EWW

#SyntheticStock – Core position is all the way out to 2020 requiring .10 per week to cover max loss. Weak market so I will continue aggressive selling. Pretty good weekly income while it grinds around. Gonna throw this out as an example of how I’m trying to keep the big picture on how these will hopefully turn out some day.

10 lot Jan 2020 48/48/46 synthetic with max loss now reduced to about 8900. That’s actually a little high too since I rolled a small loss on a strangle into the synthetic cost.

30 cents per week in sales for the next 94 weeks brings in 28200. Assuming max loss then total gains are 19300. Over two years against 3800 in margin is about 150 percent annualized on margin. These are rough numbers but still something to keep in mind looking on down the road. Do that in 10 different underlyings and you’ve got a pretty good annual income that’s (hopefully) low risk. Running the numbers for 40 cents per week and 50 cents per week really starts getting interesting especially when factoring in the possibility of not taking max loss!

It’s tough watching the drawdowns when the core is getting hit but looking out further helps a lot. If the stock tanks right after you set the trade the drawdown will be pretty tough to watch but realizing it is capped with plenty of time to continue selling helps a lot. Adding up the max loss on all the positions is a nice way to figure out what your absolute bottom could look like overall also. Knowing this will help control position size. Each weekly sale over and over again reduces that ultimate max drawdown number.

Bought to Close EWW MAR 29 2018 51.5 Calls @ .03 (sold for .40)

Sold EWW APR 6 2018 51.0 Calls @ .50

FB

If the stock finishes up on the day with the volume, we may have a tradable bottom.

#pietrade

SWKS Aug

Sold $SWKS Aug 17 70 puts @ 1.25
#FallingKnife

TQQQ

#ShortPuts #IRA – Thanks again @jsd501 …..

Sold TQQQ MAY 18 2018 80.0 Put @ 2.00
Sold TQQQ SEP 21 2018 80.0 Put @ 6.50

Closing BKNG

This one has been hanging around way too long, mainly because of the lack of liquidity in the options. Finally got the opportunity to take it off for 75%+ profit. I’m probably going to avoid trading the options on this stock going forward.
Bought to close $BKNG Apr 6 2220/2240 BeCS @ .58. Sold for 2.55 on 2/28.

#ironcondor AMZN 100% IV rank,…

#ironcondor AMZN

100% IV rank, down another 70 today sold April 20, 1180/1190/1600/1610 for 2.00

Realized equity volatility highest in 2 years

From Seeking Alpha:

The S&P 500 has moved more than 1% in 20 sessions over the last two months vs. a total of 10 such moves in the prior 12 months before that (via Michael Batnick).

With rising volatility, exotic ETFs are seeing increased volumes, most notably inverse leveraged technology products. Volumes for funds like the 3x short Nasdaq 100 is touching multi-year highs, with investors betting on both sides of the trade.

“One theory for SPY and VXX’s lack of heightened volume might be that the very big fish aren’t worried or are already hedged, and that the sort of mid-sized institutional crowd is playing this,” says Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas. “It’s the quick buck trading group.”

ETFs: VXX, UVXY, XIV, TVIX, SVXY, VIXY, ZIV, VXZ, VIXM, VMAX, VMIN, VIIX, CVOL, XVZ, TVIZ, XXV, IVOP, VIIZ

#shortputs WBA sold May 18,…

#shortputs WBA

sold May 18, 60 put for .74

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Apr 27th 2800/s825 call spreads for 1.50. Looks like it filled at the high tick of the day.

#volatility What a day for…

#volatility

What a day for trading volatility. I’m buying and selling UVXY and calls the next couple of weeks out. Range is $19.50 to $21.50 seemingly heading higher. Nice short-term trades. I’ve closed March 29 $20 puts for nice gain. It sold for $1 as late as $20.15 this morning.

NVDA

#ShortStrangles – Rolling the call side down to near all time highs for additional credit…

Rolled NVDA APR 27 2018 265.0 Calls to APR 27 2018 250.0 Calls @ 1.73 credit

TQQQ

STO January 2019, 80 puts @ 9.10, but staying small and scaling in. This ETF will be a long term trade for me if I am assigned.

RH earnings

#Earnings Closed $RH Mar 29th 65 puts for .05. Is it possible to trade this one for earnings without getting shredded on the call side? Seems not. My 91.5 calls slightly ITM. Will roll or wait for tomorrow.

Sold the strangles yesterday for 2.53.

TSLA

#ShortStrangles – Even though it’s only a one lot strangle, I’m going to play it cautiously. Closing the short put and will continue to sell calls or call spreads to get back to even as long is the stock is below about 300. Could be setting myself up for a whip saw but there’s no telling how low it can go. Once a little bit of good news comes out I may start selling the put side again.

Bought to Close TSLA APR 27 2018 312.5 Put @ 54.90

Sold against next week’s 300 call. Total premium received so far of 22.65.

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign I was trying to stick to my rule of only selling at extremes. My suspicion was that the peak above positive for the morning was the extreme high for the day. For once, I was correct (so far).

Sold $SPX Apr 13th 2720/2745 call spreads for 3.15. Part of a #CondorRoll from puts stopped yesterday. Will try to sell put side on or near an “extreme” low.

Good morning

I am not doing much these days.

FYI tt joint accounts announced…

FYI tt joint accounts announced in an email today:
“Joining Finances has Never Been More Exciting…
The wait is over and you can finally do just that with a tastyworks joint brokerage account. And the good news is, it only takes a few short minutes to open an account!”

“P.S. We are now currently offering SEP IRAs in addition to, Individual Margin accounts, Traditional IRA accounts, Roth IRA accounts,Trust accounts, Corporate accounts and Joint Accounts. Custodial accounts will be added shortly.”

SPX whipsaw

#SPXcampaign I have never been so whipsawed in my trading career. I have been stopped out at extremes too many times to count. I am forced now to take a new approach:

1. Tone down the aggression.
2. Only sell at extremes. How do I define extremes? That’s not always easy, but I would say yesterday’s close and today’s close would qualify.
3. Try some cheap long spreads, purchase at extremes. The amount I’m getting eaten alive with short spreads makes me always wish I’d been long rather than short. Need to try it.

That will have to do until VIX gets back below 17.76 (at least), and not comfortable going back to aggressive strategies until it’s below 12.61.

Today:
Stopped $SPX Apr 27th 2770/2795 call spreads for 3.75. Sold yesterday for 1.60. This was well over 4.00 at the highs, which is my stop point, so at least I waited for some pullback.
#ReverseRoll – plan was to sell a condor as a roll, I was filled on put side, then never filled on call side. And then, I had to stop out. Great illustration of how difficult this strategy is in this market.
Sold Apr 4th 2560/2535 put spreads for 1.95. Stopped later for 5.35.

Stopped Apr 13th 2550/2525 put spreads for 5.95. Sold yesterday in a #CondorRoll for 6.30, when a CALL spread was stopped.

Stopped Apr 27th 2550/2525 put spreads for 2.50. Sold yesterday for 1.75. At least I got out on this one at a bounce.

TRTN

BTC Oct 19 #CoveredCalls @ 1.45 sold at 2.45 on March 16.

#earnings #shortstraddle RH At the…

#earnings #shortstraddle RH

At the bell,sold April 20, 75 straddle for 14.25

UVXY calls

#VXXGame Sold a couple against my far-OTM long hedges:
Sold $UVXY May 18th 25 call for 2.60
Sold $UVXY Jun 15th 30 call for 2.50

This product is much less crazy since they reduced the leverage.

TQQQ

STO January 2019, 60 puts @4.50 with stock trading at 140.

Lowest TICK readings since Feb 8th.

This is most whipsawing I can remember seeing in years.

#fallingknife, #volatility

CELG

#SyntheticStock – Getting a jump start on next week’s sale. Haven’t close this week’s yet and since it’s in an IRA I’ll need to sell a spread instead. Trade is a shorter one only out to July. Sitting well below the core and needing 36 cents per week to cover max loss.

Sold CELG APR 6 2018 90.0/95.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .53

TSLA

#ShortStrangle – Rolled the put side out and down yesterday. Selling calls against it….with 5 or 6 dollars a week available on the call side the put shouldn’t get hurt too badly.

Bought to Close TSLA MAR 29 2018 305.0 Call @ .80

Sold TSLA APR 6 2018 300.0 Call @ 6.05

Position is Apr 6 300 call and Apr 27 312.5 put @ 22.65 credit

Stock gets in between the strikes again then that’s good. Stock keeps dropping then my basis on the short put is 289.85 with 3 more weeks to sell before deciding on the put.

NVDA

#ShortStrangles – Been looking to get back in this thing. Self driving technology put on hold temporarily is the rumor. Selling strangles 30 days out and before earnings. Puts below the 200ma and calls well above all time highs.

Sold NVDA APR 27 2018 195.0/265.0 Strangles @ 4.15

RH earnings

#Earnings Selling $RH March 29th 65/91.5 strangles for about 2.40. Selling legs separately (1.40/1.35 for puts, 1.20 or lower for calls).

This has long been a big mover, so proceed cautiously. Over last 12 quarters, Biggest UP move: 44.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -25.7%, Average move: 12.6%. My strikes are +19.6% and -15.0% OTM.

#pietrade UTX widening out the…

#pietrade

UTX widening out the strangle. Rolled the 24 DTE 125/130 strangle out to 38 DTE at 122/132 for 0.36 credit. 5 points wider and more time to manage if needed. I had pulled it in with the drop but now need to give it more room.

UVXY

#BearCallSpreads – A small one out to April…

Sold UVXY APR 20 2018 24.0/34.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .70

TLT

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Just to give it a little more room….

Bought to Close TLT MAR 29 2018 120.5 Calls @ .31 (sold for .62)

Sold TLT APR 6 2018 121.0 Calls @ .40

Jeff is Bistro working?

Jeff is Bistro working?

FDX

Thank you Jeff I closed the 270 for 0.02 waiting for the 240

Closed Early / Long Calls / Short Calls / SPX Campaign

Closed Early
$SPX BTC 3/29 2600/2625 BUPS at 6.00. STO at 1.60 Left a few open. See what tomorrow brings.
$FB BTC 4/20 155/165 BUPS at 4.50 STO at 1.80 Should have kept some.

#longcalls
$MSFT BTO 4/20 95/97.50 BUCS at 1.05
#shortcalls
$LABU STO 3/29 90 calls at 2.20 (Covered)
$FB STO 4/20 170/162.50 BECS at 2.00
#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 4/27 2795/2770 BECS at 2.20 Thank you @jeffcp66
$SPX STO 4/27 2400/2425 BUPS at 1.90 Thank you @jeffcp66

SPX roll

#SPXcampaign
Stopped: $SPX Apr 6th 2700/2725 call spreads for 6.00. Sold for 3.10 on Friday.
#CondorRoll: Sold Apr 13th 2525/2550/2745/2770 condors for 6.30.

FAS

#SyntheticStock #LongCalls – With my margin hog AMZN position out of the way now it’s time to start looking for new opportunities. I’d like to stay involved in the banks so this seems like a good way to do it. Wasn’t having much luck out in 2020 with the market makers for a 2 strike wide synthetic. Instead, just going to Jan 2019 and buying the straight calls. (only 5 wide strikes in 2019 anyway). As @hcgdavis pointed out, the weekly premium is really nice in this ticker.

Bought to Open FAS JAN 18 2019 65.0 Calls @ 10.50

Max loss of 10.50 with 42 weeks to run so need 25 cents per week to cover.

So: (premiums are so good that this is a freebie. 42 weeks to go is AFTER this week…crazy!)

Sold FAS MAR 29 2018 65.5 Calls @ .85

XLY

#SyntheticStock – With my margin hog AMZN position out of the way now it’s time to start looking for new opportunities. Whiz pointed this one out the other day. AMZN is a big chunk of it so a cheaper way to stay involved. Pretty nice weekly premium as well.

Bought to Open XLY JAN 18 2019 102/102/100 Synthetic @ 6.50

Max loss of 8.50 with 42 weeks to run so need 20 cents per week to cover.

So:

Sold XLY APR 6 2018 103.5 Calls @ .73

#pietrade FAS CC 68 CC…

#pietrade

FAS CC 68 CC expired worthless on Fri. STO the 67 CC with 11 DTE for 0.95. Brings cost basis down to 66.25.

Hope to start taking some profits on the strangles later this week on ANDV, NSC, UTX (whipsaw on this one, I rolled the call down Friday and now rebounding.

TSLA put spread

Taking a shot with IV at its 52 week high (IVR=100). Sold $TSLA Apr 20 265/255 BuPS for 1.40. Short strike is at 20 delta.

SLB

#Earnings – For anyone trading along in this, the earnings date is now confirmed for Apr 20th. I’ll be trying to keep all the weekly sales prior to that and then decide whether to sell, close, or sit out the announcement.

First one in my current positions list to confirm a date…

TSLA

#ShortStrangles – Fun little single contract position I’ve been playing with….rolling every week to inverted or straddle or strangle or whatever is needed.

Currently sitting at this week’s 332.50/305.00 Inverted @ 17.40 total premium

Weekly premium is through the roof so taking a more traditional approach. Rolling the put side out and down to what I hope is just prior to earnings. Letting this week’s short call side hopefully expire and then continuing the weekly call sales against the short put.

Rolled TSLA MAR 29 2018 322.5 Put to APR 27 2018 312.5 Put @ .40 debit

DG

#SyntheticStock – This week’s 95.5s look safe so adding next week’s sale into the pop.

Sold DG APR 6 2018 93.0 Calls @ .95

SLB

#syntheticStock – Selling up into resistance again…

Bought to Close SLB MAR 29 2018 68.0 Calls @ .03 (sold for .27)

Sold SLB APR 6 2018 65.0 Calls @ .90

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Apr 27th 2770/2795 call spreads for 1.60. Playing things at the standard distance OTM (.10-.15 delta) while the market is wily.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Based on the way this market has been acting, lows that create a bounce this big result in a multi-day rally. While I’m not saying the coast is clear for new all-time highs, we should remain buoyant to bullish at least for a few days. So I’m selling puts rather than calls on an up day (however, the weakness since the initial pop is making this less certain). If we reach back toward 2700 I’ll be playing it more neutrally until the Downside Warning gets canceled, which is not until VIX closed below 12.61.

Sold to Open Apr 27th 2425/2400 put spreads for 1.75. Already up above 2.00 since we’ve sold off from the highs. If you wish to follow, I suggest going with the 2400/2375.

CRUS REGN VXX

#SyntheticStock #LongCalls #BearPutSpreads #BullPutSpreads – Selling what I didn’t get a chance to on Friday. Glad I waited on these. Going out another week to take advantage of the entire 3 day weekend…

Sold CRUS APR 6 2018 43.5 Calls @ .50

Sold REGN APR 6 2018 340.0 Calls @ 2.11

Sold VXX APR 6 2018 40.5/37.5 Bull Put Spreads @ .47

Econ Calendar for week of 3/26/18

Be sure to periodically click “HOME/Refresh” to keep Bistro features updated.

Screen Shot 2018-03-26 at 5.19.31 AM

Not done with the Mark…

Not done with the Mark Sebastain book but a few things about adjustments, may need them. Unfortunately I have a few trades that will take me a while to unwind so won’t be able to do these for a while.

Butterflies, adjust once you are at the long strike. Basically buy some more and the ratio will boost returns.

Credit spreads, leave enough space between the strikes so you can buy in between. Usually a 3-4 contract buy on a 10 lot will flatten your deltas. If it then keeps moving you have a back ratio and any further movement will increase your profits. Other option is just back ratio the spread, say buy back 1 short for every 3-4 long contracts.

Naked options, the best way we have found is to turn them into a #fuzzy.

Full disclosure, I have not had time or the opportunity to do any of these real time, but they look like they will work in thinkback. Most of the time it flattens your loss but don’t expect a huge profit on an adjustment except in the case of a continued move if you ratio it.

Some people may get margin calls over the weekend, Sunday open could be interesting and I might take a directional trade then. Have to see.

Have a good weekend.

#spycraft

Options Expiration and Final Trades 3/23/18

#SPXcampaign. Cleared out most put spreads for expected lower levels Monday. I only rolled one as I’d like to sell based on Monday’s open.

Stopped $SPX Apr 19th 2540/2515 put spreads for 5.40. Sold for yesterday for 2.85.
#CondorRoll: Sold Apr 6th 2700/2725 call spreads for 3.10, and Apr 6th 2475/2450 put spreads for 2.80.

Stopped Apr 19th 2475/2450 put spreads for 3.10. Sold yesterday for 1.80.

Closed Mar 26th 2680/2705 for .30. Sold this morning for 3.10.

Stopped March 26th 2575/2550 put spreads for 6.05. Sold yesterday for 1.75.

Bought to Open March 29th 2475/2450 LONG put spreads for 2.15. Will take profits with any big gap or move down Monday.

Bought to close March 23rd 2585 puts for .35. Sold in a #Condor Roll on Monday. Thought I didn’t need to worry about this one.

#VXXGame: Sold $UVXY Jan 2019 65 call for 3.75… thanks @optioniceman and @ramie77 for the idea

#Earnings BTC $FDX Mar 23rd 240 puts for 6.50. Sold in a strangle for 1.75 on Tuesday. Missed my chance to close for cheap on Wednesday. #Rolling: Sold Apr 20th 235 puts for 6.75. Also sold a Apr 20th 255 call for 1.15. Will add more calls on strength.

#OptionsExpiration
$SPX 2790/2815 call spreads
$VRTX (formerly covered) 177.5 call

Still about 40 points from…

Still about 40 points from the Feb lows but they ripped /ES down into the close. However, momentum shifted on the 15 minute on the last candle. I am not the directional guy so who knows what it means for futures open Sunday night 🙂

#spx Close below 200 MA…

#spx

Close below 200 MA is not a good sign.

#UVXY Probably should have waited…

#UVXY
Probably should have waited for Monday
STO UVXY Jan18’19 75 CALL 2.90

KHC

New low on this dividend stock.

#short put Taking a chance…

#short put
Taking a chance on UVXY Sell to open March 23 $19,50 put for 0.15. I expect to get assigned at net cost 19.35 when asking price was 19.75

UTX strangle

Rolled the 28 DTE 134 call down to 130 for 0.56 credit. Now have the 125/130 strangle.

Ever notice how loosing trades take up way more time and energy than trades you just leave alone?

Goal is to close early for profit in 1-3 weeks.

Did not watch the market today, big swings still.

UVXY calls

I know I said I was limiting the naked call selling in volatility but this one just seemed too good.
Sold $UVXY Jan 18 2019 75 calls @ 2.75.
Highest strike. Thanks for the idea @optioniceman.

AMZN

#SyntheticStock – Big change today….finally deciding on booking this after being in it for quite a few months. It’s a margin hog in the #IRA so I’m hoping for better places to put the cash to work on this pullback. It’s been a struggle working the ITM weekly up but finally got an acceptable profit out of it…(nothing like it could’ve been though).

Sold AMZN JUN 21 2019 1350.0/1350.0/910.0 Synthetic
Bought AMZN APR 27 2018 1350.0 Call

Total gain of 61 points…

New lows in…

$FB since July
$AAPL since mid Feb

and probably just about every other stock.

MHK Aug puts

Sold $MHK Aug 17 175 puts @ 2.00. Delta 9 with a strike below the 2 year lows in the stock.
#FallingKnife

Not good

#VIXIndicator Just a heads up that closes like this on a Friday don’t make for great Mondays. This will make 2 uglies in a row after yesterday… similar to that fateful weekend in August 2015.

Oct AMGN adding at a lower strike

Sold $AMGN Oct 19 130 put @ 2.00

DWDP Sep puts

Sold $DWDP Sep 21 55 puts @ 1.45
#FallingKnife

#longstock Sold UVXY for $18.82…

#longstock
Sold UVXY for $18.82 couple of hours ago, bought yesterday for 17.82.

I also rolled up my UVXY March 23 #17.5 call to March 29 $19 call (now naked),
I’ll wait for a solid buy point point – FALLING FAST.

Closing some DUST

Starting to whittle down my exposure.
Bought to close $DUST Jun 15 45 call @ .40. Sold for 2.80 on 12/17.

SPX day trade

#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Mar 23rd 2550/2575 call spreads for 1.75. Sold for 9.00 earlier today.

Adding CAH

Selling Sep to add to my short Jun 50 put
Sold $CAH Sep 21 50 puts @ 1.35
#FallingKnife

MS July

Sold $MS Jul 20 46 puts @ 1.04 with the stock at 53.25.
#FallingKnife

#ironcondor DIA followed Fauzia at…

#ironcondor DIA

followed Fauzia at TT May 18, 254/264/217/227 for 2.50

Dropbox is trading

under symbol $DBX for about 7 minutes now. Already up 44%!

#earnings MU closed April 20,…

#earnings MU
closed April 20, 59.50 straddle sold yesterday for a gain of .90, concerned the bottom could fall out.

Livin’ on the Edge

#SPXcampaign Although these have not worked out for me this week, need to get my fix. Since I feel we will likely go lower, I…

sold $SPX March 23rd 2650/2675 call spreads for 9.00 when SPX was at 2652. If these expire worthless it will make up for the 2 call spreads that beat me this week.

TLT

#SyntheticShort – The weekly hedge against a small synthetic short I’ve been playing with…

Bought to Close TLT MAR 23 2018 117.5 Puts @ .01 (sold for .49)

Sold TLT APR 6 2018 118.5 Puts @ .41

LUV

#SyntheticStock – Pretty good week in this ticker in spite of the selloff. Booked 80 cents with the double selling. Not bad when only 14 cents is required. Looking to next week now…

Sold LUV MAR 29 2018 58.0 Calls @ .45

GLD

#SyntheticStock – Been trying to get out of this at even or at least reduce the size a little. Fought the hedge the entire time. Until two days ago I thought I was successful but now on another massive run. Rolling the weekly all the way out to May to give it some room. See how the next week or two goes….keeps running I can probably close the position. If it tanks I’ll have to roll it back in and down. Looks to be at resistance but you never know.

Rolled GLD MAR 23 2018 125.0 Calls to MAY 18 2018 127.0 Calls @ .06 credit

AZO

#BullCallSpreads – Letting this week’s expire so selling next week…cost basis reduction in the Jan Bull Call Spread…

Sold AZO MAR 29 2018 660.0/680.0 Bear Call Spread @ 2.12

AAOI

#ShortStrangles #SyntheticStock – Still a dog and I’m still selling. Getting to the point now where a massive whipsaw is a concern (or a big buyout similar to GMCR back in the day). Letting the leash out a little and selling spreads. Still bringing in the min needed to cover the synthetic side of the repair. It’s a little less than I need for the short strange side but those can always be rolled indefinitely. Also letting this week’s short calls expire…

Sold AAOI APR 20 2018 27.0/31.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .65