#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 17th 3150/3170-3180/3200 condors for 17.25, with SPX at 3177.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Was going to let this one run the distance but playing it safe since I’ve already sold next week…
Bought to Close UVXY JUL 10 2020 30.0 Puts @ .08 (sold for 2.28)
SPY
#ShortPuts – Taking well over half with 6 weeks to go…
Bought to Close SPY AUG 21 2020 260.0 Put @ 1.15 (sold for 3.43)
TSLA
#CrazyTown again
TSLA Rockets Higher Again As ‘Someone’ Panic-Buys Massively OTM Call Options
The question is – who is buying these lottery tickets in size and who in the world benefits most from the TSLA share price being at these incredibly elevated levels?
Econ Calendar for week of 7/13/20
Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
VXX Puts
Sold VXX 07/17/2020 31.50 Puts @ 0.76
Sold VXX 07/17/2020 31.0 Puts @ 0.55
Sold VXX 07/17/2020 30.50 Puts @ 0.41
Partially replacing the 31.50 Puts for this week that I covered for a penny this morning.
#DoubleDip
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to Close $SPX June 10th 3145/3125 put spreads for .50. I have no choice now but to rely on the call side for profit, so dumping the put side. Need a close above 3175 for max profit.
SPY Roll
Bought to close 1 SPY 07/10/2020 312.0 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/13/2020 313.0 Call @ 0.15 Credit plus an extra point higher on the strike for just one more trading day.
SPY at 315.36.
#SPYLadder
Markets
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/07/you-are-now-leaving-fantasyland-losses.html
“As the inverted pyramid collapses, the effects will be non-linear: a 10% decline may trigger dominoes that end up generating an 90% decline in “value” and “wealth” because the collapse of collateral to a non-fantasy valuation will implode all the phantom valuations piled on steadily more fragile and fantastic layers of phantom “capital.”
The fantasy of the Neofeudal Aristocracy is that the losses can be painlessly transferred to the debt-serfs and taxpaying peasantry. Mommy and Daddy (Treasury and Fed) will load future generations of debt-serfs and taxpaying peasantry with the losses and the political-financial Nobility will have their fortunes preserved. Gee, thanks, Mommy and Daddy! You’re swell!
The Neofeudal Aristocracy overlooks one terribly inconvenient fact: the debt-serfs and peasantry own next to nothing. The non-linear collapse of phantom capital will have asymmetric consequences: all the “assets” most likely to go to zero are owned not by the peasantry but by the Neofeudal Aristocracy.”
TNA UVXY VXX
#ShortPuts – Rolling and adding…
TNA: Still rolling and adding credit
Rolled TNA JUL 10 2020 27.5 Puts to JUL 24 2020 26.0 Puts @ .30 credit (3.15 total now)
UVXY: Adding
Sold UVXY JUL 17 2020 29.0 Puts @ .90
Sold UVXY JUL 17 2020 28.5 Puts @ .70
VXX: Adding
Sold VXX JUL 17 2020 31.5 Puts @ .60
VXX Puts
Bought to close 07/10/2020 31.50 Puts @ 0.01.
Rolled the 07/02/2020 33.0 Puts down to these at a 0.26 Credit last Friday.
They were written against VXX 2021 and 2022 long puts.
I also have 29, 30, and 30.50 short Puts and 38 and 40 short Calls expiring today.
WBA Diagonal Credit Spread unwind
On Wednesday, before #Earnings, I sold to open WBA Jul 10 2020 40.00 Puts @ $0.43 / Bought WBA Jul 17 2020 30.00 Puts @ $0.02 for a 0.41 net credit.
Today I Closed Out the Spread for a 0.40 Debit for a virtual break even.
Given that the stock dropped to 38.05 on Thursday and started below 38.60 this morning, I count this as a victory.
At least I got to add stock yesterday below 39.
VIAC Covered Roll
Bought to close VIAC 07/10/2020 20.0 Covered Calls / Sold VIAC 07/17/2020 20.0 Covered Calls @ 0.11 Credit.
The options are too far ITM to roll up with the stock at 22.49.
A pullback to about 21 by next Friday would help with that.
#Earnings not until 08/06
PFE Put Rolled
#shortputs
$PFE BTC 7/10 34 put and STO 7/17 34 put at .36 added credit
KSS Roll
Bought to close KSS 07/10/2020 22.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold KSS 07/17/2020 23.0 Diagonal Calls @ 0.27 Credit plus an extra point on the short strike.
The stock is at 20.60 with no #Earnings next week.
AAL Covered Roll
Bought to close 1 AAL 07/10/2020 13.50 Covered Call / Sold 1 AAL 07/17/2020 Covered Call @ 0.17 Credit with the stock at 11.35
WBA Covered Roll
Bought to close WBA 07/10/2020 42.50 Covered Call / Sold WBA 07/17/2020 41.0 Covered Call @ 0.32 Credit
With the stock around 39.0 after the earnings drop I’m expecting this one won’t be threatened next week.
However, my average stock cost is below 40, so whatever 🙂
PEP earnings analysis
#Earnings $PEP reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings FIVE-day moves over the last 12 quarters, to indicate how PEP may move into next Friday’s expiration.
Tue 04/28/2020 BO -3.21%
Thu 02/13/2020 BO +0.62%
Thu 10/03/2019 BO +3.29%
Tue 07/09/2019 BO +0.54%
Wed 04/17/2019 BO +3.82%
Fri 02/15/2019 BO +2.97%
Tue 10/02/2018 BO -3.81% Biggest DOWN
Tue 07/10/2018 BO +4.57% Biggest UP
Thu 04/26/2018 BO -0.21%
Tue 02/13/2018 BO -0.78%
Wed 10/04/2017 BO +1.16%
Tue 07/11/2017 BO +0.57%
Avg (+ or -) 2.13%
Bias 0.79%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 32.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday 7/17 per TOS): 126.73 to 137.27 (+/- 4.0%)
Based on AVERAGE five-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.19 to 134.81
Based on MAXIMUM five-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.6%): 125.97 to 138.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 126.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
WFC Covered Calls
Sold 1 WFC 07/17/2020 28.50 Covered Call @ 0.17
Sold 2 WFC 07/17/2020 29.00 Covered Calls @ 0.15.
Sold 2 WFC 07/17/2020 29.50 Diagonal Calls @ 0.11.
With the stock at 24.50, the only reason the premiums are this high is that #Earnings are BMO on 07/14/2020
SPY
#ShortPuts – Filled on the bounce…
Bought to Close SPY JUL 17 2020 285.0 Put @ .25 (sold for 2.80)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 10th 3055/3075-3215/3235 condors for 1.35, IV 20%, SPX 3152, ∆ -.07, +.06
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Taking profits while we have a little volatility. Also adding next week…
Bought to Close UVXY JUL 10 2020 29.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.40 and 1.45)
Sold UVXY JUL 17 2020 28.5 Puts @ .95
Sold UVXY JUL 17 2020 29.0 Puts @ 1.17
Still short 30’s for tomorrow…
MU
BTO the 2022, 60 call at 7.29 and sold an August 21, 65 call at .14 cents. I plan to sell the short dated calls to pay for the LEAP.
XRX Covered Call
Bought 100 XRX / Sold 1 XRX 07/17/2020 15.0 Covered Call @ 14.21 Net Debit.
I’ve been waiting on this one to retrace to the old low.
#Earnings on 7/28. P/E at 7.00. Yield at 6.50%
VXX Diagonal
Sold 1 VXX Jul 17 2020 41.00 Call @ 0.57.
Waiting for this week’s calls @ 38 and 40 to expire before writing more.
COST ROKU SPY ULTA
#ShortPuts – A few today…
COST: Taking profits a week early
Bought to Close COST JUL 17 2020 290.0 Put @ .18 (sold for 3.20)
ROKU: Thinning the herd
Bought to Close ROKU JUL 10 2020 115.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 2.20)
SPY: Taking profits a week early
Bought to Close SPY JUL 17 2020 275.0 Put @ .11 (sold for 2.85)
ULTA: Heading back in small and hopefully safe…prior to earnings
Sold ULTA AUG 21 2020 155.0 Put @ 2.90
WBA Covered Call
Bought 100 WBA / Sold 1 WBA 07/17/2020 40.50 Covered Call @ 38.47 Net Debit
Earning were disappointing but revenues were up Y/Y and they raised the dividend by a penny per quarter
TRADES:
SDGR STO 8/21/20 95.0 CALL @9.70
SDGR STO 8/21/20 100 CALL @8.00
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Bought to Open $SPX July 15th 3140/3160-3170/3190 condors for 17.20, with SPX at 3167.
Wasn’t filled on trying to sell my put side on the lows…. I called the pullback but thought it would go a bit deeper.
#SPX1dte Expiring: July 8th 3045/3065-3205/3225 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
SQ NVTA Puts
#shortputs
$SQ STO 7/10/124 put at .63
$SQ STO 7/17/125 put at 2.80
$NVTA STO 8/21 30 put at 2.10
VXX
#ShortPuts – Can’t use UVXY in this account so going with VXX. Planning on being more active on the put side of these at least out through the election. Half size to start…
Sold VXX JUL 17 2020 31.5 Puts @ .85
Closing IWM
Bought to close $IWM 150/155 bear call spread @ .25. Sold for 1.29 on 6/19.
SPY Rolls
Bought to close 1 SPY 07/08/2020 306.0 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/15/2020 308.0 Call @ 0.13 Credit plus 2 more points on the strike.
Bought to close 1 SPY 07/08/2020 307.0 Call / Sold 1 SPY 07/15/2020 310.0 Call @ 0.22 Credit plus 3 more points on the strike.
#SPYLadder
WBA Earnings
Diagonal Credit Spread
Sold to open WBA Jul 10 2020 40.00 Puts @ $0.43 / Bought WBA Jul 17 2020 30.00 Puts @ $0.02 for a 0.41 net credit.
#Earnings tomorrow.
WBA is 42.60 and has a nice divvy and is not all that far from the yearly low.
If the short put goes bad, I can roll it at least once because the throw-away long position is a week longer.
LABU
#ShortPuts – Still decent premium in this at much lower levels. Jumping back in on the little selloff. Selling outside the expected move and below the 50ma down near the 200ma.
Sold LABU JUL 31 2020 47.5 Puts @ 1.60
MDLZ DiagBFly
BTC MDLZ July 10: 51 short straddle @ $0.83 (originally sold for $1.32)
STO MDLZ July 17: 51 short straddle @ $1.50
Learnt not to wait until OpEx Friday to manage these weekly options. Getting lucky so something is about to happen.
Cover is the Jan 2022 long 40 put / 65 call strangle.
#closing TSLA TDA raised maintenance…
#closing TSLA
TDA raised maintenance requirements on TSLA significantly. I was forced to buy back my short, August 335 call, couldn’t buy anything long, ouch, pretty big loss.
SPX 7-dte
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX June 8th 3130/3150 call spreads for 16.85. Condors bought last Wednesday for 17.10. I’m taking a small loss now on the possibility of a roll over and going negative. If we do that in the next hour or two I should be able to get some decent premium for selling the 3120/3100 put side.
LABU STMP
#ShortPuts – Book ’em!
Bought to Close LABU JUL 10 2020 47.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.90)
Bought to Close STMP JUL 17 2020 150.0 Put @ .30 (sold for 3.53)
WBA earnings analysis
#Earnings $WBA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 2, 2020 BO -6.29%
Jan. 8, 2020 BO -5.83%
Oct. 28, 2019 BO +0.68%
June 27, 2019 BO +4.08% Biggest UP
April 2, 2019 BO -12.80% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2018 BO -5.02%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO -1.94%
June 28, 2018 BO -9.90%
March 28, 2018 BO +2.47%
Jan. 4, 2018 BO -5.17%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.07%
June 29, 2017 BO +1.66%
Avg (+ or -) 4.91%
Bias -2.92% significant negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 42.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 39.70 to 45.30 (+/- 6.6%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 40.41 to 44.59
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.8%): 37.06 to 47.94
Based on UP max only (+4.1%): 44.23
Open to requests for other symbols.
BBBY earnings analysis
#Earnings $BBBY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 15, 2020 AC +18.01% Biggest UP
Jan. 8, 2020 AC -19.21%
Oct. 2, 2019 AC +2.69%
July 10, 2019 AC -3.03%
April 10, 2019 AC -8.75%
Jan. 9, 2019 AC +16.55%
Sept. 26, 2018 AC -20.99% Biggest DOWN
June 27, 2018 AC -3.81%
April 11, 2018 AC -19.95%
Dec. 20, 2017 AC -12.49%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -15.87%
June 22, 2017 AC -12.12%
Avg (+ or -) 12.79%
Bias -6.58%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 10.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 8.26 to 11.74 (+/- 17.4%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 8.72 to 11.28
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.0%): 7.90 to 12.10
Based on UP max only (+18.0%): 11.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
VXX Diagonal Calls
Sold VXX 07/10/2020 40.0 Calls @ 0.21
Sold 1 VXX 07/10/2020 38.0 Call @ 0.38.
Looking to balance out my short put exposure.
VXX at 33.38
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 3045/3065-3205/3225 condors for 1.10, IV 19%, SPX 3047, deltas -.04, +.06
ROKU
#ShortPuts – Still trying to talk this one down…
Sold ROKU JUL 24 2020 115.0 Put @ 2.07
RAD Roll
#coveredcalls
$RAD BTC 18.50 call and STO 7/24 19 call at added .05 credit.
AMZN call spread
Sold $AMZN 7/17 3110/3130 bear call spread @ 5.20 with the stock around 3021.
LABU Put / NEO Call Roll / PFE Strangle
#shortputs
$LABU STO 7/24 51.5 put at 1.60
#coveredcalls
$NEO BTC 7/17/35 call and STO 8/21 40 call at .40 debit. Stock at 35.49
#shortstrangles
$PFE STO 7/10 34/34.5 strangle at .61
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close NVDA JUL 17 2020 330.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 3.55)
EWZ
#ShortPuts – Bolsonaro tested positive so got a tiny pullback. Adding here…
Sold EWZ JUL 31 2020 27.5 Puts @ .76
EWZ DiagBfly
Early management of the short sale, taking profits & rolling out to sell some additional premium
BTC EWZ July 10: 30 straddle @ $1.30 (originally sold for $1.90)
STO EWZ July 17: 30 straddle @ $2.04
The short straddle is covered by a long EWZ Sep 18: 24 put / 30 call strangle.
CHWY
STO August 21, 45 puts at 2.70
SPY
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close SPY JUL 17 2020 280.0 Put @ .25 (sold for 3.35)
TSLA call spread
Sold $TSLA 7/17 1450/1470 bear call spread @ 5.00 with the stock around 1368.
TSLA
Please sit down before you read this…At 9:07 AM, CST, TSLA is down 26 points!
The moon is in the 7th house
SPXpirations
#SPX7dteLong $SPX July 6th 3045/3065 call spread expired with full credit of 20.00. Condors bought last Monday for 18.05. I wasn’t able to place one for next Monday; will do it tomorrow.
#SPX1dte July 6th 3060/3040 put credit and 3215/3235 call debit #RiskReversal expired with no additional profit… keeping the .30 credit that I placed it for on Friday.
SPY Rollup
Bought to close 1 SPU 07/06/2020 306.0 Call / Sold 07/15/2020 308.0 Call @ 0.17 Credit plus 2 more points on the short strike.
#SPYLadder
KSS SLB Covered Calls
Sold KSS 07/10/2020 22.0 Covered Calls @ 0.46
Sold SLB 07/10/2020 20.0 Covered Calls @ 0.07
ADS AAL Covered Calls
Sold 1 ADS 07/10/2020 50.0 Covered Call @ 0.40
Sold 1 AAL 07/10/2020 13.50 Covered Call @ 0.34
A TRADE:
CIEN BTO a little stock @56.58
CIEN Just broke a double…
CIEN Just broke a double top on the Point & Figure chart, a buy signal.
TRADES:
OSTK STO 7/10/20 41.0 CALLS 1.70
OSTK STO 7/10/20 43.0 CALLS @1.20
SDGR BTO STOCK @94.0 An add to.
PLAY STO 7/10/20 14.0 CALLS @.22
PLAY STO 710/20 11.5 PUTS @.25
LABU
#ShortPuts – This week’s looks good so throwing a starter out there. Hopefully get a chance to add…
Sold LABU JUL 24 2020 47.5 Puts @ 1.50
HAL Put NUGT Call Rolled
#shortputs
$HAL BTC 7/17 15 put and STO 7/24 15 put at .13 added credit
#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 7/17 80 call and STO 7/31 82 call at 1.40 added credit
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Breaking out to all time highs. With next week’s 330 looking safe I’m going out to the week before earnings and selling at the rapidly rising 50ma and slightly outside the expected move. This isn’t my usual style so let’s also add this hashtag:
Sold NVDA AUG 07 2020 350.0 Put @ 4.49
LULU
VXX
Question for Jeff What is you thoughts on The Jan 21 20 Puts some of are holding. In this VIX environment should we be taking some profits when available or are the a good hold?
Weekend ideas
TNA
#ShortPuts – Once again couldn’t quite get this one over the finish line. Try again next week…
Rolled TNA JUL 02 2020 27.5 Puts to JUL 10 2020 27.5 Puts @ 1.15 credit (2.85 total now)
OPTION EXPIRATIONS: 7/2/20, all below…
OPTION EXPIRATIONS: 7/2/20, all below expired worthless except as noted.
APT 21.5 CALLS STO @.90
NCLH 16.0 PUTS STO @1.35 Rolled out last week.
PLAY 12.5 PUTS STO @.25
PLAY 17.5 CALLS STO @.45
SWBI 17.0 PUTS STO @.40
SWBI 20.0 CALLS STO @.38 Stock will be called
WFC 24.5 PUTS STO @.46
WFC 27.0 CALLS STO @.39
AAL 13.0 CALLS STO @.60
AAL 13.5 CALLS STO @.49
Happy Holiday to all.
Expirations etc
OX NFLX 420/430 #BuPS – Was STO @1.13 on 6/24
Rolled SLB Jul-02-2020 $20 #CoveredCalls // Jul-10-2020 $19 @0.32 Credit, but lower strike. Basis is $16.23.
OX SPX Jul-02-2020 3190/3200 #BeCS – STO @1.00 this morning, thanks @Jeff !!
OX Work Jul-02-2020 $34 #Covered Call – was STO @1.33 on 6/19. Replaced with Jul-10-2020 $31.5 @ 0.48
Happy 4th.
SPX trades
#SPX7dte Bought to Open $SPX July 10th 3125/3145-3155/3175 condors for 17.00, with SPX at 3148.
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal – going for a bullish trade given the low $VIX
Sold $SPX June 6th 3060/3040 put spreads for .80
Bought $SPX June 6th 3215/3235 call spreads for .50
Placed as one trade for .30 credit. IV 14%, SPX 3141, put short delta -.09, call long delta +.04
Expiring: June 2nd 3190/3210 call spreads, sold this morning for 1.20.
VXX last roll
With less than an hour until expiration I decided not to chance riding this out to the bitter end –
Bought to close 07/02/2020 32.0 Puts / Sold 07/10/2020 29.0 Puts @ 0.05 Credit plus 3.00 lower strike for next week.
All my puts are rolled now and my 42,44,46 short calls will expire.
Ready for the next pullback in the market now.
NKLA Iron Fly
Over on OMM they’re getting filled on this trade. Took it in a a couple of accounts. Seems impossible:
Filled on $NKLA 8/21 45/55/65 iron butterfly for 10.40 credit. You read that right. Credit exceeding the wing width. Can’t figure out how that happened, I’ve never seen it before.
VXX Rolldown Puts
Bought to close VXX 07/02/2020 32.50 Puts / Sold VXX 07/10/2020 30.50 Puts @ 0.04 Credit plus 2.00 better strike.
Stock is 31.65
WBA Rollup
Bought to close WBA 07/02/2020 42.0 Covered Calls/ Sold WBA 07/10/2020 42.50 Covered Call @ 0.89 Credit
#Earnings on 07/09
Options Bistro 