#VXXGame (Earlier) Sold to Open $UVXY2 (pre-split) Jan’18 85 call for .90. This is, in effect, the 425 strike based on the new pricing. Usually I cannot open new positions on the pre-split options, but IB allowed me earlier today. Perhaps it is because there are no post-split options yet. But alas, I cannot sell anymore so maybe it was a mistake earlier today.
Author Archives: Jeff
Earnings today
#Earnings IV is pretty low on CAT, MCD and LVS
GILD is usually a minor mover, but last quarter it dropped 10%. That throws a wrench in the works. Maybe an iron butterfly to capture a small move but limit risk if there’s another big one.
MBLY trying for a 1:1 put spread, 49/48, bullish trading with the trend.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2040/2015 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2167.
SWKS stock sold
#Earnings In pre-market, sold $SWKS stock for 65.10. Shares were assigned on Friday when 65 short puts were exercised (sold for .58 on Thursday).
UVXY has split… time for volatility?
Options Expiration 7/22/16
#OptionsExpiration Just two assignments, that’s all…
$SWKS 65 puts, stock assigned (#Earnings)
$UVXY 10 put, stock assigned
Also, earlier in day, Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2020/1995 puts for .20. Sold for 1.40 on July 8th.
SPX call roll
#SPXcampaign #Rolling Was hoping to slip out of this spread next week, but the continued rally makes it too dangerous.
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2165/2190 call spreads for 12.00. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 6.05 on June 30th.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2175/2200 call spreads for 12.10.
MSFT earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to close $MSFT July 22nd 56 call for .41. This was final long call. Overall, the 51/56 long strangle (bought for .62 on Tuesday) was a small loss. I sold back the calls at varying prices, averaging .50. As usual, it is better to sell into earnings than buy!
..and more calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold these before the other two, but forgot to post:
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 2190/2215 call spreads for 3.10.
SPX spreads sold in 401K
#SPXcampaign Since the 401K accounts I manage are Reg T margin, any put spread in a given expiry can be offset by a call spread margin free. Since I have the July 27th 2130/2105 put spreads, I sold the following:
Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 2185/2210 call spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2166.
I feel we’re hitting at resistance and any move higher will be slower. I also did NOT sell these in my main Portfolio Margin account, as margin is not calculated in the same way.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.55, with SPX at 2166.
UAL trade update
#Earnings BTC UAL July 22nd 48 calls for .10. Now I have cleared away all risk and locked in about 1.35 profit. I will try to sell the long 45.5 puts remaining (one just filled for .13), and the long 50 calls if it rallies tomorrow.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2055/2030 puts for 1.30, with SPX at 2167.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 2125/2100 for 2.25, with SPX at 2167
SBUX and SWKS earnings
#Earnings A couple of naked put plays, going with the uptrends in these stocks:
Sold to Open $SWKS July 22nd 65 puts for .55. Biggest UP move: 14.1% , Biggest DOWN move: -6.9% , Average move: 6.6% . This trade is 7.7% OTM
Asking .45 for $SBUX July 22nd 55 puts. Biggest UP move: 7.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -4.9% , Average move: 2.7% . This trade is 3.8% OTM.
You could also do ATM put spreads to define your risk.
UAL earnings
#Earnings #IronCondor
On $UAL condor I covered my short puts yesterday, so I’m now replacing the premium I spent on that by selling the long puts. One for .17 and one for .20 so far. Will hold the rest for awhile in case this thing really collapses. Looks like the call spreads will expire worthless, meaning max profit on the trade; maybe higher if these long puts get juicy.
SPX puts expire & puts close
#SPXcampaign Last night, $SPX July 20th 2135/2110 put spreads expired. Sold for 1.50 last Friday.
In pre-market, bought to close $SPX July 29th 2075/2050 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.90 on July 9th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2140/2115 put spreads for 2.05, right before bell with the small spike down to 2172.
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs Bought to close NUGT Aug 12th 250 call for .50. Sold for 8.10 on July 8th.
Wide bid/ask spread but I was filled immediately.
QCOM bullish play
#Earnings QCOM has gone down on last 9 earnings reports. But since the Feb lows it seems to have found its bottom and now in recovery. Carter Worth covered it on Fast Money as a bullish play. I’m making a pretty cheap play with a 57.5 call butterfly, which is about the expected move in TOS.
Bought to open QCOM 56.5/57.5/58.5 call butterflys for .15. Max loss .15, max gain .84 if pins at 57.5. Expiration breakevens 56.66 and 58.32.
UAL earnings
#Earnings Bought to close UAL July 22nd 47.5 puts for .10. This adds an additional .10 to my risk, but sets me up well if there’s a pullback into week’s end. This trade was yesterday’s sale of the 45.5/47.5/48/50 iron condor for 1.42. Now I have no downside risk.
MSFT call sold
#Earnings Filled on the exit of my first call, bought as a .62 strangle yesterday.
Sold to close $MSFT July 22nd 56 call for .65. Liquidating more at .75
SPX ITM calls sold
#SPXcampaign This completes my roll from the ITM call spread that was stopped Friday. I sold these in three batches: 11.80, 12.50, and 14.10
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12 2160/2185 call spreads for 14.10, with SPX at 2172.
Again, this is NOT the best way to play this strategy… but I got stuck with too many call spreads after Brexit and now am managing ATM & ITM rolls until we get a significant pullback. If no pullback comes, I will be rolling mysteries higher until I’m out.
NUGT roll
#ContangoETFs Avoiding going ITM on this one…
BTC NUGT Aug 5th 135 put for 15.00. Sold for 11.60 on 7/6
STO NUGT Aug 26th 100/180 strangle for 15.34
Earnings results
#Earnings MSFT higher but not enough for a juicy profit. Will try to sell half the calls at open.
UAL perfectly flat… hope it stays that way until Friday! Will try to close half with profit today and ride the rest into expiration.
UAL earnings… back to selling
#Earnings This one is the opposite of MSFT… a couple of outlier larger moves, but a low average move: Over last 12 earnings: Biggest UP move: 4.5% , Biggest DOWN move: -9.8% , Average move: 2.4% .
Sold to Open $UAL July 22nd 45.5/47.5/48/50 iron condors for 1.42. Risking .58 to make 1.42 max. This will give an expiration break-even at +/- 3%. Even if there’s a bigger move tomorrow we have until Friday to drift back toward the mean.
MSFT earnings – I’m buying???
#Earnings Inspired by @thomberg1201‘s trade on NFLX yesterday, trying a long options play on MSFT. It used to be dead money but has perked up over last few years with some decent moves. Over last 12 quarters, Biggest UP move: 10.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.4%, Average move: 5.7%. So, taking a cheap shot to collect tomorrow AM:
Bought to open 51/56 strangles for .62. Requires a 4.7% move of 2.50 to hit either strike, which is below the average move above. I don’t remember last time I bought options on earnings, but this one seemed like a reasonable chance. I will look to sell half or all of the profitable side on the morning bell.
NUGT puts closed
#ContangoETFs Closing a couple at better than 85%, paving way to sell more on bigger moves
BTC NUGT Sep 35 put for .20. Sold for 1.80 on June 3rd
BTC NUGT Aug 5th 80 put for .40. Sold for 3.90 on June 29th
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2040/2015 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2160.
NFLX, quite a dump… glad…
NFLX, quite a dump… glad I got no fill on my trade.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Earlier today:
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2165.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2160/2185 call spreads for 12.50, with SPX at 2164. This is another part of the roll from Friday’s stopped ATM spread.
NFLX trade
#Earnings ShortStrangle Going for $NFLX July 22nd 86/111 strange for 1.75, settle for 1.65-1.70. These strikes are outside the average move and the post-split moves.
NFLX earnings
#Earnings Here are the NFLX 5-day post-earnings moves over the last 12 quarters:
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -11.53%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -6.64%
Wed 10/14/2015 AC -7.74%
Wed 07/15/2015 AC 12.65%
Wed 04/15/2015 AC 19.33%
Tue 01/20/2015 AC 25.41%
Wed 10/15/2014 AC -19.92%
Mon 07/21/2014 AC -6.65%
Mon 04/21/2014 AC -7.57%
Wed 01/22/2014 AC 14.23%
Mon 10/21/2013 AC -7.59%
Mon 07/22/2013 AC -5.97%
Average move: 12.1%
At the current price of 98.60, the max up move would bring it to 123.65, max down move would bring it to 73.55. Average moves would be 86.67/110.53. TOS expected move is 88.80/108.40.
SPX partial roll
#SPXcampaign I have been riding a few ATM and ITM call spreads, waiting for a pullback or to roll. I closed this one on Friday as I don’t want to get closer to expiration, when rolling becomes tougher to impossible. Sold only a third of the roll for now, waiting to see the moves next week to add more.
Bought to close $SPX July 27th 2150/2175 call spreads for 13.60. Sold as part of a condor roll for 4.40 on July 7th.
Sold to Open $SPX August 12th 2055/2080/2160/2185 condor for 13.95, as a partial roll.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 2100/2075 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Wednesday.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 20th 2135/2110 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2156. Aggressive position expiring on Wednesday. I don’t think we will crash down today, but I am ready to roll these if things get worse.
New VIX low hit intraday…
New VIX low hit intraday (12.48), lowest since August 10, 2015.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Right after the bell, Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2035/2010 puts for .30. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 6.05 on June 30th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Was trying to bottom pick the midday pullback, but got stuck chasing it back up instead. Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 2130/2105 put spreads for 2.60. This offsets an ATM call spread for this Wednesday expiry… margin free for the Reg T accounts.
SPX Upside Warning data
I have been compiling data on the #VIXindicator. I hope to present it to everyone in a webinar soon, but since we are in an Upside Warning now, I wanted to share some points of interest.
(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.
21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
New VIX low notched earlier…
New VIX low notched earlier (12.72), but back up to flat now. Another day of all-time lows in VXX and UVXY.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Highest calls I have ever sold, but I’ve reduced my position size for now. I will use a 3.00 stop on this one.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.30
SPX, a stop and a close
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2165/2190 call spreads for 12.10. Sold for 1.45 on July 6th. (ouch)
Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 1975/1950 put spreads for .30. Sold as part of condor-roll for 7.40 on July 1.
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs Taking profits early since it was hogging margin. NUGT has actually been manageable for last week or so. When will the next mega-move happen?
BTC NUGT Aug 5th 205 call for 5.40. Sold for 15.00 on July 6th.
Hey, No Pressure
#SPXcampaign Having to close a few spreads to manage margin pressure and the sheer insanity of this move. As a group of traders I know are calling it, the B.S.C. market. A nocturnal blind flying mammal defecating in its lunacy.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 2180/2200 call spreads for 9.35. Sold Tuesday for 7.30.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2200/2225 call spreads for 5.90. Sold for 1.75 on Monday.
Bought to close $SPX July 27th 2025/2000 put spreads for .30. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 4.40 on July 7th (don’t ask about the call side)
And if you’re feeling the pressure like me, sit back and watch the visual lyrics… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9L0IUG8gKQ
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 1940/1915 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on July 5th.
NUGT call sold
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Aug 19th 250 call for 7.00
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close SPX July 27th 2000/1975 puts for .20. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 4.40 on July 7th.
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 1975/1950 puts for .20. Sold for 1.30 on July 1st.
SPX put roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 2100/2075 put spreads for 1.50, double-sized position. It seems funny to be selling a put spread at 2100, but there you have it. I think most likely direction over the rest of July is up, but a pullback could be in the cards. If any puts get in trouble it will mean wonderful things for my pressured call spreads.
SPX Puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2035/2010 put spreads for 1.30.
…And SPX Dailys are next
I have been joking for a couple years that we will someday have “Daily” options. No longer a joke…
Closing some puts
#VXXGame BTC UVXY July 29th 25 call for .05. Sold for 1.00 on June 24th. This clears me of all UVXY calls. I now have a small amount of stock and one ITM put.
#ShortStock #CoveredPuts BTC $FB July 22nd 106 put for .05. Sold for 1.70 on June 27th. Will look to replace with a new put on weakness. Earnings are July 27th (AC).
VIX stabilizing?
Yes, I’m wanting some down side, so of course I’m engaging in some wishful thinking. I do believe we will be above 2200, probably closer to 2300 by year’s end. But when will we get pullbacks? I need one now to adjust my spreads higher. One thing I’m seeing today is a flat VIX. It opened at a new low but rose back to flat with the SPX pullback that started around 9:50 ET. Now as we’re higher, VIX is flat. I’d think less of this if we were down below 12, but 13.60 is not really low. Could this mean some downside or at least stabilization into monthly expiration?
NUGT puts
#ContangoETFs Bought to close NUGT Sept 40 puts for .40. Sold for 5.40 on May 19th.
Sold to Open NUGT July 29th 120 put for 4.50.
SPX roll call sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2180/2200 call spreads for 7.30 as a roll. Crazy, i know, but is it crazier than this bull run? May be stopped out and rolled again if we get much above 2160.
Dow joins S&P…
…in all time highs. Nasdaq not too far behind… Russell is the laggard.
VIX Upside Warning continues
As is the historical norm, more upside is expected after the VIX completes three consecutive closes below the 78.6% Fib line. That happened Friday, and today we’re looking at our 8th rally out of the last 10 days. How much farther we go is hard to tell… Upside Warning usually fires about midway between the bottom and top of the SPX run, but there are fewer examples to draw from when we are in all-time-high territory.
In other news, of course, we should open with a fifth consecutive day of all-time lows in UVXY and the third consecutive one in VXX.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Last night before the close: Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2155/2180 call spreads for 7.50. Holding off on rolls until freight train slows. Also have one ITM call spread in August… since it is still a ways to expiry, rolling is still possible if no pullback comes within a week or so. Not ideal to roll ITM, of course, but I left this one behind as I focused on rolling more immediate expiries.
NUGT put
#ContangoETFs Adding more to put side as it balances my deltas and gives me a margin credit.
STO NUGT Aug 12th 135 put for 12.60
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2200/2225 cal spreads for 1.75, with SPX at 2136.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2150/2175 call spreads for 8.00. Sold for 5.75 on May 24th. I will be selling rolls on this and others in the coming days.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2010/1985 puts for 1.25, with SPX at 2138.
SPX chart updated… getting pretty…
SPX chart updated… getting pretty hairy on the upside.
Bistro VIX Indicator: Upside Warning fired
#VIXIndicator An UPSIDE WARNNG fired on Friday, with three consecutive closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement line (from the recent VIX low of April 20 to high of June 27th). Watch for more upside and new all-time highs in SPX before things slow down or reverse.
We are now also establishing new VIX lows by which to measure the next correction. Friday’s low was 13.19, with a close of 13.20.
Monday’s levels that would reverse course and fire new Downside signals are 16.50 (25% above the 2-day closing low), and 19.79 (50% above July 8th low).
No expirations
#VXXGame Asleep at the wheel, forgot about this one until right before close:
BTC UVXY July 8th 11 put for 3.70. Sold for 1.51 on June 20th. I’ll take the loss as I don’t really care to roll UVXY at such a low levels. Bring on the reverse split!
NUGT call
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Aug 12th 250 call for 8.10
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2075/2050 put spreads for 2.90. This adds to my rolling and also better balances my puts vs. calls ratio.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2150/2175 call spreads for 8.50. Sold as part of iron condor for 7.40 on July 1. Since we breached 2130, I will be looking to close 2150/2175 spreads. Just this one for today.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2020/1995 put spreads for 1.40. This is my second standard spread for the Aug 5th expiry. I am holding off on my second call spread for next week.
SPX partial roll
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open a handful of $SPX Aug 12th 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.75, as a partial roll of call spread stopped earlier. I tripled my position size, which is fine since I am heavier calls than puts. This covers a bit more than half of my cost to close the stopped calls; will add more rolls today and next week.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 1970/1945 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Tuesday.
SPX calls crushed
#SPXcampaign Got crushed because no pullback would come. I am working on a roll, which will mostly be in puts; with Upside Warning firing today, I anticipate new all time highs next week. On whatever pullbacks we get, I will be aggressive at selling puts and exiting call spreads (but still also selling super high call spreads).
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2125/2150 call spreads for 13.35. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.40 on June 27th.
Upside Warning probably coming…
Barring a reversal on day and a close lower, today will be the third consecutive day where the VIX will close below the Fib 78.6% retracement line (from the recent VIX low of April 20 to high of June 27th). This will trigger an Upside Warning. Since we are already close to both the recent SPX high and the all-time high, it’s hard to say how far and how strongly it can run. Of course, it could also be a head-fake. But for now, VIX is telling us the risk is more to the upside.
Out KOLD
#ContangoETFs Dumping my final KOLD options to avoid the forward split and further downside. This leaves me flat KOLD.
BTC KOLD Aug 19th 80 put for 2.00. Sold for 2.55 on 1/26.
BTC KOLD Aug 19th 70 put for .60. Sold for 2.00 on 1/29.
New lows…
…on UVXY, fourth day of a new low in July already, and a new low in VXX, first time since June 7th.
Options Bistro 