Downside Warning fired
Author Archives: Jeff
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart updated
#VIXIndicator We are set to open with VIX above 16.53, which will fire a Downside Warning. Keep on guard for further volatility in the coming days or weeks.
Econ Calendar week of 10/10/16
Okay, this is much too late to be posting this. I’ve set a weekly reminder so I won’t forget!
SPX call spreads closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 2235/2260 call spreads for .20. Sold last week for 1.40.
VIX Indicator and SPX Charts have been updated
The VIX came within .06 of firing a second signal today. This does not mean that if it had done that, there would be a much greater chance of a correction… it’s just sticking with the rules and trading by them. No Warning yet means remain cautious but continue the #SPXcampaign as normal… sell both call and put spreads, roll if stops are hit, and close for 80-90% of max profit.
SPX condor roll sold
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 1900/1925/2225/2250 iron condors for 2.00. This is a roll from earlier stopped spread, at 1.5x position size.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign This one hit the 3.00 stop level: Bought to close $SPX Nov 4th 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.80. Sold last Friday for 1.85. Will look to roll today or tomorrow.
FB covered puts
#ShortStock #CoveredPuts #Earnings #Rolling some $FB positions…
BTC FB Oct 14th 125 put for .07. Sold for 1.10 on Sept 16th.
BTC FB Dec 90 put for .11. Sold for 2.68 on June 15th.
STO FB Oct 28th 127 put for 1.11
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 2230/2255 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 27th.
DUST call
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DUST Oct 14th 55 call for 1.25. Expires this Friday.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2156.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign In Pre-Market, bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2185/2210 call spreads for .80. Sold for 7.60 on Sept 28th. I’m nearing the end of my ITM rolling, recouping all losses from a few spreads that went completely ITM over the summer.
Boring day…
…but interesting that VIX has been flat all day despite the indices all up significantly. I still don’t feel that new highs are in the cards without first having a deeper dip than we got in September.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 2240/2265 call spreads for 1.55, with SPX at 2169.
Options Expiration 10/7/16
–Expiring–
$FB 125 covered put
$NUGT 23 and 30 calls
$SPX 2190/2215 call spreads, sold last Friday for 3.50
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 19th 2210/2235 call spreads for .20. Sold last Friday for 2.10.
SPX call spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2215/2240 call spreads for 1.65. Tried selling the 2220 short spread this morning for 2.00 on the pop up, but missed the fill and watched my dreams dissolve away.
Next week I’ll be selling Nov 11th spreads, starting with calls first thing Monday.
DUST closed and sold calls
#ContangoETFs
BTC $DUST Oct 7th 50 call for .50. Sold for 1.475 (avg price) on Tuesday.
STO $DUST Oct 21st 60 call for 2.00.
Still have another 50 call that’s expiring today. Will look to close or roll as day progresses.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 28th 2235/2260 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Sept 28th.
SPX puts sold, calls closed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2050/2025 put spreads for 1.85
Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Sept 19th.
Jobs Results
156,000 non-farm added in September.
Unemployment rate up to 5.0%, as numbers added to both employed and unemployed (job participation went up slightly).
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
Have a great jobs Friday everyone!
UVXY call closed
#VXXGame Bought to close $UVXY Dec 55 call for .86. Sold for 4.40 on Sept 13th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 2100/2075 put spreads for 2.75. This is an extra spread to offset my call spread with the same expiry. I will stop and roll if we break the Sept 12th low of 2119.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on Sept 19th.
Karen SuperTrader saga
Here’s a link to the SEC’s response to request for dismissal. Interesting to read at least the intro in the continuing saga of a revered trader who was allegedly perpetrating fraud.
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/56010098/mtd-opposition-10032016
Open Action
TWTR sinking on rumors; Gold, NUGT sinking further, Bonds sinking further.
What will the jobs data do to this market tomorrow?
VIX indicator and the SPX…
VIX indicator and the SPX chart have been updated
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold an extra call spread above all time highs:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2200/2225 calls for 4.50, with SPX at 2163.
The importance of Monday morning premium
#SPXcampaign On Monday in the first hour of trading, the market was down less than half a percent. I sold the Nov 4th 2235/2260 call spread for 1.40 on an uptick to 2162. 33 days until expiration.
In the first hour today, 31 days to expiration, our intraday high was just below 2162. The same spread topped out at about 80 cents.
I have seen this constantly with call spreads… Monday morning premium is highly elevated, and drops quickly by Monday afternoon. Provided there are no large moves in SPX, theta makes quick work of the premium. This is less dramatic with put spreads, and I have not tested it as much with different expirations (just the 30-35 DTE range).
This is why that I sold that call spread even though the market was down.
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart…
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart have been updated
DUST added
#ContangoETFs Added another DUST Oct 7th 50 call, sold for 1.85 right before bell, at the high of the day.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2010/1985 put spreads for 1.45, earlier when SPX dipped to 2153.
DUST takes the reigns from NUGT
#ContangoETFs looks like these two might be changing hands as to which has the better action.
STO DUST Oct 7th 50 call for 1.10
#TopoftheChain :
STO DUST Nov 18th 60 call for 3.50
STO Dust Dec 16th 60 call for 5.40
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2220/2245 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on Sept 14th.
My order to sell a put spread was surprisingly not filled on that drop.
More SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 20th 1975/1950 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 20th.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2025/2000 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.10 on Sept 9th.
Econ Calendar week of 10/3/16
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Sept 12th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Mondays are a great day to sell the 5-week-out call spreads, even if the market is down a bit. Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2162.
Options Expiration 9/30/15
–Expiring —
$SPX 2185/2205 call spreads
$SPX 2210/2235 call spreads
$NUGT 16 puts
–Full Loss–
$NKE 53/55/57 iron butterfly
More calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2190/2215 call spreads for 3.50. Expire next Friday (or will be rolled if rally continues).
SPX call spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 19th 2210/2235 call spreads for 2.10. Doing the #ReverseRoll of put spreads stopped yesterday. Unless and until yesterday’s VIX Indicator signal is canceled I am fading the rallies.
SPX put roll closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 2100/2075 put spreads for 3.35. Sold for 2.10 last Thursday. This one hit my 4.00 stop on Monday and again today, and you don’t have to tell me twice… okay, maybe you do, but you don’t have to tell me three times to get out when stops are hit.
SPX condor corrupted
#SPXcampaign Bought to close Sept 30th 2050/2030 put spreads for 4.30. Sold a couple hours ago with a call spread for 1.50. Quick loss, but that’s the risk of these short-term trades. Will look to roll.
Downside Signal Fired
#Market #VIXIndicator Things suddenly look dark… DB and all banks continue dropping. After last Thursday’s Downside Warning cancelation, we have a new signal this Thursday. It takes two signals for a Warning. Next level today is 16.53.
I’m looking to exit the put side of the condor I entered earlier… immediate loss on that one!
Market
Deutsche Bank (DB) is down over 6%, putting pressure on all banks (XLF) and the market. Bonds (TLT) and VIX (UVXY) soaring.
AVGO covered call
#Earnings #LongStock #CoveredCalls
STO $AVGO Oct 28th 177.5 call for 2.00.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2020/1995 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2158.
And a minute later it’s at 2153. Whoa.
SPX next day condor
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 2130/2150/2185/2205 iron condors for 1.50. Expire tomorrow. Thanks @rknight52 for the inspiration.
FB covered put
#Earnings #CoveredPuts #ShortStock
And my short stock position continues. Someday my cost basis will equal the stock price…. some day.
STO $FB Oct 21st 126 covered put for 1.25.
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position Chart are updated.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2171.
SPX call rolling
#SPXcampaign This is a partial roll of the ITM roll that’s going into its third month. At least now I am selling OTM spreads, albeit pretty close.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2185/2210 call spreads for 7.60.
I closed a spread last week for 13.75. Sold a 2.00 put spread and now this, so 9.60 total and 4.25 more to go.
Oregon Ducks
For those of you discussing NKE and the Oregon Ducks, my stepson is the second guy from the right.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 7th 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Sept 9th.
NKE earnings trade
#Earnings BTC NKE Sept 30th 55 calls for .10. Now need a rally back to 55 to close the puts.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 14th 1980/1955 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Sept 16th.
NKE earnings
#Earnings For the earnings 53/55/57 iron butterfly, the best outcome would be to get the down flush today, followed by buying into Friday. You may consider closing the short 55 call today, currently going for .25. This will increase your risk by .25 but allow an easier exit should we rally into Friday.
I will look for a deeper flush and consider closing the 55 call if I can get closer to .10.
NKE movement
#Earnings volatility but looking decent for our neutral trades.
VIX Indicator and SPX chart…
VIX Indicator and SPX chart updated
NKE earnings
#Earnings Neutral play on NKE… needs to end the week between 53.50 and 58.50. Max risk, .43, max gain 1.57. Thanks @rknight52 for the idea.
Sold to open $NKE Sept 30th 53/55/57 iron butterfly for 1.57.
Buy 1x 57 call
Sell 1x 55 call
Sell 1x 55 put
Buy 1x 53 put
Recent 1-day moves on NKE earnings:
June 28, 2016 AC 3.84%
March 22, 2016 AC -3.79%
Dec. 22, 2015 AC -2.36%
Sept. 24, 2015 AC 8.89%
June 25, 2015 AC 4.26%
March 19, 2015 AC 3.72%
Dec. 18, 2014 AC -2.30%
Sept. 25, 2014 AC 12.22%
June 26, 2014 AC 1.06%
March 20, 2014 AC -5.12%
Dec. 19, 2013 AC -1.17%
Sept. 26, 2013 AC 4.69%
Average move: 4.5%
SPX call spread sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2159.
VIX Indicator and SPX Chart updated
#VIXIndicator Today we were denied a third consecutive close below the 78.5 line on the VIX (13.05), so there is no Upside Warning.
The market may react to tonight’s debate; I lean a bit bullish in sentiment as I believe it could be sell the anticipation then relax and resume buying after it’s over. But that’s only a guess and I don’t expect to be very surprised by anything tomorrow… just ready to trade it.
If there is a negative reaction, it will likely fire a signal and put us on a correction watch again.
SPX calls spreads closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Oct 5th 2215/2240 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.75 on Sept 12th.
Bought to close $SPX Sept 28th 2190/2215 call spreads for .20. Sold for 4.50 on Sept 9th.
Econ Calendar for Week of Sept 26
This is quickly accessible in the menu bar, above (top/right-of-center).
FB put sold
#CoveredPuts STO $FB Oct 14th 125 put for 1.45
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2151.
Options Expiration 9/23/16
#OptionsExpiration It’s been a good month with the small correction backing me out of pressured call positions. But still got stuck paying up to close one yesterday that would have expired worthless today.
— Expiring w/max gain —
NUGT 18 puts
NUGT 25 and 30 calls
SPX 2090/2065 put spreads. Sold for 1.70 on Wednesday
SPX 2110/2235 call spreads. Sold for 4.75 on Sept 2nd
— Expiring w/max loss —
TLT 138 long calls
NUGT calls closed
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Sept 30th 25 calls for .20. Sold for 1.00 on 9/16.
Thrilling day!
SPX ITM rolls
#SPXcampaign The Position chart is now updated.
Yesterday I had to stop out of this week’s 2165/2190 for 13.75. I didn’t get filled on attempts to roll to a new call spread. The only partial reverse-roll I got was:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2100/2075 put spreads for 2.10.
Was hoping for more strength this morning to get a call spread… will do my best to make up the premium.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator With today’s close below the 78.6% Fib line on the VIX chart, the downside warning is canceled.
Of the 36 VIX Indicator corrections since 2000, a canceled Downside Warning led to an Upside Warning 26 times, or 72%. An Upside Warning occurs after three consecutive closes below the 78.6 line, which currently is 13.05 on the VIX. The average time between a canceled Downside Warning and an Upside Warning is 5.7 trading days.
(For the 10 times an Upside Warning did not follow, it was an average of 16 trading days until a new Downside signal).
We are still using the VIX Aug 9th low of 11.02. The levels for new Downside signals to fire are 15.03 (25% above 2-day closing low), and 16.53 (50% above Aug 9 low).
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Oct 20th 2050/2025 put spreads for 1.30, earlier when SPX was at 2173.
AZO earnings
#Earnings The small move is a thing of beauty. With 30 days to expiry, I have orders in to close naked options at .20, and the iron condors at .40. Will close earlier if margin becomes an issue, or if price starts moving dramatically.
TICK highs
On TC2000 charting, the opening TICK this morning was the highest reading since June of 2013. This will differ in other platforms, but indicates very strong buy programs.
Options Bistro 