AMD BTC 4/5/19 30.5 CALLS @.03
Recent Updates Page 274
STZ Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Not waiting around another 2 weeks for 15 cents…
Bought to Close STZ APR 18 2019 170.0 Put @ .15 (sold for 2.20)
RTN
STO Apr 26 177.5/175 BuPS .91 2x on down grade
Fading LYFT
Sold $LYFT 5/17 80/90 BeCS @ 1.45
TSLA
STO Apr 5 275/277.5 BeCS $.38
A TRADE: Not great it…
A TRADE: Not great it looks like at this time. ;>)
SYNA BTO STOCK @39.32
STZ
Very interested in how we manage this Dbl Calendar, looking good.
Do we close early on a nice pop or roll shorts out a week and 5 points away?
GOOS BURL Covered Calls / OLED BUPS Closed / NTNX Sell Puts
#coveredcalls
$GOOS STO 4/5 49 call at .65
$BURL STO 4/5 155 call at 1.00
#shortputs
$OLED BTC 4/15 135/145 BUPS at .50 STO on 3/20 for 1.35
$NTNX STO 4/5 37.50 put at .65. Looking to acquire stock.
SPX condor roll
#SPX1dte #VIXIndicator No upside warning today so I’m selling both sides:
Sold $SPX April 12th 2800/2825-2910/2935 condors for 6.30 (IV 11.82%, SPX 2875)
STZ
#ShortPuts – Just for something to do. Going out to April monthly….
Sold 1 STZ APR 18 2019 170.0 Put @ 2.20
Double Calendar Webinar recording
#Webinars #Earnings #DoubleCalendar Please include any questions in the comments below!
STZ double calendar
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Bought to Open $STZ Apr05/Apr12 180 dbl cal for .78 & .80.
TRADE:
NTNX DAY TRADE MADE .10 PER CONTRACT ;>)
Taking profits on CAT
Bought to close $CAT 4/18 130/120 bull put spread for .43. Sold for 1.62 on 2/26.
Closing DIS
Bought to close $DIS 4/18 106/101 bull put spread for .30. Sold for 1.07 on 3/20.
A TRADE:
NTNX BTO STOCK @37.50 A day or swing trade.
Webinar on Double Calendars
Link for today’s webinar is below!
Topic: Double Calendars on Earnings
Time: Apr 3, 2019 11:00 AM Pacific Time (US and Canada)
Join Zoom Meeting
https://zoom.us/j/558920979
A TRADE:
AMD STO 4/5/19 31.5 NTM CALLS @.46
MarketTide
e
Still trying to buy with a discount so far no luck yet
TRADES:
SYNA STO 4/5/19 40.0 PUTS @.60 To buy stock a little cheaper.
NTNX STO 4/5/19 37.5 PUTS @.65 To buy stock etc.
#shortputspread VXXB Sold May 17,…
#shortputspread VXXB
Sold May 17, 21/26 for .98, bought the 21 just cuz
Webinar TODAY
#Webinar I’ll be holding a webinar later today on #DoubleCalendar earnings trades. It will be either live or recorded, depending on how smoothly I can get the software operating. Either way, it WILL be recorded for future viewing, so don’t worry if you miss it. Shooting for 2pm ET, 11am PT.
STZ earnings analysis
#Earnings $STZ reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 9, 2019 BO -12.41% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 BO +5.38%
June 29, 2018 BO -1.78%
March 29, 2018 BO +5.31%
Jan. 5, 2018 BO -0.21%
Oct. 5, 2017 BO +5.41%
June 29, 2017 BO +9.75%
April 6, 2017 BO +9.60%
Jan. 5, 2017 BO +0.47%
Oct. 5, 2016 BO +0.07%
June 30, 2016 BO +6.37%
April 6, 2016 BO +13.07% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.82%
Bias 3.42%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 167.70 to 187.30
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 167.17 to 187.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.1%): 154.30 to 200.70
Based on DOWN max only (-12.4%): 155.47
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed Z$SPX Apr 3rd 2885/2895 all spreads for 1.60. Condors sold yesterday for 1.15, so .45 loss. Too tight with the low IV.
Closing a VXXB position
Sold to close $VXXB 4/5 33/28 bear put spread @ 4.09. Bought for 2.50 on 3/22.
TNDM Calls / T Rolls (Are they chocolate?)
#shortcalls
$TNDM 4/12 62 calls at 2.00 Covered and I would not mind getting out at this price plus premium
$T BTC 4/18 31 and STO 4/26 33 call at .45 cost. Also, $T BTC 4/18 31 calls at .75 (Covered) Stock at 31.665
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 3rd 2820/2840-2885/2895 condors for 1.15. (IV 8.55% SPX 2866)
Also BTC Apr 5th 2865/2890 call spreads for 9.70. I’m eating a day to roll this. If we get $VIX closes below 13.55 today and tomorrow, it should mean a push in the short-term toward 2900. I’ll sell aggressively based on tomorrow’s action.
RH
STO August 75 puts @3.10
A TRADE:
RH STO 4/5/19 99/95 BuPS @.55 An add to a 100/97 BuPS
SIG earnings analysis
#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
I have never traded this, but it is a big mover
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84% Biggest UP
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -12.62%
May 26, 2016 BO -10.49%
March 24, 2016 BO +2.88%
Avg (+ or -) 14.35%
Bias -2.24%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 27.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.31 to 31.69
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 23.56 to 31.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 19.14 to 35.86
Based on UP max only (+23.8%): 34.06
Open to requests for other symbols.
#coveredcallcampaign SYMC Rolled April 18,…
#coveredcallcampaign SYMC
Rolled April 18, 23 call to May for .72, Tradewise trade
WBA
STO October 45 puts @ 1.14
CMG Short Call / Rolled LABU SYNA
#shortcallspreads
$CMG STO 4/18 730/720 BECS at 2.75 Bridget at OMM
#shortcalls
Rolled
$LABU BTC 4/5 58.5 calls and STO 4/12 61.50 calls for debit of .60 Stock At 59.49
$SYNA BTC 4/5 39 calls and STO 4/12 40.50 calls for debit of .54 Stock At 39.87
SPX roll
A TRADE:
SYNA STC 7/8 Of one position @40.43 Still have a full position. Will look to buy back stock @1% over what I sold it for,……..or before, seems to be consolidating in the 40.50’s. We’ll see. ;>)
#markettide Who do I contact…
#markettide
Who do I contact at AlphaShark to get our pricing for MarketTide?
SPX 1 die
#SPXdte Pressured on the upside this week… BTC $SPX April 1st 2855/2875 call spreads for 4.40. Condors sold Thursday for 1.00. Should have closed this Friday.
Also rolling the April 5th call spread I have. No trade yet.
I’m going to start watching Market Tide indicator more to help guide these trades. I’m putting up /ES 1-hour and 10-min charts, since these are mostly 1-day trades with a few that are 1-5 weeks out.
Anyone prefer $SPY to /ES for the Tide?
Expiration
LABU Stock called away at 54. Out at breakeven but considering I got the stock at 60 and rode it down to 23 I’ll take it!
UVXY 42.0 Calls (sold for 1.08)
#markettide Are you guys still…
#markettide
Are you guys still recommending #markettide? What is our cost? Has any on you used it for futures trades? How about using it for #Fuzzy’s?
Expirations
#optionsexpiration
$SFIX 29.5 call
$TSLA 300/290 BECS
Have a great weekend
SPX 1-dte and final trades
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2790/2770 put spreads for .45. This is a roll-up from the puts closed this morning. I’m leaving the 2855/2875 call spread in place.
Expiring: March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors, sold this morning for 1.10.
#Earnings $CCL #IronButterfly from Monday a flop… exercising for loss of 1.25 on the sale for 2.25.
A TRADE: FALLING KNIFE
RH STO A BuPS 4/5/19 100/97 @.70
SYNA Puts
Channeling my inner @honkhonk81
$SYNA STO 4/12 39 puts at $1.00
Closed SPX Early
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 3/29 2800/2820 BUPS at .50 STO 3/19 at 4.80 Thank you @jeffcp66. The ride was bumpy.
#fallingknife STO RH Jan17’20 70…
#fallingknife
STO RH Jan17’20 70 PUT $6.40
Expiration but mostly rolls, closing and managing.
#pietrades
EOG 90.5 cc for 4/12 cost basis 90.74. Depending on where it is trading will let assign at slight loss or roll.
EOG 89 cc 4/5 cost basis 92.63. Will roll this one.
ERX 23 cc for 4/5 cost basis 22.31. Will let assign or roll
TQQQ 54.5 cc for 3 weeks cost basis 56.39. Will roll
TQQQ 55 cc for today at 53.79 cost basis. Will assign today.
TQQQ 53.5 cc for 3 weeks cb 56.75. Will roll
FAS 57 cc for 4/5 cost basis 54.20. Will let assign.
#lizardpies
XBI 4/5 86/86/86.5 closed today for 0.52 profit per contract. Could only make .69 above 86 so decent profit for 2 day trade. I had skewed this one to the downside but it moved up today.
EXPE 4/26 115/131/132 for 2.31 credit. Looking good now, hope to close for 50% or better profit in 2 weeks. Right now at 25%.
SMH 4/26 100.5/110/111 for 1.38 credit. Same as above.
SQ 4/5 75.5/75.5/74.03 for 1.75 credit. Same but will most likely roll it in pieces.
JPM STO today the 4/5 101/101/102 for 1.81 credit. Looks like it found a bottom.
TNA 4/5 60/61/61.5 rolled this morning from last week. Credit now 3.06.
#fuzzy
GILD 65/65 for 2 weeks at 8.41 cost basis.
GILD 65/65 for 3 weeks 6.39 cb
XBI 80/80/91.5 cb 11.74. 2 more weeks on the short calls.
Percentage return wise, the #jadelizard trades seem to work the best and also easier to roll because of the initial higher credit. Live study ongoing and will keep you posted. I am also skewing them depending on which way I think it is moving and that seems to help the winning percentage. Using the #markettide to time entries.
Have a good weekend!
2 more weeks in the jaw wires then back to work for me 🙂 although I am enjoying the extra trading.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/1/19
#Jobs Report is Friday morning
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=1&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
SYNA HOD @39.32
SYNA HOD @39.32
Your Lyft is on the way!
SPX 1-dte update
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX April 1st 2740/2720 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of condor yesterday… condor for 1.00, put side was .41 of that.
Rolled SYNA LABU Calls TNDM Puts
#shortcalls
$SYNA BTC 3/29 37.50 calls and STO 4/5 39 calls for debit of .31 cents. Stock at 38.78 now and is moving faster than I expected.
$LABU BTC 3/29 57 calls and STO 4/5 58.5 calls for added credit of .66. Stock at 58.10
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 3/29 68.50 put and STO 4/12 68.5 calls for added credit of 1.30
SQ cals
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold $SQ Apr 12th 78.5 calls for 1.05
SPX 6-hte
#SPX1dte Since I messed up and sold Monday’s expiration yesterday, I’m selling TODAY’s expiration now.
Sold $SPX March 29th 2770/2790-2845/2860 condors for 1.10. Expires tonight. (IV 12.71% SPX 2824)
IV is high enough that it isn’t too risky to get decent premium. From a delta standpoint I’m being more aggressive on the call side, but we haven’t seen any blistering rallies on Friday afternoons lately.
ROKU put spread
With the negative effect from the Apple event behind it, I’m looking at today’s price action/bounce off support as an opportunity to trade this to the upside. Earnings likely early/mid May.
Sold $ROKU May 17 55/50 BuPS for 1.25. Delta of short puts 23.
SYNA Short Calls
#shortputs
$SYNA STO 3/29 37.5 calls at .35 Covered Thank you @honkhonk81 for inspiration
SPX 1-dte, er, 2-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX April 1st 2720/2740-2855/2875 condors for 1.00 (IV: 11.32%, SPX 2811). Meant to sell March 29th but I sold Monday’s.
#shortcallspreads #postearnings LULU Sold May…
#shortcallspreads #postearnings LULU
Sold May 17, 185/195 for 1.50.
#lizardpies SQ rolled the put…
#lizardpies
SQ rolled the put down yesterday, today closed the 76/76.5 ccs for 0.05. The sold the 4/5 75.5/76 ccs fro 0.16 credit. After the roll of the puts earlier in the week, break even now 74.03 on down side and no risk to upside. In fact anything over 75.5 makes 4.10 a contract from the accumulated credits now.
Jeff what is your opinion…
Jeff what is your opinion on RH? I have a 135/137 call spread. It is under water at this time, no sure whether to gamble on a pop or take a small loss. cost 1.01
A TRADE:
SYNA BTO STOCK 36.62 Replacing some of the stock I BTO this morning.
TRADES:
SYNA STC my double stock position @36.98
SYNA STO 3/29/18 36.0 CALLS @.80 Covered , was ITM
SYNA STO 3/29/19 36.5 CALLS @.50
SPX ITM puts closed
#SPX1dte I got punched around pretty bad in March with a couple of 1-dte breaches and failed attempts at rolling. This reverse roll was the worst; had I left the call spread it would have ben fine. Thank God for strong months like February to eclipse small losing months like March.
BTC $SPX March 29th 2820/2800 put spreads for 8.50. Sold for 4.80 on March 19th as a #ReverseRoll.
Closing $M
Bought to close $M 4/18 23 puts @ .29. Sold for .72 on 2/26.
TSLA LULU BECS
#shortcallspreads
$TSLA STO 3/29 300/290 BECS at .45
$LULU STO 4/18 175/170 BECS at 2.18
RH earnings analysis
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Always a big mover. Expected move is less than average move, meaning options are underpriced.
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75%
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69%
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Sept. 8, 2016 AC +3.08%
June 8, 2016 AC -21.23%
March 29, 2016 AC +3.97%
Avg (+ or -) 17.46%
Bias 4.45%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 130.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.45 to 148.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 107.30 to 152.70
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 71.83 to 188.18
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 96.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings FIVE LULU Bought FIVE…
#earnings FIVE LULU
Bought FIVE strangle for .35, sold yesterday for 1.17.
I think it’s safe to say I didn’t need the LULU hedge.
Good morning
I did not win the lottery.
#hedge LULU In addition to…
#hedge LULU
In addition to the May strangle I sold today, I have had an April 18, 130/135 short ratio put spread (2 short 130s, 1 long 135) trade put on March 1. LULU has been up and down, trade hasn’t been profitable. I bought a March 29, 120/130 put spread for 1.33. If LULU drops big I have some insurance, will be OK on a big rise, the short 130s will cover the hedge.
#ironcondor TSLA Sold May 17,…
#ironcondor TSLA
Sold May 17, 215/220/320/325 for 1.83.
The pull back helped a…
The pull back helped a few positions so rolling.
#lizardpies
SQ this week 76/76/76.5 rolled the puts to next week 4/5 to the 75.5 put for 0.08 credit. I will let the call side expire worthless then re-establish the #jadelizard on Monday. Cb now 74.14 on put side, no risk to upside.
STO the 4/5 XBI 86/86/86.5 jade lizard for 1.19 credit. Cost basis 84.81 on downside and no risk to upside. Skewed it slightly to downside in case market keeps going down. Anywhere above 86.5 make 0.69 per contract. Below will roll the puts.
#pietrades
EOG batch 1 rolled the 90.5 cc out 2 weeks to 4/11 for 1.05 credit. Cost basis down to 90.74. 1 more roll should be profitable.
Not having a lot of success with directional trades, but by having time to watch the market (not all day) I have been able to time my rolls better and make more income. Not sure I will ever be a full on directional trader. Even watching the 1 minute /ES chart, just missed the pivot.
CMG
#LongPuts – Lottery tickets here…
Bought CMG JAN 15 2021 210.0 Puts @ 1.70 and 1.85
#callbutterfly CMG tastyTrade idea sold…
#callbutterfly CMG
tastyTrade idea sold April 18, 715/725/725/745 for 1.00 (but 1, 715, sell 2, 725s, buy 1 745), CMG hovering around 700.
SPX 1-dte puts closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX March 27th 2755 short puts for .10. Allowing remainder to expire. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.
MS FAS
#LongCalls – Dr. J reporting unusual options activity with MS July 44 strike calls being bought. FAS will be back on the radar for some put sales. Would like to see it a little lower first…
#earnings FIVE Sold April 18,…
#earnings FIVE
Sold April 18, 100/145 strangle for 1.17. Thanks again Jeff.
