STO December 40 put at 1.75
Recent Updates Page 236
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding here…
Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 37.0/47.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.40
Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 40.0/50.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.35
SPX / AMD / UVXY
STO UVXY 35/45 Nov 15 2019 #BeCS @1.65
SPX 1-dte 2870/2890 put spread stopped @4.05 when spx dropped below 2900. Condors sold yesterday @1.10. Holding Call side.
Rolled AMD Oct 18 2019 34 // Nov 15 2019 #shortputs @0.45
UBER puts stopped
#PerpetualRollingStrangles BTC $UBER Oct 4th 31 puts for 2.35. Calls previously closed for .05. Strangles sold for .90 on 9/11. This strategy has worked well on UBER, but will wait a few days before starting a new one. My naked puts on $CHWY have NOT worked; underwater. The Upside Warning had me overly confident on both of these.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Easing back into this one…
Sold SPY NOV 15 2019 275.0 Put @ 3.35
#earnings #closing SFIX Closed Oct….
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Stop level was breached quickly this morning. BTC $SPX Oct 2nd 2890/2870 put spreads for 2.95. Condors sold yesterday for .867.Also having to close the Oct 4th spread. Stop was not breached yesterday but it was on the opening tick this morning.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator It seemed obvious days ago but it was just officially canceled. This is only the third total failure of the signal since 1999, out of 44 total, where the SPX made no new high after the signal fired, other than a brief intraday spike the very next day.
Schwab at zero
Okay who is with Schwab and can you find out how much SPX option commissions will be?
#earnings SFIX Sold an Oct….
#earnings SFIX
Sold an Oct. 18 20 straddle for 5.10.
#shortputs TRTN Sold Nov. 18,…
#shortputs TRTN
Sold Nov. 18, 30 put for .60
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 2870/2890-2980/3000 condors for .867, IV 13.55%, SPX 2946.
DRIP call spreads
Looking at short calls again but went with spreads in some smaller accounts to keep buying power requirements down.
Sold $DRIP 12/20 125/135 bear call spreads @ 1.31-1.33
SFIX Earnings Long Call
BTO $SFIX Oct 11 $23 Call at $1.40
Volume profile has a huge pocket above current price to about 26.50 or so, with Point of Control around 27.50. TOS has expected move at 4.33 or so at time of trade. We’ll see what happens this afternoon. YOLO!
Closing a NUGT position
Bought to close $NUGT 10/18 31 calls @ 2.07. Sold for 5.30 as a rollout on 9/20. Overall profit .93.
#fallingknife AMTD
#fallingknife
AMTD
ETFC
SCHW
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding one…
Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 35.0/45.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.27
ULTA
I rolled my October 260 covered call out to the December 285 call for a credit of 1.20 which gets me closer to my cost level of $311 from that earnings trade. I am glad it was only 1 contract.
ISM disappoints
US manufacturing economy contracts to worst level in a decade
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence
XBI
#ShortPuts – Adding…filled on the afternoon swoon.
Sold XBI NOV 01 2019 75.0 Put @ 2.10
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte . Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 2880/2905-3030/3055 condors for 2.40, IV: 14.37%, SPX 2981.
Expiring today: Sept 30th 2865/2885-3000/3020 condors, sold Friday for 1.10
LULU
STO $LULU 10/18/2019 175/185 #BuPS @1.45.
Taking profits on FDX
Bought to close 10/18 iron condor (130/140/160/170) @ 1.41. Sold for 2.52 on 9/18.
Closing PCTY Put
Closing $PCTY Nov 1 $80 Put for a scratch at $1.40. Bought last week looking for a downward shift. May revisit bearish play here, but looks like it needs more room to run up first.
Closing LULU 192.5 Call
STC $LULU Oct 18 $192.5 Call for $5.20. Bought on Friday for $4.05.
#butterfly #hedge ROKU I have…
#butterfly #hedge ROKU
I have a long suffering, inverted, Oct. 18, 85/105 strangle that is approaching break even with ROKU dropping below 105 after rocketing to the moon. I sold a 97/99/99/100 put butterfly for .34 for a little upside protection.
SHOP
#CoveredCalls – Got some stock over the weekend. Sure looks like it’s headed to the 200ma so playing the call sale for quite a bit of downside protection. Earnings still about 3 weeks away so plenty of time to adjust before then.
Sold SHOP OCT 04 2019 295.0 Call @ 14.50
SPX 1-dte NUGT
#SPX1dte
STO $SPX Sept 30th 2870/2890-3000/3020 condors for 1.00
#optionsexpiration
$SPX Sept 27 2920/2935/3010/3025 – STO @.85 yesterday.
Was too early on this – closed before things really dropped:
BTC $NUGT Oct 04 35/40 Call Vertical @0.36 Was STO @0.86 on 9/20.
Rolled $NUGT Oct 4 30.5 Put // Oct 18 29.5 put @0.65, against existing 10/18 20 put #tripledip.
#earnings #closing MU June 25,…
June 25, sold a July 19, 29/37 strangle, adjusted it 3 times ending up in an Oct. 18, inverted 37/41 strangle as it climbed from around 32 to around 50. I closed it today, making $33.63.
Yesterday I sold a jade lizard in MU, the demise of which made the above possible. There is plenty of time to turn it around if it stabilizes.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 30th 2865/2885-3000/3025 condors for 1.10, IV 12.31%, SPX 2956.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte. Bought to close $SPX Sept 27th 2935/2915 put spreads for .75. Condors sold yesterday for .95.
Closing Monday’s spread as well, and stuck with almost full loss on today’s spread.
LULU Oct 18 192.5 Call
BTO $LULU Oct 18 Call 192.5 at $4.05 – slightly Bullish, buying a call on dip today, looking to hold for a day or two and see what happens. Probably close out at $100-200 profit if and when market wakes up after the last few down days. No specific price target, looking for +$2-4 dollars in the underlying. Have a good weekend!
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Starter positions…
Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 35.0/45.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.25
Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 37.0/47.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.15
Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 40.0/50.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.08 and 1.09
Following @Iceman with the shorter term put sales against the call spreads…
Sold UVXY OCT 4 2019 25.0 Puts @ .52
EWZ
#ShortPuts – Never got a chance to add to my starter position…
Bought to Close EWZ OCT 18 2019 36.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.05)
TRADES:
RAD BTC 10/4/19 9.0 CALLS @.08
OSTK STO 10/4/19 10.5 PUTS @.43
OSTK STO 10/4/19 12.5 CALLS @.45
CHWY STO 10/4/19 26.0 ATM CALLS @.70 An experiment, to see how it acts, and to keep an eye on it. Bearish trade. One contract only.
LABU
#CoveredCalls – More basis reduction on this pig. Still working on my last hundred shares.
Bought to Close LABU OCT 04 2019 38.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 2.10)
Sold LABU OCT 18 2019 34.0 Call @ 1.81
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 2915/2935-34010/3030 condors for .95, IV: 11.80%, SPX 2980.
A TRADE:
HIIQ STO 10/18/19 21.0 PUTS @1.10
A TRADE: STO this morning,…
A TRADE: STO this morning, @.30
RAD BTC 9/27/19 10.0 CALLS @.04
A TRADE:
BYND STO 10/4/19 160/165 BeCS @.74
#earnings #jadelizard MU Sold Oct….
#earnings #jadelizard MU
Sold Oct. 18, 37/41/46 jade lizard for 1.77. I have an inverted 37/41 Oct. 18 strangle and would prefer that MU go down.
TRADES: This morning was their earnings report.
RAD STO 9/27/19 10.0 CALLS @.30
RAD STO 9/27/19 9.0 ATM CALLS @.51
MU earnings analysis
#Earnings $MU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 25, 2019 AC +13.34% Biggest UP
March 20, 2019 AC +9.61%
Dec. 18, 2018 AC -7.91%
Sept. 20, 2018 AC -2.86%
June 20, 2018 AC +0.83%
March 22, 2018 AC -7.99% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 19, 2017 AC +4.02%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC +8.51%
June 29, 2017 AC -5.11%
March 23, 2017 AC +7.40%
Dec. 21, 2016 AC +12.68%
Oct. 4, 2016 AC -0.56%
Avg (+ or -) 6.74%
Bias 2.66%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 49.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 45.62 to 52.38
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 45.70 to 52.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 42.46 to 55.54
Based on DOWN max only (-8.0%): 45.08
Open to requests for other symbols.
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Breakout failed so rolling down to the 50ma for additional premium…
Rolled REGN OCT 11 2019 307.5 Call to OCT 11 2019 295.0 Call @ 2.15 credit (7.75 total now)
SPX Monday spread
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 30th 2895/2920-3030/3055 condors for 2.30, IV 11.97%, SPX 2986.
Expiring today: Sep 25th 2890/2910-3005/3025 condors, sold yesterday for .90.
Long put PCTY (First post)
BTO $PCTY Nov 15 Put @ 1.40
Bearish on this one due to Volume Profile and software in general. Price target for next couple of weeks would be $90 – roughly a 100% return. Volume profile has resistance at $85-80 and a huge open gap until about $63.00 or so.
Thanks for the add Jeff, and thanks to everyone else for the great ideas over the years! Looking to learn and contribute as much as possible!
SBUX
I forgot to post yesterday. BTO October 90 put at 1.95because I see the chart breaking down.
AMZN
STO 1850/1860 bear call spread at 1.55 the stock is breaking down and below the 200 day MA. Also, just bought the 1730/1710 bear call spread at 8.25on 1 contract.
SPLK
BTC $SPLK 10/18/2019 125 put @ 8.8. Basically breakeven on this after a couple adjustments, but wanted to reduce risk.
Still holding $SPLK 105/115 #BuPS.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 25th 2890/2910-3005/3025 condors for .90, IV: 14.73%, SPX 2965.
SPX slap
#SPX1dte. I had an order in to close this for .95 this morning. It got down to about 1.20 before the drop happened.
BTC $SPX Sep 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 9.85. Sold for 3.00 yesterday.
Sitting on the Sept 27th 3000/2975 put spread, sold for 5.00 last week. I’m giving that some more time. If formal impeachment inquiries are announced today, I think there’s a chance the market effect will be temporary, as the process will take months, and who really knows how it would effect the economy? But certainly, I’m done with the aggressive put spreads for now.
NKE earnings analysis
#Earnings $NKE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 27, 2019 AC +0.34%
March 21, 2019 AC -6.61%
Dec. 20, 2018 AC +7.16%
Sept. 25, 2018 AC -1.28%
June 28, 2018 AC +11.12% Biggest UP
March 22, 2018 AC +0.32%
Dec. 21, 2017 AC -2.28%
Sept. 26, 2017 AC -1.91%
June 29, 2017 AC +10.96%
March 21, 2017 AC -7.05% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 20, 2016 AC +0.98%
Sept. 27, 2016 AC -3.77%
Avg (+ or -) 4.48%
Bias 0.67%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 87.25 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.82 to 91.68
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 83.34 to 91.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.1%): 77.55 to 96.95
Based on DOWN max only (-7.1%): 81.10
Open to requests for other symbols.
Heavy news day
Stocks jump from session lows after Trump says transcript of his call with the Ukraine president will be released tomorrowhttps://t.co/AQCPR2cshs pic.twitter.com/ruqqTAElER
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) September 24, 2019
UVXY Nov
Sold $UVXY 11/15 35/45 bear call spread @ 1.21
No Upside
#VIXIndicator. This Upside Warning looks to be a dud. After it fired on Thursday’s close, we only got a 0.3% intraday bump on Friday, then it’s been all lower. There’s never been a pullback this strong on an Upside Warning that ended up bouncing and coming through. This is the 43rd UpW since I started tracking in 2000, but only the fourth to not register any significant higher price after firing.
KMX closed
#Earnings. Sold to close $KMX Sept 27/Oct04 86 #DoubleCalendar for 1.01 – 1.05, and the stock price hovered around the strike price. Bought yesterday for .48. Meanwhile, hell breaks loose.
XBI
#ShortPuts – Starting a brand new position…
Sold XBI OCT 18 2019 78.0 Puts @ 1.55
#fallingknife ROKU ROKU now below…
#fallingknife ROKU
ROKU now below 100, had touched 176 on September 9.
NUGT
Rolled $NUGT 9/27 35/40 #BeCS // 10/4, same strikes @0.15 credit.
#earnings #closing KMX Sold double…
FND
STO October 18, 50 puts @ 1.55, this is a SMM trade that they like but I missed the proper entry so decided to sell puts.
NUGT HIIQ Rolled
#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 10/18 36 call and STO 10/25 38 call for .30 debit
$HIIQ BTC 10/18 25 call and STO 11/15 28 call for .40 credit
SPX trades
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Sept 25th 2980/2955 put spreads for 3.00.
Expiring today:
Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045, sold Friday for .50
Sept 23rd 2915/2940-3050/3075, sold Wednesday for 2.65
#earnings #rolling FDX Rolled Oct….
KMX earnings analysis and trade
#Earnings $KMX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
June 21, 2019 BO +3.18%
March 29, 2019 BO +9.61%
Dec. 21, 2018 BO +3.94%
Sept. 26, 2018 BO -1.60%
June 22, 2018 BO +12.86%
April 4, 2018 BO +4.61%
Dec. 21, 2017 BO -3.60%
Sept. 22, 2017 BO +7.77%
June 21, 2017 BO +0.80%
April 6, 2017 BO +2.36%
Dec. 20, 2016 BO +6.09%
Sept. 21, 2016 BO -2.04%
Avg (+ or -) 4.87%
Bias 3.67%, strongly positive bias on earnings.
NOTE: The 5-day results are still bullish, but less so, as extreme one-day up moves tended to fade over the following days.
With stock at 86.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 79.60 to 92.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 81.81 to 90.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.9%): 74.94 to 97.06
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 82.90
Open to requests for other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Sept. 22, 2016 BO -0.42%
Avg (+ or -) 4.88%
Bias -1.84%, negative bias on earnings.
NOTE: The 5-day results are more bullish, as extreme one-day down moves tended to fade over the following days.
5-day bias is +0.80%
With stock at 1152.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1081.01 to 1223.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1096.22 to 1208.78
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 1016.04 to 1288.96
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 1230.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
UUP closed
#LongCalls On July 29th I bought $UUP Sept 20th 26 calls for .72. UUP price was 26.58 on that day. I forgot to close Friday so I was assigned, and I just sold the stock for 26.88.
So I had the direction right, but this thing only moves a few pennies in weeks, so profit of .16 on the trade.
NUGT WORK STZ
Rolled $NUGT 9/27 30 Puts // 10/4 30.5 puts @.50 Credit against existing 10/18 20 puts
Rolled down 10/18 $WORK 10/18/2019 40 Calls // 10/18/2019 28 Calls @.57. #CoveredCalls.
STO $STZ 180/190/220/230 10/18/2019 #IC @2.25. Earnings 10/3. Short options at ~20 delta.
Direxion
Upcoming ETF Distributions
Direxion will pay income distributions on select funds according to the following schedule:
- Ex-Date: 9/24/2019
- Record Date: 9/25/2019
- Pay Date: 10/1/2019
Options Expiration
$ADBE 9/20 292.5/302.5 #BeCS – STO 9/11 @1.31 as part of a #IronCondor.
$TSLA 9/20 220/230 #BuPS – STO 9/12 @0.74
$SPX 9/20 2950/2965/3040/3055 #IC STO 9/19 @0.80.
Expirations
#optionsexpiration
#spxcampaign
$SPX 2895/2920/3050/3070 STO at 2.40. Thank you @jeff
$TSLA 220/230 BECS at max loss
$BYND 160/170 BECS STO at 1.30
$TQQQ 65 calls Covered by leaps
$EXAS 109 call Covered
$TRTN 30 put
Rolled $NUGT Puts
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 9/27 34 put and STO 10/18 31 put for added .53 credit.
Rolling last Sep NUGT position
Rolled $NUGT 9/20 31 calls out to 10/18 31 calls @ 1.85 credit
ADBE BUPS Closed
#bups
$ADBE BTC 9/20 270/280 BUPS at .40. STO at 2.88 on 8/26
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 2930/2940-3035/3045 condors for .50, 10-pt wings, double size.
IV: 9.31%, SPX 3000
Expiring today: Sept 20th 2940/2960-3045/3065, sold yesterday for .75
Sept 20th 2895/2920-3050/3075, sold Monday for 2.45
Options Bistro 