10.10. Sold for 5.05 on Jan 24th.
Sold March 9th 2630/2605 put spreads for 2.00, 1.5x position size, as a roll.
Closed on GTC order: Feb 15th 2890/2915 call spreads for .40. Sold for 4.50 on Tuesday.
Closed on GTC order: Feb 23rd 2920/2945 call spreads for .20. Sold in a #CondorRoll on Tuesday.
VXX Gamin’
Results are in… Groundhog sees trouble ahead…
What does the Groundhog see?
SPX wavering
#Market Intraday we just made a lower high and a lower low. The groundhog sees more volatility ahead.
AMZN IB closed
#Earnings Closed $AMZN 1410/1450/1490 #IronBitterfly for 22.25. Sold yesterday for 37.05.
Earnings Updates
#Earnings #IronButterfly
Closed $VRTX Feb 2nd 167.5 calls for .55. Looks like we may be basing for the day, so closed the calls and will wait and close the short puts on a bounce.
Closed $AAPL Feb 2nd 162.5 short put for .70. Sold yesterday for 1.65. Looks like I’ll be assigned some stock today.
$AMZN – My strangles will be fine but having to decide when to close the iron butterfly. Right now it has about a $1200 profit but that will slip away if we keep going higher. Watching closely.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign $SPX Lots of action this morning… I wish I’d taken more action to get short when the Downside Warning hit on Monday. Now I’m getting spanked at new lows… could this be a bottom today? That’s the hard question to answer. But unfortunately, I got shook out.
Closed Feb 2nd 2800/2875 put spreads for 6.80. Sold for 2.25 on Wednesday.
Closed Feb 9th 2790/2765 put spreads for 9.10. Sold for 3.90 on Jan 22nd
Closed Mar 2nd 2690/2665 put spreads for 2.80. Sold for 1.65 yesterday.
Sold Feb 16th 2810/2835 call spreads for 10.00.
Sold Mar 2nd 2895/2920 call spreads for 1.85.
Bought Feb 9th 2760/2740 put spreads for 3.80.
It’s almost like a new experience handling a correction since it has been so long since we’ve had one and the #SPXcampaign has changed so much. I’m experiencing the same issue I had with the Upside Warning… I don’t trust my own signals enough!
Depending on how the day ends I have to be pretty careful about how I’m positioned for Monday.
Gap
The opening TICK reading is the lowest we’ve seen since late September of 2016.
January Jobs Report
#jobs With the mega-earnings day and volatility, I totally forgot this was being released this morning.
+200,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs 180K expected
Unemployment holds steady at 4.1%
U6 unemployment up one tenth to 8.2%
Wages up 0.3%, reflecting 2.9% annualized
Labor force participation holds at 62.7%
VRTX, partially closed
#Earnings Yesterday, Sold $VRTX Feb 2nd 160/167.5/175 iron butterflys for 5.59. 3 total.
Today, closed (1) for 2.85. It is sitting dead center now, but it’s still got a day until expiration so the straddle is still worth about 2.80. May close another today, and/or leave them both for expiration.
AMZN strangle added
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Adding a wider, safer strangle that will cover my max loss on the iron butterfly.
Sold $AMZN Feb 2nd 1300/1675 strangle for 4.25.
AAPL earnings
#Earnings Thought I was being sharp by selling $AAPL puts a week before earnings. Sold Feb 2nd 175 puts last week for 4.62 (avg price). Not so sharp in the end. I bought some 155 puts for .29 as a safety net.
Today I sold AAPL Feb 2nd 177.5 call for .65. I’ll add another if premium increases. That’s putting me into a very narrow 2.5 point range for ultimate victory, so I most likely will be rolling or taking assignment of something tomorrow.
EA closed
#Earnings On Tuesday, sold $EA Feb 2nd 110/130 strangles for 127. I’ve now closed all of the short calls, one at a time, avg price .452. Letting the short puts expire.
AMZN Iron butterfly
#Earnings #IronButterfly This one is worth trying each quarter in case AMZN does not move much. Risking 2.95 to make 37.05.
Sold $AMZN 1410/1450/1490 iron butterfly for 37.05. Will profit if AMZN ends tomorrow between 1412.95 and 1487.05.
FB covered call
#CoveredCalls CoveredCallCampaign Now that earnings are finished, returning to selling calls on my long stock.
Sold $FB Feb 23rd 200 covered call for 1.90.
AMZN earnings
#Earnings Sold $AMZN Feb 2nd 1325/1660 #ShortStrangles for 8.00. I think that’s the highest premium I’ve ever seen for a strangle OUTSIDE the maximum moves of the past 12 quarters.
Biggest UP move: 14.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.6%, Average move: 7.2%.
My strikes are +14.5% and -8.6% OTM.
FB closed
#Earnings Bought to close $FB 175/205 strangles for .10. Sold yesterday for 1.52.
BABA dumping
#Earnings It’s down to levels not seen since Tuesday of last week.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Today’s action is not too pretty and it looks like the Downside Warning may hang on the market longer. I’m selling these as hedges against my short put spreads. If we move much in either direction tomorrow, there will be rolling.
Sold $SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 10.40.
Sold $SPX Mar 2nd 2925/2950 call spreads for 1.55.
NFLX flat
#Earnings Closed these two puts as they take up margin and I have retained the majority of premium. These recouped my losses from earnings short calls and left me with a small profit on the trades.
BTC $NFLX Feb 2nd 260 put for .30. Sold for 2.55 on Jan 26th.
BTC $NFLX Feb 16th 240 out for .74. Sold for 3.30 on Jan 23rd.
EA scale out
#Earnings Yesterday sold $EA Feb 2nd 110/130 strangles for 1.25. Just closed one short call for .66. (4 more to go). Scaling out as premium drops.
VRTX earnings
#Earnings This one has not moved much on recent earnings, so doing a neutral #IronButterfly.
Sold $VRTX Feb 2nd 160/167.5/175 IB for 5.75, 5.56, 5.48 (total of 3, avg price 5.597 — I could only get 1 to fill at a time, and kept having to lower my ask).
Biggest UP move: 7.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.9%, Average move: 2.5%.
Risking 2.15 to make 5.59. Breakevens at Friday’s expiration: 161.91 and 173.09, or about +/- 4.3%.
Here are its last 12 earnings moves: -2.1%, -4.4%, 0.7%, 0.2%, 0.0%, 0.2%, 2.7%, 0.3%, 5.1%, 7.8%, -0.4%, -5.9%.
BABA earnings
#Earnings Sold $BABA Feb 2nd 200 puts for 3.60. Biggest UP move: 7.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.8%, Average move: 4.0%. This trade is -2.5% OTM.
This one is a juggernaut that I don’t doubt will hit 1,000 in a few years (maybe just a couple). So if this aggressive trade results in stock assignment, I’m okay with that. -8.8% was its biggest ever down move back in Jan 2015. Since then, its moves down have been fewer and smaller.
FB earnings
#Earnings Sold $FB Feb 2nd 175/205 strangles for 1.52. Also, previous sold and extra 175 put for 1.60.
Biggest UP move: 15.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.6%, Average move: +/- 4.0%. Bias + 1.6%.
My strikes are -7.3% and +8.1% OTM, respectively. The previous 15.5% up move is an outlier from Jan 2016. The second biggest up move was +7.2%
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 2nd 2690/2665 put spreads for 1.65.
We’re still under the Downside Warning, but given recent market trend it seems more likely we’ll go up from here, at least for a day or two. But I’ll be cautious until VIX drops below 11.00.
Pre-market trades
#SPXcampaign Got about half my money back from the put spread purchase and sold another one…
Sold to close $SPX Feb 2nd 2780/2755 put spreads for .95. Bought right after the closing bell yesterday for 2.00.
Sold to OPEN SPX Feb 2nd 2800/2775 put spreads for 2.25
SPX puts bought
#SPXcampaign After a fairly dull afternoon I entered a Feb 2nd put spread after the bell. Couldn’t decide whether to buy or sell it. Then I decided I would sell it, so entered a sell price, and… I bought it. I forgot that I had “BUY” selected. I left it because I’m still net long on SPX so this’ll be a nice double or triple if we gap down again tomorrow.
Bought $SPX Feb 2nd 2780/2755 put spreads for 2.00
Closed SPX day trade
#SPXcampaign As we meander sideways we are mostly making higher highs and higher lows. Hard to tell whether downside is already finished. Since delta on this spread is high, took 1.25 profit and closed it.
Closed $SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 12.70. Sold right after the open for 13.95.
EA earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $EA Feb 2nd 110/130 strangles for 1.27. Leaning on bullish side due to historical performance and trend. Biggest UP move: 13.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.5%, Average move: +/- 5.4%. Bias: +2.35%. My strikes are -7.0% and +9.9% OTM.
Stopped another
#SPXcampaign On the bounce, closed $SPX Feb 23rd 2735/2710 put spreads for 2.80. Sold last Wednesday for 1.60.
If we get another nice dip here, I will be able to sell more rolls.
First roll sold
#SPXcampaign #Rolling Sold $SPX March 2nd 2680/2655 put spreads for 2.05, 1.5x position size, as a roll from stopped Feb 23rd spread.
VXX gamin’
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Feb 16th 16 call for 1.05
Closed $VXX Feb 16th 25 put for .10. Sold for 1.15.
Stopped $VXX Feb 2nd 26 call for 5.35. Sold for 1.35 on 1/23. Will roll to another ITM call at some point.
SPX first moves
#SPXcampaign Stopped $SPX Feb 23rd 2750/2725 for 2.95. Sold yesterday for 1.70. Will roll later when we are down more.
Sold SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 13.95. Maybe only a day trade.
SPX approach
#SPXcampaign The question is, when do we get the bounce? I closed my most endangered put spread yesterday. Only one other was hitting its stop point before the open, so I will roll it down. I may also sell an ITM call spread as a one or two day trade, and perhaps some OTM if I can find good ones.
For the bounce, I want to sell ITM or ATM put spreads. If I miss timing I can grit my teeth through lower prices and wait for the bounce, and roll if necessary. I will likely wait to BUY call spreads until bounce seems clear, and then more with a new Upside Warning.
Bounce could be today or tomorrow, unless we are in for something bigger. With the biggest earnings announcements this week and next, I think it would be tough to go full-on correction now.
Downside Warning triggered
#VIXIndicator Looks like the official $VIX close is 13.84 (also high of the day), which is over 50% higher than the Dec 20th low of 8.90. This activates a Downside Warning, leading to a likelihood of lower prices in the coming days or weeks. Downside Warnings can sometimes be false flags, but most often the are followed by subsequent dips or corrections, either immediately or in the coming days. It also means any bounce this week is more likely to be followed by a drop next week.
Since I recently revised this trigger to be based on closing VIX prices rather than intraday, I am still compiling data for the last 18 years. I may be able to post some more details today, but feel free to ask any questions if you have them.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Feb 2nd 2830/2805 put spreads for 4.60. Sold for 6.75 on 1/23.
The day is not over yet, and even a small bounce will avert a downside warning. But clearing most immediate and highest-striked spread.
Downside Warning?
#VIXIndicator A close above 13.35 would trigger one. Looking to close some put spreads to take some risk off.
FB earnings
#Earnings #CoveredCallCampaign Since I already sold some $AAPL puts last week (should have waited), today I’ll get a head start for $FB on today’s weakness…
Sold $FB Feb 2nd 175 put for 1.60.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2750/2725 put spreads for 1.70.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Feb 23rd 2935/2960 call spreads for 2.75. Sold Friday for 1.60. I hope I can wait for extended highs like Friday afternoon in my next attempt to sell call spreads.
MCD earnings
#Earnings #CallButterfly Beautiful trend and decent fundamental. Playing for the trend to continue and to end the week near 180.
Bought to open $MCD Feb 2nd 177.5/180/182.5 call butterflys for .40. Max risk: .40. Max gain: 2.10. Breakevens: 177.90 and 182.10.
Biggest UP move: 9.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.7%, Average move: +/- 3.2%. Upside bias: +1.3%
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 2nd 2725/2700 put spreads for 1.55. Staying long and strong.
Econ Calendar for week of 1/29/18
Be sure to periodically click “Home/REFRESH” to keep Bistro features updated.
JOBS report is Friday at 8:30am ET.
Options Expiration 1/26/18
Expiring: $ISRG Jan 26th 410/490 #ShortStrangles, sold yesterday for 3.00.
Fourth week of the year, fourth week higher for $SPX. Run with the bulls.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Feb 16th 2920/2945 call spreads for 2.90. Sold this morning of 1.80.
Never fails! Just can’t do anything short in this market. So I lost 1.10 on this one while making about 10.00 on all my eroding put spreads, plus one call spread bought Wednesday for 4.00 and now at 7.25. Today’s action has me doubting what I wrote earlier… it feels more like we need to still grind higher, so I’m going to hold on for another notch up.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Preparing again for a possible pullback. VIX has not been dropping much and we’re getting more signs of consolidation. I remain net long but want to be prepared. So many indicators telling us this thing needs a rest.
Sold $SPX Feb 16th (Friday PM) 2920/2945 call spreads for 1.80.
Sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2935/2960 call spreads for 1.60.
Also, closed on GTC order:
Feb 9th 2660/2635 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Jan 10th.
NFLX put
#Earnings Sold $NFLX Feb 2nd 260 put for 2.55. Makes up for loss on call side from earnings trade. Expires next Friday.
KMB closed
Closed $KMB Jan 26th 120 calls for 1.80. Closed the 111 puts for .05 on Tuesday.
Sold the strangles for 1.05 on Monday.
I may look at another strangle to make back the loss, since premium look decent.
Bailed on AVGO
#ShortStrangles Closed $AVGO Feb 16th 250/290 strangles for 7.40. Sold legs separately for a total of 9.35, so profit of 1.95. Not rolling, I’ll just take profit and wait for earnings in late Feb.
ISRG earnings
#Earnings Sold $ISRG Jan 26th 410/490 strangles for 3.00. Biggest UP move: 8.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.6%, Average move: 4.7%. My strikes are about 8.9% OTM
SPX no more shorts, again
#SPXcampaign After we tested going negative this morning, $CAT bounced off its rollercoaster of a morning and helped nudge the markets higher. $NFLX is going parabolic again, too. My $KMB calls are now underwater; could have closed for a nice profit on Wednesday. So I think we go higher, driven now by earnings.
Closed $SPX Feb 9th 2875/2900 call spreads for 6.00. Sold for 4.50 yesterday. That was my only short hedge on SPX. I also went long with a risk/reversal that’s making me a whole lot more than this 1.50 loss.
AVGO
Nice bounce of 250 area so far. I hold #ShortStrangles Feb 16th 250/290
AAPL add
#Earnings #ShortPuts Added another $AAPL Feb 2nd 175 put for 5.20. The bet is we raise into and after earnings. But if not, I’m okay rolling or taking some stock at 170 cost basis.
FFIV closed
#Earnings Closed $FFIV Jan 26th 130/155 strangles for .16. Sold yesterday for 1.60.
LRCX closed
#Earnings Closed $LRCX Jan 26th 200 puts for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.20.
Earnings trades
#Earnings $FFIV strangles and $LRCX bullish trades look good so far.
SPX risk/reversal
#SPXcampaign I did not catch the bottom but kind of chased as the bounce became clear:
Sold $SPX Feb 16th (Friday PM) 2800/2775 put spreads for 5.05.
Bought SPX Feb 2nd 2865/2885 call spreads for 4.00.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 9th 2875/2900 call spreads for 4.50. Throwing one out there in case this weakness holds up. Also looking to sell an aggressive put spread. I won’t be looking to roll any put spreads unless VIX moves over 12.50 or SPX below 2825.
SVXY put closed
#VXXgame Closed this one with nice profit, giving a nice chunk of buying power back so I can sell something better.
Closed $SVXY Feb 16th 80 put for .61. Sold for 7.35 in a strangle on Nov 15th
LRCX earnings
#Earnings Sold $LRCX Jan 26th 200 puts for 1.20 (now going for more).
Biggest UP move: 8.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -2.8%, Average move: 2.9%. This trade was 5.2% OTM at the time of the fill (stock price was 211.00).
This has only been making small moves down and bigger moves up on earnings. The last time it moved DOWN more than 3% was Oct 2011.
AAPL put sold
#Earnings #ShortPuts Taking advantage of weakness in $AAPL to place an earnings trade early. Release is next Thursday.
Sold AAPL Feb 2nd 175 put for 4.05.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Feb 9th 2650/2625 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Jan 8th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign I have tried since Monday to sell my normal 5-week put spread, but keep missing a fill on the lows, only to see us ratchet higher. Finally just forced a fill. I don’t blame the market. Who wants to be on the other side of being long this market?
Sold $SPX Feb 23rd 2735/2710 put spreads for 1.60.
FFIV earnings
#Earnings Sold $FFIV Jan 26th 130/155 strangles for 1.60.
Biggest UP move: 9.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.0% , Average move: 6.0%.
Expected move: 8.90
My strikes are +/- 8.8% OTM
NUGT and SVXY
#ContangoETFs #VXXGame Following @optioniceman in spirit:
Sold $NUGT Jan 2019 50 call for 5.95, adding to my position.
Sold $SVXY Feb 16th 120/100 put spread for 2.15. Margin cost to sell naked is too steep.
VXX call
#VXXGame #LongPutDiagonals #SyntheticShortStock
Sold $VXX Feb 2nd 26 call for 1.35.
With VXX perpetually headed to zero, I am selling short-term puts AND calls against my Jan 2019 long 25 puts.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Feb 2nd 2830/2805 put spreads for 6.75.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Flubbed this one up… too distracted by earnings trades to get long at the bottom this morning, now I’m chasing.
Closed $SPX Feb 23rd 2900/2925 call spreads for 3.90. Sold for 1.60 yesterday. I have no more call spreads.
I want to sell put spreads and buy call spreads, but hate doing it at all-time-highs.
NFLX mgt
#Earnings Closed last $NFLX Jan 26th 250 call for 5.65.
Sold Feb 16th 240 put for 3.30. I will sell a few more puts over the next week or two.
Closed these to free up margin:
Jan 26th 200 put for .02
Jan 26th 205 put for .03
Options Bistro 