#ShortPuts – I’ll take it now. You just never know…
Bought to Close LABU JUL 31 2020 47.5 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.60)
Category Archives: Uncategorized
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2020 AC -7.59%
Jan. 30, 2020 AC +7.37%
Oct. 24, 2019 AC -1.09%
July 25, 2019 AC -1.55%
April 25, 2019 AC +2.54%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
Avg (+ or -) 4.67%
Bias 0.35%, tiny positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 3020.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 3197.00 to 3551.00 (+/- 6.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 2879.07 to 3160.93
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 2621.06 to 3418.94
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 2784.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
TQQQ
STO August 21, 65 put at .52
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2020 AC -1.60%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC +2.09%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +2.26%
July 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
Avg (+ or -) 4.03%
Bias 1.93%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 376.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 351.44 to 400.56 (+/- 6.5%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 360.86 to 391.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 350.32 to 401.68
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 351.07
Open to requests for other symbols.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2020 AC +5.41%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC -6.13%
Oct. 30, 2019 AC +1.80%
July 24, 2019 AC -1.93%
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
Avg (+ or -) 6.00%
Bias 1.16%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 230.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 216.31 to 243.69 (+/- 6.0%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 216.20 to 243.80
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 186.39 to 273.61
Based on UP max only (+10.8%): 254.86
Open to requests for other symbols.
LRCX Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Stock went up. (big surprise 🙂 ). Getting what I can from the call spread and letting the put side expire. Made .35!!
Bought to Close LRCX JUL 31 2020 350.0/355.0 side of the Jade Condor @ 4.75 (sold for 5.10)
AAPL Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Going out to the monthlies for a little more safety and premium. Selling the expected move but below the 50ma. I’ll still put it in the #TakeOneForTheTeam category. 🙂 🙂
Sold AAPL AUG 21 2020 350.0 Put @ 3.75
TQQQ
STO September 18, 65 put at 1.94
STO September 18, 70 put at 2.51
PYPL Earnings
#putratiospread
#brokenwingbutterfly
Jul 31
177.5/175 put ratio, 2×4 1.65 cr
172.5/167.5/165 BWB downside hedge .58 debit qty 2
breakeven $166.93, approx 12 delta
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to open $SPX Aug 5th 3235/3255-3265/3285 condors for 16.85. with SPX at 3259.
LRCX Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – I’m calling this a Jade Lizard because it’s fun but adding a disaster put turning it into some sort of an unbalanced iron condor. Still no upside risk and playing for a down move of half to one and a half times the expected move.
Sold LRCX JUL 31 2020 300.0/335.0/350.0/355.0 Jade Condor @ 5.10
SHOP fading the gap up
Stock has been fading from its morning post-earnings gap up, all day. Sold $SHOP 8/21 1120/1140 bear call spread @ 5.00. Short calls above today’s high. With IV low and the the short calls closer than I usually sell (34 delta), this trade has a higher than usual directional component (i.e., looking for further down movement rather than waiting for volatility to contract). Heads up, this is another underlying with less than ideal liquidity.
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Taking it off a week early…
Bought to Close NVDA AUG 07 2020 350.0 Put @ .16 (sold for 4.49)
TRADES:
THC BTO STOCK @26.92 Reports Earn Monday
LABU
#ShortPuts – Adding…
Sold LABU AUG 21 2020 40.0 Puts @ 1.39
NOW trade this
#Earnings Sold to Open $NOW July 31st 425/420 put spreads for 1.40, with stock at 441.00. Short strike is at the max negative move.
NOW earnings analysis
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Overwhelmingly positive response on earnings…
April 29, 2020 AC +9.17%
Jan. 29, 2020 AC +9.16%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +8.07%
July 24, 2019 AC -3.86% the only DOWN move since Jan 2016
April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74%
Avg (+ or -) 5.52%
Bias 4.88%, overwhelmingly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 443.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 417.67 to 468.33 (+/- 5.7%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 418.55 to 467.45
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 383.59 to 502.41
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 425.90
Open to requests for other symbols.
DVA earnings analysis (for tomorrow)
#Earnings $DVA reports THURSDAY after the bell. By request, here are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 5, 2020 AC +4.41%
Feb. 10, 2020 AC +6.94%
Nov. 5, 2019 AC +12.92% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +1.28%
May 7, 2019 AC -8.55%
Feb. 13, 2019 AC +0.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -7.79%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +5.34%
May 3, 2018 AC +4.86%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +1.64%
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -7.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC -8.84% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.89%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 90.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 85.35 to 94.65 (+/- 5.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 84.70 to 95.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 78.37 to 101.63
Based on DOWN max only (-8.8%): 82.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
DOCU adjustment
Rolled $DOCU 160/150 bull put spread up to 185/175 for 1.26 credit. Part of an iron condor with 220/230 bear call spread. Originally sold the iron condor for 3.69 on 7/15. With this credit, total premium taken in now 4.95.
KODK
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kodak-halted-9-times-stock-explodes-higher-amid-flood-retail-buying
Waiting for Weekly options before partaking 🙂
SPOT put spread
Sold $SPOT 8/21 240/230 bull put spread @ 2.25. Still high IV post-earnings (IVR 48). Short puts 25 delta. Caution: liquidity not great for most options on this underlying.
KHC Strangle / NVAX Roll Call / NVDA Put Closed
#shortstrangles
$KHC STO 7/31 34/37 strangle at .86 Thank you @honkhonk81
#coveredcalls
$NVAX BTC 7/31 145 call and STO 8/7 145 call at added $14 credit. Stock at 146
#shortputs
$NVDA BTC 8/7 350 put at .30. STO on 7/6 at 4.40. Thank you @fuzzballl
QCOM earnings analysis
#Earnings $QCOM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2020 AC -0.37%
Feb. 5, 2020 AC -0.32%
Nov. 6, 2019 AC +6.32%
July 31, 2019 AC -2.67%
May 1, 2019 AC +0.89%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -8.16% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +7.00% Biggest UP
April 25, 2018 AC +1.44%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.12%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC +2.58%
July 19, 2017 AC -4.94%
Avg (+ or -) 3.18%
Bias -0.14%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 92.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 87.12 to 97.88 (+/- 5.8%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 89.56 to 95.44
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 84.95 to 100.05
Based on UP max only (+7.0%): 98.98
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMD Earnings
#ShortPuts #OneNightStand – A quickie…
Bought to Close AMD AUG 21 2020 62.5 Puts @ .40 (sold for 1.82)
FB Earnings
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/facebook-fb-stock-earnings-report-delay-mark-zuckerberg
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 3125/3145-3265/3285 condors for 1.65, IV 18.1%, SPX 3219, deltas: -.06, +.09
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close July 29th 3270/3290 call spreads for .75… as usual, I get the direction wrong! Wanted to close up to get 3.00 or more for this.
TQQQ
BTC JUly 31 75 puts at .02 cents, sold at 1.12, forgot to post earlier.
SOXL
STO January 55 puts at 2.05, stock is trading at $204
XRX
Back in
Bought XRX / Sold XRX 08/21/2020 15.0 Covered Call @ 14.20 Debit
Bought XRX / Sold XRX 09/18/2020 16.0 Covered Call @ 14.20 Debit.
The low for the year so far on the stock is 14.22
A nice 6.5% dividend too.
AMD Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings #TakeOneForTheTeam
This might stir stir things up a little bit. Going to the monthly with a fairly aggressive sale near the breakout level.
Sold AMD AUG 21 2020 62.5 Puts @ 1.82
GLD
Gartman: “I’m Getting Out Of Gold”
Just the news gold bulls have been waiting for.
SHOP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 6, 2020 BO +6.91%
Feb. 12, 2020 BO +7.81%
Oct. 29, 2019 BO -3.81%
Aug. 1, 2019 BO +7.39%
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
Avg (+ or -) 6.11%
Bias 2.12%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 982.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 895.07 to 1068.93 (+/- 8.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 921.98 to 1042.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 863.87 to 1100.13
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 893.42
Open to requests for other symbols.
AMD
BTC AMD 7/31/2020 54 #ShortPut @0.11. Was STO @3.14 on 7/16.
Have been in this for a while, just taking the profit early here. I still think AMD is in a pretty good position right now, with what Intel announced recently about issues. Will likely look again after earnings.
TQQQ
STO December 60 puts at 5.60
AMD earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMD reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 28, 2020 AC -3.33%
Jan. 28, 2020 AC -5.97%
Oct. 29, 2019 AC +0.30%
July 30, 2019 AC -10.09%
April 30, 2019 AC -2.96%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +19.94% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -15.44% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +14.33%
April 25, 2018 AC +13.69%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.75%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -13.47%
July 25, 2017 AC +4.60%
Avg (+ or -) 9.24%
Bias 0.70%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 69.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 62.72 to 75.28 (+/- 9.1%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 62.62 to 75.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.9%): 55. 24 to 82.76
Based on DOWN max only (-15.4%): 58.35
Open to requests for other symbols.
NFLX
#ShortStrangles – Squeezing it in a little for some extra credit. Still well outside the expected move…
Rolled NFLX AUG 21 2020 400.0/600.0 Strangle to AUG 21 2020 425.0/575.0 Strangle @ 2.15 credit (10.70 total now)
SLV strangle
Sold $SLV 8/21 20.50/27 strangle @ 1.00. Delta neutral with both sides at 22 delta. IV rank 55.
TQQQ
STO august 14, 75 put at .75
STO August 14, 80 put at 1.20
STO August 21,70 put at .85
STO September 4, 65 put at 1.25
VXX Puts
New VXX Put Diagonals
Bought VXX Jan 15 2021 13.0 Puts / Sold VXX Jul 31 2020 27.50 Puts @ 0.12 Credit.
Bought VXX Jan 15 2021 14.0 Put / Sold VXX Jul 31 2020 28.00 Put @ 0.17 Credit.
Adding Jan longs for free if the short puts expire Friday.
LABU
#ShortPuts – Sold LABU AUG 21 2020 45.0 Puts @ 1.80
TQQQ
Sold TQQQ AUG 21 2020 90.0 Put @ 3.30
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 29th 3260/3240 put spreads for 14.00. Condors bought last Wednesday for 16.95. Looking to avoid a possible danger zone tomorrow, and sell the call spread on a bounce.
CINF
Bought to close 1 CINF 08/21/2020 50.0 Put @ 0.05. It can’t trade any lower. Out almost a month early.
Sold this on 6/19 @ 2.02 when CINF was 63.22
ULTA
#ShortPuts – Following @Ramie’s lead and taking this off a few weeks early. Can add some earnings trades now.
Bought to Close ULTA AUG 21 2020 155.0 Put @ .90 (sold for 2.90)
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 3215/3235-3245/3265 condors for 17.05, with SPX at 3238.
#SPX1dte Expiring: 3115/3135-3270/3290 condors, sold Friday for 1.25.
#earnings #shortstrangles FFIV Sold Aug….
#earnings #shortstrangles FFIV
Sold Aug. 21, 135/165 strangle for 3.10, stock around 150.
thanks for the data Jeff
WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Staying bearish and rolling down. Cutting long deltas about in half. Earnings next week (maybe)
Rolled WYNN JUL 31 2020 70.0 Call to JUL 31 2020 65.0 Call @ 3.55 credit (7.35 total now)
LULU
#shortstrangles COF Sold Sept. 18,…
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 27th 3245/3225 put spreads for 13.10. Condors bought last Monday for 16.75. Too much risk of this closing near or in the dead zone, so locking in a 3.65 loss now rather than possibly more later.
Taking profits on ULTA
Bought to close $ULTA 8/21 155 puts @ 1.10. Sold for 2.90 on 7/9. Thanks @fuzzballl!
FFIV earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 27, 2020 AC +7.59% Biggest UP
Jan. 27, 2020 AC -5.04%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +5.50%
July 24, 2019 AC -0.65%
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.86%
Bias 0.33%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 153.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 143.53 to 162.47 (+/- 6.2%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 147.09 to 158.91
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.6%): 141.39 to 164.61
Based on DOWN max only (-7.2%): 142.05
NOTE: 5-day max moves are roughly the same as 1-day
Open to requests for other symbols.
TQQQ
On Friday I did sell the December 35 puts at 2.05, It went into the wrong account and I did not see it.
Pandemic Profiteering?
Interesting Article.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-qqqs-make-you-queasy
MDLZ
BTC MDLZ July 24: 53.5 short straddle @ $1.38 (originally sold for $1.38)
STO MDLZ July 31: 55.0 short straddle @ $2.17
Cover is the Jan 2022 long 40 put / 65 call strangle.
EWZ
BTC EWZ July 24: 31 straddle @ $1.54 (originally sold for $1.40)
STO EWZ July 31: 32.5 straddle @ $1.55
Standstill on premium income, but the Sep 18 $30 long call moves further ITM
The short straddle is covered by a long EWZ Sep 18: 24 put / 30 call strangle.
TQQQ
STO December 18, 35 puts at 2.05, I guess someone is very bearish.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 3115/3135-3270/3290 condors for 1.25, IV 13.12%, SPX 3213, deltas -.06, +.05.
Expiring: July 24th 3125/3145-3290/3310 condors, sold yesterday for .95
VXX Puts
Bought to close VXX 07/24/2020 29.50 Puts @ 0.01. Sold these on 7/20 @ 0.59
VIAC Rollout
Bought to close VIAC 07/24/2020 24.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold 07/31/2020 24.0 Calls @ 0.38 Credit
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 31st 3185/3205-3215/3235 condors for 17.55, with SPX at 3213.
Hanging on the edge to end the day below 3205 for full profit on today’s.
Markets
Navigating The Tech Bubble & Living To Tell About It
If you have been around the markets for any length of time, you can quickly spot the “pigeons at the poker table.” They are the ones that rationalize why prices can only rise, why “this time is different,” and focus only on the bullish supports.
#MacroView: Navigating The Tech Bubble & Living To Tell About It.
TRADES: Not timely.
APT BTC 7/24/20 25.0 CALLS @.02 STO @1.15
APT BTC 7/24/20 23.0 CALLS @.05 STO @.53
APT STO 7/30/20 24.0 CALLS @.80
SDGR BTC 8/21/20 100.0 CALL @1.30 STO @8.00
SDGR BTO STOCK @75.0
LABU
#ShortPuts – Sold LABU AUG 14 2020 40.0 Puts @ 1.10 and 1.15
Econ Calendar for week of 7/27/20
Link to calendar:
NTAP UVXY WYNN
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – A few today…
NTAP: Old earnings trade still plugging away with covered calls. Next earnings still a few weeks away.
Bought to Close NTAP JUL 24 2020 45.0 Calls @ .04 (sold for .71)
Sold NTAP JUL 31 2020 45.0 Calls @ .48
UVXY: Good day in this one. Rolling covered calls and replacing short puts expiring today.
Rolled UVXY JUL 24 2020 27.0 Calls to JUL 31 2020 27.5 Calls @ 1.15 credit (4.55 total now)
Sold UVXY JUL 31 2020 26.0 Puts @ 1.02
WYNN: Glad I went 10 dollars in the money with the covered call last week.
Bought to Close WYNN JUL 24 2020 70.0 Call @ 2.22 (sold for 13.35)
Sold WYNN JUL 31 2020 70.0 Call @ 3.80
T Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Didn’t get the bounce so booking it for small gain. Still holding Aug 28.5 strike.
Bought to Close T JUL 24 2020 30.5 Puts @ .45 (sold for .75)
VIAC
Bought to close VIAC 07/24/2020 26.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.01.
Sold these Monday @ 0.44 against long Calls expiring in September
EW closed
#Earnings. Legged out of $EW 24Jul/31Jul 78 #DoubleCalendar as two straddles. Couldn’t ask for a better move on the stock.
Bought to close $EW July 24th 78 straddles for 1.051.
Sold to close $EW July 31st 78 straddles for 2.822
#DoubleCalendars Bought for .742 yesterday, sold for 1.771.
INTC
Intel down 15%.
Wow
TQQQ
STO August 28, 60 put at 1.20, just scaling in small positions.
SQQQQ
Sold SQQQ 07/21/2020 8.50 Covered Calls @ 0.10
VXX Puts
Bought to close VXX 07/24/2020 28.50 Puts @ 0.01. Sold these on 7/20 @ 0.36 and again @ 0.63.
Started a new position selling some VXX 07/31/2020 28.0 Puts @ 0.41
#shortputs $INO BTC 8/21 17…
#shortputs
$INO BTC 8/21 17 put and STO 8/21/24 put at added $3 credit.
$ZM BTC 7/24 put at .05. STO 6/26 at 3.66
$STNE BTC 8/21 put at .40. STO 7/14 at 2.70
Options Bistro 