$TRIP #ShortCalls – Sold TRIP May 19 2017 52.5 Calls @ 0.35 with the stock at 45.15.
These are paired off against old #FallingKnife Puts from 40 down to 35
Recent Updates Page 430
$DUST #ShortCalls – sold a…
$DUST #ShortCalls – sold a few more today
Sold DUST May 19 2017 45.0 Calls @ 0.75
Sold DUST Jun 02 2017 49.0 Calls @ 0.90
falling knife over trade
STO 3 next week GILD 66.5 puts at 0.65. Looks like it found a bottom at 66 and my dynamic trend wave indicator (one of the few tools I bought) is on a 4 hour buy signal which is usually good for a 1 week trade.
AMZN iron butterfly
#Earnings My order is in to sell $AMZN Apr 28th 890/920/950 IB for 25.00. Will consider lowering my ask if no fill by 3:30 ET.
CMG earnings (and others)
#Earnings BTC $CMG 520 calls for .05. Sold strangles for 2.50, all closed now for .10 total.
$FFIV hovering around my short 126 puts. Will hold until tomorrow
$DPZ up as needed; order in to close for .05, with May 19th expiry
$PEP still needs a lift toward 115 to be profitable. Yesterday closed the 115 short calls for .05.
$ANTM needs to drop below 173.50… not too likely
#earningstrade #rollof the dice SBUX…
#earningstrade #rollof the dice SBUX
Bought a long straddle (hey-Jeff and I and probably others went long on SPX yesterday), May 19 55/66 for .18, will need more than a 10% move over 3 weeks to be profitable.
EXPE earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $EXPE Apr 28th 126/146 strangles for 1.05. Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 12.9%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.5%, Average move: 6.6%. These strikes are -7.7% and +7.0% OTM. I’m playing inside its max moves, but its more recent reports have been milder.
SVXY, AAL
STO June 16, 105 puts @ 2.23 Taking one for the team.
AAL, STO August 35 puts @.63
ZBH
STO December 95 puts @1.60
SRPT earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $SRPT Apr 28th 31.5/38.5 strangles for 1.75. Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 7.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.3%, Average move: 5.6%. These strikes are -10.5% and +9.4% OTM.
Biotech stocks can be wily, so trade carefully. This one, however, does not typically have huge earnings moves.
AMZN earnings
#Earnings Tough call here… it has run so hard and strong hard to believe it will =go too much higher on the report, even though I think it will break 1,000 later this year. At same time, will it really take a dip on earnings, like last quarter?
I’m considering another wide butterfly, like @fuzzballl‘s idea last quarter. It took stock assignment and an extra week but worked in the end.
Thoughts out there?
Bunch of trades
Rolled AAL 41.5 puts this week to May 12 for .81 credit
BTC IWM 135 puts this week for 0.02 sold for .77
STO EXPE May 129 May puts for 1.25
Rolled EXPE this week 125 puts to May 5 129 puts for 0.78 credit (market makers being greedy with earnings this week)
These are all retirement accounts so small size but still $1225 profit for the week and I will take it.
Vix is too low to sell indexes so sticking with individual names with better volatility and premiums. Apparently the markets only go up anymore.
SVXY
BTC April 28, 85 puts @.01, I forgot I had the order in good til canceled.
DUST new weeklies
Sold $DUST Jun 9 47 calls @ 1.20. Highest strike.
Earnings before Open
AU Optonics (AUO) – consensus EPS $0.21
AbbVie (ABBV) – consensus EPS $1.26
Alexion Pharma (ALXN) – consensus EPS $1.23
Ally Financial (ALLY) – consensus EPS $0.49
American Airlines (AAL) – consensus EPS $0.55
American Electric Power (AEP) – consensus EPS $0.98
American Tower (AMT) – consensus EPS $0.64
AstraZeneca (AZN) – consensus EPS N/A
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) – consensus EPS $0.74
Brunswick (BC) – consensus EPS $0.82
CBRE Group (CBG) – consensus EPS $0.34
Celgene (CELG) – consensus EPS $1.64
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) – consensus EPS $0.15
Comcast (CMCSA) – consensus EPS $0.44
Dow Chemical (DOW) – consensus EPS $0.98
Ford Motor (F) – consensus EPS $0.36
Johnson Controls (JCI) – consensus EPS $0.49
L-3 Communications (LLL) – consensus EPS $1.81
MGM Resorts (MGM) – consensus EPS $0.29
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) – consensus EPS -$0.03
Nokia (NOK) – consensus EPS $0.03
Raytheon (RTN) – consensus EPS $1.61
Sirius XM (SIRI) – consensus EPS $0.04
Southwest Airlines (LUV) – consensus EPS $0.63
UPS (UPS) – consensus EPS $1.29
USG Corp. (USG) – consensus EPS $0.45
Under Armour (UA) – consensus EPS -$0.04
Xcel Energy (XEL) – consensus EPS N/A
Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH) – consensus EPS $2.11
Earnings After Markets Close
Aflac (AFL) – consensus EPS $1.62
Alphabet (GOOG) – consensus EPS $7.40
Amazon.com (AMZN) – consensus EPS $1.13
Baidu.com (BIDU) – consensus EPS $0.86
Expedia (EXPE) – consensus EPS $0.07
FirstEnergy (FE) – consensus EPS $0.75
GoPro (GPRO) – consensus EPS -$0.44
Intel (INTC) – consensus EPS $0.65
Microsoft (MSFT) – consensus EPS $0.70
Mohawk Industries (MHK) – consensus EPS $2.71
Principal Financial Group (PFG) – consensus EPS $1.16
Starbucks Coffee (SBUX) – consensus EPS $0.45
Western Digital (WDC) – consensus EPS $2.13
Upside Warning Fired today
#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning fired today with the third consecutive day below the 78.6% Fib retracement. This means higher index prices are very likely in the coming days or weeks. Below is the VIX chart for the mini-correction we just completed, and today’s warning. Below that is data from last summer on the Upside Warning. I will be updating this soon.
ARROWS: Yellow=1st downside signal; Green=reset 50% warning level; Red=Downside Warning; Pink=Cancel Downside Warning; Cyan=Upside Warning
Upside Warning Data as of last summer:
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
Opting Out of Op Ex this week…
…going to LAS for a little fun and sun, still raining in PDX, while there taking time to check off another Bucket List item. Always wanted to drive a NASCAR, so Friday about market close I’ll be rocketing around Las Vegas Speedway @ 160 mph with Drive Petty team, if all goes well, I’ll post GoPro dash cam on You Tube.
Trade safely and have a great weekend!
$SPX “reversal doji?”
The SPX closed negative on a long legged doji at the top of the move; this normally indicates indecision and may even be a sign of reversal….
PG
STO January 2018, 80 puts @2.03
$MYL #CoveredCalls – Sold MYL…
$MYL #CoveredCalls – Sold MYL OCT 20 2017 45.0 Calls @ 0.65
CHRW
STO January 62.5 puts @1.50
$DUST #ShortCalls #OptionLadder – sold…
$DUST #ShortCalls #OptionLadder – sold a bunch of calls on the run above 34
Sold DUST May 19 2017 45.0 Calls @ 0.70
Sold DUST Jun 2 2017 49.0 Calls @ 0.85 – Highest strike
Sold DUST Jun 16 2017 51.0 Calls @ 1.25
DUST rolls
#ContangoETFs #StrangleRoll In the DUST game again after a long absence!
Bought to close $DUST May 19th 35 calls for 2.80. Sold for 1.40 on Apr 19th.
Rolled into a strangle: Sold June 16th 24/47 strangles for 2.85.
Now that DUST in plummeting, I clearly rolled this too early.
Also, sold to open DUST Jan 19th 2018 85 call for 4.00.
Tax Cut Being Explained…watch your…
Tax Cut Being Explained…watch your indices!?
Edit: Hmm…already priced in?
DUST calls
Sold $DUST May 19 45 calls @ .65. Idea from @optioniceman from yesterday.
WYNN again
#ShortStrangles – WYNN did it to me again….same as last quarter. Changed earnings dates the weekend before the announcement. Had rolled my strangle into what was supposed to be the week before earnings. Plan was to then have a nice adjusting roll into earnings week. Turned out to be the week of earnings so IV exploded along with a huge move so adjusting again. Kind of a pain but has been a nice cash generator last few months.
Bought to Close WYNN APR 28 2017 120.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 2.17)
Rolled WYNN 105 calls to May monthly 130/110 inverted @ 1.12 credit.
CMG
#ShortStrangles – Having to take care of some of these earlier than I would like but I’ll be out the rest of the week except for maybe a few last minute rolls from the phone (in between golf shots 🙂 )
Bought to Close CMG APR 28 2017 480.0 Put @ 6.10 (sold for 15.00 after multiple roll-ups)
Replacing that with:
Sold CMG MAY 19 2017 470.0 Put @ 7.01
Selling against a Jun 450 short call…
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign Stop hit on a call spread so I reversed it, shorter term.
Bought to close $SPX May 12th 2420/2445 call spread for 4.00. Sold for 1.65 last Friday.
Sold to Open $SPX May 10th 2375/2350 put spreads for 4.15.
I had many trades yesterday I didn’t have time to post due to travels. I hope to have the chart revised today or tomorrow but let me know if there are questions on any positions.
Earnings for today
#Earnings Sold a strangle on FFIV and puts on DPZ (both posted below). I’m trying for three others that probably won’t fill… no plans to adjust so if they don’t fill, no trade:
$PYPL Apr 28th 44.5/43.5 put spread for .50
$ALXN Apr 28th 112/133 strangle for 1.00
$EQIX May 19th 380 puts for 2.75
Anyone trying for other symbols?
DPZ earnings
#Earnings #ShortPuts Sold to Open $DPZ May 19th 165 puts for 1.10. A strong performer on earnings and overall. Willing to go with 23 days until expiration. May try to sell 210 calls if it rallies into the close.
On last 12 reports, its move after 21 days: Biggest UP move: 15.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.5%, Average move: 6.7%. This trade is -8.7% OTM.
UVXY
STO January 2018 60 calls @1.55 on 2 contracts. My first trade in this expiration.
Earnings updates
#Earnings from yesterday
Bought to close $CMG Apr 28th 430 calls for .05. Order in to close 520 calls for same. Strangle sold yesterday for 2.50.
$PEP, needs to rise closer to 115 by weeks end. Has a good shot. Sold 112/115/118 IB for 1.85.
$ANTM, needs to fall toward 170 by week’s end. Less likely to work than PEP; should have leaned bullish on this one, and as you can see from yesterday’s post, I realized it right after my trade executed! Sold 165/170/175 IB for 3.50.
FFIV earnings
#Earnings #ShortStrangles
Sold to Open $FFIV 126/150 strangles for 1.00. Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 9.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -10.0%, Average move: 5.1%. These strikes are each 8.7% OTM.
$UVXY
Have a number of orders in to close positions.
BTC May 5 $39 calls @ $.02, sold for $.50
SPX risk/reversal
#SPXcampaign An Upside Warning is going to fire today, barring any intraday market shock, so I’m going long call spreads on SPX. My favorite way to do this is to sell an equal-priced put spread so the cost of the purchased call spread is zero… unless, of course, I’m completely wrong and the market tanks. But that’s quite unlikely in the near term. If the long call spread fails, the put spread will likely expire worthless and net cost is zero in the end.
Bought to Open $SPX May 5th 2415/2435 call spreads for 2.20.
Sold to Open $SPX May 5th 2365/2340 put spreads for 2.40.
If we don’t get a strong up move by the end of this week, I will be doing this again with further dated expiration.
IRBT
BTC June 46 puts @ .05 cents. Sold @1.35 so not much more to be made on this one. Closed 7 weeks early so happy to free up capital.
Efficiency of capital
I did a mini study last year that was an extension of some of the tastytrade strangle work. I was trying to figure out what was the most efficient use of capital on both a percentage basis and ROC. I only did it with a few tickers and specifically was looking at use of margin and buying power reduction selling various options. I looked at uso, spy, dia, qqq, gld, and iwm against the futures or the index. It was fairly extensive so to keep it simple will just show /es/spy/spx. Here is the quick summary and it was true for the others with the exception of qqq, the futures options were not liquid enough in that.
Selling delta 8 options 45 DTE. Keep in mind spy was under 200 and the vix was around 14-15 so the #s are different today.
I looked at how much money it would require to actually cover the position or at least avoid a margin call.
SPY needs about $6000 per contract to cover a large move without a margin call
SPX needs about $40,000 per contract to cover
/ES needs about $6000 per contract to cover
What this means. From a percentage standpoint SPY actually wins but from a ROC /ES is the more efficient product because you are selling higher premiums. From a strangle standpoint SPX is the worst and tastytrade also did a study that found spy is more efficient than spx because of the tighter bid/ask spreads. However, there is a tax advantage and volume advantage to spx or /es.
What I take from this is if you have a smaller account stick with spy, medium account move up to /es and if you have a private jet trade spx or /es.
For those that do not know the ratio 10 SPY = 1 SPX = 2 /ES contracts.
Interestingly the most efficient market from a percentage basis was /CL oil futures requiring only about $4000 per contract. Just watch the leverage on any of them, that is the only thing that has ever cost me on trades gone bad. Now I always keep enough cash to cover the position in a black swan event.
Hope that helps, cheers, Chris
Earnings before Open
Anthem (ANTM) – consensus EPS $3.80
BCE, Inc. (BCE) – consensus EPS $0.62
Baxter (BAX) – consensus EPS $0.52
Boeing (BA) – consensus EPS $1.93
DTE Energy (DTE) – consensus EPS $1.55
Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) – consensus EPS $0.96
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) – consensus EPS $0.45
General Dynamics (GD) – consensus EPS $2.32
Hershey Foods (HSY) – consensus EPS $1.25
Ingersoll-Rand (IR) – consensus EPS $0.53
NASDAQ (NDAQ) – consensus EPS $1.06
Norfolk Southern (NSC) – consensus EPS $1.35
Northrop Grumman (NOC) – consensus EPS $2.92
Oshkosh Corp. (OSK) – consensus EPS $0.75
Owens Corning (OC) – consensus EPS $0.59
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) – consensus EPS $0.96
Pepsi (PEP) – consensus EPS $0.91
Procter & Gamble (PG) – consensus EPS $0.94
Seagate Technology (STX) – consensus EPS $1.07
State Street (STT) – consensus EPS $1.10
Twitter (TWTR) – consensus EPS $0.01
United Technologies (UTX) – consensus EPS $1.40
Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) – consensus EPS $1.11
Earnings After Markets Close
Axis Capital (AXS) – consensus EPS $1.00
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) – consensus EPS $1.69
Cincinnati Financial (CINF) – consensus EPS $0.74
F5 Networks (FFIV) – consensus EPS $1.97
FMC Technologies (FTI) – consensus EPS N/A
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – consensus EPS $0.61
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) – consensus EPS $2.89
Packaging Corp. (PKG) – consensus EPS $1.25
PayPal (PYPL) – consensus EPS $0.41
Suncor Energy (SU) – consensus EPS $0.24
Whiting Petroleum (WLL) – consensus EPS -$0.20
XL Group (XL) – consensus EPS $0.44
Debit Spread on the $SPX
#BuCS at the end. BTO May 3rd SPX 2415/2435 for $2.00
I’ll risk $1.00 on this trade, which possibly could make $18 if the SPX ends up at 2435 by May 3.
I don’t plan on holding it that long though. I may get out if tomorrow the market jumps again and it doubles in price. Low Probability big reward low risk trade.
#trading fees Had a good…
#trading fees
Had a good thing this week. Bonus for taking a class with theo trade (Don Kaufman) where they would hook you up with better fees at tos, > >> Options: $1 per contract no ticket charges or minimum fee
> >>
> >> Stock: $6.95 flat rate.
I have been with tos for many years and asked for lower rates with not much success.
Cost of class was 79.00 well worth it for me.
I have no affiliation with them etc….
Walter
$TLT Closing some #ShortCalls Bought…
$TLT Closing some #ShortCalls
Bought to close $TLT May 19 123 calls @ .82. Sold for 2.47 as a rollout (from April 122.50 calls) on 4/18. Net profit per contract of 1.23 for overall position including rollout.
I am also still short a May 120/124 strangle (120 puts had been rolled up from 116) that I will leave on for now but with a few more days of time decay (and TLT calming down) I will look to take that position off as well.
SPX Campaign Plus Close $SVXY Early
#spxcampaign
$SPX 5/5 2300/2350 BUPS @ 2.00
#vxxgame
$SVXY BTC 5/12 65 put @ .05 Sold 4/13 for .50
Earnings Gambling WYNN
#earnings
$WYNN STO 5/5 1o5/110 BUPS @ .60
$NUGT Closing position a couple months early
For near minimum value.
Bought to close $NUGT Jun 16 24 calls @ .03. Sold for 1.20 on 2/6.
$NUGT #ShortPuts #IRA – since…
$NUGT #ShortPuts #IRA – since I can’t short DUST Calls in this account to pair off with the DUST Put exposure, I’m going another way.
Sold NUGT May 26 2017 7.0 Puts @ 0.48
Sold NUGT Jun 2 2017 7.0 Puts @ 0.53
Sold NUGT Jun 16 2017 6.0 Puts @ 0.37
$DUST #ShortCalls – Sold DUST…
$DUST #ShortCalls – Sold DUST May 19 2017 45.0 Calls @ 0.65 with the stock at 33.50.
Paired with existing short puts. Highest available strike price.
$IWM Rolling the put side…
$IWM Rolling the put side of my May 130/140 strangle up
To capture additional premium (.61 credit)–
Rolled $IWM May 19 130 puts up to May 19 137 puts (25 delta).
Position is now a May 137/140 strangle for which I have now taken in a total of 3.37 in premium. If the Russell continues up I will roll the puts up again.
#Rollup
PEP earnings
#Earnings Slightly bullish #IronButterfly, since it worked for me last quarter. Usually only minor moves on earnings.
Sold to Open $PEP Apr 28th 112/115/118 IB for 1.85.
$SPX BeCS Closed
#SPX Campaign; Jeff, I decided to get rid of my BeCS. With the President revealing the Tax Reform tomorrow I thought that the market may jump another bunch of points up again.
I’ll wait until the VIX give us the green light to get back in.
Took a little loss but nothing to write home about. Still up nicely for the week.
$SPX
#SPX Campaign Jeff, Thanks for the VIX comment. With the morning gap up I elected to close my May 19th 2435/2455 BeCS for 1.70, a .70 loss sans commissions. I was filled when the SPX was @ 2387.21. I think I will wait for the week to play out before venturing back in. #
ANTM earnings
#Earnings Not a big mover on reports, and decent R/R.
Sold to Open $ANTM Apr 28th 165/170/175 #IronButterfly for 3.50. Max risk 1.50. Over last 12 earnings reports, Biggest UP move: 5.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.7%, Average move: 2.8%.
This trade is not taking into account the bullish trend. A better positioning might be around the 172.5or 175 strike, or broken-wing with bullish bias.
Closed TSLA and AMZN #BuPS…
Closed TSLA and AMZN #BuPS for 50% profit to avoid Thu earnings.
$DUST #ShortPuts #Rolldown – using…
$DUST #ShortPuts #Rolldown – using the drop in gold miners to do another roll on this position while taking a nice profit on the position I’m closing.
No way to predict where DUST will be on Friday.
Bought to close DUST Apr 28 2017 34.0 Puts/ Sold DUST May 26 2017 31.0 Puts @ 0.10 Credit.
Sliced another 10% off my strike price, which is now out of the money.
CMG earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $CMG Apr 28th 430/520 strangles for 2.505 (avg price). Over last 12 earnings reports, Biggest UP move: 11.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.3%, Average move: 6.8%. These strikes are -8.5% and +10.6% OTM respectively. Leaning bullish because that’s what the option prices are doing; despite being further from current price, the 520 call is going for twice the price of the 430 put.
#earningstraderepair GS April 17, back…
#earningstraderepair GS
April 17, back when the market was going to crash, I sold an iron fly, GS dropped, rolled the puts to May, closed them today, made 1.20 overall on all of the transactions.
The certainty of more upside
#VIXIndicator #Market
This is my last day of traveling so I do not have time to post statistics… you can see past posts by clicking on this: #VIXIndicator
The signal we are now building, VIX closes below the Fib 78.3% retracement, is a very reliable sign that the SPX will continue higher in the coming days. There have been over two dozen occurrences of this since 1999, and in all but one there was no significant pullback for multiple days or weeks.
I am stopping my self out of many call spreads and selling put spreads, some of the them ATM or NTM. I’ll post more stats on this later this week.
SVXY roll
#VXXgame #StrangleRoll Getting out of ATM and ITM SVXY call positions, one at a time…
Bought to close $SVXY Jun 16th 140 call for 12.75. Sold for 6.60 on Jan 20th
Sold to Open SVXY Jun 16th 135/155 strangle for 13.15
Also, BTC UVXY May 5th 40 call for .01. Sold for .75 on Apr 13th
$VXX #ShortCalls – Bought to…
$VXX #ShortCalls – Bought to close VXX May 12 2017 30.0 Calls @ 0.01. They won’t trade any lower.
Earnings before Open
3M Co. (MMM) – consensus EPS $2.06
AK Steel (AKS) – consensus EPS $0.15
AutoNation (AN) – consensus EPS $0.91
Baker Hughes (BHI) – consensus EPS -$0.21
Biogen (BIIB) – consensus EPS $5.00
Brinker International (EAT) – consensus EPS $0.85
Caterpillar (CAT) – consensus EPS $0.62
Coca Cola (KO) – consensus EPS $0.44
Corning (GLW) – consensus EPS $0.35
DuPont (DD) – consensus EPS $1.39
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) – consensus EPS $0.96
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) – consensus EPS $0.37
Freeport-McMoran (FCX) – consensus EPS $0.18
JetBlue Airways (JBLU) – consensus EPS $0.24
Lockheed Martin (LMT) – consensus EPS $2.79
McDonald’s (MCD) – consensus EPS $1.33
PulteGroup (PHM) – consensus EPS $0.29
S&P Global (SPGI) – consensus EPS $1.38
SAP AG (SAP) – consensus EPS $0.78
Valero Energy (VLO) – consensus EPS $0.63
Xerox Corp. (XRX) – consensus EPS $0.16
Earnings After Markets Close
AT&T (T) – consensus EPS $0.75
Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) – consensus EPS $0.46
Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) – consensus EPS $1.33
Capital One Financial (COF) – consensus EPS $1.97
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) – consensus EPS $1.26
Discover Financial Services (DFS) – consensus EPS $1.46
JBT Corp. (JBT) – consensus EPS $0.51
Juniper Networks (JNPR) – consensus EPS $0.42
Texas Instruments (TXN) – consensus EPS $0.83
Universal Health (UHS) – consensus EPS $2.07
Wipro (WIT) – consensus EPS $0.13
Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) – consensus EPS $0.96
Downside Warning was canceled Monday
#VIXIndicator is updated (click “Home/REFRESH” to keep right-hand column updated)
Volatility was crushed on Monday, dropping over 25% and closing below the VIX 78.6% Fib line to cancel the Downside Warning.
Tuesday’s first warning level 13.55 (25% above 2-day closing low), and 14.96 would establish a new Downside Warning. Alternatively, three consecutive closes below 11.32 will constitute an Upside Warning.
Trading brains
So it looks like most of the traders on this site have had similar trading journey’s. Start out trading some funds and stocks when younger. Realize it is a 50-50 game most of the time. Then try to trade directionally but really hard to predict the future all the time. Then get into options for the leverage and income and then finally realize the house always wins and selling options is how the professionals make big and steady money. Sure, may have to pay out the occasional lottery ticket but in the long run the casino/insurance company always wins. Good to be on the right side of the trade and glad to be here!! I will be picking some of your brains on these volatility trades.
SPX Campaign
$SPX STO 5/26 2465/2440 BECS @ 1.55 Thank you @jeffcp66
Closed early
$SPX BTC 5/5 2220/2245 @.15 89% profit
SVXY trades closed
#VXXGame After selling multiple options on volatility spikes, I usually prefer to close them for 80-95% of max profit rather than wait for expiration. So I put close orders on all short volatility positions today. These filled:
BTC SVXY May 19th 75 put for .12. Sold for 1.30 on Apr. 11
BTC SVXY May 12th 65 puts for .05. Sold for .60 on Apr 13th
$SPX
Sold May 19th 2435/2455 Bear call spread @ 1.00. Revisiting this to build my experience in placing and management. We shall see.
$TDG #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Bought…
$TDG #ShortPuts #FallingKnife – Bought to close 1 TDG May 19 2017 125.0 Put @ 0.05.
It won’t trade any lower and still has a month to run before expiration.
Originally sold only 1 month ago at 1.55.
SPX Trade
March 29th Sold 2 ea April 2275 Short puts @ 7.70
April 24th Bought 2 April 28th 2275 short puts @ 0.60
gain @ 92%
April 6th sold 2 ea May 5th 2270 short puts @ 7.40
April 24th bought 2 ea Mat 5th 2270 short puts @ 1.30
Gain 85%
April 6th sold 2 ea May 12th 2255 short puts @ 8.60
April 24th bought 2 ea Mat 12th 2255 short puts @ 2.30
Gain 71%
Closed out my April Options Month…when the gap up today fills to the down side,
I’ll sell my 2nd shorts against the existing longs..for the may trades..
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Apr 26th 2375/2400 call spreads for 7.00. Sold for 2.90 on Thursday. Was working on getting out as it pulled back in the last hour, but missed my fill and ended having to chase as it burst to a new high. Why does it so often work that way?
Will wait to roll this tomorrow. As of right now, it looks like the massive VIX drop will be ending the downside warning today.
# Thanks test
SPX chart updated
Long overdue because of travels, but just updated my positions. The minor market pullback got me out of all ITM call spreads. I’m now pressured on a couple expiring this week but will be rolling if we break 2375.
Be sure to click “Home/REFRESH” to keep your screen updated.
#SPXcampaign
I was thinking about selling…
I was thinking about selling some spy or /es strangles but with the vix back down to 11 will focus on individual names that have good vol and premiums.
My short list I watch every week is TSO, HAL, EOG, FSLR (falling knife), EXPE, DAL, AAL, WDC, SWKS, FB, BX, GS, GM (falling knife), JPM, GILD (falling knife) and CELG. Just watch the earnings dates, a lot of them are next week. You can typically make 1.00 several strikes OTM with these with only 1 week out.
$UVXY within pennies of new…
$UVXY within pennies of new all time low. Wow, did this thing get crushed. I tried to put some trades on at the open before a complete collapse could occur but couldn’t get any fills for a decent premium.
#shortputs UVXY Sold May 19…
#shortputs UVXY
Sold May 19 13 put for .56, bought a 10 put for .o3
#BuPS BTC NFLX 135/125 BuPS…
#BuPS
BTC NFLX 135/125 BuPS for $0.59 Sold on Thu for $1.60
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX May 5th 2230/2205 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on Apr 7.
RGLD position closed
#Earnings #Gold This was an earnings trade gone bad… assigned with an 85.00 cost basis back in August, stock dropped to 60 a couple times… finally put a trail stop on it and the final batch closed today. I don’t tend to wait forever for recovery on these assignments. My mistake was not putting stops on the stock at the beginning, since it did recover into profit territory briefly. Dividends and covered calls brought my cost basis down to the high 70’s… average stock sale around 69.00.
