#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2835/2855-2990/3010 condors for 1.35, IV 21.30%, SPX 2934.
High IV, lots of news expected.
Recent Updates Page 235
#closing SPX October 8, sold…
#closing SPX
October 8, sold Nov. 15, 2600/2700/2700/2750 for 2.60, bought today for 1.05
TRADES:
HIIQ STO 10/18/19 26.0 CALLS @.90
SFIX BTO STOCK @21.18 Broke a double top, on the Point & Figure Chart @21.0 today. Taking a shot. Probably sell calls against the stock, covering them.
#shortputspread UNG #tastytradefollow Sold Nov….
#shortputspread UNG
#tastytradefollow Sold Nov. 15, 14/19 put spread for .95
crm
The chart is breaking lower with the 10,20,and 50 day all below the 150 and 200 day MA. Earnings are not until November 25, so I bought the February 21, 145 put at 8.80 and sold the November 15, 125 put at .45cents. I am trying to sell the November 8, 160 calls as well.
TRADES:
HIIQ STO 11/15/19 29.0 CALLS @1.20
HIIQ STO 10/18/19 25.0 CALLS @1.25 Expires tomorrow. Covered. I love this stock, yeh, I know, DON’T fall in love with a stock, but what’s not to love, the MM gives you the stock, option at the quote. Margin use is small, so you can trade like a millionaire. ;>)
Algos run our lives
BREAKING: Stocks jump after Trump tweets he will meet with China's Vice Premier at the White House tomorrow on trade amid reports of little trade talk progress https://t.co/ivEB35OTNo pic.twitter.com/XPRhnix73y
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 10, 2019
SPX Monday
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2800/2825-2985/3010 condors for 3.15, IV: 17.01%, SPX close: 2919.
Sold a couple minutes after the closing bell.
Nuts
#Market So we opened the day higher due to reports that “China is open to a partial US trade deal.”
Now this:
BREAKING: Stocks pull back by about 90 points after Reuters reports that Beijing has lowered expectations for trade talks this week. https://t.co/pWxu4hGRlD pic.twitter.com/Y7lXpOS9yM
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) October 9, 2019
SBUX iron condor
Sold $SBUX 11/15 iron condor: 70/80/90/100 @ 2.07 with the stock at 85.91. IV rank is high at 69, partly because of earnings in the cycle (expected 10/30 or 10/31 but not yet confirmed). I plan to be out of this trade before then, hopefully for a profit if contracting IV and theta cooperate.
SPX aggressive
#SPX1dte I am considering the Downside Warning and general market weakness. I look at the daily chart and see resistance at 2950 for most of August. I’ve been burned on some of these aggressive spreads recently so I’ll keep a tight leash on it. The biggest risk is, of course, news or a tweet.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 2950/2975 call spreads for 7.00.
DPZ
BTC DPZ 210/220/270/280 Oct 18 2019 #IC @0.25 (0.05 put and 0.20 call side 0.25 total) – was STO 10/7/2019 @ 1.55
Once again Jeff – many thanks for the data!
#earnings DAL Sold Nov. 15,…
#earnings DAL
Sold Nov. 15, 50/57.50 strangle for 1.64.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
#fallingknife #shortputs NKTR Sold Nov….
#fallingknife #shortputs NKTR HP
Sold Nov. 15, 35 put for 1.55 with stock at 36, earnings Nov. 13.
Sold Nov. 15, 15 put for .85 with stock in the low 16s
Thanks for the #fallingknife list Iceman
DAL earnings analysis
#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 11, 2019 BO +1.16%
April 10, 2019 BO +1.59%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
Avg (+ or -) 1.82%
Bias 1.27%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 54.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.16 to 56.84
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 53.02 to 54.98
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 51.43 to 56.57
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 53.05
Open to requests for other symbols.
DPZ closed
#Earnings Sold to close $DPZ Oct11/Oct18 242.5 #DoubleCalendar for 2.05. Bought Tuesday for 1.05. Only got filled on a 1-lot; should have forced the issue!
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Can’t resist…adding one.
Sold DRIP DEC 20 2019 130.0/140.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.60
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Adding to offset some of the bear call spreads…
Sold UVXY OCT 11 2019 27.5 Puts @ .60
WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Sitting under some resistance so continuing to sell aggressively. Earnings not until first week of Nov so plenty of time for more adjustments/sales before then. Let’s see China prove me wrong! LOL
Sold WYNN OCT 18 2019 105.0 Calls @ 3.00 and 3.05
UVXY WYNN
#BearCallSpreads #CoveredCalls – A couple late fills while I was out…
Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 40.0/50.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.30
Bought to Close WYNN OCT 11 2019 110.0 Calls @ .10 (sold for 2.05)
#brokenwingbutterfly SPX #tastytradefollow at the…
#brokenwingbutterfly SPX
#tastytradefollow at the bell sold Nov. 15, 2600/2700/2700/2750 for 2.60
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 9th 2830/2850-2955/2975 condors for 1.15, IV 16.66%, SPX 2906.
ULTA put spread
Sold $ULTA Nov 15 225/220 bull put spread @ 2.36. Stock bouncing intraday. Delta of short puts 27. IV rank high at 65.
#shortstrangles SMH #tastytradefollow Sold Nov….
#shortstrangles SMH
#tastytradefollow Sold Nov. 15, 97/128 strangle for 1.05, currently at 117.
#markettide Is showing a possible…
Is showing a possible reversal on the 5 minute for /ES.
IBB STO the other side of the strangle at 103 c for 0.65 for 11/8 exp. Strangle is now the 101.5/103 for 3.45 credit total after some rolls. I am trying this as an experiment based on the TT research. Open initially at 43-45 DTE then manage at 21 DTE no matter what. Rolled the put side last week. They showed that beats all other management tactics for selling options so seeing how it works in real time with real money. 10 contracts so there is some skin in the game. So far so good, showing an $875 profit even with the puts being ITM. If it works will set up ladders on various ETFs. Single tickers would use #jadelizard to avoid upside risk.
#fuzzy
XBI rolled the short 80 put from 10 DTE out to 24 DTE for 0.42 credit. Cb 13.66.
LNG 60/65 rolled out to 45 DTE for 0.52 credit. Cb 7.12.
SPX 4-dte stopped
#SPX1dte . Looks like the Downside Warning may come through. BTC $SPX Oct 11th 2855/2830 put spreads for 4.00. Condors sold yesterday for 3.00. Stop breached when SPX went below 2905. Perhaps it found support at 2900, but it looks like we could be going lower so getting out while it’s cheap.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding one…
Sold UVXY NOV 15 2019 35.0/45.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.35
XBI
#ShortPuts – Adding another one…
Sold XBI NOV 15 2019 73.0 Put @ 2.10
DPZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $DPZ reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2019 BO -8.66%
April 24, 2019 BO +4.89%
Feb. 21, 2019 BO -9.14%
Oct. 16, 2018 BO -4.87%
July 19, 2018 BO -2.44%
April 26, 2018 BO +7.31% Biggest UP
Feb. 20, 2018 BO +0.33%
Oct. 12, 2017 BO -3.73%
July 25, 2017 BO -10.08% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 BO +2.53%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO +2.36%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +4.89%
Avg (+ or -) 5.10%
Bias -1.38%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 225.42 to 259.58
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 230.13 to 254.87
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.1%): 218.06 to 266.94
Based on UP max only (+7.3%): 260.23
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 2830/2855-3005/3030 condors for 3.00, IV17.92%, SPX 2945.
WORK
Rolled $WORK Oct 18 2019 28 Calls // Nov 15 2019 30 @0.25. Basis at 37.82. Still chipping away.
TRADES:
HIIQ STO 10/18/19 24.0 PUTS @1.25 Want to own stock a little cheaper.
NTNX STO 10/11/19 27.0 CALLS .30
CHWY STO 10/11/19 27.0 CALLS @.35
#earnings #closing ROKU Finito May…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2885 puts for .05. Taking off downside risk, allowing remainder of condor to expire (sold Friday for 1.00)
Jeff, I am following with…
Jeff, I am following with VXX Jan 20 20 Puts. So far so good but what is the longer term plan on how to play this name? I have bought 4 so far and sold 1 for a double so I have 3 at a total cost of around 2.10. (0.70 ea).
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2865/2885-2980/3000 condors for 1.00, IV: 9.92%, SPX 2943.
Expiring today (hopefully): 2820/2840-2950/2970 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
SPX 1-DTE Stopped
SPX 1-DTE 2950/2970 Call side @0.85. Condor sold yesterday for 1.20. Stop was at 2942.5.
Closing GDXJ
Bought to close $GDXJ 10/18 35/42 strangle @ .31. Sold for .79 on 9/19.
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Adding again even though I couldn’t quite get the premium of the starter position. Pretty much a full position now before oil prices spike again on the next Saudi attack.
Sold DRIP DEC 20 2019 130.0/140.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.50
SHOP
#CoveredCalls – Rolling for nice credit and keeping some downside protection. Rolling into what should be a week or two before earnings.
Rolled SHOP OCT 04 2019 295.0 Call to OCT 18 2019 297.5 Call @ 1.50 Credit (16.00 total now)
WYNN
#CoveredCalls – Sitting under some resistance so continuing to sell aggressively. Earnings not until first week of Nov so plenty of time for more adjustments/sales before then.
Bought to Close WYNN OCT 04 2019 110.0 Calls @ .10 (sold for 2.80)
Sold WYNN OCT 11 2019 110.0 Calls @ 2.05
SPX Monday call spread closed
#SPX1dte . BTC $SPX Oct 7th 2960/2985 call spread for 1.95. Condors sold for 2.85 on Wednesday. It came within expected move today. The #VIXIndicator is getting whipsawed this time around. It will suck two get to false signals in a row, but it is shaping up that way right now. Next week will give us the answers.
#earnings #closing COST Closed Nov….
Closed Nov. 15 #jadelizard and Oct. 18 long put spread from yesterday, made $70.
STZ
COST closed
#Earnings . Sold to close $COST Oct04/Oct11 285 #DoubleCalendar for 4.00. Bought yesterday for 2.00.
I thought I was asking too much to start at 4.00, but it filled at the bell. Could have gotten more.
September Jobs Report
#Jobs — 50-year low in unemployment rate
+136,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 145K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, lowest since 1969
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, down by 0.3
Wages unchanged, 2.9% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged
August revised up from 130K to 168K
July revised up from 159K to 166K
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 2820/2840-2950/2970 condors for 1.20, IV: 17.18%, SPX 2904.
COST dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $COST Oct04/Oct11 285 #DoubleCalendar for 2.00. Order was put in hours ago, took awhile to fill.
Here’s the link to the…
Here’s the link to the 21 DTE management research I mentioned earlier.
There is a second part and some other videos related to it. Like I said around pages 7-12 on market measure reruns.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/ways-of-managing-trades-05-09-2019
TRADES:
OSTX BTC 10/4/19 12.0 & 12.5 CALLS @.05
BYND STO 10/11/19 135/130 BuPS @1.05
GOOS BTO STOCK AGAIN, @38.66
GOOS STO 10/4/19 38.5 PUTS @.45
STNE STO COV. 35.0 CALLS @.55
Back in playoff mode…
Raised the banner last night at the Blues opener. Time to focus on October baseball now!
#earnings #jadelizard COST Sold Nov….
#earnings #jadelizard COST
Sold Nov. 15, 265/290/295 jade lizard for 5.67
bought Oct. 18, 250/260 long put spread for .55 as a downside hedge
Thanks for the data Jeff
The new commissions at TOS…
The new commissions at TOS kicked in and are nice. Less money out 🙂
I have been trying to…
I have been trying to move out of the leveraged ETFs but am stuck in a few for a while. Tastytrade did some research that shows trading options on the leveraged has much lower returns than just trading the regular ETF. Even accounting for contango/drift/ backwardization. My personal results show that as well. I know a lot of people here trade them but it may be more effective to not option trade them. As a hedge, sure they work but for options not so much. With the volatility over the last month or so, I have had trouble staying ahead of the fluctuations. The premiums are huge but the options are not priced for the movement for selling them.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/trading-options-on-leveraged-etfs-11-26-2018
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/leveraged-etfs-not-consistent-performance-03-31-2016
#pietrades
With that said rolled
LABU 35 cc out 29 DTE for 1 and cost basis down to 33.80. My plan is to let call out if ITM and use it on something else.
TQQQ 60 CC rolled out to next week fr 0.98. Cb 57.52. Same as above.
LABU 35.5 cc rolled out 22 DTE and down to 35 for 0.90. Cb 33.49. Same
EXPE STO the 29 DTE 123 put for 2.05. Timing could not have been worse, market reversed 2 minute after that.
#fuzzy
XBI #fuzzy rolled 80/80 out to 22 DTE for 0.65 credit. Cb now 0.85. Still have until 2021 to keep making $ on this one.
XBI #fuzzy 80/83 rolled down to 80/80 and 29 DTE for 0.88 credit. Cb 3.99.
LNG 65/62.5/61/60 rolled this weeks 61 and 62.5 to 61 and 62 for 22 and 29 DTE for 0.56 and 0.88 credits. Cb now 5.34
Also don’t know if any of you saw the Tastytrade episodes, market measures in the summer, search back to around page 7-12 on strangles showing that managing strangles/trades at 21 DTE beat all other management strategies, period. Even better than 50% profits. There are about 3-4 sessions on that. I have an IBB experiment going on starting 43-45 DTE and managing at 21-22 DTE. Hard to tell how it is working with the volatility but I rolled IBB yesterday (just the put side). Will re-establish the strangle depending on where we end up this week or next. I also have an ITM #jadelizard experiment going on at opening at 21 DTE. Will let you know results once I have a few cycles.
Not trying to brag but my core account just hit an all time high so I must be doing something right. That wipes out the SVXY losses on 1 account. 2 others still have a way to go but this is my largest trading account so nice to know I covered those losses in 21 months. I originally thought it would take much longer. I suspect the other 2 accounts will take another 12 months on 1 and 24 on the other. Chipping away and will hope to never make that mistake again!!!!
Trade smart, stay nimble 🙂
SPY
#ShortPuts – Adding to monthly ladder…
Sold SPY DEC 20 2019 260.0 Put @ 3.20
TSLA
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Filled on one lousy contract seconds before the implosion…
Sold UVXY OCT 11 2019 26.5 Put @ .59
Non-Manufacturing, too?
September #ISM non-manufacturing index fell 3.8 points to 52.6 (lowest since August 2016 & well below even most pessimistic forecast in Bloomberg survey); growth in orders/business activity plunged & employment registered weakest print in more than 5y
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 3, 2019
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 30, 2019 AC -0.81%
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
Avg (+ or -) 3.56%
Bias -0.89%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 285.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 272.00 to 298.00
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 274.86 to 295.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-8.6%): 260.55 to 309.45
Based on DOWN max only (+5.1%): 299.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator So after the failure of the Upside, we entered a Downside at today’s close. This signal usually means the market goes lower over the coming days.
NUGT closings
Just catching up on my trades.
I closed both of these positions for around overall breakeven (they were rollouts from losing Sep short calls).
-Bought to close $NUGT 12/20 53 calls @ 1.18. Overall profit .11.
-Bought to close $NUGT 10/18 32 calls @ 1.63. Overall profit .22.
My only remaining NUGT position is short 10/18 27 calls (another one from a Sep rollout).
SPX Monday
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 2780/2805-2960/2985 condors for 2.80, IV 17.29%, SPX 2889. Using expected move to down side as stop; half expected move to upside.
#oilu and #oild Does anyone…
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Thanks @Ramie !
Sold DRIP DEC 20 2019 130.0/140.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.55
#closing UVXY Sept. 10 sold…
#closing UVXY
Sept. 10 sold Oct. 18, 17 lp/27/sp/27lc/34sc for 1.10, #tastytradefollow, sold today for 1.28, making 2.38. This was a long put spread/long call spread spread.
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Fat fingered this one earlier. Could’ve gotten about 30 cents more.
Sold SOXL NOV 15 2019 100.0 Put @ 2.80
IBB strangle 102/107 for 10/25.
Closed the call side for 0.10. Rolled the 102 put down to 101.5 for 11/8 for 0.09 credit. If keep dropping with convert to #fuzzy now that the 2022 LEAPs are out.
EOG #fuzzy 85/75/75 rolled the 75 puts for this week out to next week for 0.41 credit. Cost basis 23.11 now.
My /ES 2690/2700 hedges only have about 2k profit, trying to sit on my hands for now but if looks like flat rest of day will roll down to take out some cash/profits.
XBI 80/80 #fuzzy rolled next week short puts out to 10/25 for 0.43 credit. Cb now 13.54. May roll the longs out to 2022 soon because they only cost $3-4 more for another year of weekly selling.
UVXY
#ShortPuts – Selling against the call spreads. Booking these and looking for a new sale on a relief rally of some sort.
Bought to Close UVXY OCT 4 2019 25.0 Puts @ .04 (sold for .52)
SPX support?
I’m not a chart guy. Trade mostly on expected moves but still messing around. Does this look reasonable to you chartists? 61.8 retrace right at the 200ma for some support. Not seeing much until there. Fibwizard out there?
Bottom fishing?
Not saying I am going long here but in last 10 minutes /ES had 60k+ longs vs. on 3000 shorts on 5 minute chart.
My hedges have worked nicely so I may roll down to take out some cash.
With the recent volatility over the last few weeks I converted almost everything to spreads to weather the whipsaws better. Seems to be working. Have an IBB strangle I may need to invert tomorrow. Some weird divergences today. XBI up when the market is down. Biotech is usually a risk on trade.
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Adding again. 50 percent size now.
Sold UVXY DEC 20 2019 40.0/50.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.47
ADBE
BTC $ADBE Oct 18 2019 300/310 #BeCS @0.07. Was STO 9/23 @0.50.
A TRADE;
SFIX STO 10/4/19 NTM 17.5 PUTS @.56
TRADES: An old fav that I re-discovered.
SFIX BTO STOCK @18.0
SFIX STO 10/4/19 18.5 CALLS @.50
SFIX STO 10/4/19 18.0 CALLS @.70 One of my favs because, it’s a weekly, easy on margin, moves slowly. decent premiums. ;>)
AMD
Rolled $AMD Oct 18 2019 33 #CoveredCalls // Nov 15 2019 @.74.
Options Bistro 